For a long time there have been those who believed that the biggest threat to mankind was overpopulation.
The argument was that global population growth would outstrip global food and natural resources supplies and lead to starvation and ecological collapse.
The leading proponent of this thesis was Paul Ehrlich who was a Stanford professor who wrote a book in 1968 warning of upcoming catastrophe and calamity.
Ehrlich passed away earlier this year at the age of 93.
He was wrong about everything as this article by Jonah Goldberg of the American Enterprise Institute explains.
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| Source: https://www.aei.org/commentary/paul-ehrlich-was-wrong-about-everything/ |
“The Population Bomb” opens with a bold prediction, “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.”
“If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000,” Ehrlich prophesized during a speech in 1971. He also said that the U.S. would be rationing water by 1974, and food by 1980. That smog in L.A. and New York would cause some 200,000 deaths per year. That Americans born after World War II wouldn’t live past 50.
The only thing Ehrlich predicted that came true was the world did grow in population.
It was 3.6 billion at the time Ehrlich wrote his book. It is 8.3 billion today.
I wrote a blog post in 2019 explaining why Ehrlich's predictions failed to materialize titled "The Ultimate Resource".
Why was Ehrlich so wrong?
He vastly underestimated the most important resource in the world---human ingenuity and innovation.
That is the ultimate resource on the planet.
A prime example is the increase in food production over the years.
It has outstripped population growth on every continent due to human innovation and productivity.
What is now interesting is that the foundational fact underlying Ehrlich's entire thesis---that global population would continue to expand---is even under threat.
We are at a point where large portions of the planet have birth rates below the replacement level.
Several countries are already beyond peak population.
This has never happened before---not during wars, not during pandemics.
We are not producing children at a level necessary to replace ourselves.
These are countries where population appears to have peaked and is headed lower due to low birth rates.
These trends will accelerate as more of the Baby Boom generation passes away in coming years.
The total fertility (TFR) rate for the entire world is now estimated to be 2.2 sitting just slightly above the general population replacement level of 2.1.
Consider the fertility rates in some Asian countries.
Or these rates in Western societies.
All but Israel are below the replacement rate.
Israel is only able to have the TFR it does due to the Orthodox Jewish population in the country.
The most alarming fact in looking at the data is that births are the lowest in the countries that have been most responsible in providing the human ingenuity and innovation that propelled global advancement over the last several hundred years.
Consider the current distribution of the world's births.
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| Credit: https://x.com/dr_duchesne/status/2091538445713690697 |
India, by itself, has TWICE AS MANY births as the United States, Europe, Russia, Canada and Australia COMBINED. This is despite the fact that India's birth rate is below replacement at 1.9.
Almost one out of every five births in the world last year were in India.
To put this in better overall context, there are more children in India below the age of 18 (420 million) than the entire population of the United States. (343 million).
Pakistan has more births than Europe and Russia COMBINED.
Nigeria has more than TWICE AS MANY births as the United States despite having a total population that is only 2/3 the size of the U.S.
The ultimate irony in all of this is that those like Ehrlich, who predicted doom and gloom due to growing population, may discover the real existential crisis to humanity is not having enough of the ultimate resource that provided the ingenuity and innovation that helped the world advance.
The real problem is not a Population Bomb.
It is the Population Bombing like it is right now.



























































