Where Does The Housing Market Go From Here?

Where does the housing market go from here?

A few charts and observations that suggests that something has to give in the not to distance future.

There has never been a bigger disconnect between buying and renting.

Credit: https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1695666793379958985

History has shown that this disconnect will self correct.

The monthly cost of a house has to come down or rents have to increase. Equilibrium is the natural state.

The biggest problem in housing is that the costs of ownership are outstripping the ability of most households to pay.

The median sales price of a house was 150% of real median household income in 1984.

It is now over 550% of income.

Credit: https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1696174044171862399

Values can only be supported if there are people who have the money and income to pay the price of a home or afford the monthly payment.

You get some perspective on how far we have gotten off of a sustainable path with housing costs by considering that we need incomes to spike by 69% or home prices to fall by 41% to bring us back to pre-pandemic affordability.

We could also get there if mortgage rates fell to sub-3% levels again.

What is most troubling is that the affordability index adjustments that are necessary in the United States to get back to pre-Covid levels are even greater than in other major countries right now.

I was surprised to see that the United States is the country that has seen its housing market get the most out of whack since 2019. 

However, it is true that the United States had much more affordable housing than almost all other developed countries prior to 2020. Note above that the U.S. was rated 14 on the affordability index pre-Covid while Canada was rated 25, Australia 32 and Korea and New Zealand were 35.

The U.S. is still more affordable than all of these other countries today but the gap has narrowed.

It could be that the U.S. is not going to return to anything that resembles where it was pre-Covid. Housing costs may have been permanently altered at a higher level relative to household incomes.

The one thing that is sustaining housing prices despite the large increase in mortgage interest rates right now is the fact that there are so few houses on the market.

There are fewer houses listed for sale in the United States than at any time in the last 20 years with the exception of April, 2020 when Covid brought the housing market to a halt.

New listings fell 31% compared to a year earlier.

Source: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-june-2023/

Few homeowners are willing to sell and give up a low interest rate mortgage to move up to a house which would carry a higher interest rate and monthly mortgage costs.

Almost 2/3 of homeowners have a mortgage rate below 4%. 91% have a rate below 6%.

Mortgage rates are now higher than they have been at any time in the last 20 years.

Not many homeowners are willing to trade a 4% mortgage rate for a 7%.

The residential real estate market is hovering on the brink of locking up.

Supply is shrinking because existing homeowners don't want to sell because of the low rates they enjoy right now.

Demand is under stress because the high rates are putting more and more houses outside the reach of new entrants into the market.

For now, the limited supply of houses is sustaining the value of homes as demand is still exceeding demand.

What happens if both supply and demand erode even more?

Due to the low unemployment rate and the fact that most homeowners have mortgage rates below 4%, serious delinquencies are very low right now.

What if more people start to be laid off?

Who knows where the housing market goes from here?

Are we going to have to get used to paying substantially more for housing than we have been accustomed to?

Are we going to see rental rates increase substantially in the near future to better match the increase in monthly homeowner costs?

Or will we see monthly home ownership costs start to fall?

This can only occur if mortgage rates and/or home values decline.

All of these scenarios are possible to bring about better equilibrium between home costs and rental rates.

The one thing that most certainly will not occur is a 69% increase in household incomes in the near term.

That you can count on. Everything else is a possibility.

Forgotten Because of Politics?

How many of these natural disasters have you heard about?

The Great Chicago Fire of 1871.

The sinking of the RMS Titanic in 1912.

Hindenberg Disaster in 1937.

MGM Grand fire in Las Vegas in 1980.

Eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980

Hyatt Regency walkway collapse in Kansas City in 1981.

Los Angeles Northridge Earthquake in 1994

The Station nightclub fire in Rhode Island in 2003

Hurricane Sandy in 2012

Oklahoma tornado outbreak of 2013 centered in Moore, OK

Northern California wildfires in 2017.

Hurricane Ian which hit Florida's gulf coast in 2022.

Do you know how many died in these disasters?

200-300 estimate   Chicago Fire

238        RMS Titanic (U.S. citizens)

36          Hindernberg  

85          MGM Grand Fire

57          Mt, St. Helens

114        Hyatt Regency

57          Northridge Earthquake

100        Station nightclub fire

158        Hurricane Sandy

30          Oklahoma tornados

44          Northern California wildfires

161        Hurricane Ian

In the recent Lahaina fire in Maui, Hawaii 115 people have thus far been officially pronounced dead from the flames,

Over two weeks after the fire more than 1,100 were still reported missing and unaccounted for in addition to the 115 official casualties.

Late last week the missing person list was revised down to 388 without any real change in the death count. This was reported as due to people on the list being found and duplicates on the list.

However, we are now three weeks out from the fires.

What are the chances that those remaining 388 missing souls will be found alive?

If they are not, we are looking at over 500 deaths from this fire.

Even if half are found alive, the death toll from the Maui fires will be greater than any of the high profile natural disasters on the list above.

You may recall that Joe Biden said he had "no comment" when asked about the Maui fire when he was asked about it when vacationing at a Delaware beach several days after the blaze.

Source:https://www.allsides.com/news/2023-08-14-1222/politics-vacationing-biden-says-he-has-no-comment-nearly-100-dead-devastating

No comment?

Of course, Biden made it worse when he visited Maui to show his "empathy"and ended up comparing their losses to the fact that he almost lost his beloved 1967 Corvette due to a small kitchen fire at his home years ago.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-blasted-comparing-kitchen-fire-home-devastating-maui-blaze-absolutely-disgusting

The Maui fire death toll could end up easily being one of the top 10 natural disasters in the last 100 years.

I can recall the media attention for many of the disasters that I listed above.

However, it does not seem to me that the Maui fire is getting anywhere near the same attention in the news that some of these other disasters did.

This is where the Google Trends feature comes in handy, at least involving major news events since 2004.

For example, compare the mentions involving Hurricane Ian last year to the Maui fire.

The Maui fire is barely is a blip on the radar. compared to the hurricane coverage.

Or compare Hurricane Sandy to the Maui fire.

Yes, there is more news to play out on the Maui fire as the full death counts becomes known.

However, why is the media attention so muted compared to these other disasters?

Is it because Maui is so far away?

Could it be because the media is trying to cover for Biden's out of touch responses to the tragedy?

Is it because FEMA is actively trying to suppress news about the Maui fires?

Like so many things today, there are more questions than answers.

The fire in Maui was an immense tragedy.

I hope and pray that its victims will not soon be forgotten because of politics.

Ten Lessons on College Life

Many students around the Untied States are beginning their life in college at this time.

25 years ago this week Mrs. BeeLine and I dropped off our first child at college.

It is not easy for any parent to do.

When we on the way to Miami University in Oxford, Oho to get our daughter situated in her dorm room I gave her some advice in the form of "Ten Lessons on College Life."

I happened to come across it this week in my files.

The advice seems to have stood the test of time even a quarter of century later.

What has not stood the test of time very well is the cost of a college education. I told my daughter that every hour she was in class was costing us about $40.

That cost is approaching $140 per hour of class time now at the same school today.

In that so much of college costs are.now financed by student loans, that carry interest on top of that loan cost, it is more important than ever that students make the most of their college experience.

Here is the advice I gave to my children. 

I am sharing it on BeeLine in the hope that it might help a student you know start their college experience (and their life) in the best possible way.

Feel free to modify it as makes sense for a college student you would like to help get established on the right path.

Ten Lessons on College Life

(originally written on August 21, 1998)

1

College is a fantastic opportunity and experience.  There is much to do and much to learn both in and out of the classroom.  Have fun but remember that you are there for an education first and foremost.  Make sure that this is always your first priority. We are making a major investment in you.  We expect a return on our investment.  Good jobs and good graduate schools will only go to the top students at Miami.  

2

Always go to class.  The easiest way to get in trouble with your grades is to skip class.  Every class hour is costing us close to $40.  The easiest way to succeed is to go to every class, listen intently and take copious notes.  Professors almost never test on things that they haven’t gone over in class.  These are the things that they deem most important.  Take good notes and study them thoroughly before every test.  This is the single easiest way to be on the right track in college from the start.

3

Be disciplined with your time.  Have a purpose in everything you do.  Don’t waste time doing unproductive things.   There is time to do a lot of things if you manage your time and priortize.  Remember, even if you spend 8 hours a day with class and studying you still have 16 hours for other things. You should also remember that there is almost nothing that happens after midnight that is productive or will result in a positive outcome for you.  Stay on top of your studies everyday as in most courses you will have only 2 or 3 exams the entire semester.  You will not be able to read all the material and learn it the night before. 

4

Try to have a smile on your face all the time.  People like positive people who have good senses of humor.   Be friendly to everyone and work at complimenting others as much as possible.  When speaking to others, use their name often in conversing with them as people like to hear their name coming from your lips because it makes them feel as if they are valued and important you.  These are keys to winning friends and influencing people, especially members of the opposite sex. 

5

Be a leader.  Take the initiative in everything you do.  Be the first one to volunteer an answer in class.  Be the first person in your corridor who knows everybody.  Be known as someone who is a mover and a shaker who can be counted on and wants to be involved in making things better for everyone

6

Work on developing a network of friends, colleagues and teachers who like and respect you.  The friendships and connections you make in college will serve you well and can form the basis for success and happiness over your entire lifetime.  You will never have a better opportunity for developing the roots of this network system because the seeds of this experience will be sown far and wide from Miami.  Take  full advantage of the opportunity while it exists.

7

Take advantage of all the opportunities that exist to explore new things at college.  Don’t be afraid to take different courses, attend off-beat lectures or try something different.  College is a chance to explore so that you can better discover who you are and what you really like.  Heretofore, your range of experience has been limited to a small universe largely controlled by us.  Now is the time to decide for yourself want you like and want you want to be.

8

Do not get involved with drugs or with people who use them.  Not only are they illegal and could end up tainting your life forever, they almost always result in a diminished capacity to do things you need to do to be successful.  Drugs are used by losers.  Steer clear of anything to do with them!

9

Do not abuse alcohol.  There will be many opportunities to partake in alcohol in college but beware of its effects on you and others. It can be very dangerous if not used responsibly.  Steer clear and get away from any boy who has had too much to drink.  Your safety could be jeopardized. If you must imbide, do so responsibly as it can seriously impair your judgment and cause you much personal harm as well.

10

Beginning college represents the one time in life where you have total control of your life.  You have complete control to shape your life.  You have no constraints.  Your friends, your career, your interests, your entire life is in your hands to shape it in any way you choose.  You will never again have such freedom because as you move forward in life the choices you make begin to narrow your flexibility and your ability to totally control your own destiny.  Accordingly, make wise choices and don’t just go with the  flow.   Do things you enjoy.   Having so many options can be scary but as long as you follow the advice we have given you we are certain that any path you take will be secure, happy and successful.  Remember that we are here to help you if you need guidance along the way. First and foremost, we love you and always will. That’s one thing you can always count on.  Best of luck as you begin your own life!

Who Knows Where This Goes?

If you doubt that we live in a world unlike anything we have seen before in the United States consider this headline.

Prosecutors want Trump on trial fast because they fear he might be reelected and thwart their cases?

Step back for a moment and consider the import of this.

The basic principle underlying our legal system is that guilt or innocence is determined by a jury of your peers.

What better jury pool is there than a vote of the people of the United States?

If Donald Trump is truly guilty of the crimes that he has been charged with why would prosecutors not trust the ultimate jury?

If he is guilty as charged why would there even be a question about the possibility he could be reelected?

Doesn't this say a lot about what these prosecutions are all about?

Are these criminal or political prosecutions?

I don't say this as a Trump apologist.

I am not in favor of Trump being the Republican nominee in 2024.

I believe the Republicans would be better served with a younger candidate and someone who doesn't carry all the baggage Trump does.

This is especially true if Joe Biden is not on the ballot in November, 2024 which I believe is more likely than not. In that case, we are likely to see a much younger Democrat candidate than Trump.

As I see it right now, even if Trump wins the general election, I believe he will have an enormously difficult job in governing.

How is he going to serve the American people if he has to deal with all of these distractions?

Who is going to be willing to serve in his cabinet and in his administration?

Even with Trump's force of personality, we saw the last time how hard it is to change things in D.C, considering how strongly entrenched the bureaucracy and establishment is.

All that being said, it is hard to argue with the the impact and success that Trump had as President.

There was no President in my lifetime who was as consistent in following through with his campaign promises when he became President as Trump.

There was no bait and switch.

Trump governed exactly as he said he would.

He also did all these things as he was constantly under attack with the fake Russian collusion story and with Republicans in Congress who were not exactly jumping up and down to support him.

He said he would destroy ISIS.

He did.

He said he would stem the flood of illegal immigrants into the country.

He did.

He said he would take the United States out of the Paris Climate Accord.

He did.

He said he would push the other NATO countries pay their fair share in defense expenditures.

He did.

He said he would make the United States energy independent.

He did.

H said we would renegotiate NAFTA.

He did.

He said he would implement a tariff on goods from China.

He did.

He said he would revive the U.S. economy.

He did.

He said he would move the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

He did.

For good measure he negotiated peace accords between several Middle Eastern countries and Israel and opened up a dialogue with North Korea.

However, there was one promise that he did fail to deliver on.

He said he was going to appoint a special prosecutor to look into potential crimes by Hillary Clinton.

He said he was going to "lock her up".

He did not.

Trump thought he was being the bigger man. He saw it as a gesture of unity and healing not to put Hillary under an investigative microscope after he won.

Unfortunately, Trump has come to learn that the other side does not play by the same rules.

The latest ad that the Never Back Down PAC (that supports Ron DeSantis) has produced chronicles the history of Trump and Hillary on this issue..

I am sure that Trump would like to forget that he ever said to forget about looking into Hillary's crimes.

(Click here if the video does not play with your browser.)

The first consequential event on whether Donald Trump will be the GOP 2024 nominee for President occurs tonight with the initial debate among the major Republican contenders.

Trump will not be there.

His 50 point lead in the latest polls suggests to him and his advisers that there is nothing to gain by appearing at the event.

He has chosen to do a counter-event on X (Twitter) with Tucker Carlson.

I understand the political calculus that Trump is relying on in skipping the debate.

 However, I don't think it will serve him well in the long run.

I will be watching the debate on the Fox News Channel.  I have no interest in seeing Trump. I will learn nothing from watching him again.

I believe I will learn much more about whether any of Trump's challengers are worthy of the challenge to be faced in 2024 by watching the debate.

My belief is that Trump will regret his decision to not participate in the debates.

I predict that at some point we will see him on the stage.

Trump's personality makes it hard to stay away.

In addition, if you are ultimately going to run against someone who will try to avoid debating at all costs (Biden), how do you maintain the high moral ground if you are unwilling to get in the arena as well?

We are at the beginning of some very interesting months.

The headline above provides a hint at just how interesting it may get.

Are we ready for a couple of trials going on at the same time that people are voting on Super Tuesday?

Who knows where this goes?

We will find out together.

The TransAlaska Pipeline

While I was in Alaska recently I made it a point to visit a portion of the TransAlaska oil pipeline.

These are pictures I took of a portion of the pipeline I visited just north of Fairbanks.

The pipeline runs 800 miles from Prudhoe Bay on the North Slope to Valdez on Prince William Sound.

It crosses three mountain ranges and over 800 rivers and streams.

The pipeline is a true engineering marvel that I found to be in remarkably great shape considering it is almost 50 years old.

The portion I visited was elevated due to the permafrost layer in the ground in that area but many portions the pipeline are underground.

Source: https://anupma-prakash.github.io/treasure-hunt-alaska/ch5/info_pipeline.html

The pipeline was constructed in the mid-1970's but not until surviving numerous protests and legal challenges from environmental groups.

A major argument of the groups was that the pipeline would disrupt traditional migration patterns of the Caribou population in the state.

Contrary to concerns, the Central Arctic Caribou herd which inhabits the area nearest to the pipeline,  grew from less than 5,000 in the mid-1970's to over 67,000  by 2008.

Some have argued that the Caribou liked the warmth of the pipeline in the winter and it has contributed to more reproduction. However, this is an unproven theory.

Whatever the reason, the doomsayers were wrong as they so often are.

We saw a number of Caribou while in Alaska. This is one we saw while in central Alaska.

The total population of Caribou in the state is now estimated to be 750,000-900,000.

That is greater than the human population in Alaska.

What is troubling about the pipeline right now is that it is only being used to about 25% of capacity.

It is designed to be capable of transporting over 2 million barrels of oil per day.

The pipeline actually transported 2.1 million barrels of oil per day in 1988.

It recently has been utilized for less than 500,000 barrels per day.

The fact that we have the resources and infrastructure in the United States to do so much more in regards to energy production but have a political class who consciously ignore it is unprecedented in human history.

Sitting adjacent to Prudhoe Bay in Alaska are the ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge) oil reserves that the U.S. Geologic Survey has estimated contains between 4.3 and 11.8 billion barrels of oil.

The TransAlaska pipeline could also be easily utilized to transport this oil to market.

The oil development area at ANWR is miniscule in relationship to the total area of ANWR.

We are talking about a footprint of 2,000 acres compared to a total area the size of the state of South Carolina.

Yet the Democrats and the environmental extremists want to block all oil projects here and everywhere else in the United States.

The coastal plain area along the Beaufort Sea is one of the most inhospitable and uninhabitable places on earth for human beings.

It is 250  miles north of the Arctic Circle. There is practically no daylight during the winter months. The HIGH temperature during the winter is usually between -2 and -10 degrees. Over 85% of the days of the year are overcast.

Source: https://mustreadalaska.com/blm-to-offer-entire-coastal-plain-of-anwr-for-energy-leases/

The Trump administration put oil leases in ANWR up for sale in the waning days of his Presidency. but Biden has worked to shut that effort down. In addition, what oil company wants to risk billions of dollars of investment in those oil fields when Biden has threatened oil executives with prosecution for drilling for oil?

Remember when Biden said this when he was running for President?

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7837265/We-jail-Biden-wants-prosecute-fossil-fuel-executives-environment-damage.html

It should come as no surprise that crude oil and gasoline prices have risen substantially during the Biden administration while falling while Trump was President.

U.S. Regular All Formulations Gas Price
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW

Biden's answer to creating more oil supply is to attempt to get Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members to pump more and to raid our Strategic Petroleum Reserve to attempt to rein in gasoline prices.

Over 275 million barrels of oil have been taken out of the SPR in the last two years.

At current consumption rates, the SPR only holds a 20-day cover if there was a real supply disruption. The SPR has not such sparse reserves since 1983.

With the ability to pump an additional 1.5 million barrels of oil per day through the TransAlaska Pipeline none of this would have been necessary. 

Twice the amount of oil taken out of the SPR in two years could have been produced in the United States in just one year from Alaska alone.

It is just one more thing that makes no sense whatsoever.

Add to the list is how we have now learned that the man in charge of water management in Maui refused to release water to firefighters to fight the blaze for five hours.

Fire is overwhelming the village of Lahaina, people are dying, and this man did not immediately approve water to fight the inferno?

During a debate last year on water management the same official argued that water usage should be allocated based on "equity". He argued that it should not be something we share or use but something that should be "revered" and which "equity" should be considered when it is allocated for use.

Link: https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1692991470121197916

I wish I was making this up.

Yes, the environment needs to be protected and valued.

Yes, we need to be prudent about our use of the resources that God has provided us.

However, those resources were provided to us on this planet to allow humans to survive, prosper and multiply.

To see the wonderful resources that are accessible and readily available to better mankind and the United States of America sitting there in Alaska underutilized is beyond disappointing and disheartening. 

When the environment and climate becomes a "religion" and a "god" upon which we worship to the exclusion of mankind and God, the creator of all things, we are in deep, deep trouble.

Friends, this is where we are.

At times like these it is more important than ever to trust the Word.

Then God said, “Let us make man in our image, after our likeness. And let them have dominion over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the heavens and over the livestock and over all the earth and over every creeping thing that creeps on the earth.” So God created man in his own image, in the image of God he created him; male and female he created them. And God blessed them. And God said to them, “Be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth and subdue it, and have dominion over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the heavens and over every living thing that moves on the earth.

                                                                                       -Genesis 1;26-28, ESV 

History Is Not Always Kind

This week marks the third anniversary of Joe Biden's disastrous debacle that surrounded his withdrawal and abandonment of Afghanistan to the Taliban.

Do you remember the headlines?

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/08/16/taliban-takes-afghanistan-kabul-airport-last-stand-u-s/8147419002/

Source: https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/chaos-desperation-at-kabul-airport-as-biden-defends-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2021/08/27/us-service-members-killed-kabul-airport-names/

The meme below takes us back to that same week in history to remind us of how things were on other fronts three years ago.

What happened, indeed.

This isn't half of it.

This was also all before we ended up with mandates for a vaccine that did not work as advertised, collusion between government and media companies to censor and silence free speech that did not conform to an approved narrative and a fully weaponized Department of Justice was turned lose on political opponents that prompted Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) to make this remark this week.

Of course,  this weaponization has just not been deployed against Trump.

It has also included parents who spoke at School Board meetings who opposed school shutdowns, doctors who advocated alternative Covid treatments and grandmothers who walked into the Capital on January 6 after being waved through the doors by the Capital Hill police.

Seeing where we were three years ago and where we are today you would think that the people running all of this would be feeling some heat.

You would think that even a few true believers in Biden's own party might be having some doubts about Biden's proficiency and performance. 

You would be wrong.

Believe it or not, Joe Biden actually has a higher approval rating with Democrats right now than Barack Obama did at the same time in his Presidency.

The most recent Gallup poll shows that Joe Biden has an 86% approval rating with Democrats.

Source: https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx

Barack Obama only had a 77% approval rating with Democrats at the same time in his first term.

Source: https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx

That is a little sobering to consider, isn't it?

Democrats are clearly very pleased with Joe Biden. 

They apparently were not as enthralled with Obama's attempts at sweet talking or trying to pretend he was playing to the middle.

Democrats appear to be more than pleased with Biden's "ram it down their throats" style of politics and don't see the need to make any apologies for it.

Give us what we want with executive orders.

The hell with compromise with Republicans in Congress.

Let's threaten to prosecute everybody that does not agree with us.

Make no mistake. Not every voter is buying what they are seeing. Joe Biden has problems when he gets beyond the party faithful.

Joe Biden is sitting at a 40% overall approval rating in the latest Gallup poll with all adults.

This is due to a 38% rating from Independents and and a meager 2% from Republicans.

Source: https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx

However, this overall approval rating only trails Obama by 2 points at the same time in the first term of each in the Gallup poll.

Source: https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx

 

In the Rasmussen Presidential daily tracking poll, Obama had a 43% approval rating on August 17, 2011 (just slightly less than three years into his first term).

Biden is at 45% approval at the same point in his Presidency in the Rasmussen poll today.

Trump was at 46% approval at the same time.

Source: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/prez_track_aug17

Yes, it is hard to believe that Joe Biden has a higher approval right now than Barack Obama did considering what has been unleashed in the last three years.

Obama recovered in the polls to win another term. History has been kind to him. Will that always be true?

History is not always kind.

When all of this plays out it is not going to be kind to someone.

History is either not going to be kind to the United States of America due to leaders with records like Joe Biden being left in office.

Or history is not going to be kind to those who have seen all that this man has done in his three years in office and yet still blindly approve of what he is doing.

Perhaps both.

We are living in a very dangerous and consequential time in history.

And history is not always kind.

Glaciers and Lahaina

I recently returned from a trip that saw me spend almost two weeks in Alaska.

The trip included visits to both Glacier Bay National Park and the College Fjord glaciers.

Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

Margerie Glacier, Glacier Bay National Park
The face of that glacier is over 300 feet high

Harvard Glacier, College Fjord, Alaska

Of course, you can't look at any of these glaciers without a National Park Ranger or someone else remarking that the glaciers are receding because of "human-induced climate change".

There is an argument to be made that the climate may have warmed over the last 30 years but where is the evidence that it is "human-induced"?

For example, this is an image taken from the brochure that the National Park Service provides to visitors to Glacier Bay National Park.

This was in my hand as I was listening to the park ranger tell me that the glaciers were receding due to "human-induced" climate change.

The brochure shows the recent history (the last several hundred years) of the glaciers in the park.

Source: Glacier Bay Visitor Brochure
National Park Service

Notice that glacier size increased dramatically in the 70 years between 1680 and 1750 during what is often referred to as the "Little Ice Age" period.

The next 130 years (1750-1880) saw the glacier receding at an enormous pace.

Of course, this is a period when there was almost no fossil fuel activity caused by man.

There has been additional glacial recession in the succeeding 145 years until today but it is minimal in comparison to what has been seen previously,

For example, this is a graphic shot from the same Glacier Bay National Park brochure referenced above which shows the positions of individual glaciers at various points of time.

I have added the red highlights to the image so as to make what occurred with the glacier to be more readable.

Much of what is now called Glacier Bay today would not exist without the decline and melting of the glacier formation that took place in the 19 years between 1860-1879.

The main glacier receded 25 miles in just 19 years---more than 1 mile per year---when humans and fossil fuels could not possibly have been responsible in the slightest for the warming of the climate.

Any decline in the glaciers today is measured in feet per year and we are told it is "human-induced"?

Can you imagine the hue and cry if we were seeing this type of decline in these glaciers today and what it would be attributed to?

It is actually quite remarkable how pervasive the climate change propaganda narrative is used day in and day out without any regard to the facts.

And with almost no challenge based on real facts.

Instead, we hear about models.projections and forecasts. 

There is almost no one that ever looks at the historical record or actual facts.

The narrative is everything and it is clearly being used in support of a political agenda.

For example, consider this suburban Philadelphia weather forecast for August 9-18 that I saw recently.

74 degrees in August is VERY HOT?

Source: https://twitter.com/phillyrich1/status/1689228195243962369

Notice the use of the cactus to symbolize those extreme temps in suburban Philly. Nice touch!

Of course, with the tragic wildfire in Lahaina on the island of Maui in Hawaii last week we see once again that the opinion makers cannot miss the opportunity to let a crisis go to waste.

You can count on the The New York Times in times like this.

Has climate change turned lush Hawaii into a tinderbox of late?

That statement is not be supported by actual data that is collected and reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor time series.

It actually shows that Hawaii has recently been in one the the best periods it has been regrarding drought  conditions in the summer period looking back to the year 2000.

 

Source: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

The data does show that Maui was drier than many other areas of Hawaii recently.

However, there were no parts of Maui that were considered high risk drought areas (drought levels 3 or 4) the week of August 8.in 2023

Compare that to last year when almost 30% of Maui was in drought levels 3 or 4 at the same time.

This is all due to recent climate developments?

How about the summer of 2000 on Maui when the entire island was in drought conditions and two-thirds of it were levels 3 or 4?

I was in Lahaina, Maui last exactly seven years ago this week.

I took this photo of the giant banyan tree that graced the seaside park near the center of town at that time.

Banyan Tree, Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii, August, 2016

The tree is still standing after last week's inferno although it was charred and traumatized by the flames.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maui-wildfires-lahaina-banyan-tree-standing-hawaii/

Arborists expressed hope that it will generate new growth and produce buds on its branches according to a CBS News Report.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green told CBS News the tree is "still breathing" and is absorbing water and producing sap, just not as much as it usually does. 

"It's like a burn victim itself," Green said. "Traumatized, much like the town." 

Yes, trees need water to survive. A big tree like that also needs sunlight.

However, what they need most is carbon dioxide.

That is the same thing that the climate change crazies want to massively reduce from our environment.

However, trees, vegetation and crops do not grow without CO2. 

For example, this little graphic shows the effect CO2 has on the growth of rice.

Credit: https://twitter.com/_ClimateCraze/status/1691076561611419648

This is the reason that many greenhouses that grow plants and vegetables pump carbon dioxide into the enclosure to accelerate growth.

How much of the earth's atmosphere is currently composed of carbon dioxide?

.04%.

Source: https://www.worldatlas.com/environment/how-much-carbon-dioxide-is-in-the-atmosphere.html

What is the latest scheme that Joe Biden and his climate alarmists want to do to stop climate change?

They are in the process of spending $3.7 billion of your tax dollars in a plan to vacuum carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and then store it.

Source:https://www.energy.gov/articles/biden-harris-administration-announces-37-billion-kick-start-americas-carbon-dioxide

Why?

I guess when crops start failing and trees begin to die they can then turn on the spigot and save us all.

Would it not be ironic if that banyan tree in Maui survived the fire but dies in the end due to a lack of CO2?

Undoubtedly, that would also be blamed on "human-induced climate change".

That is also what the Democrat Governor of Hawaii has placed the blame for the Maui fire on.

How could it be anything else?

Never mind that the local fire department left a small brush fire caused by a downed electrical wire claiming that it was 100% contained. It wasn't. 

Winds came off of the Maui mountains and whipped the smoldering embers into the inferno it became. Most citizens did not even receive a warning to evacuate from the the spread of the fire from government authorities. As a result, many were trapped to face the fire with no place to go.

Was it climate change or a government that failed the people?

Believe me when I tell you that we are living in a world day in which facts, reason, logic and any understanding of meteorological or human history mean nothing compared to the importance of the current political agenda.

Look no further than those glaciers I recently saw and the tragedy in Lahaina.