Can DOGE Make A Differecne?

President Trump has appointed Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a Department of Government Efficiency ("DOGE").

This is not an official cabinet department.

DOGE will operate outside of government with the objective of making the federal government less bureaucratic, more efficient and less wasteful in spending tax dollars.

Elon Musk provided a few tidbits on how DOGE will operate in a recent article on NewsNation.

Musk has provided some tidbits on what could be in store for DOGE since Trump’s announcement on the agency. 

“Incentives matter. There should be rewards for wise spending, but those who waste taxpayer funds cannot be allowed to keep doing so without consequences,” Musk posted on X of DOGE on Wednesday, hinting that cuts will be imminent under his guidance. 

He also said the department would provide “maximum transparency” and that all of DOGE’s actions will be posted online.

“Anytime the public thinks we are cutting something important or not cutting something wasteful, just let us know!” Musk posted. 

Musk also said that DOGE would create a “leaderboard for most insanely dumb spending” of tax dollars, which he said would be “extremely tragic and extremely entertaining.” 

Trump has asked that the work conclude no later than July 4, 2026---the 250th anniversary of American independence.

Elon Musk says that it will be done much faster.

That is something that Musk says quite often when he is told how long something should take with Tesla, SpaceX or one of his other ventures.

He has rarely been wrong.

Of course, the challenge that Elon and Vivek face in attempting to reform the federal government, its bureaucracy and its spending borders on the impossible.

For example, look at this comparison of the U.S, budget deficit as a % of GDP in comparison with other developed countries.

Credit: https://thebahnsengroup.com/dividend-cafe/a-comprehensive-post-election-commentary-november-15-2024/

For the just completed federal government fiscal year the U.S. had a primary budget deficit of 5.8% of GDP.

On the other hand, Greece (yes, Greece!) had a budget surplus of 1.1% of GDP.

Portugal had a budget surplus of 2.9% of GDP. Ireland had a 2.1% surplus.

For context, a 1% budget surplus as a % of GDP in the United States would amount to $290 billon

The U..S. had a reported deficit of over $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024.

What more evidence does one need to see that the United States is on a road to fiscal disaster without significant reform in Washington, D.C.?

Can DOGE make a difference?

Elon Musk has stated that it is his goal to find $2 trillion in savings in the federal budget.

It is an admirable goal but color me skeptical that he can make many recommendations that Congress would approve that would come close to that number.

Let's look at the numbers.

The federal government spent $6.8 billion last year.

We are at the point that almost $1 trillion of that total is net interest on the federal debt.

Social Security payments are another $1.5 trillion.

Interest on the debt must be paid. It is hard to see where Social Security benefits are also not sacrosanct in any DOGE assessment other than small amounts of fraudulent payments that are made each year.

That leaves $4.3 trillion in spending to find efficiencies and savings of which the largest expenditures are Medicaid  & General Health ($912 billion ), Medicare ($874 billion) and Defense ($874 billion). That totals another $2.7 billion.

If those expenditures are excluded, the remaining federal government spending that is left is only $1.6 trillion.

It is going to be difficult to find $2.0 trillion in savings and efficiencies in $1.6 trillion in spending.

Reining any the federal government bureaucracy and its spending is a herculean task.

Speaking of herculean tasks, consider what Javier Milei faced when he took over as Argentina's President last December.

Argentina has been ruled by far left socialists for many years. Beset by economic malaise, bureacracy and hyperinflation, the voters finally revolted.

This is how Columbia University's Institute of Latin American Studies described the situation in Argentina that Milei inherited.

President Javier Milei was elected as President of Argentina last December with 53% of the popular vote. He inherited one of the worst economic situations ever, one that was undoubtedly heading towards hyperstagflation and economic collapse. In his political campaign, Milei proposed a radical libertarian plan to attempt a 180-degree turn in Argentina’s socio-economic organization which he had characterized as beset by rent-seeking and corruption. He presented to Congress a package of laws including an across-the-board elimination of all types of regulations to transform Argentina into a modern capitalist economy. However, he still has governed with a minority in both chambers of government and many of the proposed reforms have been blocked.If anybody has a chance to do it, Elon and Vivek are the people to do it.

How is Milei doing?

Inflation has decreased from 25.5% per month when he took office to 3.5% today.

Milei fulfilled a campaign pledge to take a chainsaw to the bureaucratic state by eliminating entire government departments and slashing government payrolls.

The government is showing a 0.3% of GDP surplus in the first eight months of the year compared to a 4.6% deficit at the end of 2023.

"One international financial official describes it as “the most drastic fiscal adjustment ever seen in a peacetime economy”.

Investors in the country's debt and those considering investing in business in the country are showing renewed confidence in the country

The "country risk" premium for Argentina's sovereign debt has fallen sharply but still needs to fall further to come close to its Latin American neighbors.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-investors-bet-mileis-popularity-year-after-his-election-2024-11-18/

The Argentina stock market index has tripled in value over the last year.

Source: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-merval-index/#overview

The economy for everyday Argentinians has not yet taken hold. Milei is still the most popular politician in Argentina but the population is split on the new President.

Voters like the government spending cuts. However, they want to to see more from the economy that benefits them.

If Milei can make these types of changes in Argentina, why can't something similar be done in the United States?

Elon Musk likes to point out that the United States has 428 federal agencies. That is equivalent to creating more than one per year since the nation was founded. 

He thinks we should be able to get away with no more than 99 agencies.

Link to video

I have learned to never underestimate Donald Trump.

Or Elon Musk.

An interesting side note in all of this is that Trump's cabinet appointments may actually make it easier to trim some of the deep state bureaucracy without Elon and Vivek lifting a finger.

There are reports that a number of government bureaucrats may resign simply because they don't like the Trump cabinet appointments.

At the FBI.

At the DOJ.

At the Department of Defense.

At the FDA.

If these federal employees actually follow through ( I doubt many will), it will just make the work of DOGE easier.

It would seem a simple tactic for DOGE to reduce the current bureaucracy might also be to just require all federal employees to work in the office.

Well past any Covid concerns, close to half of the federal government workforce still works remotely.

A federal government report from last year found that 17 or 24 government agencies that were surveyed are using less than a quarter of their office space because of work from home employees.

Remote work has become so entrenched in some agencies that employees who are assigned to work in D.C. or New York City have moved to New Hampshire, Florida, Texas and other states for a lower cost of living.  However, they still get a pay differential that can be 30% or more that is tied to their official work location.

A bill was introduced in Congress earlier this year to get federal employees back in the office and remove the pay differential for those working from home.

Source: https://www.romney.senate.gov/romney-manchin-introduce-bill-to-get-federal-workers-back-into-the-office/

Of course, why would anyone think that you would need to pass a law to do this?

These employees work in the executive branch. It would seem to be a simple matter of their managers just ordering them to report to work at their assigned office location.

Can DOGE make a difference?

We may not get $2 trillion or even half of that in efficiencies and savings from DOGE.

However, I have no doubt we will get substantial savings that we never would have seen if the status quo was left in place.

Cutting the red tape and the bureaucracy on the American people carries enormous benefits beyond the government spending.

That in itself makes it all well worth the effort.

Let's get on with it.

Flawed and Foolish

There is not a better example of how the priorities of the United States are misaligned than what can be found in the chart below.

This chart details the higher education degrees that are receiving the highest and lowest subsidies based on the Income Driven Repayment Plan (IDR) for student loan forgiveness.

That program lowers monthly payments, waives excess interest, and allows for student loan forgiveness after 10 to 25 years in repayment, depending on the type of loans and the original balance.

Biden/Harris have attempted to liberalize this statutory plan further as part of the effort to cancel student debt but it has been challenged in court.

Source: https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1856512745287409933

Under the IDR program, required student loan repayments are capped at no more than 5% of income over 225% of the poverty level.

This effectively means that borrowers with low average earnings are required to pay very little each year on their student loan balances.

At the same time, interest is accruing each year.  In that such small amounts are required to be paid on the loans as the interest compounds, it is almost inevitable that the total amount owed on the loan after a decade or more can be more than the original loan balance.

After 10, 20 or 25 years, depending on different requirements, any remaining balance on the loan is forgiven if it has not been repaid under the IDR rules.

The chart above shows the effects of that policy on different higher education majors.

This program effectively provides students who major in low value, low paying courses of study the ability to not have to pay their student loans back. 

You can see from the chart that this policy provides almost no subsidy for degrees that are the most necessary and in demand in this day and age---engineering, computer science and nursing.

On the other hand, it heavily subsidizes degrees such as music, fine and studio arts and cosmetology to the extent that the federal government is effectively paying the entire cost of any student loans taken out for these degrees.

Misplaced priorities and government waste combined in one chart.

For example, what is the logic of the federal government effectively paying for over 100,000 Cosmetology degrees annually?

How is that a worthwhile use of taxpayer dollars for America's future?

While we are paying for over 100,000 Cosmetology degrees, we are barely assisting those who choose Registered Nursing for a career which are degrees we desperately need with the nation's aging population.

Over 100,000 Cosmetologists a year but less than 10,000 Computer Scientists or Electrical Engineers?

What do we need more when we look to the future with AI, Robotics and the industries of the future?

The chart above shows just how misaligned our national policies are as well as the fundamental flaws and foolishness in the entire student loan debt forgiveness program.

I wrote a blog post on the enormous problems with the student loan program in 2019 titled "Student Loan Distress".

In that blog post I cited the enormous amount of federal government money flowing to hair and beauty schools. 

The chart below shows the government money flowing to this sector in fiscal year 2017 as compiled by Openthe Books.com in an oversight report of the Department of Education. 

The amounts of government aid must be much, much higher today.

Credit: https://www.openthebooks.com/assets/1/6/department-of-education-report.pdf

This is what I wrote in that blog post over five years ago.

The largest school, Empire Beauty School, received $534 million in federal education subsidies between 2014 and 2017.

Empire charges students $14,000 in tuition per year to learn how to cut and style hair, apply makeup and give massages over a one to two year period required for graduation. Most students pay with federal student loans.

What is the average pay of their graduates? The New York Times did a study  regarding the economic outcomes of students from these types of schools. At age 34 the median income of Empire Beauty School graduates was $18,800 per year.

Does that sound like a good investment? Take on $14,000 in student debt to get a job that pays $19,000 per year?

None of this could occur but for the massive amount of federal government money made available to facilitate it.

That money is the root cause of why a college education (and beauty and barber schools) have become unaffordable.

The answer is not to throw even more money at it as liberal politicians so often want to do.

It is time to put more accountability on the educational institutions who reap the benefits by making them put more skin in the game.

That should be the first step to putting an end to the student debt crisis that is causing so much distress to so many.

 

The chart below shows how the amount of student debt has grown to where it is now almost $1.8 trillion.

Total student debt is $1 trillion more than it was 15 years ago.

Student loan debt only leveled off the last few years because interest did not accrue on loans for more than three years during Covid, and Biden/Harris were doing anything and everything to forgive student loan debt, including ignoring a Supreme Court ruling on the issue,

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLOAS

How much is $1.8 trillion in student loan debt?

It is larger than the entire GDP of Australia, South Korea or Mexico.

GDP per country
Source: https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1856512745287409933

It is also interesting to look at the geographic areas where the highest average student loan balances are.

D.C. and Maryland.

This just so happens to be where thousands of recent college graduates work in Congressional staff offices and the federal government bureaucracy.

How much do you think they care about who is really paying the bill for all of this?

 

Source: https://www.lendingtree.com/student/student-loan-debt-statistics

Of course, the real beneficiary of the federal student loan program subsidies are the college, universities and beauty schools that would never be able to maintain the enrollments and tuitions they charge without the massive amount of federal money supporting them.

When you consider the endowments that schools like Harvard ($50+ billion)  and Yale ($40+ billion) have why should the federal government be providing any loans at all to its students?

Why does the university not loan the money from its endowment to fund any student loans necessary?

Why should these colleges and universities not be making that type of investment in their students if they have the funds to do so?

Empire Beauty and almost all of the cosmetology schools are "for profit" enterprises. Why should they not use some of their "profits" to fund loans for their students and bear the risk if the students do not make a decent return on their education investment?

When Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy begin their work with the Department of Government Efficiency they might want to first take a look at the entire federal student loan program.

There seems to be a lot of low hanging fruit on the student loan tree to improve government efficiency.

This and That---2024 Post-Election Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on the 2024 election.

Blue Hawaii

Hawaii is one of the most reliably blue states in the nation. 

If there is a Democrat on the ballot they are most certainly going to be elected.

Hawaii has a Democrat Governor and two Democrat U.S. Senators.

Both of its members of Congress are also Democrats.

In the most recent state legislative session, the state Senate had 23 Democrats and 2 Republicans.

In the State House there were 44 Democrats and 6 Republicans.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_State_Legislature

After the 2024 election, it appears that the GOP will pick up one state Senate seat and two House seats.

In the recent Presidential vote in Hawaii, Harris defeated Trump by 23.1% points. That followed D.C. (85.8 points), Vermont (31.8), Maryland (26.8) and Massachusetts (24.8) as the friendliest to Democrats.

However, Hawaii did shift six points to Trump between 2020 and 2024.

One interesting factoid I came across  recently was that in 2020, on the island of Ni'ihau, Trump received 100% of the vote. Trump  beat Biden 43-0. Ni'ihau is at the far end of the Hawaiian islands chain off the southwest coast of Kaua'i.

I was curious how the vote went in 2024.

Turnout was down and one voter went rogue this year.

All votes were cast by mail in Ni'ihau.

22-1 for Trump.

Source: https://x.com/AudittheVoteHI/status/1855673577829486793

I guess this proves that not everything is blue in Hawaii.

However, there are blues in Hawaii that are a sight to behold.

View from my hotel room on Waikiki Beach last month

Not In My Backyard

It is interesting to see the vote shift from 2020 to 2024 in this area of New York City where a massive migrant shelter was built with the influx of illegals into the city during the Biden/Harris years.

 A Melting Plot Goes MAGA

The city of Passaic, New Jersey is a melting pot.

A very small traditional white population of about 4% of its population.

74% Hispanic.

15% Orthodox Jewish.

7% Black.

Consider the 2024 vote totals compared to prior years.

Ramapo, New York

Ramapo, New York is in Rockland County about 30 miles north of New York City.

It is the home to a large Orthodox Jewish community.

Take a look at the votes in a few of the precincts in Jewish neighborhoods in that city.

Source: https://www.rocklandcountyny.gov/departments/board-of-elections/election-results

Source: https://www.rocklandcountyny.gov/departments/board-of-elections/election-results

Source: https://www.rocklandcountyny.gov/departments/board-of-elections/election-results

Not bad for someone the Democrats called a fascist Nazi.

However, what is even more incredible is that the same people in Ramapo Precinct 35 who voted for Trump , 542-0,. in Ramapo Precinct 118, 593-0, and in Ramapo Precinct 55, 966-2, split their ticket and voted for Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand in the U.S. Senate race by overwhelming margins the other way.

Source: Source: https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/rockland-county-ny/elections/GE2024Results/ballot-items/01000000-4482-4645-ce33-08dcf2403026

Source: https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/rockland-county-ny/elections/GE2024Results/ballot-items/01000000-4482-4645-ce33-08dcf2403026

Source; https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/rockland-county-ny/elections/GE2024Results/ballot-items/01000000-4482-4645-ce33-08dcf2403026

That is some world class ticket splitting!

Mischief in Milwaukee?

You might remember seeing this graphic of how the vote totals came in between Trump and Biden in 2020 in the swing states starting around 4am on the day after the election.

This huge spike in the vote totals for Joe Biden fueled many of the suspicions about the integrity of the 2020 election.

Fortunately, the margin of Trump's victory in these states this year has helped to build more confidence in the integrity of the 2024 results.

However, take a look at this graphic of the 2024 Senate vote in Wisconsin.

It looks very similar to what occurred in 2020.

We again saw a surge of votes benefiting the Democrats after 4am on the day after the election.

It is reported that almost all of these votes came in from the city of Milwaukee.

Trump's margin of victory in the state was reduced by these votes but those votes turned Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde from a winner to a loser. He lost by .9% of the votes---about 45,000.

Most urban areas saw voter turnout decline from 2020.

Milwaukee had 78% of its registered voters cast a ballot in 2020.

In 2024, turnout in Milwaukee increased to 85%.

Compare the turnout in Milwaukee compared to other large Rust Belt cities in 2024.

Source: https://x.com/MVRedPodcast/status/1854591131897459159

Was there mischief in Milwaukee?

Something doesn't add up somewhere in all of this.

Threat to Democracy

A campaign theme of Kamala Harris and the Democrats was that Donald Trump was a "threat to democracy".

Oprah Winfrey stated in Kamala's final rally that if Trump was elected it might be the last time anyone was allowed to vote.

Source: https://twitter.com/i/status/1856351688531095832

How did that messaging work out?

The CNN exit poll found that of those most concerned about a threat to democracy in the election, Trump was favored 58%-40%.

Link: https://x.com/BoLoudon/status/1856146448233980365

It turned out that the messaging of the Democrats might actually have been to the benefit of Trump.

That also may partially explain the following.

Money Is Not Everything

Here are the amounts of campaign funds raised by the Harris/Biden and Trump campaigns based on Federal Election Commission data through October 16, 2024.

Harris and Biden raised over $2 billion between them.

Source: https://www.fec.gov/data/raising-bythenumbers/

It appears there may be double counting here as Kamala apparently inherited $486 million from Biden. that is included in her receipts number as a transfer.

However, that still means Kamala had $1.5 billion to spend on her campaign of $2 billion in campaign receipts.

Trump raised $388 million.

Despite this huge fundraising advantage, there are reports that the Harris campaign is at least $20 million in debt. 

When all the bills come in it might be even higher.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-democrat-officials-worried-tens-millions-harris-campaign-debt-could-problem-report

Trump finished with a surplus of about $35 million according to reports.

What happened to the Harris campaign funds?

FEC records show at least $20 million went for payments associated with celebrity appearances at her rallies with Beyonce, Oprah, Katy Perry and the like.

Source: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/nov/11/kamala-harris-campaign-spent-20-million-celebrity-/

FEC records indicate that Kamala Harris spent $582 million on staff costs.

Trump spent $10 million on staff,

Credit: https://x.com/patrickbetdavid/status/1855459510627803427

Is there a lesson here on who would do a better job of spending your money?

Of course, Trump did not miss an opportunity at an epic troll in stating that the GOP should consider paying off the Harris campaign debt for the sake of national unity.

Who knows what the next four years will bring?

The only thing that is certain is that it will not be boring.

The Titan of Turnout

A year ago there were many who argued that Donald Trump should not be the Republican nominee in 2024 as he was too polarizing, he could not possibly win and would also hurt GOP chances to retake the Senate.

This is what I wrote in a blog post in April, 2023 titled, "Hobson's Choice".

It goes without saying Trump is a polarizing figure. 

Many love him but many cannot stand him.

It is also undoubtedly true that Trump has a unique ability to attract many voters who are otherwise disaffected from politics.

The question that remains is whether the numbers of those voters outnumber those who he turns off?

The election results in 2024 may be decided on that answer.

Last week we got the answer.

Those results also made clear that there is no Republican in existence today that can match the ability to turnout and energize voters in the same way that Donald Trump can.

In that same blog post I also reiterated my belief that Trump was more likely to win the primary election vote and be on the general election ballot than Biden.

Right now I actually believe that it is more likely that Donald Trump will be on the general election ballot than Joe Biden.

Trump clearly carries a lot of baggage but his support among Republicans has solidified over the last few months as it appears that he has been unfairly targeted by the FBI in the documents controversy and in the the New York indictment.

Trump only had a margin of 11 points over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis among potential GOP primary voters in January. He now is up 37 points over DeSantis.

Yes, DeSantis has not formally announced he is running yet but Trump has clearly strengthened his position since the beginning of the year compared to DeSantis.

I also continue to believe that the worse matters get in the United States with Biden at the helm the better Donald Trump looks to voters.

Let's look at some data that shows the electoral strength of Donald Trump.

Despite all that Trump has been through over the last eight years, his vote totals only went in one direction---UP---despite all the efforts that have been made by the media and political establishment to diminish and denigrate him over that time.

In addition, while Trump has now exceeded his vote total from 2020 by about 1 million votes, Kamala Harris is running about 10 million fewer votes than Joe Biden received four years ago---71.8 million vs. Biden's 81.3 million.

The real power of the Trump political brand is seen by comparing the votes for Trump to the Republican candidates for Senate in various states.

Let's look at a dozen high profile states that were either considered battleground states and/or had highly contested Senate races.

Six of these states were won by Democrat Senate candidates. Six were won by the Republican Senate candidates. 

In every one of these states Trump's margin in the state was better than the Republican candidate.

For example, in Minnesota, Trump only lost by 4.2 points but the Republican candidate for Senate lost to incumbent Amy Klobuchar by 15.8 points. Trump's margin was 11.6 points better.

In Montana, Tim Sheehy won by 7.4 points over incumbent Jon Tester. However, Trump won the state by 20.1 points over Harris, a 12.7 better point margin than Sheehy had.

However, Trump also ran 13.7 points better than incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer in Nebraska and 5.2 points better than two-term Senator Ted Cruz in Texas.

Trump ran 7.8 points better than Kari Lake in Arizona and 7.5 points better than Bernie Moreno in Ohio.

In these 12 states, Trump outperformed the Republican Senatorial candidate by an average margin of 6.2 points.

The experts that argued that Trump would lose and be a disaster for the Republican party could not have been more wrong.

Those that got it right were the Republican primary voters who were smarter than the experts.

A big reason for this was Trump's ability to turnout those disaffected voters.

There is little question that Trump is "The Titan of Turnout".

It is also interesting to take another look at the voter shifts between 2020 and 2024.

The graph below is based on the AP Vote Cast exit poll data.

This is a data set and differs somewhat from the CNN exit poll I referenced in my "Election Data Dump" post last week, 

Based on this data, you could also refer to Trump as "The Sultan of Shift".

Trump shifted large groups of minorities and younger voters to his side between 2020 and 2024 led by Black and Latino men and 18-29 age voters of all races.

The AP vote cast data shows that Trump gained 25 points with Black men, 21 points with 18-29 age voters and 19 points with Latino men.

However, he also saw significant gains with women, especially minority and single women.

Trump gained 12 points with Latino women, 7 points with white college women, 7 points with single women , 6 points with Black women and 3 points with married women

The only groups he was steady with or lost just a few points were older white voters that generally lived in urban areas with post-graduate degrees.

Credit: https://x.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1856315105589293101
(click to enlarge)

Trump won the election with the turnout of votes of groups that the Kamala Harris campaign argued were going to be victims of an oppressive racist, xenophobic, misogynistic Trump agenda.

Trump fared worse compared to 2020 with what is supposed to be the privileged, older white patriarchy that the Democrats continue to argue is engaged in systemic oppression in this society.

It seems that there were many voters who did not buy what Kamala Harris and the Democrats were selling.

There might be another lesson in all of this as well.

Donald Trump will assume office next year more popular and with greater broad-based support than in either of his other elections.

This is despite repeated efforts over the last decade to marginalize him, mute him, impeach him, bankrupt him and jail him.

This post on X provides just a few examples of how massive the effort was to undermine Trump.

At times it is difficult to remember all that Trump has had to endure.

Trump escaped all of these efforts to trap and thwart him like a modern-day Houdini.

It may be time to stop underestimating Donald J. Trump and find out what he can accomplish without constantly being harassed.

I would like to find out.

How about you?

It Doesn't Matter Who Is President

"It doesn't matter who is President."

This is something I have heard a lot over the years.

It is more prevalent with younger voters and those who often don't bother to vote.

It should not be forgotten that there are over 75 million people who are eligible to vote in the United States who have never bothered to register.

We are a mere five days after the 2024 Presidential election has been called.

Let's look at some headlines over the last few days.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/hamas-calls-immediate-end-war-after-trump-election-win-1981571

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mexico-s-migrant-caravan-breaking-up-after-trump-victory-sows-uncertainty/ar-AA1tHSCV?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=87d8a32c01404280bd579b537e28db2d&ei=56

Source: https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-chief-suggested-to-trump-buying-us-gas-instead-of-russia-s-451c5356

Source: https://fortune.com/asia/2024/11/06/china-says-it-hopes-for-peaceful-coexistence-with-u-s-as-trump-clinches-win/

Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/diplomat-says-qatar-pulling-out-of-gaza-mediation-role-confirms-hamas-to-be-ousted/

Source: https://abc7ny.com/post/new-york-city-ending-voucher-program-allowed-migrant-families-buy-own-food/15523750/

Source: https://thehill.com/policy/international/4979324-putin-congratulates-trump-election/

Source: https://deadline.com/2024/11/stock-market-surges-donald-trump-2024-election-1236169001/

Dow Jones Average chart over the last month.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI

S&P 500 over the last month.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX

Source: https://apnews.com/article/bitcoin-crypto-donald-trump-election-c2e2a1a895288c5e9c0df2721012a5bb

Bitcoin chart over the last month.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=?qfsearchterm

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/susie-wiles-will-be-first-female-white-house-chief-of-staff-223921733588

Some on X with tongue firmly placed in cheek note that Trump is already bringing down prices.

 

The string of headlines like those above caused the internet satire site The Babylon Bee to post this meme.

Will Trump have anything to do when he is actually inaugurated?

The unfortunate reality is that there is plenty to do.

In fact, despite the euphoria right now among his supporters, the odds are high that there are massive challenges ahead for Trump.

You can be sure that those in the Big State, Big Media and Big Tech will be challenging him at every turn.

Add to this group Big Pharma now that Trump has added Robert F. Kennedy to his team in order to Make America Healthy Again.

The odds are also high that we will see a major recession, stock market correction,  or expanded war in the Middle East, Europe or Asia over the next four years.

It will also be a miracle if we don't face a major federal debt crisis in that time.

Federal debt as a % of GDP is now higher than what it was right after we borrowed heavily to fight and win World War II.

At the end of 2023, U.S. debt was 121% of GDP. 

It peaked at 119% in 1946.

The debt taken on for World War II became manageable over time because the economies of most countries around the world were devastated by the war.  This allowed the United States to dominate the world economy with large annual increases in GDP.

We are in a much different position today.

We also have to consider the possibility that any crisis ahead could be significant enough that the future of our society itself could rest in the balance.

This was true in previous Fourth Turning crisis periods in American history---the Revolutionary War, The Civil War, Great Depression and World War II.

You may notice that these Fourth Turning crisis periods are all separated by about 80 years.

1945 + 80= 2025

(If you want to know more about The Fourth Turning theory regarding the cycles of history I did a three part series of blog posts on the subject in July of this year here, here and here).

A major reason that I voted for Donald Trump in last week's election was that I was very sensitive to the threats to our society that we may face in the next four years.

This is a time when we need strong, courageous and indomitable leadership.

This is a time when we need someone who will fight without flinching or fear.

This is a time we need someone who is battle-tested and who has had to get in the ring against the longest of odds and survived.

I don't believe there is another human being alive on earth today who has faced more adversity and challenges than Donald Trump has over the years in both business and politics.

And he is still standing.

I am also confident that he will be ready and able to meet any challenges ahead.

That was no the case with his opponent or anyone else in the Democrat party right now.

You may not like his bluster or brashness or his talk and tweets. 

However, if we get into a full-scale Fourth Turning crisis, you better thank God Donald Trump is your President for the next four years.

Trump's resolve and resilience may make all the difference in the world.

It doesn't matter who is President?

It matters. It matters a great deal.