The Best and Brightest?

We are told that the best and brightest among us can be found on the campuses of elite colleges and universities like those in the Ivy League, Stanford and Amherst.

Is that true anymore?

Consider the percentage of students claiming disabilities and the startling increase in the numbers at some of these elite colleges and universities over the last decade.

Stanford.       38%

Amherst.       34%

Brown.          22%

Cornell.         22%

Chicago.        21%

Yale.              20%

Credit: https://americaninequality.substack.com/p/accommodating-the-elite-ignoring

At UC Berkeley the number of students who report having a disability has quintupled in the last 15 years.

Claims for disability accommodations are not limited to the most elite colleges and universities.

Pace University in New York reports that 37% of its students have a disability, up from 5% in 2015.

Hampshire College in Massachusetts has 38%, up from 10% a decade ago.

Scripps College in California has seen it numbers go from 11% to 36%.

For context, the number of students at community colleges that typically report having a disability has remained flat over the last decade at 3%-4%.

What is the explanation for the surge in disability claims? 

Mental health experts claim that the increase is due to better diagnosis and less stigma for conditions such as ADHD, autism, anxiety disorders and depression.

This may be true but a big reason seems to be the fact that in 2008 the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) was broadened to include conditions that limited life activities such as thinking, concentrating, reading and communicating to be covered disabilities.

This led the Association on Higher Education and Disability (AHEAD), an organization of disability-services staff, to release guidance urging universities to give greater weight to students’ own accounts of how their disability affected them, rather than relying solely on a medical diagnosis.

This was all it took for college administrators, who generally have a liberal mindset, to grant almost any disability requests that are made by students.

The remedy for someone with a disability is some type of accommodation.

At these colleges if it is ADHD, autism of anxiety it typically might mean more time to take a test or turn in an assignment or being allowed to take the exam home or in a quiet room without distractions.

This then results in a cascade effect.

In a competitive environment, if others are doing it and you are not, you end up being the loser.

You end being stupid if you don't game the system.

This young woman at Stanford tells her story of how the system works at Stanford.

Source: https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/40-percent-stanford-undergraduates-claim-disabled-sw99r3k8c

Are these the values we want from our best and brightest?

We used to live in a world where having a disability was so stigmatized that many with a disability did everything in their power to try to overcome it so as to blend in.

Those with a disability worked harder as they wanted to prove they could do almost anything any other person could.

We have now reached a point where the opposite is true. 

Those with the most ability are claiming disability to further their natural advantages.

Of course, all of these disability accommodations then further diminishes those that have real significant physical or mental disabilities.

All of this also reinforces a statement I have made often in these pages.

Incentives drive behavior.

There is one absolute when considering human behavior.

Human beings respond to incentives. We quickly understand what is in our interest and what is not, and we respond accordingly. We will act in accordance with what is in our best interest. Period.

If the incentives for people are properly aligned, you will get the behavior and result you want.  If the incentives are not properly aligned, you will get poor results.  Whenever you get a poor result it is likely that you will find that the underlying incentives were not aligned properly.

None of this would be possible but for the college administrators that are allowing it to occur.

This leads to another story that caught my eye recently about the best and brightest at Brown University.

Economics Professor Roberto Serrano has taught a undergraduate course on "Welfare Economics and Social Choice" for much of the 34 years he has been at Brown University.

This is the background for the story in Serrano's words.

In part due to the tragic shooting that took place at Brown on December 13 during a review session for a final exam, I decided to move my course’s two exams—the midterm and the final—from an in-class exam to a take-home, closed-book format. I thought that would help students deal with exam anxiety. The exams would be made available to students through an online portal, and they would have 11 hours (for a two-hour test) to complete and submit each. Unsurprisingly, the course enrollment jumped to 86, far above 30, the highest maximum in previous semesters.

On the midterm exam, the average grade was 96 with 40 students obtaining perfect test scores.

This compared to class averages of between 65 and 80 on midterm exam scores in previous years.

Serrano suspected cheating.

He noted that there were a lot of answers on the exam that included passages that closely matched what he found when he provided the questions to ChatGPT.

Serrano told the class of his suspicions but stated that he would not void the midterm exam scores.

However, he stated that the final exam would be in person.

If the grade distribution of the final was similar to the midterm he would average both scores.

However, if there was a large difference he would void the midterm grade completely for the entire class and the final exam alone would constitute the course grade.

What happened next with the best and brightest?

18 students immediately dropped the course learning the final exam would not be taken at home..

Another 9 students did not even show up for the final.

3 students took the exam but merely signed their name and turned it in blank.

The average fell from 96 to 48---the lowest in the course's history.

More than half did not score above 50%.

Source: https://www.insidehighered.com/news/faculty/learning-assessment/2026/07/08/brown-professor-suspects-most-his-class-used-ai-cheat

 

In reviewing the graph above, I can see only two students who appear to be scrupulously honest.

Student 1---scored 95.5 on the midterm and 95 on the final.

Student 22---scored 55 on the midterm and 59.5 on the final--the only student to score higher on the final than on the midterm. That is one honest and hardworking kid that deserves some type of award.

However, they probably ended up with a D because Professor Serrano set the failing grade at 50.

What's the worst part of this?

Serrano reported the obvious cheating to the Brown administration and characterized its response as "meek".

In May, Serrano submitted the data shown above to Brown’s Standing Committee on the Academic Code and received no response. After he went public with his story in late June, the committee, through his department chair, asked Serrano to submit individual complaints against each student suspected of cheating, including copies of their exams, he said.

“What they are asking is ridiculous … I believe they plan to run them through some AI-detection tool, which is well-known to give many false positives and false negatives,” he said. “Their response, I must tell you, is seen as appalling and insufficient by hundreds of people who have emailed me in support, many of them Brown alumni.”

As colleges and universities grapple with AI, cheating must be taken seriously, Serrano said. “We cannot afford to have a society in which a significant fraction of our best young minds think that cheating is OK,” he said. “That leads to a declining society, to a failed society … We cannot choose to become idiots.”

Keep in mind that the "best and brightest" are supposed to be our next generation of lawyers, doctors and government leaders.

Is a client supposed to agree to a lawyer billing double the hours because he needs more time to complete the task due to ADHD?

A pre-Med student claims they need to take their exams in a quiet room because they are too easily distracted in a crowded classroom. How does that work out if they end up being a doctor in a chaotic emergency room?

Will we ever have a political leader again who can speak on their feet without AI writing their speech?

Are we grooming our young  people in our colleges and universities today to be the best and brightest?

Or just a bunch of idiots devoid of values?

California Nighmare

The Mama's and Papa's song California Dreamin' was the #1 song on the Billboard end of year survey for 1966.

The song was written by John and Michelle Phillips when they were living in New York City during a cold winter and missing sunny California.

The lyrics of the song begin this way.

All the leaves are brown (all the leaves are brown)

And the sky is gray (and the sky is gray)

I've been for a walk (I've been for a walk)

On a winter's day (on a winter's day)

I'd be safe and warm (I'd be safe and warm)

If I was in LA (if I was in LA)

The weather is still generally warm in California.

It is debatable on how safe it is in parts of LA.

However, the dreamin' is definitely dying under the weight of compounding financial and other challenges in the state that have been almost entirely self inflicted due to liberal policies.

California is looking more like a nightmare than a dream in 2026.

Governor Gavin Newsom recently approved a $352 billion budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1.

That level of spending is an increase of 10% from last year and is 72% higher than when Newsom took office eight years ago while the population is essentially unchanged over the last decade.

That compares to an overall national inflation rate of 29% over the same period.

California is facing a future structural budget deficit of $35 billion per year according to the state legislature's financial advisor..

However, this assumes that state revenues will continue at the same pace as they have in recent years which have been fueled by outsized personal income tax receipts due to AI stock market gains.

The state's top 1% earners pay about 50% of state income taxes but a proposed wealth tax has caused a number of high earners to flee the state.

At the same time, California owes the federal government over $20 billion it borrowed for unemployment claims during Covid that has not been repaid.

It is the only state that borrowed money from the feds that has not repaid the loan.

Source: https://www.abc10.com/article/news/politics/california-employers-face-higher-taxes-as-ui-debt-tops-20-billion/103-4d90ab3a-5ec9-4e6f-a336-e5ebc9cc43c8

California also faces mounting unfunded pension obligations,

20 years ago these obligations were fully funded.

It is now estimated that these pension obligations are underfunded by over $250 billion,

Source: https://equable.org/resource/california-pensions-calpers-calstrs-2025/

A financial nightmare is a certainty in California if the economy or stock market has a slight wobble.

In Los Angeles, county officials are warning that the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) is facing insolvency by next year due to a projected $230 million deficit.

Source: https://abc7.com/post/los-angeles-unified-school-district-faces-potential-insolvency-county-officials-warn-could-run-money-year/19478950/

The Los Angeles Unified School District could run out of money within about a year and is showing severe signs of financial distress, according to county education authorities.

The nation's second-largest school district, which serves more than half a million students, faces possible insolvency, prompting the Los Angeles County Office of Education to take action.

"I think it's something everyone was hoping would be avoided, but I don't think it's really a surprise to anyone," educational consultant Jamie Bacall said.

County officials said LAUSD is projected to be more than $230 million in the hole by November of next year. In response, the county superintendent has appointed a fiscal expert and given the school board 45 days to fix its budget.

What has caused the problem?

Student enrollment is only about half of what it was in the early 2000's.

At the same time, total staff has increased by 10%  over the same period.

Source: Google AI

Compounding the problems, the school board just approved new union contracts covering multiple employee unions.

Those contracts are projected to raise costs by $1.13 billion in the upcoming school year and by $1.44 billion in 2027-28.

Employee unions downplay the warnings stating that they expect the state to provide more funding.

I guess they have not been paying much attention to what the numbers look like in Sacramento.

They are also not paying much attention to demographic trends which suggest there is going to be a need to cut school spending a lot over the next decade due to further enrollment declines.

California will lead the nation in enrollment losses according to this data.

The financial problems in California even extend to the beautiful and tony coastal enclave of Santa Monica that abuts Los Angeles.

20 years ago it would have been unthinkable that Santa Monica would have financial problems.

This was the headline in a recent Wall Street Journal story on the city.

At first glance, this picturesque coastal enclave bordering Los Angeles appears to have it all: palm trees along a famed shopping promenade, wide beaches and a wealthy tax base.

Instead, Santa Monica is in recovery mode. It is trying to bounce back from a string of problems—mounting liability settlements, falling international tourism and years of fading retail businesses—that led the city of roughly 90,700 to declare “fiscal distress” in September. 

There are just not many people dreamin' to be in California anymore.

Liberal policies are destroying a state with tremendous natural advantages and turning it into a nightmare.

Illegal immigration openly encouraged and protected.

Doing little to curb open drug use.

Homeless encampments that are tolerated.

Failure to police and curb crime.

Overregulation.

In addition, consider the tax environment in the state,

The top marginal tax rate in the state is now 14.4%--the highest in the country.

However, even a single filer making $71,000 must pay a tax rate of 9.3%.

Source: Grok

The average state and local sales tax rate is 8.99% but the rate in the city of Los Angeles will be 10.25% effective October 1, 2026.

The state gas tax is the highest in the nation---63.4 cents per gallon.

Despite it all, California is still heading towards financial disaster.

A day of reckoning is on the horizon.  The cliff draws closer.  

The big question is what happens when they go over the cliff?  

Bankruptcy is not an option as states are prohibited by federal law of going that route. 

You can be sure that there will be calls for a federal California bailout if it gets bad enough,  

This may be the biggest unspoken issue that will be before us in the next decade.

Who is sitting in The White House and in Congress will make an enormous difference when the time comes.  

20% of all House Democrats alone are currently from California.

That number will probably be even higher after the 2026 mid-term election.

If the Democrats are in power they will be highly motivated to write any checks necessary to keep California afloat.

You may believe California is not your problem.

The reality is that California's nightmare might become all of ours at some point.

 

A More Perfect Union

We just finished celebrating the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

This led to the Revolutionary War, victory over the United Kingdom and the eventual adoption of the United States Constitution in 1787.

A lot of people today like to denigrate the United States and the men who wrote that foundational document for the country.

It seems to me that most of them take for granted the freedoms that are guaranteed therein.

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

In many other countries in the world we would never hear complaints like these because there is no freedom of speech.

Consider this data on the number of reported arrests in various countries in 2023 for online/social media posts that violated government laws.

Leading the list is the country from which we just celebrated gaining independence from.

The UK arrested more people for social media posts than China, Russia, and Turkey combined under the provisions of its Communications Act and Malicious Communications Act.

Source: https://x.com/XFreeze/status/2066778611227709885

This data should not suggest that speech in the UK is more restricted than in China or Russia.

Keep in mind that citizens in those countries understand that speaking out or saying something offensive is guaranteed to get them arrested so they self censor to begin with.

What is ironic to me is the number of people who speak out and protest about the supposed flaws in the country that don't appreciate what they have because they live in the United States.

There is no bette example of that than New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani who took the occasion of July 4th to sit behind the former desk of George Washington and complain about how bad this country is.

Source: https://amgreatness.com/2026/07/07/mamdanis-embittered-fourth-of-july-rant-to-america/

All of this coming from a Muslim born in Uganda to parents of Indian ancestry who has only been a U.S. citizen for eight years.

Mamdani suggests that people with the color of his skin and religion are not welcome in the United States.

If that is the case how did this occur?

Credit: https://x.com/RealJamesWoods/status/2070242976668991732

Perhaps it has something to do with that United States Constitution that he and others believe is flawed.

Mamdani and others also believe we should have open borders and let everyone in that wants to come here.

However, it is difficult to understand that if the United States is as flawed as they say it is, why would anyone want to come here?

Why did Mamdani and his family come here in the first place if it was so awful?

Why did they not immigrate to their ancestral home in India?

We all know that the reality is that billions want to come to the United States. and over 1 million are given permanent residence legally each year.

The United States also naturalizes more immigrants each year to become citizens than Japan, South Korea, India and China have IN ALL OF THEIR HISTORIES AS NATIONS...COMBINED!

Source: Grok

Underlying all of this we also hear that the United States is ruled by White Supremacy.

It has increasingly been cited as the root of every problem.

However, it seems to be more a function of a media narrative than based in reality.

That term just happened to become a thing in the last ten years.

White Supremacy?

Consider this recent Census Bureau population data on Georgia.

Whites in Georgia are no longer a majority of the population in that state.

People of color are now the majority of Georgia's population.

This is Georgia that used to be considered the heart of the Confederacy.

Non-Hispanic Whites now make up only 48% of the population of the state of Georgia.

Mamdani goes even further than that and called the United States an "arena of supremacy".

The powerful have always known their answer. America, in their view, is an arena of supremacy, where only a select few are allowed freedom, where not all are created equal. America, if you ask them, becomes less the more people it welcomes. America, they will tell you, belongs only to those with the right accent or the right shade of skin. The rest of us, they insist, should be grateful for merely being allowed to visit. 

The irony is that Mamdani's life story belies everything he says to be true.

Where else but in the United States of America could an immigrant of color from another country, who just gained citizenship eight years ago, and is a member of small religious group in his new country (barely 1% of the total population), become the Mayor of the largest city in the nation?

Has the United States always been perfect?

No.

However, it has done more things right for its people and others in the world than any other country in the history of the world.

Can it be better?

Absolutely.

The Founders stated in the preamble to the Constitution that their goal was to form "a more perfect union".

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union... do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America." 

They did not declare it was perfect at the outset and undoubtedly knew it would never be perfect but that they had set a foundation for something that would evolve and continue to improve over time. 

However, Mamdani and others refuse to honor and celebrate the union that has been achieved and seek to tear it down and replace it with a collectivist society that will do nothing but increase their power and privilege at the expense of the masses they claim they want to help.

I am all for a more perfect union.

I just don't see the logic in trashing the  union we have already created.

Any objective analysis shows that it has provided the masses with more freedom and prosperity than any other nation in history.

It should be celebrated on every day and in every way even if we want a more perfect union.

Recency vs. History

When you hear many people talk about their disapproval of President Trump today they will often cite either gasoline prices or food prices.

I thought I would go back in time and look at prices for these commodities today compared to what they were four years ago.

We often hear people claim that prices have never been higher.

These people have fallen victim to recency bias.

Source: Google AI

We tend to overvalue recent events or data compared to older, more comprehensive historical data.

For example. let's look at oil prices that have gotten a lot of attention since the Iran War began.

Crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) has recently been trading at around $69/barrel after briefly breaking $100.

Four years ago crude oil was over $100/barrel for an extended period of time in 2022.

Notice that the price of oil is also lower right now that it was at almost anytime in the three years from 2022 to 2024.

It also goes without saying that we would not be in this position were it not for the shale oil revolution that President Trump and the Republicans supported but which was opposed by almost every Democrat politician over the last decade.

We would be in very bad shape if we had not followed Trump's advice to "Drill, Baby, Drill".

(You can read about what The Shale Revolution has meant to the United States in a blog post I wrote in May.)

That would be true even if there were no problems in the Strait of Hormuz today.

Do you also remember this statement by Joe Biden in 2019 when he was running for the Democrat nomination for President?

Source: https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-7837265/We-jail-Biden-wants-prosecute-fossil-fuel-executives-environment-damage.html

Of course, there is typically a lag effect between commodity prices and when they reach the consumer.

Refining, transportation and distribution costs get added to the commodity cost of oil as the product moves to the retail market.

The regular price of gasoline has come down from the highs of a couple months ago but would appear to have more room to fall based on current commodity prices that will eventually work their way into the refining system.

However, the national retail price of gasoline is still 29% below what it was at its height in 2022.

Source: https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts

Food prices are a mixed bag.

Commodity prices for dairy products are down from where they were four years ago.

Milk -19.5% compared to four years ago.

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/milk

Cheese -25.6%

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cheese

The same is even truer for poultry and eggs, especially compared to the price spike that occurred in late 2024 and early 2025 due to the bird flu panic when millions and millions of chickens were euthanized.

Commodity prices for eggs are down 90% from a year ago.

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us

However, commodity prices for beef are way up as anyone who likes ground beef and steaks can attest.

Live cattle prices are up over 80% compared to four years ago.

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/live-cattle

This has driven the national city average price for ground beef per pound from $4.89 four years ago to $6.75 in May, 2026 per BLS. data. 

Keep in mind that is a 38% increase compared to a 80% increase in the underlying commodity price.

That tells me to expect even higher beef prices in the near future.

On the other hand, the lower commodity prices we are seeing now in other food items should result in lower grocery prices in the near future than we are seeing right now.

For example, despite the huge drop in commodity egg prices the retail price of eggs in grocery stores have not fallen at the same rate.

The national city average in May was $2.19 per dozen.

That is 25% lower than July, 2022 and 39% cheaper than a year ago.

Nevertheless, eggs at the grocery are not down 80-90% over these periods as are the underlying commodity prices.

Part of the reason is that labor and other overhead costs in the grocery system have risen substantially as a result of the high inflation during the 2022-2023 period.

Labor costs, in particular, are not going to reverse. Those additional costs are now baked into the system. Pay and benefits increases that were given the last few years are not going to be taken away.

You can also bet that grocers are not as willing to lower prices as quickly as they were to raise them as their costs first went up.

As shoppers got more accustomed to paying $3.00-$4.00/ dozen for eggs it is easier to price those eggs in the $2.00-$2.50 range rather than return to the $1.50 range they were before the spike in prices.

It is also important to remember in all of this that the cost of food as a percent of personal disposable income is about as low as it has ever been.

Food (both at home and away from home) takes a smaller percent of disposable income than it did in 2022-2024.

The only time it was lower in history was in the period right before and during Covid.

Source: https://www-tx.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/76967

The share of disposable personal income spent for gasoline is also near historic lows.

Source: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/consumer-gas-affordability.pdf

I understand that people remember when gas was $2.00 gallon, you could buy a dozen eggs for $1.50 and might find a clearance price on bread at Kroger for 99 cents.

However, the reality is that all of those prices were during Trump's first term.

We are not likely returning to those prices unless we find ourselves in a worldwide recession and no one should be rooting for that.

Covid, the money printing that ensued and the inflation that inevitably followed brought us to where we are today.

However, the fact is that most everyone in history, and anyone living anywhere else in the world today, would gladly take the food and gas prices (and incomes) that many Americans are complaining about.

It is easy (especially for those who dislike him to begin with) to disapprove of President Trump for current gas and food prices.

It is much more difficult to put all of this in historical perspective and context.

However, if you allow recency bias to control you, it is distorting your decision making ability and views about the reality around you..

It is just one more example of why I often say "context is everything when assessing anything".

American Pride In Decline

Tomorrow we celebrate 250 years of American Independence.

However, each year there seems to be fewer and fewer people who want to celebrate the United States of America.

There have never been fewer people who say they are "proud to be an American."

Gallup just released its annual survey on American Pride.

Only 33% of adults state that they are "extremely proud" to be an American.

In 2003, that number was 70%.

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/711938/american-pride-falls-year-record-low.aspx

Among self-identified Democrats, only 14% state they are extremely proud to be an American.

That has declined from 62% in 2003.

The comparable number for Republicans is 70% today.

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/711938/american-pride-falls-year-record-low.aspx

There is clearly some element of partisan bias in the numbers.

There was a dip in American pride among Republicans when Biden was President before it rebounded in 2025 with Trump in office.

American pride with Democrats came up a bit with Obama and Biden in office but the downward slide in their patriotism over the last 25 years is difficult to ignore.

Why do we see the scorn we do about the United States of America from Democrats specifically?

A big reason for this seems to be that younger people in particular have negative views about America due to our liberal education system that spends more time maligning the United States and its Founders than extolling its virtues.

An astounding 45% of those between the ages of 18-34 state they have only a little pride in being an American (24%) or none at all (21%).

For those ages 55 and older the comparable percent is just 13%.

48% of those age 55 and over are extremely proud to be an American.

Only 14% of those 18-34 feel the same.

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/711938/american-pride-falls-year-record-low.aspx

The education establishment loves to push the narrative to their students that everything about the United States is illegitimate in that it was founded by a bunch of rich, white men who created a system based on slavery and were primarily concerned with protecting their own self interests.

All of American history is portrayed as a system of oppression of minorities-native Americans, Blacks etc.

Of course, this narrative fails to mention that our Founders were generally the elite class in the American colonies. The British system had worked out well for their self interests. They were "the 1%" in that day and age. They had it "made in the shade" as the younger generation might say.

They had little to gain personally from rebelling against the British.

By declaring independence from the British, they put all that they had at risk--their lives, their livelihoods, and their riches---for independence and freedom FOR ALL.

Why did they do it?

They valued freedom and independence for themselves and their fellow Americans more than their own self-interests.

How many Americans would do anything like that today?

However, many of these men of influence and privilege in the British system, who had little to gain personally in seeking independence, paid a heavy price for what the masses gained.

What happened to the 56 Founders who signed the Declaration of Independence?

About half of them died from wartime hardships, were financially ruined or were captured and brutally tortured

Source: Google AI

You can read the details of what happened to the 56 signers here.

I can assure you that this history is not being taught in our education system today.

No one should also forget that the signing of that Declaration of Independence and the ensuing Revolutionary War also set in motion a global movement that led to the rise of democracies and individual rights being recognized around the world.

Monarchies, empires and autocracies fell and were replaced by governments that gave people more political and economic autonomy and freedom.

All of this is also playing out in vastly different ways in which America's 250th birthday will be celebrated tomorrow.

In San Diego County, California this is the schedule of events for the official July 4th celebration.

This seems to have more similarity to a DEI event or the convention of the Democrat Socialists of America rather than a July 4th celebration.

The days of the 4th of July parade, all members of the community gathering to celebrate and a concluding fireworks display are disappearing at the same rate that those with American Pride are.

How long will it be before July 4th is not even recognized in blue states?

It might be sooner than you think.

The Compounding Effects of Life

The passage of Spring into Summer is a big point of transition for many young people.

Moving up a grade level at school.

Perhaps moving from elementary school to middle school or junior high to high school.

Others will make a big move and leave their parental home and strike out on their own for the first time.

Graduates heading into the real world where they will (hopefully) be responsible for making a living to support themselves. 

All of these transitions involve meeting new people, seeing new things and being confronted with decisions about how your conduct life.

I thought it was a good time to share a blog post I wrote ten years ago on the compounding effects of life.

There are important lessons in here for anyone.

However, they are especially important for any young people within your sphere of influence.

Make sure they understand the power of compound interest.

Just as important, make sure that they also understand the way life compounds.

Doing the right thing leads to other good things.

Doing the wrong things often compounds into other problems.

It is the reason the rich get richer and poor get poorer.

Everyone needs to understand the compounding effects of life.

In addition to the examples I cited in that blog post there is no better current example of that than Vice President J.D.Vance. 

His life could have easily compounded out of control in that his father was absent, his mother was drug addicted and he did not go to college right out of high school.

Instead, he joined the Marine Corps and learned a lot about life and how to conduct himself.

He went to college. Got into Yale Law School. He met his future wife who was also a student at Yale.

His time at Yale led to meeting Peter Thiel who was one the most influential people in Silicon Valley who ended up working for.

Vance wrote a book. Was elected as a U.S. Senator and later Vice President of the United States.

He may end up as President some day.

Life compounds.

If you are interested in learning more about the J.D. Vance story I suggest you read this blog post I also wrote in 2016 about his book Hillbilly Elegy. 

Life Compounds

(originally published May 1, 2016)

I have explained before that one of the principal reasons that I am a fiscal conservative is that I understand the power of compound interest. If it is working for you, it makes your life easy.  If it is working against you, it will ultimately bury you.

A wise friend of mine believes the power of compounding also applies to relationships. Developing friends, friendships and a network of relationships has tremendous compounding power. One friend leads to two. Two to four. Four to eight. Those relationships can add a lot to your life and your career. They can nourish and nurture you. They can inform, inspire and increase your sphere of influence. They can be a real force multiplier in your life.

As I have thought about it some more, the reality is that the power of compounding in life is even much bigger than that. Compounding effects actually explains a lot about success (or the lack of it) in life.

All things in our lives are subject to the effects of compounding. One thing most often leads to another---good or bad. And those compound effects add up as tremendous force multipliers over time in our lives.

I have written before of the Brookings Institution study that found if you simply finish high school, marry before having children and have a full time job, you only have a 2% chance of ending up in poverty in the United States. At the same time, your chances of living in the middle class are 74% if you do these three things. That is pretty compelling evidence of compounding effects.

If you drop out of high school you greatly limit your choice of jobs. You also are competing for those jobs with others who did graduate. Compounding effects. 

If you have a child out of wedlock your choices get even more limited. You may have to limit your job choices due to child care concerns. You may not be able to work full time or take a job that requires any overtime or travel. Compounding effects.

If you drop out of high school it also affects your friendships. Who are you most likely to hang with when most of your contemporaries are in school? It most likely will be with other drop-outs going nowhere. You end up at the same destination that they are heading to. Compounding effects.

And these effects compound over a lifetime. One bad thing leads to another and another and another. It is not easy to get out from under a series of poor decisions that compound. It is much like a debt load that gets too large. The interest on that debt will eventually bury you.

2026 Update--In June the Ohio General Assembly passed legislation mandating that schools in the state teach the principles of this "success sequence".  It became law effective June 24, 2026 when Governor Mike DeWine chose not to veto the legislation.

Source: Google AI

On the other hand, doing the right thing at the right time with the right people leads to success in life. Studying hard, working hard, hanging with friends who have purpose, values and goals will compound to great things. Compounding effects. 

Selecting the right spouse. Spending less than you earn. Saving for a rainy day and retirement. Staying away from drugs and the use of alcohol to excess. Compounding effects.

Several years ago I cited an American Enterprise Institute analysis that looked at the income characteristics of U.S. households based on various demographic factors such as education, married status, work status and age.

Looking at this data you can see the tremendous impact that demographic factors have on income.  I might add that most demographic factors are choices. You have no control over when or where you were born (or your parents) but choices are made about graduating from high school, going to college, marriage, children born out of wedlock and the like.  These choices are also not fixed over a lifetime and certainly are not fixed from generation to generation.  People have the opportunity in this country to change their situation.

The first thing you notice in looking at the chart is those that are in the highest fifth of U.S households have earned that status by working.  In fact, 2.03 is the mean numbers of earners per household in the top quintile. There are a lot of two earner households in that top quintile. The lowest quintile only has .44 earners per household. Compounding effects.

Only 2.9% of these well-off households have no earners. The rich are not people clipping coupons, they are working and earning a living.  On the other hand, 61.7% of those in the lowest quintile had no one in the household with earnings.  No one is going to get rich on government programs. Compounding effects.

78.2% of the high income households are married compared to only 16.7% of the poor. Compounding effects.

It is no surprise that education stands out as a key demographic factor.  Only 1.8% of the highest earners failed to graduate from high school but 26.9% of the poor failed to get that basic educational attainment despite the fact that a free high school education is available to everyone in the country. On the other hand, 62.3% of the richest Americans have graduated from college. Compounding effects.

As you can see, in most of the selected characteristics there is a direct correlation that corresponds with moving up the income scale whether it is number of earners per household, marital status, work status or education. Compounding effects.

There is an old saying, "The rich get richer and the poor get poorer." I think this really describes the compounding effects of life.

However, it is too often the case that people are led to believe that they are victims of their circumstances rather than masters of their fate.

A good example is Donald Trump and his brother Fred, eight years his senior. Fred also carried his father's name into life. Fred, Jr. should have been the heir apparent to their father's real estate business but a series of poor life decisions destroyed any advantages he had by birth. Fred smoke, partied and eventually drank himself to death at the relatively young age of 42.

Donald Trump learned by watching his brother and saw how the compounding effects of bad life decisions could bring even those with talent and advantage down. Seeing his brother's downward spiral was the main reason that Trump has never smoked or drank in his life.

On the other hand, Dr. Ben Carson overcame an impoverished childhood while being raised by a single mother who could not even read. He was heading in the wrong direction but his mother pulled him back on track. She turned off the television and told him to read. The young Ben Carson studied. He worked hard. He got into Yale and that led to medical school and a residency in neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins where he eventually ended up as Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery with a worldwide reputation.

Compound effects.

They explain a lot about life.

Make sure they are compounding the right way in your life,

A Time For Choosing

It used to be that so-called Democrat Socialists were considered on the fringe of American politics.

That is because their policies are almost indistinguishable from Communists.

They are savvy enough to avoid that name.

The Democrat Socialists are also generally smart enough to not run for political office with that label on the ballot. 

The Democrat Socialists of America are not an official political party.

However, they have an agenda and a platform.

It is contained in this document.

They are currently working to gradually takeover the Democrat party.

Source: https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/dsa-democrats-us-politics-k8z2tdz78

Why go to the time and expense to grow your own political party when you can do a takeover?

Although Bernie Sanders is not officially a member of the Democrat Socialist party he has consistently referred to himself as a Democrat Socialist.

Sanders has always run for his Senate seat in Vermont as an Independent although he caucuses with Democrats in Washington.

However, more and more members of the Democrat Socialists of America are running for political office as Democrats and winning.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D--NY) is a DSA member.

Rashida Tlaid (D-MI), the U.S Representative from Michigan is also a DSA member.

The Mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, is also a Democrat Socialist as is the Mayor of Seattle, Katie Wilson, and in Washington, D.C., Democrat Socialist Janeese Lewis George just won the Democrat nomination to be the next mayor of that city.

The big news last week was that three Mamdani endorsed candidates who espouse DSA views won the Democrat nominations for Congressional seats in New York City. Two of those who were defeated were Democrat incumbents.

The Democrat Socialists are clearly working to takeover the Democrat party and remake it in their image.

What are some of the major platform items in the Democrat Socialist of America 2025-2026 program?

It starts with promises of lots of FREE stuff.

FREE Medicare for All with no premiums, deductibles or co-pays.

FREE college tuition and room and board at all public schools.

CANCEL all student loan debt.

FREE public universal child care and pre-K.

FREE expensive paid family leave.

UNIVERSAL rent control housing.

ZERO cash bail.

For an added bonus, demilitarize ( I guess defund did not poll well)  the police and decriminalize all drug offenses.

How is all of this going to be paid for?

All you have to do is tax the rich according to the Democrat Socialists.

In the meantime, everyone also gets to work a 32-hour work week with no reduction in pay or benefits.

Make unions stronger and also spend trillions on a Green New Deal while having the government take over major transportation, energy infrastructure and natural resources companies.

I am sure it will all work out great.

The most important foreign policy issue for the Democrat Socialists is freeing Palestine and reducing the United States military budget.

A core belief for the DSA is very much an anti-Israel and anti-Zionist agenda.

The DSA also wants a free and open border and to provide amnesty to all illegal immigrants.

Of course, we also have to provide everything FREE to all immigrants who end up here as well in addition to providing them access to jobs and labor rights.

 

Finally, they want to rework the political and governmental framework in the United States.

Abolish the electoral college.

Extend full voting rights to non-citizens and convicted felons.

Replace the two-party system and expand the seats in the House of Representatives and have proportional representation elections.

Reform the Supreme Court.

Put everything together and it is a very long list.

In summary, the Democrat Socialists want to fundamentally alter and change almost everything about the United States of America.

In so doing, it would almost certainly destroy what has been the most prosperous and successful nation in  the history of the world.

The problem is that when a politician comes along and says that they are going to make everything FREE it is not easy for everyone to see that the math does not work and where it all leads.

You simply cannot provide a bunch of free stuff, cut everyone's work hours, provide jobs and free stuff to millions and millions of immigrants and expect it is all going to be paid by a few rich people.

People in many countries have fallen for that "FREE" line and not one has ended up better off.

And they were not promising to let everyone else in the world into their country to also get free stuff.

In the aftermath of the elections in New York, President Trump warned the Democrat party that they had better be prepared to fight off the takeover or they would be doomed and the country would be facing one of its greatest risks in its 250 year history.

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5943014-trump-democratic-socialist-candidates-primaries-nyc/

President Trump warned that the democratic socialist candidate victories in Tuesday’s New York primaries go beyond the left-leaning state. 

“The Democrat Party is in big trouble because this isn’t stopping with New York,” Trump said Friday, speaking at the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s annual policy conference in Washington.

It’s too easy to get elected, giving everything away,” he continued. “It’s easy for them to get followers because they make promises they know they can’t keep.”  

Trump went on to say the Democratic Party’s establishment is not fighting back because “they’re afraid to fight.” 

The Democrat establishment is afraid to speak out against the insurgents because they fear they will be the next target for the Democrat Socialists.

The Democrat Socialists left no doubt about that after the election in New York City by booing House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and changing "You're Next".

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KVJMJp9b5c

However, history has shown that appeasement does not work when core values and principles are so misaligned.

Ronald Reagan said it well.

Source: https://www.reaganfoundation.org/ronald-reagan/quotes/freedom-is-never-more-than-one-generation-away-from

Are the Democrats prepared to fight the takeover of their party?

Are the rest of us prepared to fight for the soul and sanctity of the United States of America?

The choices could not be more profound and consequential.

As Ronald Reagan also said in his famous "A Time For Choosing" speech in 1964.

It was true in 1964.

It is even truer today.