Beware The Preference Cascade, Dr. Fauci

Do you know what a preference cascade is?

One person who should beware of it is Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Source: Google AI

I recently wrote about Fauci and what we are finding he was saying and doing in private compared to what he was saying in public during Covid.

All through the Covid pandemic Fauci was lionized by the media and the establishment.

He was considered all knowing and told us that he was always guided by "the science".

The contents of his diary and his unwillingness to testify under oath to a Senate committee by invoking the Fifth Amendment, despite having a preemptive Presidential pardon in hand, has shown a different side of Fauci to the public.

In my recent blog post, I suggested that it was not far fetched to believe that we would soon see some (if not most) Democrats and media types throw Fauci under the bus to protect their own reputations in light of the contents of his diary and the documents released by Tulsi Gabbard last month.

The X account below references a number of examples where the preference cascade is already beginning to sweep Fauci under the rug.

This post summarizes a longer article that you can read here.

The important point here is that there has been no real change in the underlying facts.

The only thing that has changed is the social cost calculation in believing Fauci's argument that Covid was of natural origin from bats rather than a lab leak in Wuhan and other narratives that Fauci pushed during the pandemic (the utility of face masks, arguing against the value of natural immunity, the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines, etc).

Those that countered Fauci on these points were branded as dangerous purveyors of misinformation and conspiracy theorists.

Once it is seen that high status voices are stepping away from the former narrative more people feel comfortable in speaking up and stating what has been obvious to a minority for a long time.

However, many did not speak up before simply because the social costs of doing so are so severe.

Think about the fairy tale "The Emperor Has No Clothes".

The only one willing to speak the truth that the Emperor had no clothes on was a young boy who had no social connections and did not know any better.

The change in attitudes might start with a trickle of those willing to speak the truth but it very quickly becomes a torrential cascade.

We may already be seeing the beginnings of a preference cascade with Dr. Fauci.

The most significant development I have seen in all of this so far has been the admission from Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House Covid-19 Response Coordinator during the pandemic, that he now believes it most likely came about from a lab leak.

CNN's Dana Bash appears crestfallen hearing that news.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/02/politics/video/former-white-house-covid-19-response-coordinator-dr-ashish-jha-dana-bash-it-was-probably-a-lab-leak

Keep all of this in mind as you see what develops with Fauci in the next few months when he does not have the total protection of his media sycophants.

Fauci was "The Good Doctor" when he was at the height of his media adulation in July, 2020.

We will have to see where he lands if the Preference Cascade takes control.

It can sometimes be a short trip from famous to infamous.

If you would like to learn more about Preference Cascades and the related Preference Falsification you might be interested in reading the blog post below that I wrote on the subject in late 2024.

Our experiences with the Covid pandemic and the election of Donald Trump are great examples of both of these concepts.

The Power of a Preference Cascade

(originally published December 18, 2024)

Human beings are social animals.

Societies from the beginning of time have been built upon families, tribes, groups and human relationships.

For most of history these relationships were a critical element in survival. Those that did not congregate and collaborate were at much greater personal risk.

Those who were outliers and did not conform to the customs, conventions and mores of the group were at risk of being shunned and banned.

There remains a strong desire to conform today even if if it is not as crucial to survival as it once was.

For example, take a look at this image of students being led from their school in Madison, Wisconsin after the horrific shooting in that city on Monday that I noticed in coverage of the killings.

I guess you are only cool if you wear pajama bottoms to school.

Source: https://beelineblogger.blogspot.com/2024/12/where-does-trump-stand-on-time.html

The desire to conform is strong in all of us.

This is true even if you privately believe the group is off base or wrong in what they are saying or doing.

It is far easier to conform and not stick your head out from the crowd. Being part of the crowd carries less risk. It is safer to be a part of the crowd so you can avoid being called out or noticed.

You may even "go along to get along" to keep the peace and not make waves.

That describes me during Covid.

I had done all the research and wrote extensively in these pages about the total lack of any evidence that wearing a surgical or cloth mask provided any protective benefits against the Covid virus.

However, despite that knowledge and belief, I dutifully put on a skimpy mask when I went into a grocery or other store during Covid. It just was not worth the dirty looks and scorn I would get if I did not conform to the narrative.

That is an example of what is called Preference Falsification.

My public action was contrary to what my private beliefs were on the benefit of wearing a mask.

Here is an article on Preference Falsification in Psychology Today.

In its worst manifestation, people will even take actions against their own self interest in a false belief in order to gain favor with what they believe to be the majority view.

For example, consider the woke turn that Disney took despite the fact that its core business market was family entertainment.

Source: https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/02/19/disney-a-billion-dollar-casualty-of-woke/

The woes facing Disney illustrate the powerful hold wokeness now has on big corporations. It’s as if Disney’s leaders felt compelled to toe the line on the identitarian agenda. They were prepared to trash the company’s reputation and alienate its fans, seemingly just to signal their allegiance to this new elite ideology.

Or Bud Light deciding it would help their brand identity and sell more beer by featuring a transgender personality in their advertising.

How do we get to a place that big brands like Disney and Bud Light would blow up billions of dollars of company value on actions that were in direct contradiction to the traditional views of its consumer base?

It was preference falsification. Disney and Bud Light were more concerned with attempting to curry favor by aligning with the woke narrative and the elites who promoted it.

The Leftists in America have spent decades bullying people into believing "woke" ideas on race, gender and politics. Constant media repetition amplified those ideas until anyone who might question the narrative thought they were the outlier.  If anyone did voice objection, they were mobbed or canceled which meant that over time fewer and fewer were willing to speak up. 

After awhile most everyone believes the narrative is the majority view, even if it is false.

This is why totalitarian governments spend so much time and effort on propaganda and using the police to crush even minor dissent. They want to create the illusion that all is well and make sure that anyone who might dissent does not understand the full extent that fellow citizens similarly dislike the regime. This is why preference falsification is such a powerful force.

However, even more powerful is a preference cascade.

A preference cascade occurs when the false spell is broken and masses of the discontented who believed they were alone come to realize that their beliefs are widely shared.

This is when revolutions occur or when a massive change in public attitudes becomes apparent.

Preference falsification may build slowly and stealthily.

However, a preference cascade occurs quickly when the falsification unwinds suddenly and causes a rapid transformation of society around the new found shared majority beliefs surprising outside observers and citizens alike.

The seminal academic work on preference falsifications and preference cascades is contained in a book written by economist Timur Kuran that was originally published in 1995.

Source: https://www.amazon.com/Private-Truths-Public-Lies-Falsification/dp/0674707583

I have come across a large number of people since the election remark how they feel as if something fundamental has changed in the last month.

The best explanation for that is the power of a preference cascade.

Donald Trump winning the recent election with a popular majority was an important turning point.

It showed to a number of people that they were not crazy. They were not alone. They were not misinformed. They do not have to remain silent for fear of being marginalized or maligned.

By the same token, it has caused those who relentlessly pushed the woke agenda, DEI, open borders, antisemitism and the like that they hold minority views. It has been a humbling experience and to this point it appears that they do not quite know how to react.

The realization that the Trump voters are in the majority and the Democrats on their heels is a powerful combination and we seem to be in the midst of preference cascade that may lead us into further transformation in society.

Of course, there is little doubt that Donald Trump is most responsible for this massive change in psychology.

He was the one man who was not afraid to stand up and speak his mind going all the way back to 2015.

Make no mistake that a big reason that the Democrats, Big Government and Big Media attacked Trump so viciously over the last decade is that he was such a threat to the preference falsification narrative they were using to maintain power.

The same is true for Elon Musk after he bought Twitter. When Musk committed Twitter (now X) to being the free speech outlet when every other major social media and Big Media platform was promoting the preference falsification narrative, it opened up more eyes and became harder to keep the false illusion alive.

We are in a different place today primarily due to Trump and Musk.

We don't yet know where all of this will lead.

However, do not underestimate the power of a preference cascade.

A Clash of Religions and Civilizations

A key tenet of most every religion in the world is to tame and control the worst instincts in all of us.

This is clearly at the heart of the Christian and Jewish faiths that formed the foundations of Western Civilization.

For example, the Bible says human hearts are naturally flawed and easily tempted to do wrong.

Christianity contrasts selfish human desires with the positive traits that God's spirit produces.

Jesus showed us that evil thoughts, anger, and greed start inside a person before turning into actions.

Christians are taught to focus on good, true, and pure thoughts to change their inner desires.

Believers are told to love their neighbors and to actively stop and turn away from anger, greed and lust. 

Christians are told to ask the Holy Spirit for daily strength through prayer to resist the temptation of the flesh.

The same is not true with Islam.

Dan Burmawi is the Executive Director of the Ideological Defense Institute and is a theological scholar.

Burmawi was born and raised as a Muslim in Jordan but converted to Christianity and was forced to move to Lebanon.

He has written several books including Islam, Israel and the West, which examines the "theological and ideological foundations of the Arab–Israeli conflict and Western engagement with political Islam. "

I recently came across some comments that Burmawi made about the contrast of the Judeo-Christian foundational principles of Western Civilization compared to Islam.

It was something that I had not considered before but it goes a long way in explaining the clash of cultures that we see playing out every day around the world.

Burmawi warns that what we are dealing with regarding Islam is not about religious or geopolitical differences, the clash is civilizational at the deepest level.

Burmawi's thoughts on the subject.

Islam is the sanctification of man’s most corrupted instincts. 

It takes what is base in human nature and give it a divine sanction.

Man’s desire to dominate women? Islam codifies it. Veiling, polygamy, child marriage, testimony worth half a man’s, all justified as God’s will.

The tribal impulse of “my group over yours”? Islam raises it to the level of theology: believers vs. infidels, the ummah against the world.

The lust for supremacy and conquest? Islam calls it jihad and makes it a religious demand.

The primal rage at dissent? Islam turns it into law: apostasy punishable by death.

Man’s lust for unlimited sex? Islam provides it: four wives, temporary marriages, concubines, sex slaves, and the promise of virgins in paradise. 

This is why Islam went global. It spread because it indulged what was already animal in humans. 

It is like pornography, irresistible to the flesh, destructive to the soul.

It thrives because it removes all discipline from sexuality, power and ego. 

It appeals to the raw, the unrefined, the barbaric impulse in man, and calls it holy.

The West, by contrast, was built on the exact opposite impulse. The Judeo-Christian tradition does not legitimize man’s depravity, it restrains it.

Western civilization is not the freedom of instincts but the discipline of them. 

It is the recognition that man’s raw impulses lead to tyranny, slavery, and barbarism unless they are checked by higher law.

The clash between Islam and the West is not merely geopolitical. It is civilizational at the deepest level: 

Whether human nature should be indulged or disciplined, whether man’s lowest instincts are to be worshipped or restrained.

Seeing Burmawi's thoughts on Islam I could not help but also remember what Winston Churchill wrote in 1899 in his book the River War that he published after serving with the British Army in the Sudan War.

Churchill stated that "no stronger retrograde force exists in the world" than Islam.

How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this fearful fatalistic apathy. The effects are apparent in many countries. Improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live. A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement; the next of its dignity and sanctity. The fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some man as his absolute property – either as a child, a wife, or a concubine – must delay the final extinction of slavery until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among men. Individual Moslems may show splendid qualities. Thousands become the brave and loyal soldiers of the Queen: all know how to die: but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science, the science against which it had vainly struggled, the civilisation of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilisation of ancient Rome.

Yes, this was written over 100 years ago by a young Churchill who clearly moderated his views later in life.

However, if you take Burmawi's views today along with Churchill's from a century ago, it does reinforce the view that we have two very different and competing philosophies on how civilization is supposed to operate.

Can we just ignore it?

Europe seems to think so.

We are seeing how that works out every day and in every way.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/europe/least-18-die-49000-breach-border-morocco-spanish-territory-rcna590183

Caitlin Clark, the WNBA and the Golden Egg

There are many things in this world that defy logic and rational thinking.

One is the WNBA (Women's National Basketball Association).

The women's league was formed 20 years ago by the NBA to further the game of basketball.

Despite the women's game becoming more popular in the last several years primarily due to new players such as Caitlin Clark. Angel Reese and Paige Bueckers, the WNBA continue to lose money.

The WNBA lost a reported collective amount of $50 million in 2025 after losing $40 million in 2024.

The arrival of Caitlin Clark in 2024 brought increased attendance and tv viewership but it has not helped the bottom line as players demanded more money under a new collective bargaining agreement.

For example, compare the attendance at Atlanta Dream games when playing the Indiana Fever and Caitlin Clark compared to other opponents.

Atlanta averages over 17,000 per game when Caitlin Clark is in town compared to a normal average of just over 4,000 since she joined the league.

Source: Google AI

You can also see the effect that Clark has had in looking at tv viewership.

Caitlin Clark has played in every game on this list of the top WNBA audiences in the last 25 years.

She was also the centerpiece of the NBA draft show in 2024 when she was the first overall selection.

Remove Caitlin Clark from the equation and the WNBA loses fans in the seats and viewers on the screen.

Of course, that equates to less revenues to the NBA and the WNBA owners.

Source: https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2026/07/wnba-viewership-fever-liberty-among-most-watched-since-2000/

You also have this.

Every measurable that is important to revenue generation in the WNBA leads back to Caitlin Clark.

Clark's team, the Indiana Fever, generates more social media impressions than every other WNBA team COMBINED.

For years the WNBA asked basketball fans to give the league a chance. Not many paid attention despite many talented players who were on the court.

Caitlin Clark showed up and suddenly a lot of people started paying attention. That is not an opinion. It is in the facts above.

The WNBA ought to be celebrating and sanctifying her presence.

Caitlin Clark is what Tiger Woods did for the PGA Tour and Michael Jordan did for the NBA.

She is the Aesop's goose that lays golden eggs.

In a logical world the WNBA would do everything in their power to promote and protect her.

That is not the world we live in.

Clark seems to be a target in every game she plays.

She is the victim of more flagrant fouls than anyone else in the league.

She is routinely bodied and beaten up and the referees sit on their whistles.

The WNBA seems to go out of its way to argue Clark is not really that good and is not the reason that the popularity of the of their league has grown in the last three years.

Last week Clark had the fourth triple double of her career.

That is the third most in WNBA history and the most by a guard.

Clark is only in her third year in the league.

However, WNBA players recently voted Caitlin Clark as only the 11th best guard in the league.

These are considered the current leaders in the WNBA for the MVP this year.

Caitlin Clark is not mentioned.

None of these women has ever had a triple double.

Clark's 2026 statistics by comparison.

She is averaging more points and more assists per game than Bueckers and Miles who the WNBA players rank higher than Clark.

Source: https://www.statmuse.com/wnba/ask/caitlin-clark-2026-stats

More relevant, Caitlin Clark leads the WNBA in offensive production despite being hurt and missing 3 games compared to most other players.

She's accounted for 40% of her team's scoring this year between her points and assists.

But she is not considered a leading contender for MVP?

Isn't that the definition of the most valuable player?

One of the more impressive stats I have seen regarding Clark is this one.

Average distance on 3 point FG's.

Better than every NBA player's career stat and not another WNBA player on the list.

Yes, the women play with a smaller ball and the same rim size which makes it easier for the ball to go through the hoop.

However, this is still an astounding stat.

Considering all of the above and what she means to the WNBA, how is it that the league and its players seem to be determined to diminish and destroy her?

It makes no sense in a sane world.

Why does the WNBA want to destroy itself by diminishing their biggest star and fan draw?

The only answer I can come up with is jealousy, racism and resentment.

Two-thirds of WNBA players are Black.

25% of WNBA player are openly gay and estimates are that the actual number of LBGTQ+ representation in the league is closer to 40%.

Clark is white and straight.

Is there another way to explain it?

I wish I could see it.

Image created by Grok Imagine

 

Fauci, the Fifth and His Future

Dr. Anthony Fauci appeared before the U.S. Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee this week to answer questions about his conduct during the Covid pandemic and his role in funding gain of function research that appears to have played a role in what followed.

Fauci had received a last minute preemptive pardon from the Biden administration for any actions he took in his official government conduct from 2014 until January 19, 2025.

Despite this, Fauci still pled the Fifth Amendment against self incrimination over 100 times during the hearing.

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/dr-fauci-invokes-fifth-amendment-over-100-times-during-senate-hearing-267466821581

Link: https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/fauci-diary-covid-19-rand-paul/

At one point his invocation of the Fifth got so ridiculous that Fauci refused to answer a question about the color of his tie.

You are generally not permitted to invoke the Fifth Amendment in a legal proceeding after receiving a pardon as you are shielded from being prosecuted for any crimes committed during the period the pardon relates.

However, you can be subject to perjury charges for not being truthful and the Presidential pardon does not necessarily apply to state prosecutions.

Fauci was clearly not taking any chances even though he might be charged with Contempt of Congress for his refusal to testify and subject to up to a year in prison if convicted.

His actions were also counter to his earlier statements that he was always willing to testify about everything he did because he had nothing to hide.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/media/fauci-haunted-2022-nothing-hide-vow-invoking-fifth-amendment-111-times

Based on the revelations contained in a daily diary where Fauci had chronicled his activities during the Covid year ( he apparently planned to profit from a book he was going to write) he has good reasons to be concerned.

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5993885-rand-paul-accuses-fauci-dishonesty-diary/

The diary was published prior to the hearing by Chairman Rand Paul who apparently received it from sources at the Department of Health and Human Services in that the contents of Fauci's diary were found on government servers.

At a minimum. the diary is unbelievably damaging to Fauci's reputation.

He spends a lot of time writing about how famous he has become due to Covid.

It is hard to read the diary entries without concluding Fauci is a narcissistic egomaniac.

A sampling compiled by Tom Elliott.

Source: https://x.com/tomselliott/status/2082102330753999242

At worse, it shows he was saying one thing in private and another in public.

For example, he has always stated that "the science" is strong that Covid came about naturally from bats and dismissed that it resulted from a leak at the Wuhan lab which he was involved with in funding experiments.

However, his diary admits that 10 fo 12 experts he consulted early on believed that it was possible the virus had come from Wuhan. 

In public and in any Congressional testimony Fauci  always branded anyone who suggested that Covid came from a lab leak to be a conspiracy theorist.

Fauci also testified under oath and told the public that Covid had a mortality rate of 10x the flu.

However, privately he assessed the rate at .2-.3% which is in the range of a severe annual flu virus.

I was on to Fauci early as I wrote about Covid in these pages.

I could not have known how right I was when I wrote a blog post titled "Two-Faced Fauci?" on April 13, 2020 about one month into the pandemic.

He comes across as someone who doesn't mince words and is a pretty straight shooter.

However, I must also admit that I have seen some things that have troubled me when it comes to Dr. Fauci during the Covid-19 crisis.

First, Fauci has had the top job regarding infectious diseases at the National Institute of Health since 1984---36 years.

As people begin to ask whether we should have been better prepared wouldn't the first person that should be questioned regarding that lack of preparation be Dr. Fauci?

Yes, I know he is only a bureaucrat and he doesn't control funding and the like. However, politicians have one million issues (and especially Presidents) on their plates. Fauci had responsibility that included one very big issue---our response to a pandemic. Did he use his platform and his influence effectively to insure we were prepared?

I also have a hard time in understanding how Dr. Fauci can stand up at those press conferences and say that his sole focus is on health recommendations to the President.

He is being charged with overseeing the public health of the United States. Yes, that includes the nation's short term response to the virus. However, how do public health concerns also not extend to the longer term implications of the economic shutdown.

He says he is not an economist. In my view, it is not enough for him to say that it is not his concern. There is a public health component in that as well that he should be considering and weighing in his recommendations.

On July 19, 2020 I asked "Does The Substance Match The Style" after Fauci was featured on the cover of InStyle magazine along with a glowing interview by Norah O'Donnell of NBC News.

In that blog post I also pointed out the dangerous insider relationships between people like Fauci and the D.C. media establishment. That link is shown time and again in the Fauci diary.

What is especially telling in all of this is that Dr. Fauci, a man with a lot of style but little substance to point to on Covid-19, is treated as if he was a deity by the media and D.C. establishment.

Donald Trump, a man with little style but who has proven to have a lot of substance and results to show in 3+ years in office, is treated as if he is the devil.

It says a lot about what is important in Washington.

The problem is that we are living in very dangerous and consequential times today.

Style doesn't cut it any more.

It is long past the time that the media masters and D.C. insiders should be the ones deciding what is good and bad for the country. 

On June 3, 2021 I wrote about Fauci in a blog post titled  "Fauci: Good Doctor of Fraud?". 

I had a very wise boss and mentor who advised me early in my career to always be on the look out for what he referred to as "the articulate incompetent".

These are the people who look good and sound great. They usually attended the best schools and know how to ingratiate themselves to the people who count. However, when you really considered what they said or did, there was nothing there. 

In the corporate world these people could quickly impress others and be persuasive in their presentations. However, there was no substance to back up the style. This fact eluded most people and articulate incompetents could inflict major damage on an organization because they had people doing the wrong things for the wrong reasons.

Anthony Fauci seems to me to be an articulate incompetent.

 Of course, it you are current in your BeeLine reading you should have seen my blog post of a month ago about Fauci and others asking the question "Will Anyone Ever Be Held Accountable" that also republished my blog post  titled "Truth and Lies" from January 26, 2024.

That blog post documents Fauci's frantic efforts early in 2020 in covering up NIH funding of the Wuhan lab's work on coronaviruses.

Fauci and the NIH were living in fear of it being found out they were funding the work on the coronaviruses at Wuhan.

They also knew that the purpose of the work was to create a virus that was more contagious and deadly than was currently in place in nature.

Knowing all of this, it undoubtedly caused Fauci and the NIH to overreact and recommend the draconian response to the virus they did knowing that it was totally at odds with established protocols in dealing with a pandemic.

Fear and guilt had to be enormous motivating factors in what Fauci and his brethren did next.

They could not leave any stone unturned in the Covid response knowing what they appeared to have unleashed.

What would the reaction be if the truth came out and Fauci had not gone all out in the response in order to stop the virus?

After reading those diary excerpts from Fauci where he seems so enamored with his celebrity, I also wonder whether he might have subconsciously wanted the pandemic to linger in order to remain the center of attention.  It is a horrible thought but we know human nature for what it is.

It will be interesting to see what the future holds for Dr. Fauci.

Will the Senate ask the DOJ to prosecute Fauci for contempt of Congress?

Could the DOJ attempt to challenge the autopen Presidential pardon given to Fauci by the Biden administration?

Will a state such as Florida or Alabama seek to bring some sort of state criminal action against Fauci?

Will the Democrats and media establishment continue to defend and protect Fauci?

I saw an interesting take from someone that suggested that it was not far fetched to believe that we would soon see some (if not most) Democrats and media types throw Fauci under the bus to protect their own reputations in light of the contents of his diary and the documents released by Tulsi Gabbard last month.

Fauci has already seen what the Democrats and media did to another man in his 80's to protect their  credibility and power.

If they could do it to the President of the United States it would be much easier to do it to Fauci.

I cannot imagine Fauci is sleeping well these days.

Fauci seems destined to be seen in the future as more a fool than a hero, if not a full-fledged villain.

That might be enough justice itself for a man so consumed with his celebrity and status within the D.C.and media establishment.

In the meantime, I can sleep well knowing I did not let the sizzle and sycophants surrounding Fauci cloud my analysis and judgment regarding the substance of what I saw to be a deeply flawed man.

This and That---July 27, 2026 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Out of Work?

I have cited polls recently that suggest that many voters have a negative view of the health of the economy.

One example is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index that is currently at the lowest it has been since the survey began in the early 1960's.

Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsh.pdf

U of M's Current Economic Conditions Index tells a similar story.

Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicch.pdf

Let's put these "sentiment" surveys in context.

Those are lower scores than during any recession in the last 60 years.

Lower than the 1979-1981 period when we had double digit inflation for three consecutive years.

Lower than the early 1980's when mortgage rates hit 18%.

Lower than the period between late 1982 and early 1983 when the employment rate was more than 10%.

Lower than when the entire economy was shut down with Covid.

Lower than in 2022 when inflation was running at over 8% per year.

I wrote about these surveys and contrasted these "feelings" with real "facts" about the economy in a blog post in May titled "Consumer or Political Sentiment".

I wrote this in the conclusion to that blog post.

What have we become if sentiments and feelings override real facts?

What chance do we have if people ignore the reality that surrounds them but are willing to be manipulated by news headlines and social media?

Why can't we return to a point where we assess facts and make decisions based on the real world rather than our biased political leanings?

When political sentiments control anything and everything in a society you are on a slippery slope to a slow death.

Here is another data point that I came across last week that runs counter to the narrative expressed in that survey data.

Initial jobless claims (' Layoffs") just hit the lowest level relative to the workforce in 57 years.

Only 1 in 1,000 workers filed for unemployment last month.

Credit: https://x.com/StephenMoore/status/2080734810847244526

This is even more astounding considering everything we hear about the threat to jobs due to technology, innovation and AI.

The day may come when AI is impacting the workforce but right now the data shows that fewer workers should be worried about being laid off and out of work than anytime in the last half century.

Unemployment Rates

The national unemployment rate for June, 2026 was 4.2%

That is a very low rate based on historical standards.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

It has been trending down for the last 6-7 months.

However, the unemployment rate varies by state.

Credit: https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2081002677551464710

What do the states with 5.0% or higher unemployment have in common?

They all have Democrat governors.  Most also have legislatures completely controlled by Democrats.

Is that just a coincidence?

MidTerms

I am often asked what I think will happen with the approaching midterm elections.

My answer is I have no idea,

I do know the fact that the midterm election cycle has historically resulted in the President's party losing on average 26 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate since World War II.

This would be a disastrous result for Trump and the Republicans.

Some argue that bis swings in Congressional races are not as likely in this day and age due to the way the partisan manner in which districts are now drawn.

There are very few "swing" seats anymore. They either tilt heavily red or blue.

As always, a lot will depend on the vote of Independents and voter turnout in November.

Independent voters will most likely be heavily influenced in what happens in Iran and gas prices.

If the United States remains bogged down in Iran and gas prices are high these voters will likely let the Republicans know it in the midterm election.

On the other hand, if Trump is able to open the Strait of Hormuz, bring regime change in Iran and show the Mideast is on a path to a peace we have not seen in our lifetimes it could bring a surge of support for Republicans.

One thing is for sure.

Democrats intensely disapprove of Trump.

On the other hand, Republicans are backing Trump like no other President in recent memory.

Joe Biden was also in the same approval range with his own party as Bush and Obama.

A President is not in real trouble until he starts losing the approval of his own party.

Republicans continue to solidly back Trump. That is the big reason his endorsement of candidates is so powerful.

In the end, as always, turnout will be very important in determining the midterm elections.

Who shows up to vote will determine the midterms more than anythng else.

This Is What I Voted For

The two charts below explain very well why Trump has a high approval rating with Republicans.

A common response from most in seeing this would be, "This is what I voted for".

The first shows illegal border crossings.

Recall that Democrats said that this was not possible without a massive new immigration law.

It was a lie.

The second shows the decrease in the number of those on food stamps in Illinois since the new work requirements were put into law in Trump's Big Beautiful Bill last year.

My guess is that a secondary reason is that there are also fewer illegal immigrants collecting SNAP benefits as well since deportations began under Trump.

Credit: https://x.com/illinoispolicy/status/2080097564066746503

Trump's greatest strength as a politician is that he does what he says he is going to do.

This causes Trump Derangement Syndrome in Democrats who are used to someone saying one thing and doing another.

It engenders loyalty in Republicans.

Trump's problem with Independents is that they did not vote for a war with Iran and higher gas prices.

Continuing To Check White Privilege

Freshman Congressman Brandon Gill (R-TX) made headlines this week by questioning Dr. Anthea Hartig who is the Director of the Smithsonian's National Museum of American History during a Congressional hearing.

At age 32 Gill is the third youngest member of Congress. 

Based on what I have seen, he has a bright future in front of him.

Source: https://redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2026/07/21/brandon-gill-squares-off-with-smithsonian-american-history-museum-director-n2204578

 

Most of Gill's questions involved a "MASS Action Toolkit" that the National African American National Museum developed that Hartig oversees as part of her responsibilities with the Smithsonian.

I wrote about that toolkit back in 2020 and the utter lunacy of it.

It continues to amaze me that there are those who promote these ideas and attempt to defend them.

Objectivity and rational thinking is an example of white supremacy?

So is being polite?

As is being on time and being self reliant?

Thanks for Brandon Gill for exposing this "wokeism gone wild" to a wider audience.

My blog post from 2020 follows.

Checking White Privilege

(originally published July 16, 2020)

We are hearing a lot about white privilege these days.

We also hear that those who are white need to learn to check their privilege.

If you are white, there is nothing you can do about the color of your skin. The same holds true whether the pigment of your skin is black, brown or another shade.

It seems that some are now attempting to describe aspects of "whiteness" or "white culture" that need to be looked at critically because certain beliefs and customs are supposedly making nonwhite persons feel abnormal or inferior.

The Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of African-American History and Culture recently posted a guide to “Whiteness” and "White Culture" in the United States on its website that seemed to be intended to indicate those behaviors that might need to be modified to keep white privilege in check.

As you read this bear in mind that your tax dollars paid for this. This museum was opened in 2016 during the Obama administration and cost $500 million of which half was funded by the federal government. 70% of the annual operating costs of the Smithsonian are funded by Congress.

You might also ask if you have ever read anything more racist in your entire life?

What is so repugnant and racist in this list is that it seems to suggest that these are not valuable human traits but are only aspects of white culture that are not shared, appreciated and have proven important to the success of the human race generally.

There is little question that all of these have been foundational pillars of what has made the United States of America the greatest country in the world today. 

I would humbly suggest that we need a lot more of everything on this list by a lot more people of all races considering what we see around us right now.

That includes a whole lot of white people who apparently have never understood that these were supposed to be a part of "their" culture.

Here is a partial list of those supposed "whiteness" traits.

Self Reliance

Individualism

The nuclear family

Children should be independent

Emphasis on the scientific method

Cause and effect relationships

Objective, rational linear thinking

Be polite

Hard work is the key to success

Work before play

Respect authority

Plan for the future

Delayed gratification

"Tomorrow will be better"

Property and entitlements deserve protection in the justice system

Be on time and value your time

If you attempt to go to the Smithsonian website link above you will no longer find these graphics. You can also see a copy here as written about in Powerline.

They have been taken down in the last 24 hours after many raised the same questions I have in this blog post.

Interestingly, the infographics above seem to have been adapted from the work of Judith Katz who works for a consulting firm that does diversity training for corporations and others.

Credit: The Kaleel Jamison Consulting Group

Katz wrote this book in 1978 on how to do anti-racism training.

Does anyone else find it interesting that this woman wrote a book on anti-racism training 42 years ago?

She has also been accepting consulting fees from various corporations for decades on diversity and anti-racism training.

How is it then that we are told that racism is as prevalent as ever and we have institutional and systemic racism that makes it impossible for minorities to succeed in the United States?

What has her work accomplished? 

It could be argued that lists like those above are more about creating divisions among us rather than focusing on those things that should unite us.

For example, if you take the list above I would argue that it is probably more indicative of Asian American traits than whites in this country.

Self-reliant. Strong families. Polite. Punctual. Work before play. Respect authority. Plan for the future.

These are universal traits of successful people that have nothing to do with race, color or creed.

That may be one of the reasons that those of Chinese, Indian and Japanese descent outperform whites by large margins in income, education outcomes, test scores and incarceration rates in the United States.

For example, the median household income for white Americans was $67,865 in 2016 according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Compare that to the median household income for other ethnic ancestry groups in the United States.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey and Wikipedia

Rav Arora, the son of Indian immigrants recently wrote an opinion piece in the New York Post titled "The fallacy of white privilege and how its corroding society". 

He points out that all of the minorities above have had to endure different forms of discrimination but they have not let it hold them back.

This includes immigrants from predominantly black countries.

Interestingly, several black immigrant groups such as Nigerians, Barbadians, Ghanaians and Trinidadians & Tobagonians have a median household income well above the American average. Ghanian Americans, to take one example, earn more than several specific white groups such as Dutch Americans, French Americans, Polish Americans, British Americans and Russian Americans. Do Ghanaians have some kind of sub-Saharan African privilege?

Nigerian Americans, meanwhile, are one of the most educated groups in America, as one Rice University survey indicates. Though they make up less than 1 percent of the black population in America, nearly 25 percent of the black student body at Harvard Business School in 2013 consisted of Nigerians. In post-bachelor education, 61 percent of Nigerian Americans over the age of 25 hold a graduate degree compared to only 32 percent for the US-born population.

Take another look at the list of traits above.

I would suggest that teaching those principles in America's schools would do more to put ALL children on the path to success than spending billions of dollars on diversity training and telling people to check their white privilege.

I can't think of anything that is more injurious, debasing or racist than to suggest to any minority that they need not concern themselves with being a hard worker, being polite, respecting authority, valuing time and believing that tomorrow will be better because those are "white" traits.

You wonder why we are where we are today?

Look no further than this type of "thinking" and "teaching".

Data Center Data

It appears that we can expect the construction of data centers to be an increasing political issue over the next several years.

There are already more than 4,000 data centers that are operational in the United States according to Axios.

Virginia leads the nation in operating data centers with 663 followed by Texas with 405.

Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/12/18/data-center-growth-map-states

Data centers have been around for some time as they are the backbone of the internet and the digital economy,

They are the home for thousands of networked computer servers that store, process and manage the digital world we live in today.

They are behind your ability to browse the internet, stream movies and music, store photos, keep track of your Amazon order and bank online.

The introduction of cloud computing and artificial intelligence has resulted in even greater demand for larger and larger data centers.

3,000 additional data centers are now under construction or planned in the United States.

Texas and Virginia continue to be the leaders in data center development.

However, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona are all seeing a lot of data center activity.

Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/12/18/data-center-growth-map-states

The size and scale of these new data centers is something to behold.

There is one under construction along I-71 between Cincinnati and Columbus that I passed a couple of months ago.

When finished I believe it will be similar to this data center that Amazon recently opened in October, 2025.

The reported cost of the Ohio facility that I drove by is $5 billion.

I spoke to a principal in a large construction firm based in Virginia earlier this year who told me that over the last several years almost their entire book of business has shifted from commercial building to data center construction.

His comment is supported by this graph that shows changes in U.S. construction spending between May, 2023 and May, 2024.

Source: https://americanedgeproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Americas-AI-Surge-Powering-Growth-in-Every-State.pdf

Data center construction projects provide massive economic benefits.

According to this report, a typical data center construction project employs 1,600 to 1,700 local workers during the build-out and adds a quarter of a billion dollars to the local economy.

However, the surge in the demand for data centers has resulted in increasing push-back from more and more people.

This is driven first and foremost by a NIMBY  ("Not in my backyard yard") mindset.

Having a data center in your backyard is not much different that having an airport, a refinery or a wind farm considering their size and the utility lines necessary to power it.

There was a "national day of protest" against data centers this past weekend.

Source: https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2026/07/19/nation-world-news/us-data-center-protests-go-national-as-backlash-grows/

Opponents of the rapid buildout of data centers held 142 protests across 42 states on Saturday in the first nationwide effort to channel anger at the AI infrastructure expansion that has ramped up over the past year and roiled local politics.

The protests were coordinated by a grassroots group called HumansFirst, co-founded by a former leader of the modern-day Tea Party. She compares growing opposition to data centers to the right-wing populist movement that emerged in 2009 to protest what it saw as excessive taxation and government overreach.

The organizer of that protest might have been a conservative but the data center issue is also sure to also be popular with a lot of left wing activists.

Democrats Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez earlier this year called for a moratorium on all AI data center construction.

Their concerns center around the potential loss of jobs due to AI as well as environmental issues.

For example, critics of these data centers complain about what they call the excessive water usage in these facilities. 

Water is used in data centers to cool the servers to prevent equipment failure and to control humidity to protect against static electric that might damage delicate components.

However, let's look at the water usage of data centers compared to other uses for this resource.

Source: https://www.axios.com/2026/06/25/water-energy-ai-flashpoint

This suggests to me that citing water usage as a concern for data centers is considerably overblown.

However, that does not mean that a data center in a single community will not place additional strain on the locality's water resources. 

At the same time, I imagine anyone developing a data center location is not going to build it without sufficient resources to support it over the long term.

The other big concern often expressed are the electricity demands for these data centers.

They require enormous amounts of electricity.

For this reason many of the data centers are building their own electric generation supply onsite because of long queues to connect to the grid.

Some new data centers are funding the reopening of mothballed nuclear plants for their sole use.

Gas turbine generation, onsite solar and batteries and small modular nuclear reactors are other methods being used to get the 24/7 power these data centers require.

This graphic shows the 20 largest data centers under construction and the electric capacity needs measured in gigawatts. 

For context, one gigawatt of power is capable of supplying about 750,000 average homes.

Source: https://orennia.com/insights/the-20-largest-data-centers-being-developed-in-north-america

People are worried that these data centers will mean additional energy use, grid constraints and higher utility bills.

It is understandable because we have reached a point in which our lives are dependent on electricity.

We need it to heat and cool our homes. We need it for refrigeration and cooking. We need it for lighting and to access the internet. We need it for automatic garage door openers and to charge our phones.

If the power is out in your home for a couple of hours you quickly realize just how dependent you are on that power.

This summary of a Gallup survey on the concerns about data centers breaks it all down.

How much electricity do data centers use?

In 2025 they consumed about 5% of total electric demand in the United States.

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/how-much-energy-do-data-centers-and-artificial-intelligence-use

This demand will increase but even if it doubled it would only amount to 10% of electricity demand in the United States.

Where is electricity being used by sector currently?

Source: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser

Residential typically consumes 33% of total electricity demand today.

Commercial uses are about 39%.

Industrial uses 28% of total electricity. 

25 years ago each of these sectors used about one-third of electricity demand.

As more industry went offshore the electricity required to support it declined.

Less electricity is used in the Industrial sector today than 25 year ago in absolute terms.

The electricity used to support Industrial uses has been transferred to the Commercial sector which generally includes public, private and government office buildings and nows include data centers.

As we have moved to a digital economy it is natural that more resources would be required to support it.

I understand the concerns about the number of data centers but it needs to be understood that this infrastructure is what is likely going to power the U.S. economy in the coming decades.

We can ignore that reality but the United States will lose to China and others if we think we can compete economically without this infrastructure.

All of the complaints about data centers reminds me of the criticism we heard about fracking as it first was introduced in the United States.

We were told that fracking was going to contaminate the water table and supply. it was going to cause earthquakes and result in dangerous methane leaks.

How is it we hear almost nothing about any of these issues anymore?

Two-thirds of all oil and 75% of all natural gas production in the United States now comes from fracking.

If we had listened to the naysayers the United States would not be energy independent and the economy would look a lot different than it does today.

The United States now produces over twice as much oil today as it did in 2010.

Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_field_production

The United States is producing more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia COMBINED.

The United States is also the leading producer of natural gas in the world.

Where would we be if we had listened to the critics and fear mongering?

In addition, do we know how much of the opposition to data centers is being fueled by our enemies?

Consider this recent New York Times story which explains that both China and Russia are running major foreign operations to fuel opposition to data centers in the United States.

Why would they do that?

It goes without saying that we need to be diligent in protecting our natural resources and carefully consider the placement of new data centers to insure the least amount of disruption to our environment and population centers.

However, if we want to continue to take advantage of our digital economy. its future potential and the leading position that the United States has in this sector, it cannot be done without the infrastructure to support it.

Data centers are as critical in that regard as fracking has been in drilling for more oil and gas.

If you don't believe it, try living without what fracking and those data centers provide us and see what it means to your quality of life.