Friday, May 29, 2026

Self Control and Success

A number of years ago I came across an experiment in which preschoolers were placed in a room with a delectable snack right in front of them---a marshmallow or cookie.

The child was told that the treat was for them.

However, at that point the person running the experiment told the child they had to leave the room for 15 minutes.

The youngster is told they can eat the treat now but if they wait until the adult gets back they can have two treats rather than just one.

The original experiment was done by Stanford psychologist Walter Mischell in 1970 to attempt to measure the extent that self gratification early in life predicts later life success.

It can be quite humorous watching what children go through in order to maintain self control.

The researchers generally found that the children that were the most successful at overcoming immediate self gratification did things to distract themselves from the prize in front of them.

Here is a YouTube video of a couple of kids that did the experiment in the U.K.



If the video does not play in your browser here is the link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8M7Xzjy_m8

I have done the experiment with all of my nine grandchildren.

Here is a photo from the first one I did with two of my older grandsons from almost a decade ago.

They both ended up with two marshmallows.




In follow up studies, Mischell found correlations between the results of the marshmallow experiment and success later in life.

Some have questioned the study and argued that a significant factor in whether a child in these experiments is willing to delay gratification is the level of trust they have in who made the promise.

Trust in believing there will really be a larger reward is undoubtedly a significant factor in delaying gratification that is right before you.

I recently came across another study (credit to https://x.com/sukh_saroy/status/2058099716790043074 who wrote a great summary of the research) that reinforced the importance of delayed gratification and self-control as a foundational element in a successful life.

It is referred to as The Dunedin Study that involved husband and wife researchers Avshalom Caspi and Terrie Moffitt.

It started in 1972 at a single hospital in Dunedin, New Zealand. Every baby born there in a 12-month window was enrolled. 1,037 of them in all. The study is still running 45 years later.

Incredibly, over 90 percent of the original participants are still being tracked. Most longitudinal studies like this fail to retain 50 percent of participants within 10 years.

The researchers measured everything. Blood. DNA. Brain scans. Income. Criminal records. Romantic relationships. Drug use. Dental health. Sleep. Mental health. Lung function. 

They flew participants who had moved abroad back to Dunedin every few years for a full day of assessments. Some of those people now live in seven different countries. They still show up.

Perhaps motivated by Mischell's research a few years before, the researchers also measured each child's self control.

They watched 3-year-olds in a research lab and rated their ability to wait, regulate frustration, follow instructions, and resist impulsive reactions. 

They added teacher ratings and parent ratings. They added the children's own self-reports as they grew older. They combined all of it into a single highly reliable score of self control

When those in the study reached age 32 they assessed adult outcomes for the group on their physical and mental conditions, substance dependence, financial difficulty, criminal convictions and single parenting.

Everything pointed to one critical element that separated those with successful vs. unsuccessful outcomes.

Self Control.

If you think about it, self control is central to so many of life's decision.

Do we choose yogurt or a doughnut for breakfast?

Do you choose to stay home and study the night before an exam or go to a party?

Do you go to bed with someone on the first date or kiss them on the cheek and go home?

Do you react with anger at the smallest offense or take it in stride?

Do you save for retirement or do you spend everything and more to live for today?

The study revealed that children with the highest self control traits had the best adult outcomes.

When they controlled for IQ, family income, social class, even the same parental upbringing (siblings), the result held.

In fact, it was also clear that the higher the self control scores were as children the better the outcomes as adults. Lower self control ended up with worse outcomes. There was a consistent correlation.

The finished paper they published in 2011 was plainly titled.

Source: https://dunedinstudy.otago.ac.nz/files/1651629222231.pdf

Those that want to diminish the study's findings argue that the conclusion sounds like a life sentence handed down to a child before they even start living due to one single inborn trait.

However, the authors pointed out in the study that while some children had naturally higher abilities at self control, they saw improvements in self control between childhood and adolescence. Those individuals  then ended up with adult outcomes far better than their early scores predicted.

Therefore, self control is not a fixed trait. It is a muscle than can be developed even through adulthood.

The reason adults struggle with money, weight, addiction, and relationships is rarely intelligence. It is the gap between what you want right now and what you want in ten years, and which side of that gap your nervous system is built to listen to.

However, self-control is the one childhood trait that nobody seem to focus on very much. Schools focus on test scores. Parents focus on activities for their kids or are too busy and do not have the patience to teach self control. Coaches focus on performance. The part of the brain that decides between five seconds from now and five years from now is left to develop on its own. 

The data shows it usually does not develop very well by itself.

This leads to the question as to what improving a child's self control at a young age would ultimately mean to society overall?

Better health outcomes. Less crime. More financial stability. Better personal relationships and fewer one-parent families. 

It would undoubtedly lead to a better society.

For example. consider the differences that were found in the study between low and high self control in childhood and the chances that an adult will end up being a single parent.

60% in the low self control quintile ended up in a single parent child rearing situation vs. less than 30% in the high self control cohort.

Source: https://dunedinstudy.otago.ac.nz/files/1651629222231.pdf


In the case of criminal convictions, the low self control group as children ended up with three times the criminal convictions as adults in the high self control group.


Source: https://dunedinstudy.otago.ac.nz/files/1651629222231.pdf


What I also found interesting in all of the research findings of the Dunedin Study is that the results and conclusions are clearly delineated in the Bible.

The Bible continually warns us about the need for self control, to avoid temptations of the flesh and to put our faith and trust in God.

A man without self-control
is like a city broken into and left without walls
Proverbs 25;28

But the fruit of the Spirit is love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness, self-control; against such things there is no law. And those who belong to Christ Jesus have crucified the flesh with its passions and desires.
Galatians 5:22–24

For this very reason, make every effort to supplement your faith with virtue, and virtue with knowledge, and knowledge with self-control, and self-control with steadfastness, and steadfastness with godliness, and godliness with brotherly affection, and brotherly affection with love. For if these qualities are yours and are increasing, they keep you from being ineffective or unfruitful in the knowledge of our Lord Jesus Christ. For whoever lacks these qualities is so nearsighted that he is blind, having forgotten that he was cleansed from his former sins.
2 Peter 1:5–9

For if you live according to the flesh you will die, but if by the Spirit you put to death the deeds of the body, you will live.
Romans 8:13

Proving once again there is nothing new under the sun.

Most everything that leads to success requires that you start with self control.

The Bible teaches it.

The Dunedin Study documented it.

As for you, after reading this put aside your own self control.

Forward this to someone who might benefit from this information.

Wednesday, May 27, 2026

The General and His Soldiers

I was invited to speak about my blog and observations about the current political environment at a local Republican party club meeting in May of 2016.

This was right at the point that Donald Trump looked to have wrapped up the votes needed to be the Republican party nominee for President that year.

The meeting was attended by most of the local, county and area Republican officeholders.

In short, officeholders that were almost all beholden to the Republican establishment.

They all viewed themselves as the Republican party.

I saw the discomfort in most of them that night as they attempted to process the fact that the outsider, Donald Trump, was going to represent the Republican party in the 2016 election.

Keep in mind that the Ohio Governor at the time, John Kasich, had been the last to defiantly march on as a virulently anti-Trump candidate despite the fact that Trump won primary after primary election.

A main theme of my talk that night was raising the question as to whether "The Fourth Turning" had set the stage for the political success of Donald Trump.

You can read my blog post "Has The Fourth Turning Brought Us Trump" written on May 10, 2016 if you are interested.

I pointed out the uncanny list of themes that the authors of the book The Fourth Turning had predicted would make a successful political candidate as we entered that cycle of history.

Keep in mind that The Fourth Turning was published in 1997.

Those themes closely matched Trump's campaign rhetoric two decades later.

These were the winning trends from a political standpoint for a politician in The Fourth Turning according to the authors, Neil Howe and William Strauss.

  • Calls to close the gap between rich and poor
  • Reverse the decline of the middle class
  • Expand children's programs relative to senior programs
  • Restore an ethic of personal responsibility
  • De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies
  • Promote traditional values
  • America will become more isolationist than today in it unwillingness to coordinate with other countries 
  • America will be less globally dependent than it is today with smaller cross-border trade and capital flows
  • The economic role of government will shift toward far more spending on defense and public works than on elder care and debt service.

I then stated this.

Look at some of the words above and see if you don't agree that in some ways it seems as if Trump has a keen understanding of where we are and what people are looking for. 

It is as if he is looking ahead and the Republican establishment can only see what is behind them.


"Decisive action".  There is very little gray in Trump's outlook.

"Assert public authority."  Think about Trump's views on eminent domain.

"Aggravate rather than alleviate societal pressures." Trump's views and statements on immigration.

"Reverse the decline of the middle class."  His major voting target is forgotten working class voters.

"De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies."  His call to consider the de-funding of NATO.

"Promote traditional values."  "Make America Great Again." 

"More isolationist."  Very consistent with his views on the Middle East.

"Less globally dependent".  His attacks on NAFTA, China, Japan on trade.

"Defense and Infrastructure."  Two of Trump's favorite topics in every speech. 


When I went over all of this in my speech I could see the obvious unease among the Republican officeholders in the room rise even further.

At the time, the Republican establishment in Ohio and elsewhere were saying that Trump did not represent the Republican party.

The Republican officeholders in that room were soon going to have to decide whether they were on or off the Trump Train.

There was real risk in choosing whether they were with him or against him especially considering that their Governor was against him. The decision they made could end up being a career-ender. 

Seeing all of this I told them I understood the difficult position they were in.

However, I reminded them of one important fact.

The people are sovereign in our system. Their power is absolute  Unfortunately, too many people don't believe it. The simple fact is that politicians have no power unless the people provide it.

Laws that do not have public backing do not survive over the long term. Lawmakers who make laws that people do not support do not stay in office very long. Politicians who do not do the will of the people soon need to find other employment.

The reality was that the Republican officeholders did not determine what the Republican party stood for---the people who vote do.

I told them that I did not know whether Trump would win or not in November.

The only thing I knew for sure was that if he won the Republican party would change with him whether they liked it or not.

And that would be the case until the people decided they no longer backed Donald Trump and his agenda.

As it turned out, no truer words were ever spoken to that group.

Trump ended up winning Ohio in the general election by 8 points in 2016.

He proved he not only had a majority of Ohio Republican voters but an absolute majority of all Ohio voters supporting his "Make America Great Again: policies.

He won by 8 points again in 2020 and by 11 points in 2024.

Nobody hears anything about John Kasich anymore. 

Trump has transformed the Republican party in his own image.

The transformation is even more profound than what we witnessed in the Reagan Revolution.

Consider what has just transpired over the last month.

Five incumbent Republican state senators who voted against a House redistricting plan that would have favored Republicans were defeated in primary elections when Trump endorsed the challengers.

A sixth incumbent Republican defeated a challenger by a mere 3 votes in which a recount has been requested.




Incumbent Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy placed third in a Republican primary to Trump-endorsed Julia Letlow and challenger John Fleming who will face off in a runoff election next month.

Cassidy had voted to convict Trump in the impeachment related to January 6th.

Republican 7-term Congressman Thomas Massie from Kentucky was defeated in a primary election against Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein.

Massie had invoked anger from many for voting against major Trump agenda items including the Big Beautiful Bill and the Border Wall.

Finally, four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn was defeated in the Texas Republican Senate primary last night after Trump endorsed Ken Paxton.

The headline from The New York Times this morning.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/us/politics/texas-republican-senate-cornyn-paxton.html



Paxton won 64%-36% despite reportedly being outspent 10:1.

That alone tells you the value of Trump's endorsement.

Some argue that Trump should not be interceding against members of his own party.

He should not be using his power to oust members of his own party.

They are missing the point.

Trump is powerless by himself in these situations.

The voters have all the power.

They were not happy that these incumbents did not support Trump or his agenda.

Trump has transformed the Republican party in the last 10 years since he entered politics in a way few  could have imagined was possible.

He did not do it himself.

Trump understood better than anyone that people were not looking to see "business as usual' in Washington.

However, Trump can only deliver a message. The muscle comes from people who vote.

Trump is like a General. He can put together a battle plan but it will only succeed if the soldiers carry out the plan.

Unlike many other countries, in the United States the people do not have not to just submit to their leaders. They have the power to do as they choose.

Those soldiers also do not have to fear being punished, court martialed or shot if they choose to not align with the plan

In the end, Trump will only succeed on the issues when the people have his back.

Trump may be the General but the voters are the King.

The loss of those who crossed Trump sends a message to all of the other Republicans.

Cross him and his agenda and you put your political future at risk.

The last month shows that Trump still has the support of the vast majority of Republicans.

However, a recent Fox News poll shows that Trump's overall approval among Republicans has dropped to 80% amid a slide with all voters to a new low of 36%.


Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-economic-pain-deepens-disapproval-trump-hits-new-high



Underlying that disapproval is 77% of all voters in that poll saying the economy is in bad shape.

That poll finding is supported by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey that recently hit its lowest level ever.

I wrote in my last blog that no one should take the economic sentiments in those polls seriously.

They are not based on current economic reality.

The polls are really only measuring political sentiment.

There is little doubt that Trump has suffered as a result of the Iran conflict thus far.

Gas prices up. Inflation ticking up as a result.

The on again, off again messaging on whether there is a deal or no deal with Iran only creates further confusion and lack of confidence in voters.

The only saving grace for Trump right now is that voters in almost all polls view the Democrats just as unfavorably as the President.

Trump's overall net favorability according to the Real Clear Politics  composite average is -18.5% compared to -18.8% for Democrats. Republicans generally are -17.1%.

The voters do not view any politician favorably right now.

We also are almost six months from the midterm elections.

Six months is an eternity in politics.

A lot can happen between now and November.

The only thing that is certain is that people are sovereign in our system.

They will make the final call on the type of leaders they want whether or not they are the leaders they need.

The bigger question right now might be who wins if the voters are unhappy with all of their choices?

Monday, May 25, 2026

Consumer or Political Sentiment?

The University of Michigan has been conducting a Consumer Sentiment Index since 1966.

The Index of Consumer Expectations seeks to find how consumers view three things:

  • Their own financial situation
  • The short-term general economy
  • The long-term general economy

The index is normalized with a value of 100 equal to the consumer sentiment in the first quarter of 1966 when the first survey of consumers was conducted.

I have followed the Consumer Sentiment Index for a number of years but recently I have begun questioning how much validity it has.

Is it truly measuring consumer sentiment or has it become nothing more than a tool that reflects back political sentiment from an increasingly divided body politic?

Consider the most recent release.

The Consumer Sentiment Index for May, 2026 is reported to be the lowest it has been in the 60 years it has been tracked with a value of 44.8.

Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

That is driven in large part by the consumer viewing current economic conditions as the worst it has been since 1966.


Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Think about that.

That is lower than during any recession the last 60 years.

Lower than the 1979-1981 period when we had double digit inflation for three consecutive years.

Lower than the early 1980's when mortgage rates hit 18%.

Lower than the period between late 1982 and early 1983 when the employment rate was more than 10%.

Lower than when the entire economy was shut down with Covid.

Lower than in 2022 when inflation was running at over 8% per year.

Let's compare that with actual facts and data on the economy right now.

The unemployment rate is 4.3%.

It is one of the better unemployment numbers in the last 50 years.


The inflation rate is 3.8%.

It has increased over the last two month due to gas prices but it is still substantially lower than it was four years ago.



The national average price for a gallon of gas on this Memorial Day weekend is $4.50 per gallon.


Source: https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts


It was around $3.00 per gallon before the Iran conflict started.

However, gas prices surged to over 5.00 per gallon under Biden.

Prices were also $3.72 per gallon in 2012 under Obama.

As I pointed out in an earlier blog post, $3.72 per gallon adjusted for inflation would be $5.40 per gallon today.

We have a growing economy.

First quarter 2026 GDP increased from the last quarter of 2025.

It is also growing faster than almost the entire 2010-2020 period after we were coming out of the Great Recession.



There has not been a sustained recession (ignoring the self-inflicted Covid downturn) in the United States since 2009.

It is the longest period without a downturn in economic activity in United States history.

Consumer spending was up 0.9% in March and 0.6% in February.


Source: https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main


Even including increased gas prices in April, consumer spending growth was strong according to a Bank of America analysis.

Source: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-may-2026.html


Source: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-may-2026.pdf

Think about what you see around you on a daily basis.

Do any of you go to restaurants, malls, Costco, the airport and other places that are not crowded with people spending money?

Finally, the stock market is at record highs.

The S&P 500 is up 26% in the last 12 months and 9% year-to-date.



How could consumer sentiments in the index regarding economic conditions be so far removed from reality?

A lot of it is tied to political sentiment.

Democrats thought the economy was doing great during the Biden administration.

A 100 index score quickly has become a 37 under Trump.

Source: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/110440/us-michigan-consumer-current-index-within-political-party

At the same time, Republican voters gave economic conditions under a huge thumbs down under Biden which rebounded as soon as Trump was elected.

Notice how there has been a disparity in sentiment by party since political party association was first tracked by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey beginning in 2017.

However, that disparity has gotten to be huge in the last three years.

The negative consumer sentiment also continues into expectations in the survey.

Consumer expectations for the future are also lower in the survey than at any time in the last 60 years other than the 1979-1981 period when we were in the midst of three consecutive years of double digit inflation and a recession on top of it---STAGFLATION.

The University of Michigan has taken note of the increased political divide in its consumer sentiment index but argues that the numbers are valid because the sentiment of political Independents in the index largely tracks polling of all consumers nationally in other surveys.


Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/independents202605.pdf

However, this data is still at odds with the reality of facts and data of current economic conditions.

Who could really argue that economic conditions today are worse than when Covid shut down the economy in 2020 and 2021 or when we had 8% inflation in 2022?

Something else is at work here.

My guess is that consumer sentiment ends up being more a reflection of the narrative created in the mainstream and social media rather than actual facts on the ground

What have been some of those narratives since Trump took office again in January, 2025?

Trump's tariffs are going to cause inflation.

Trump's tariffs are going to wreck the economy.

AI is going to put everyone out of work.

Data centers to run AI are going to consume all U.S energy energy and result in huge utility rate increases.

The Mideast is going to end up in all out war due to Trump standing up to Iran and gas prices will go through the roof.

Who is most susceptible to headlines like these?

Independent voters who do not pay as much attention to the issues and the context around them.

All that being said, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index findings right now should be a cautionary tale for all of us.

What have we become if sentiments and feelings override real facts?

What chance do we have if people ignore the reality that surrounds them but are willing to be manipulated by news headlines and social media?

Why can't we return to a point where we assess facts and make decisions based on the real world rather than our biased political leanings?

When political sentiments control anything and everything in a society you are on a slippery slope to a slow death.

Friday, May 22, 2026

This and That---May 22, 2026 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Top Tier Blogger

It is reported that there are 600 million blogs online.

I noted in my blog post yesterday that May, 2026 has already seen BeeLine receiving more views than in any month since I began writing.

BeeLine has been averaging almost 5,000 views per day in May, 2026.

That will translate into 100,000-150,000 views for the month.

This may seem small when viewed compared to the major blog sites out there.

However, with 600 million blogs it is not easy to capture views in the blogosphere.

The largest blog sites capture tens of millions of views led by SkySports that generally reports soccer news.

People.com is considered the second largest blog site.


Most Popular Blogs
Source: https://www.wix.com/blog/blogging-statistics-and-facts


From my perspective, I do not even consider these as blogs.

I would define them as news consolidation sites.

BeeLine is not going to ever compete with soccer or celebrities for views.

The most popular blog topics are largely related to personal topics---food, health, beauty, parenting, travel, etc.


Source: https://www.goatsontheroad.com/blog-topics-that-make-money/


BeeLine might touch on these areas once in a while (see orange juice below).

However, these are not the topics where I typically need to bring facts and data to put these issues into better context.

My audience is a more select group who are more interested in a deeper dive at issues that go beyond narratives, headlines and emotions.

The comment I received from Ross yesterday makes me feel very good about what I write about.




Let's put BeeLine's reach this month into better context.

With 600 million blogs out there on the internet what does it take to be considered in the top tier when it comes to audience views?

I went to Google AI for the answer.


Thank you BeeLine readers.

You have made BeeLine a top 1% tier blog.


Where Have The Oranges Gone?

Many of you are familiar with this carton on your breakfast room table.





However, are you aware that Florida is now only producing 5% of the oranges it did 30 years ago?

Brazil produces 70% of the world's orange juice supply today.

Mexico is far behind in second place ahead of the U.S.
Global Leaders in Orange Juice Production 2025/2026
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1044896/world-orange-juice-major-producers/?srsltid=AfmBOoqbyKYPINcFOi9H9Mwr69yClVYdVVOPd0vkBtVtZ_82apNvzUzP


What happened to Florida oranges?



Florida's Natural orange juice is no longer 100% Florida Premium.

It is now a blend of Florida and Mexican oranges.

From the Florida's Natural website.


Covid is not the only disease that came from Asia.


Religion in Iran and the United States

Iran is governed and controlled by a Shia Muslim theocracy.

The official name for the country is the Islamic Republic of Iran.

However, less than one-third of the country identifies as a follower of the Shi'ite Muslim faith.

Just another 5% identify as Sunni Muslims.





Therefore, more than 60% of Iranians are living under the control, laws and restrictions of a religious regime to which they have no affiliation with.

They are trapped within a extremist religious regime that is representative a distinct minority of the country's population.

Some claim that this survey was biased in that it was done online and slanted to those with internet access.

However, even if the % of Muslims in Iran is understated somewhat, contrast that with the United States.

The United States is overwhelmingly a Christian nation.

Almost 80% of the population identify as a Christian.

Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Religions_of_the_United_States_pie_chart.svg

The irony in all of this is that in the United States a very large Christian majority has been increasingly marginalized over the years while in Iran a minority of Shia Muslims rule the Iranian people with an iron hand.




The Conquest of Europe

Meanwhile, in Europe...



Ironically, over the same period at least 50,000 mosques in Iran have closed.




Nothing seems to destroy Islam more than having to live under its strict dictates and rules.

Is this why so many want to move to Western countries?


Beware The Heat

"Packing the Heat" is a slang expression used in the United States to refer to carrying a gun.

It is something Europeans have a hard time understanding with their strict gun laws.

They cannot understand the number of deaths by gun violence there are annually in the United States.

Those in the United States do not understand the aversion that Europeans have for air conditioning.

About 20% of European buildings have air conditioning compared to 90% of homes in the United States.

The widespread European resistance to air conditioning is often attributed to higher energy costs, green policies restricting installations, and cultural preferences for passive cooling.

Which is more dangerous to human life?

Packing heat in the United States or attempting to survive the heat of summer in Europe without AC?

You probably did not expect this answer.




Stay cool in the coming months with a tall, cool glass of Florida orange juice.

Thursday, May 21, 2026

The Shale Revolution-Redux

I am republishing my blog post from yesterday on "The Shale Revolution" as I became aware of a problem with the email distribution this week.

I use the vendor Follow.it to distribute the blog post content I write.

For that service I personally pay for their premium option to provide you the content under the BeeLine label without any advertising.  I have never sought to monetize anything to do with my blog and have no desire to ever charge a subscription fee to access the content. 

BeeLine will always be free.

Due to an error, my premium option was changed to the Follow.it basic option that is a free service but is delivered under the Follow.it name and also contains advertising.

A number of you got this week's content under that option.

Several others told me that they did not receive the emails at all this week.

For that reason, I am republishing yesterday's blog post.

If you missed Monday's post, "The Collapse of Connection" you can access it here.

I apologize for any confusion. 

Thank you again for subscribing to BeeLine.

Despite the distribution problems, this month has seen the highest readership of my blog for any month since I starting writing over 15 years ago.

BeeLine has averaged almost 5,000 views per day so far in May, 2026 despite the hiccup.

I know many of you also forward my blog posts on through email to others which are not captured in the statistics covering the blog website.

That number of views may seem modest when viewed in the enormity of the social media space but it is gratifying to me that there are so many interesting in fact-based content that attempts to put the issues of the day in their proper context.

I sincerely appreciate all of you. 

Thank you.


The Shale Revolution

(originally published May 20, 2026)

It is incredible to see how the United States has been transformed from the largest importer of oil in the world to the one of the largest exporters of oil over the last 20 years.





None of this would have been possible without The Shale Revolution.

In the 2005-2010 period the United States was importing as much as 450 million barrels of oil per month while exporting less than 50 million. A trade deficit of 400 million barrels per month.

Today the United States is a net exporter of oil that totals about 100 million barrels per month.

This is largely due to the shale revolution that, more than anything, has made the United States energy independent. 

The United States has also become the largest oil producer in the world.
 
In fact, the United States now produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia (#2 and #3) COMBINED.





It is also allowing President Trump to negotiate deals with Europe, China and others to buy our oil and gas and reduce our overall trade deficit.


Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-china-wants-buy-oil-us-2026-05-15/



Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-share-europes-lng-imports-increased-60-january-2026-01-30/


Natural gas from shale drilling has also saved American consumers trillions of dollars in energy bills over the last 20 years.

A recent analysis by UC Berkeley's Energy Institute at Haas concluded that cheaper natural gas due to shale drilling in the United States had resulted in around $5 trillion in savings for natural gas consumers since 2007.





Let it not be forgotten that none of this would have occurred if liberal Democrats had their way.

When Donald Trump ran for President in 2016 he often referred to his energy policy this way,

"Drill Baby Drill".

At the same time, Democrats such as Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were opposed to exploration of shale oil and gas.

Democrat-run New York is one of the liberal states that bans fracking exploration for shale oil and gas despite having some of the largest reserves in the United States within its borders.




When Barack Obama was President in 2012 he said that "we can't just drill our way to lower gas prices".

He said that at a time when gas prices nationally were $3.72 per gallon.

The Shale Revolution proved Obama wrong.

We did drill our way to lower prices. 

This chart of U.S. crude oil production shows how it was done..

The United States is producing over twice as much crude oil as it did in 2012.

Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_field_production


Natural gas production in North America has increased from 65 BCF (billion cubic feet) in 2010 to 110 BCF day.

That increase is almost entirely due to The Shale Revolution.

This is the major reason as to why natural gas consumers in the United States saved $5 trillion over the last 20 years.
 

Credit: https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2056845087653417019



For most of the last 15 years gas prices at the pump have been well below that $3.72 Obama-era price due to U.S. drilling of shale oil reserves.

Increased supply kept gas prices in check.

For some portions of the first Trump term, gas prices actually were below $2 per gallon.


Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W



Adjusted for inflation, that $3.72 price for a gallon of gas in 2012 would be $5.40 today.




Yes, gas prices are high right now due to what is going on with Iran but the enhanced national and economic security that the shale revolution has provided to the United States cannot be overstated.

It is yet another reminder how important it is on who we elect as our representatives.

If you think it is bad right now, you really have no idea how bad it could have been if the shale revolution was never allowed to evolve.

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

The Shale Revolution

It is incredible to see how the United States has been transformed from the largest importer of oil in the world to the one of the largest exporters of oil over the last 20 years.





None of this would have been possible without The Shale Revolution.

In the 2005-2010 period the United States was importing as much as 450 million barrels of oil per month while exporting less than 50 million. A trade deficit of 400 million barrels per month.

Today the United States is a net exporter of oil that totals about 100 million barrels per month.

This is largely due to the shale revolution that, more than anything, has made the United States energy independent. 

The United States has also become the largest oil producer in the world.
 
In fact, the United States now produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia (#2 and #3) COMBINED.





It is also allowing President Trump to negotiate deals with Europe, China and others to buy our oil and gas and reduce our overall trade deficit.


Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-china-wants-buy-oil-us-2026-05-15/


Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-share-europes-lng-imports-increased-60-january-2026-01-30/


Natural gas from shale drilling has also saved American consumers trillions of dollars in energy bills over the last 20 years.

A recent analysis by UC Berkeley's Energy Institute at Haas concluded that cheaper natural gas due to shale drilling in the United States had resulted in around $5 trillion in savings for natural gas consumers since 2007.





Let it not be forgotten that none of this would have occurred if liberal Democrats had their way.

When Donald Trump ran for President in 2016 he often referred to his energy policy this way,

"Drill Baby Drill".

At the same time, Democrats such as Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were opposed to exploration of shale oil and gas.

Democrat-run New York is one of the liberal states that bans fracking exploration for shale oil and gas despite having some of the largest reserves in the United States within its borders.




When Barack Obama was President in 2012 he said that "we can't just drill our way to lower gas prices".

He said that at a time when gas prices nationally were $3.72 per gallon.

The Shale Revolution proved Obama wrong.

We did drill our way to lower prices. 

This chart of U.S. crude oil production shows how it was done..

The United States is producing over twice as much crude oil as it did in 2012.

Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_field_production


Natural gas production in North America has increased from 65 BCF (billion cubic feet) in 2010 to 110 BCF day.

That increase is almost entirely due to The Shale Revolution.

This is the major reason as to why natural gas consumers in the United States saved $5 trillion over the last 20 years.
 

Credit: https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2056845087653417019



For most of the last 15 years gas prices at the pump have been well below that $3.72 Obama-era price due to U.S. drilling of shale oil reserves.

Increased supply kept gas prices in check.

For some portions of the first Trump term, gas prices actually were below $2 per gallon.


Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W


Adjusted for inflation, that $3.72 price for a gallon of gas in 2012 would be $5.40 today.




Yes, gas prices are high right now due to what is going on with Iran but the enhanced national and economic security that the shale revolution has provided to the United States cannot be overstated.

It is yet another reminder how important it is on who we elect as our representatives.

If you think it is bad right now, you really have no idea how bad it could have been if the shale revolution was never allowed to evolve.