Carl von Clausewitz was a Prussian general and military theorist of the early 19th century who is generally attributed as being first in describing the concept of "the fog of war"
War is fraught with uncertainty.
Incomplete information, doubt and fear are inherent to war as are the risks involved in any engagement with an enemy.
There is little doubt that Hamas had no idea what their attack on Israel of October 7, 2023 would evolve into.
As I have written before, I arrived in Israel on the morning of October 7, to tour the country for three days.
As we started the tour that morning our tour guide told us there were reports of a "disturbance" in the the south of Israel. She told us that there was nothing to be overly concerned about as this was a fairly common occurrence in her country.
Several hours later the fog had lifted and it was clear to everyone that what had occurred was anything but common.
When we left her that afternoon her son has already been called up by the IDF. We left Israel that night and nothing has been the same since.
The entire Hamas leadership from that time has been eliminated and Gaza has suffered untold damage.
Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon has also paid an enormous price for their long standing attacks on Israel.
Finally, Iran, which supplied much of the funding for Hamas and Hezbollah is the focus in the Middle East conflict for their years of calling for "Death to Israel" and "Death to the United States".
I do not know if President Trump made the right call in targeting Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend or not.
I do know it was an incredibly difficult decision for him.
There are just so many uncertainties involved in all of this.
Did the United States obliterate the uranium enrichment facilities or has Iran retained the ability to build a nuclear weapon?
Will the Iranian regime fall? If it does, could it be replaced with even those who are even more hard-line theocrats?
Will the Iranian people rise up against the regime or will the people rally around their country against the U.S and Israel even more firmly?
Will Iran target American interests and citizens in retribution for the attack?
At his core, Trump is decidedly a man who is anti-war.
Trump has a long record of being skeptical of war going back all the way to the Iraq war.
He is a negotiator and deal maker.
In fact, recent reports have just surfaced that Trump was willing to fly to Turkey this past week for a person to person meeting with Iran's Ayatollah to attempt to negotiate a peace deal brokered by Turkey's President Erdogan.
The meeting could not be arranged because the Ayatollah was not willing to leave his bunker to even set up the meeting in fear of his life.
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| Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/06/21/trump-iran-turkey-negotiations-israel-war |
Trump is also someone who does not make decisions lightly.
There is always a lot of brashness and bluster from Trump. However, his decisions always seem to be well-formed and level headed.
He undoubtedly heard a lot of opinions on both sides of the question of whether to involve the United States in the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
I trust that he made the best decision that could be made based on the information and intelligence that he was given.
There were a lot of war hawks pushing him hard to act.
However, there were also a lot of people close to him who wanted the United States to have Israel take care of Iran on their own.
I have attempted to follow what was going on in the Israel/Iran war since the conflict began but the flog of war has made it difficult to do so.
Part of the problem is an imbalance in the sources of information.
Israel is much more open and free and we can see the incoming Iranian missiles and the damages they are causing. At the same time, we are not seeing the full extent of the damages as Israel is censoring some of the coverage.
There is almost no reliable information coming out of Iran.
It does appear that Israel has decimated Iran's air defense capabilities such that there is almost nothing in the country that cannot be easily targeted by the Israelis.
Reports from the United States attack were that not one shot was fired at our bombers and support aircraft on the way in or out of Iran
This puts Iran is a very vulnerable position going forward. Every military installation, all its infrastructure and its political leadership is an open target for Israeli air strikes.
Iran is still able to fire missiles at Israel but how many missiles do they have left, and more importantly, how many missile launchers are still available?
With no air defense, Iran's ability to launch missiles is going to degrade over time as Israel focuses its attacks on the launchers.
At the same time, at what point is Israel going to run out of Iron Dome and other missile defense ordinance that has thwarted a high percentage of Iranian missiles from hitting their targets?
How long will Israel be able to sustain the air attacks considering the long distances that must be flown from Israel to Iran?
This looks to me like it is evolving into a war of attrition.
Who is going to run out of war material first?
We are already hearing a number of Democrats claiming that Trump should not have acted because Iran had done nothing to us.
I guess that is true if you ignore the consistent "Death to America" calls and all of these incidents over the years beginning with the hostages Iran took from the U.S. embassy in 1979.
We also are hearing that Trump did not have the constitutional authority to act and that he should be impeached.
However, these same people did not have a problem with Barack Obama authorizing thousands of targets in the Middle East of which many were not approved by Congress.
For example, in 2016 alone, 26,171 bombs were dropped by the United States on various targets in the Middle East that were authorized by Obama.
That works out to be an average of 72 bombs dropped each day of 2016.
We now will have to wait to see where we are when the fog of war lifts to give us a better idea of where this conflict goes.
One thing is for sure.
These are consequential times.
Trump was already likely going to go down as a very consequential presidents based on his "Make American Great Agenda".
Whether you like the direction he was taking on immigration, tariffs, dismantling wokeism and all the rest or not, there is no denying it was bold and represents a significant directional change for the country.
The decision regarding Iran makes it even clearer that Trump's presidency will be one of the most consequential in history.
It remains to be seen whether Trump will be consequential because he successfully guides us through these troubled times or lets the United States end up hopelessly divided at home and diminished in the global community.
One thing is for sure.
You cannot be great unless you are not afraid to be great.
That in itself is a rare commodity in a leader.
Trump has proven over and over that he is not afraid to be great
Look at the first three names on most lists of the greatest Presidents. One thing they share is that they were not afraid to be great.
George Washington was a man of privilege and prosperity. It would have been easy to forget about leading a revolutionary army against the British. He had it made. He had very little to gain personally by revolting against the British. He could have easily seen his life end on the end of a noose for treason and sedition at the hands of the British.
George Washington was not afraid to be great. He put it all on the line and he expected little in return.
You can say the same thing about Abraham Lincoln. He could have negotiated with the Confederacy after the southern states seceded from the union. He could have decided that it was too controversial to push for the 13th and 14th amendments. He was not afraid to take a stand. Many criticized his actions.
Abraham Lincoln was not afraid to be great. We now appreciate that courage and greatness.
Franklin Roosevelt took office as the U.S. economy was in ruins and as Nazi Germany and the Japanese Empire sought to expand their borders and enslave millions of people. Roosevelt responded aggressively to the needs of the American people with his New Deal. At times he went too far as with his attempt to stack the Supreme Court. However, he was not afraid to take action.
He also did not hesitate to act when the war was brought to him. He also ignored the Washington precedent on serving two terms when he thought that the country needed continuity in those turbulent times.
Most Presidents never become great because they are typical politicians. They try to play both sides. They are afraid of offending anyone. They don't take strong stands. They are risk averse. They don't put themselves out there to succeed...or fail. In short, they are afraid to be great.
Of course, great Presidents usually come about by facing great challenges. In many respects, the times make the man. It was certainly true with Washington, Lincoln and Roosevelt.
Greatness does not follow when taking the easy road. It only graces those who are not afraid of the challenge on the hard road.
Success is never assured. Trump may fail bigly. However, he is not afraid to be great. That in itself is a rare commodity. Keep that in mind as you listen to those who criticize Trump.
You cannot be great unless you are not afraid to be great.
Only when the fog of war lifts and the reality of the world around us is revealed in the wake of the U.S. intervention in Iran will we understand whether Trump has met the moment or not.
For the sake and the United States and the world, I pray that he has.
