Friday, December 29, 2023

The Best of BeeLine---2023

Here is a Top 11 List for the Best of BeeLine for 2023. The first five are the most popular posts I wrote during the year based on the number of views. The second six are a few of my personal favorites out of the 121 blog posts I wrote during the year. 

If you missed reading these "Best of BeeLine" posts the first time around, here is another opportunity to get on "the shortest route to what you need to know" to start 2024 off right. 

You might also consider forwarding this post to friends who might appreciate a blog that tries to put some of the complicated issues of the day in context informed with data and facts. I enjoy writing BeeLine but it is a lot easier to sit down, research and write when I know more are reading what I write. I don't promote or advertise this blog. New readers almost always come from one of you passing it along to someone else.

The number of page views of BeeLine more than doubled in 2023 compared to 2022. Thanks to all of you who contributed to that growth by forwarding blog posts to others, posting a link on social media or recommending BeeLine to a friend.

If you want to make sure you don't miss a post, consider putting yourself on the BeeLine email list. You will receive an email of the blog whenever I put up another post. 

You can sign up in the upper right hand corner on the web page (Link to web home page is here). You need to be viewing the web version to do this as this feature does not show up on your phone. You will receive a follow-up email (from Follow.it) that you will need to confirm to begin delivery. 

The Best of BeeLine-2023 list is below with pull quotes from each of the posts to give you a better idea about what is contained therein.

Thank you to all my loyal BeeLine readers and a Happy New Year to each one of you!

The Best of BeeLine---2023

The Most Popular Based on Views

Worse Than Watergate     May 17, 2023

The release of the final Durham report this week demonstrates that something far, far worse than Watergate has been going on in Washington, D.C.

Watergate was mere child's play compared to all of this.

This did not involve just "All The President's Men".

We had a President, a Vice President, Director of the CIA, Director of the FBI, the media establishment and the D.C. establishment all working to subvert the will of the American people.

It is nothing less than the most brazen abuse of our Constitutional principles and subversion of our republic's democratic foundations in American history.

Yes, this is many times worse than Watergate.


Dramatically Disconnected      January 9, 2023

There is a huge difference in what the coastal elites believe people should be interested in and what they actually are interested in.

To hear the elites talk about it, you would think that everybody is tuning into CNN or MSNBC to get the news.

When it comes to cable tv viewing the odds were high that Americans were watching Fox News or ESPN more than anything else in the last year.



There is so much that people do not know, or have been given misinformation about, concerning Israel and Palestine.

Without knowledge of the most basic facts it is difficult to have views or opinions that are both principled and credible.

Let's consider five things that most don't know about Israel/Palestine.


Israel, Islam and the Bible      November 3, 2023

There are only 15 million Jews in the entire world.

Almost half of them live in Israel on a tiny strip of earth that for much of history nobody cared much about.

There are 1.8 billion Muslims in the world.

I continue to find it astounding how it is that 1.8 billion Muslims (and a great number of non-Muslims) cannot get along with a mere 15 million Jews on our big, beautiful, diverse planet?

Why is that?

What is also further befuddling is how a group of people (Palestinians) that almost no one ever heard anything about until the last few generations can cause so much disruption and noise about a small strip of land on the northern coast of Africa?


Bringing Education Into the 21st Century          May 22, 2023

Technology and innovation have disrupted scores of industries over the last 50 years.

Newspapers. Network television. Landline telephones. Film and music distribution. Photography. Taxis. Retail shopping. The list is endless.

There is one glaring exception when it comes to a major industry that has not been disrupted.

EDUCATION.

Primary and secondary education has not advanced much over the last century.


A Few of My Personal Favorites


Heightened Expectations          August 14, 2023

I recently came across some interesting data on the dating preferences of females regarding male height.

Almost 90% of women are willing to consider a guy who is 6'6" tall.

However, only 60% are willing to consider a 6 footer.

Losing one inch to 5'11' cuts the number of women who are interested down to 30%.

Only 15% of women are interested in men who are 5'8'' or 5'9".

The problem is that this is right at the average height level of American men.



We hear a lot about how executive compensation for CEO's is out of control and unwarranted.

It is argued that it is inequitable that so few individuals can earn so much.

30 CEO's of the 500 companies that are in the S&P 500 index on the New York Stock Exchange made at least $30 million last year. 

By contrast, here is the list of NBA players who made at least $30 million this past season.

It numbers 39.


Can We Fool Mother Nature?    February 16, 2023

There is a lot of talk about gender these days.

It has become popular to state that gender is nothing but a social construct.

Nature, biology or anything beyond what a person feels or believes about their gender is invalid.

We are being told what to believe. However, evidence to the contrary is all around us.

Is it really true that there are no differences between male and females that are hard-wired from birth?


A Cloudless Future?      September 14, 2023

Would it surprise you to know that all of the famous climate models that are being used to predict rising future temperatures assume that there will be no clouds in the future?

In other words, despite the fact that clouds have been a mainstay in our weather and climate since the beginning of time on earth, the models that are being used assume the future will be cloudless.

Is it any wonder you could show a global temperature increase of a couple degrees in a climate model if you assumed a cloudless future compared to a world in which clouds cover a portion of the earth every day?



When will American become the central identifier of everyone? 

The question that the American people need to answer is whether we believe that this is better achieved by tearing things down and casting blame on others or building on the positives, working cooperatively to fix the negatives and all of us spending more time looking inwards on what we can do to improve the lives of everyone.

Those things are not easily done nor is ignoring the media narratives that feed a lot of the divisions we see in our society today.


Supreme Thoughts      July 12, 2023

Leftist Democrats melted down after the recent Supreme Court decisions on affirmative action and student debt cancellation.

The narrative that the Supreme Court is out of touch and the justices are disconnected from each other on major issues of law is also belied by the facts.

Many Democrats are using this narrative to support a view that the Supreme Court should increase the number of justices or be reformed in some way (term limits, age limits, etc).

However, in the Supreme Court term that just ended, 50% of all its decisions were actually unanimous.

89% of the cases had at least one liberal justice in the majority.

Only 8% of the decided cases were 6-3 decisions along ideological lines.



Tuesday, December 26, 2023

BeeLine In Pictures-2023

As the year winds down I have traditionally posted some of the best pictures I have taken with my iPhone during the year.

The last several years most of the pictures were taken closer to home due to Covid.

This year I was able to snap some pictures a little further afield

Below are a few of the sights that I found in scrolling through the photos on my phone.

We are bombarded with a lot of disheartening and discouraging news almost every day but we are also blessed to live in a beautiful and beguiling world if we stop and look around.

A few examples that underscore that point.


Sunrise in Miramar Beach, FL


Sunset in Miramar Beach, FL



Christ Church, New Bern, NC



Hilton Head Island, SC




My hole in one ball this year---4th overall
183 yards, 2nd hole, 5 iron, Beckett Ridge C.C. West Chester, Ohio




Cihuly Garden and Glass Museum, Seattle, WA





Skagway, Alaska



Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska




Denali National Park, Alaska





Faribanks, Alaska





Rome, Italy




The Pyramids, Cairo, Egypt




Ephesus, Turkey




On the Bosphorus Strait, Istanbul, Turkey





Santorini, Greece



The Acropolis, Athens, Greece





Mykonos, Greece


Rhodes, Greece





Bahai Gardens, Haifa, Israel
Photo taken on October 7, 2023
Beautiful and peaceful there...it was much different in Southern Israel




Sunset on the Ionian Sea

Friday, December 22, 2023

This and That---December 22, 2023 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world as we close out 2023.

Student Debt

Despite having been given a pause in making student loan payments for over three years, 40% of student debt holders did not make a payment on their loans once payments were required to be made again beginning in October.


Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-18/student-loan-bills-restart-millions-of-borrowers-benefit-from-biden-leniency


Perhaps it was not the best idea for Joe Biden to keep saying that he is going to find a way to forgive student loan debts even though the U.S. Supreme Court has stated it cannot be done without the approval of Congress?

You can also be sure that he will soon be saying that he will be forgiving student loan debt as part of his 2024 campaign promises.

Why would anyone pay if someone keeps telling them their debts will be forgiven?


Talk About a Generation Gap

I don't know that I have ever seen a larger generation gap than what is reflected in this survey.

67% of the 18-24 age group see Jews as oppressors. Only 9% of those age 65+ do.

Mind you this is not a survey about the state of Israel or Zionists as oppressors. They are just referring to ordinary Jewish people you see everyday in your community.


It makes you wonder exactly what is being taught to young people for all of that student debt they have accumulated.

What is really ironic is that 67% of this age group voted for Biden in 2020 and many still believe that Donald Trump and his supporters are Nazis.


Another Gigantic Gap

Another gigantic gap is shown in this graph that tracks the level of satisfaction that U.S. 12th graders have with their parents compared to how satisfied they are with life as a whole.


Teenage satisfaction with the world as a whole used to generally track how satisfied the teen was in the relationship they had with their parents.

That correlation ceased to exist beginning about 2014. 

I wonder what might have contributed to this?


Credit: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/08/23/most-u-s-teens-who-use-cellphones-do-it-to-pass-time-connect-with-others-learn-new-things/


Failure to Launch

It appears that it is getting more difficult for the newest generations to launch their lives.


Credit: https://twitter.com/bp22/status/1736912653551837246/photo/1


Many compounding effects flow from this fact and almost none of them are positive.

Some state that this is the result of the internet giving everyone too many choices and making it harder to commit to mate.  

The thinking is that someone better must be one click away.




I Think We Needed That Debt Ceiling Limit

Almost $2.5 trillion has been added to U.S. national debt in the last seven months since the debt ceiling limit was done away with.

Does anyone else think this might have been a mistake?




$36 trillion may be owed by the time we get to 2025 when the debt ceiling limit is set to again be a point of discussions in Congress. 

That would be $4.5 trillion higher than the previous debt ceiling dollar limit.

All is proceeding as I predicted it might in my blog post in May, "Debt Deal Disappointment" right after it was agreed to.

...the McCarthy-Biden proposal has no dollar-denominated debt ceiling limit.

Instead, it allows the federal government to borrow as much as it needs or wants until January 1, 2025.

This will mean that the debt ceiling could go up another $2 trillion, $3 trillion, $4 trillion or higher without  requiring additional Congressional approval.

If we were to face a recession in the next 18 months there is no telling what the debt limit might end up being.

Notice as well that the debt ceiling limit will expire after the 2024 elections but before a new Congress will be sworn in during the first few days of January, 2025.

This means the next debt limit ceiling discussions will occur during a lame duck session of Congress and what could also involve a lame duck President.

You also have to wonder what would stop the Biden administration Secretary of Treasury from issuing as many debt obligations as they could right before the January 1, 2025 deadline?

None of this is conducive to being in the best interests of the American people.

On the other hand, it is all rather convenient for the politicians involved don't you think?


The interest costs on $36 trillion at an average 4% interest rate is almost $1.5 trillion per year.

By comparison, the defense spending bill for 2024 that was just passed is $842 billion for fiscal 2024.

The federal government is projected to collected $2.2 trillion in individual income taxes in fiscal 2023.

Something has to give very soon.

It is called math.

Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Welcome to Insanityland

Where will it stop?

Will it require the end of humanity?

I am talking about the green agenda response to so-called human induced climate change.

Scientists in the U.K. are now saying that breathing is bad for the environment.



The new study was led by Dr Nicholas Cowan, an atmospheric physicist at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Edinburgh. 

'Exhaled human breath can contain small, elevated concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both of which contribute to global warming,' Dr Cowan and colleagues say. 

'We would urge caution in the assumption that emissions from humans are negligible.'


Do we really have scientists worrying about 0.1%?

Of course, this comes after we have been told to stop eating meat.


Source: https://sentientmedia.org/how-does-eating-less-meat-help-climate-change/
 

They are trying to shut down farms in the Netherlands because they produce too much nitrogen run-off and have too much livestock.

Source: https://www.beefcentral.com/news/dutch-govt-to-shut-down-up-to-3000-farms-sparking-more-protests/
The plans to halve the country’s nitrogen output by 2030 sparked mass protests earlier this year, with farmers blocking supermarket distribution centres with tractors and lighting silage bags on fire. Signs expressing solidarity with Dutch farmers were displayed across Europe.

The plans to reduce fertilisers and livestock-related nitrogen run-off came after several court cases ruled the The Netherlands’ Government was not doing enough to address the “nitrogen crisis.” The Government replied with plans to reduce livestock numbers by 25pc and a series of other measures.


You wonder how they expect people to eat without farms to produce food?

You already know that they plan to ban all internal combustion engines in favor of electric vehicles.

California already has mandated that all new cars and light trucks sold by 2035 in that state must be zero emissions.

Two years ago the Biden Administration got Congress to pass legislation to provide $7.5 billion to build 500,000 electric charging stations around the United States. Biden claimed that they would be as common as gas stations and allow 50% of the vehicles on the road to be electric by 2030.

They are a little behind in doing what they said they would despite having the money appropriated.

Built so far with those billions of dollars?  ZERO.


Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/05/congress-ev-chargers-billions-00129996


They would also like to limit air travel for the common folk. 

How about a four-flight lifetime limit on air travel?

A recent French poll found that a 41% of the respondents favored a four-flight air travel limit for everyone's lifetime.

The four-flight limit garnered 59% support from 18-24 year olds. 




Of course, the elites would keep using their private planes because they are doing "important work".

Source: https://simpleflying.com/private-jet-flights-cop-28-carbon-footprint/


The work to stop climate change is so important that the Biden's administration's climate envoy John Kerry and Kamala Harris both had to take their own private jets to Dubai for the climate conference in Dubai.

They couldn't at least fly together as a small sacrifice for the climate?

The Biden administration recently announced a climate rule through the EPA that would require most fossil fuel power generation plants (coal and natural gas) to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions at leasts 90% by between 2035 and 2040---or shut down.

For context, 60% of power generation in the United States today comes from fossil fuels. 


Net electricity generation in the United States from 1990 to 2022, by energy source
(in terawatt-hours)


The use of coal in power generation has already been cut in half over the last decade in the United States. Most of that loss has been made up with another fossil fuel---natural gas.

Does anyone honestly believe that 60% of electric generation capacity can be replaced in 10-15 years especially if green enthusiasts also want everyone to be plugging their car into the electric grid?


While all of this green agenda is being pushed on us every day I thought this factoid was interesting.


Source: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3778974-global-coal-use-hits-all-time-high-report/


Global coal use will reach its highest level ever driven principally by consumption in Asia despite calls for net zero in the U.S. and Europe.


Most of the increased usage was for new coal-fired electric generating plants.


Source: https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3232574/china-coal-power-spree-continues-frantic-pace-300-plants-pipeline-despite-2030-carbon-pledge


While the United States and Europe pursue their green agendas, the portion of the planet with the most humans beings exhaling those dangerous emissions in every breath they take seem to not care much about their carbon emissions.

Coal, breath or otherwise.

To put that in perspective, consider this map of world population by longitude.

Those of us who live in the Western Hemisphere have little perspective on what crowded really means.


World Population by Longitude
Source: https://engaging-data.com/population-latitude-longitude/


Carbon emissions are exploding in Asia in order to provide electricity to the masses.

Europe and the United States have actually reduced emissions over the last 20 years.

The United States and Europe could both achieve net zero carbon emissions and it would not offset what is happening in Asia.




At the same time, the United States has more coal reserves than any other nation (and several continents) on earth.



It is not just coal either.

Despite the best efforts of Biden and the Democrats to handcuff crude oil production, most would be surprised to see that the United States is projected to pump out more crude oil production than any other country in the world in the fourth quarter, 2023.


Credit: https://twitter.com/PlanMaestro/status/1731679194302542057



The United States is also the leading natural gas producer in the world by a fair measure.


Source: https://www.globalfirepower.com/natural-gas-production-by-country.php#google_vignette



In fact, the significant natural gas reserves and production allows prices of natural gas to be about 80% less to consumers in the United States compared to Europe or China.

Does any of those who are pushing the green agenda make any sense?

The United States has the greatest competitive energy advantage in the world compared to its global competitors in coal. oil and natural gas but we have politicians who want to ban their use?

In the meantime, our biggest global competitor, China, is building coal-fired generating plants and setting records every year in consuming more and more coal, the dirtiest of all fossil fuels.

Where will it stop?

They don't want to use coal.

They don't want to use oil.

They don't want to use natural gas.

They don't want you to drive a gasoline powered vehicle.

They don't want you to fly.

They don't want you to eat meat.

They don't want farmers to use fertilizer to grow our food.

They now don't want you to breathe.

Will the last person alive please blow out the candle?

The lights will have long since been turned off.

However, we cannot even be sure the planet will be green if we follow the green agenda as there will likely not be enough carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to keep the trees and plants alive.

Welcome to Insanityland.


Postscript

I wrote the following passage ten years ago. It is even truer today that it was a decade ago.


Only in a liberal mind does it make sense to...

shut down your most cost-effective energy generating source, 

shut-off your most abundant energy resource, 

raise electricity costs on all Americans,

and risk losing hundreds of thousand of jobs in the process.

In an attempt to solve a problem... 

that we are not even sure we have, 

and if we do, we are not sure we can do anything about it, 

because of natural or external forces that we cannot control, 

that may overwhelm anything we do anyway,

that ultimately works to the advantage of your biggest trade partner, 

that will undoubtedly result in more job losses for Americans over the longer term.

Monday, December 18, 2023

Excess Deaths And Disabilities In 2023

One of the big questions remaining in the post-Covid world is why we are seeing excess mortality well above pre-2020 levels persisting into 2023?

In fact, the expectation was that coming out of the pandemic we would see excess mortality numbers actually go negative due to the fact that Covid disproportionately caused more deaths in the older age cohorts.

This meant that Covid likely pulled a number of deaths forward of those older who were infirm and would likely die of another cause within the next several months or years.

This has not proven to be the case almost four years beyond the beginning of the pandemic.

What is more troubling is the significant amount of excess deaths that we are seeing in younger age groups.

For example, consider the graph below that was in an article in Life Insurance News about the continuing surge in excess mortality post-Covid.



Note the gray and mauve lines for the 2018 and 2019 pre-Covid years in which deaths were closely aligned with actuarial predictions for both years at 0% excess deaths.

In 2020 (the gold line) we see excess deaths at about 20% above normal for almost all age groups 15 years of age and older. This is probably not unexpected in that we were in the middle of a once in 100 year pandemic

In 2021 (the red line) excess deaths for all age groups is much higher than in 2020. Excess deaths are particularly high in the age 20-60 age groups at over 30% above normal rates. In the age 25-50 age goops excess deaths is 40% higher than expectations. This is particularly interesting as this is AFTER the introduction of the Covid vaccines which were supposed to provide protection against severe illness and death.

2022 (the pink line) saw excess deaths moderate but we still saw excess deaths of 30% above the baseline in the age 30-50 age groups.

In the first five months of 2023 (the black dotted line) we finally saw deaths in the 50-75 age group return to close to normal but excess deaths in the 30-50 age group are still 20% higher than expected.

What is going on?

Here is another look at excess deaths by broad age group comparing individuals covered by group life contracts (generally those employed) with the U.S.population as a whole that was prepared by the Society for Actuaries Research Group.

As a general rule it is expected that those individuals who are employed will be a healthier population in that they have to work. You are dealing with a more select group of individuals that will not include those who are disabled or otherwise too sick or weak to work.


Source: https://www.soa.org/4ac0fd/globalassets/assets/files/resources/experience-studies/2023/group-life-covid-mort-06-23.pdf


You can see this in the data for 2020 in that the Group Life population had lower deaths than the U.S. population. This would be the initial year of Covid with no vaccine. The Group Life population would also include those individuals who had greater risk of exposure to the virus as they could not all lockdown.

However, in 2021, after the introduction the vaccines, the situation reversed.

Those in the 15-64 age groups had greater excess mortality than the general U.S.population.

Why did this occur in 2021 and not 2020?

Why did excess deaths stay up in 2022 and 2023 even as Covid deaths receded?

The graphs below shows the trend in excess deaths for the under age 45 and 45-64 age groups excluding any Covid deaths. 

Notice how the age 44 and under excess deaths excluding Covid have remained persistently high while the age 45-64 excess deaths have returned to a more normal pattern.


Source: https://www.soa.org/4ac0fd/globalassets/assets/files/resources/experience-studies/2023/group-life-covid-mort-06-23.pdf


We know that drug overdose deaths increased in the 2021-2023 period. (See a blog post I wrote on this subject earlier this year)

We also know that suicides increased. (See my last blog post).

Are the excess deaths due to some type of longer term post-Covid virus effect?

If so, why has it not had the same effect on the old as the young?

Is it possible this has something to do with the Covid vaccines introduced in 2021?

Could the vaccines have a stronger long-term negative effect on the immune, cardiovascular or other systems of the young compared to the old?

The data and graphs above came from life insurance industry sources.

The reports about this data from life insurance sources have described what they are seeing in excess deaths to be "alarming" or "disturbing" or a subject deserving "urgent attention".

I don't know the answer to the questions above but it seems to me there should be some serious research and study being done by the NIH, CDC, FDA or another government agency to answer these questions.

After all, these vaccines were sold to the public as being "safe and effective".

It was mandated that tens of millions had to take the vaccine or lose their job, be kicked out of school or forced out of the military based on that promise.

If there is something we don't know we better find out sooner than later.

We have also seen the number of those in the civilian labor force with a disability expand massively since 2021. An additional 2.5 million individuals are on disability now than there were three years ago.

What has caused this?


Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01074597


Is this merely the result of those who got used to living off of government benefits during Covid and decided they no longer wanted to work?

Is it after-effects of Covid? However, if this is the cause why did disabilities not begin increasing until a year after Covid first appeared on the scene?

Does it have something to do with the vaccine?

My hope is that a thorough investigation of the causes of the excess deaths and increased disabilities would conclude this is all related to Covid, the lockdowns and the after-effects rather than the vaccines.

However, the data suggests that something is wrong somewhere.

We need to find out what it is.

Is there a reason why there is not more curiosity and vigor being directed at finding the answer?

Could it be that those in charge at the CDC, NIH and FDA do not want to know the answer?


Friday, December 15, 2023

Is The End of Hamas Near?

After Hamas savagely attacked Israel on October 7 the Israelis responded by stating that they would eliminate Hamas.

Is the end of Hamas near?

A couple of news items this week suggest that the days of Hamas are numbered.

First, it is being reported that several top Hamas leaders who live in comfort in Qatar have left that country for an unknown destination.



Several Hamas leaders left Qatar for an unknown destination, turning off their phones and not accepting calls, KAN's Arabic language channel reported citing sources in Doha on Tuesday evening.

Additionally, on Tuesday, KAN news reported that Saleh al-Arouri, a senior member of Hamas, left his usual residence in Beirut for Turkey.


I am guessing that they are not heading to Gaza.

It also was probably a good idea to turn off their cellphones as Israel recently stated that they were intent on tracking down and killing top Hamas leaders wherever they were in the world.


The moves come after Israel pledged to track down and kill senior Hamas leaders around the world, and follow a request U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made in October to Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Thani to uproot the terror group's leadership from his country.

“This is our Munich,” Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s Shin Bet security service said recently in a recording aired on Israeli radio, referring to Operation Wrath of God, Israel’s multi-year effort to wipe out the Black September Palestinian terrorists who killed 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics. 

That campaign was celebrated in the 2005 Steven Spielberg epic “Munich,” starring Eric Bana.

“In every location, in Gaza, in the West Bank, in Lebanon, in Turkey, in Qatar, everyone,” Bar said in the recording. “It will take a few years, but we will be there in order to do it.”


A Hamas leader in Gaza was also quoted this week saying that the Palestinian terror group could recognize Israel's right to exist. This has not been something Hamas has been willing to do in the past although the rival Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) had done so since the Oslo accords of the 1990's.


Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/under-military-pressure-a-top-hamas-official-suggests-recognizing-israel/


Senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk suggests that the Palestinian terror group could recognize Israel for the first time as a step toward Palestinian unity, potentially indicating the pressure it is currently under amid Israel’s military campaign to oust it from the Gaza Strip.

The development comes shortly after Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh said yesterday that he is open to talks for ending the ongoing war and “putting the Palestinian house in order both in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip,” potentially leading to a “political path that secures the right of the Palestinian people to their independent state with Jerusalem as its capital.”


It was not long before Hamas official Marzouk said he was "misunderstood' and he walked back his comments on recognizing Israel.



He might have been misunderstood but most people can look at these developments and see that Hamas is realizing they are in deep trouble.

I appears that seeing the advances Israel has made in Gaza, the mass surrenders of Hamas terrorists   occurring recently and the flooding of the terror tunnels is providing the leaders of Hamas with new perspective.

Tens of billions of investment in terror tunnels and thousands of trained terrorists are in the process of disappearing. 

It will be a hard path back. It will be even harder if you are not around to see it.

Of course, it is also going to be a hard path forward for Israel. The death, damage and destruction that it has inflicted on Gaza and the Palestinians will not be easily forgotten. It promises another generation of greater hatred for Israel.

The only way around this is for Israel to accept nothing less than for the unconditional surrender of Hamas.

There can be no negotiated peace.

The only answer is the total submission and humiliation of Hamas.

We have seen this before.

We saw it in the Civil War and we saw it in World II with Germany and Japan.

Leaders in those times saw that the only way to move forward in peace after so much death and destruction was unconditional surrender. The enemy had to be defeated and there had to be complete demoralization and submission by the society that supported the enemy leaders if there was to be hope for a future living together peacefully.

This is what occurred with the South in the Civil War and Germany and Japan after World War II.

The will to wage war was completely extinguished in the citizenry.

The same will be necessary with Palestinians in Gaza.

Israel will be under immense pressure in the coming days to negotiate peace with Hamas short of seeking its unconditional surrender.

Over the last several generations we have become accustomed to negotiated peace settlements to end wars. We saw it in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Wars ended with no clear winners and losers.

Israel has pushed back and defended itself each time it has been attacked during the 75 years of its existence but it never sought to completely vanquish its enemies. 

We are in a different time. I hope and trust that Israel understands this.

I have written before about being in The Fourth Turning, the book written in 1997 by Neil Howe and William Strauss. that predicted we would be entering troubling times in the 2010-2030 period.

This is where we are today in Israel, the United States and most of the world.

The Fourth Turning---a season of crisis when the survival of the society will feel as if it was at stake.

Here is what Howe and Strauss wrote about the views on war in The Fourth Turning (page 278).

This is unlike anything most of us have experienced about any wars in our lifetime.


"If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil--its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured. And if there is total war it is likely that the most destructive weapons available will be deployed."


The end of Hamas is growing closer.

However, the only hope for some type of peace for Israel for the future is to not stop until the unconditional surrender of Hamas is achieved.

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Looking For Connection In A Disconnected Nation

The CDC recently came out with its provisional report on deaths by suicide for 2022.

The report is sobering.

It shows that 49,449 Americans look their own life last year.

On a population-adjusted basis that is the most suicides in the United States since 1941.

There were 14.3 deaths/100,000 from suicide in the United States in 2022.

Suicides in 1941 represented the last year of elevated suicide levels that roughly corresponded with the years of the Great Depression.


Credit: https://jabberwocking.com/raw-data-suicide-over-the-past-century/

Suicide levels then decreased markedly after World War II and were somewhat stable until the year 2000.

Suicides have generally been climbing each year since then.

What is even more troubling is that while suicides in the United States have been increasing the rates of suicides in most other countries in the world have been declining.

The United States used to be in the middle of the pack compared to the representative countries in the graph below. The U.S. now is at the top of the pack.



What is interesting is that the United States has many more suicides than counties like El Salvador, Honduras and Venezuela in which we are seeing thousands of illegals crossing our border seeking asylum supposedly because they are oppressed and in danger for their lives in their home countries.



Or countries such as China and Egypt in which personal freedom is greatly restricted or Argentina which has seen massive hyperinflation and a struggling economy.



The United States also is comparing very unfavorably versus European allies such as the U.K., France and Germany.




Although the overall suicide rate is 14.3/100,000 there is a significant difference in the rate between males and females,

The suicide rate among males is 4 times what it is for females.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr034.pdf


The suicide rate for males age 75 and older is particularly alarming.

43.7/100,000.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr034.pdf

That is 10 times the rate of females of the same age!

Source:https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr034.pdf


Interestingly, the highest female rate for suicides is found in the age 45-54 age group. However, this rate is still less than a one-third of the rate for males of the same age.

What is causing the increase in suicides in the United States?

My guess is that an increasing level of disconnection from other human beings caused by the internet, smartphones and social media is a significant factor.

The wealth in the United States, combined with technology, has allowed people to work from home, shop from home, find their mate on the internet and focus their friendships on 140 character texts on their phones. The need for personal connection has all but disappeared.

Consider the data on the number of close friends that adults in the U.S. reported having in 2021 vs. 1990.


Number of close friends had by adults in the United States in 1990 and 2021
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1358672/number-of-close-friends-us-adults/


In 1990, 63% of U.S. adults reported having five or more close friends. In 2021, only 38% did.

In 1990, only 27% of U.S. adults reported having fewer than three close friends. In 2021, 49% of adults stated that this was their reality.

The most common number of close friends in 1990 was 10 or more (33%). In 2021 the most common number of close friends was just three (17%).

It is also generally a fact that males are less social and closely connected with friends than women are.

This also becomes a bigger and bigger problem as men age where they are more likely to be disconnected from others to a much greater degree than when they worked.

Combine this with other factors that may affect older males such as death of a spouse, disability and disease and it all can culminate in depression leading to suicide.

Think about this as we head into the holiday season.

Is there someone that you could help out by reaching out and making a connection?

It may be the best gift you can give this year,