Consumer or Political Sentiment?

The University of Michigan has been conducting a Consumer Sentiment Index since 1966.

The Index of Consumer Expectations seeks to find how consumers view three things:

• Their own financial situation
• The short-term general economy
• The long-term general economy

The index is normalized with a value of 100 equal to the consumer sentiment in the first quarter of 1966 when the first survey of consumers was conducted.

I have followed the Consumer Sentiment Index for a number of years but recently I have begun questioning how much validity it has.

Is it truly measuring consumer sentiment or has it become nothing more than a tool that reflects back political sentiment from an increasingly divided body politic?

Consider the most recent release.

The Consumer Sentiment Index for May, 2026 is reported to be the lowest it has been in the 60 years it has been tracked with a value of 44.8.

Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

That is driven in large part by the consumer viewing current economic conditions as the worst it has been since 1966.

Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Think about that.

That is lower than during any recession the last 60 years.

Lower than the 1979-1981 period when we had double digit inflation for three consecutive years.

Lower than the early 1980's when mortgage rates hit 18%.

Lower than the period between late 1982 and early 1983 when the employment rate was more than 10%.

Lower than when the entire economy was shut down with Covid.

Lower than in 2022 when inflation was running at over 8% per year.

Let's compare that with actual facts and data on the economy right now.

The unemployment rate is 4.3%.

It is one of the better unemployment numbers in the last 50 years.

The inflation rate is 3.8%.

It has increased over the last two month due to gas prices but it is still substantially lower than it was four years ago.

The national average price for a gallon of gas on this Memorial Day weekend is $4.50 per gallon.

Source: https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts

It was around $3.00 per gallon before the Iran conflict started.

However, gas prices surged to over 5.00 per gallon under Biden.

Prices were also $3.72 per gallon in 2012 under Obama.

As I pointed out in an earlier blog post, $3.72 per gallon adjusted for inflation would be $5.40 per gallon today.

We have a growing economy.

First quarter 2026 GDP increased from the last quarter of 2025.

It is also growing faster than almost the entire 2010-2020 period after we were coming out of the Great Recession.

There has not been a sustained recession (ignoring the self-inflicted Covid downturn) in the United States since 2009.

It is the longest period without a downturn in economic activity in United States history.

Consumer spending was up 0.9% in March and 0.6% in February.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main

Even including increased gas prices in April, consumer spending growth was strong according to a Bank of America analysis.

Source: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-may-2026.html

Source: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-may-2026.pdf

Think about what you see around you on a daily basis.

Do any of you go to restaurants, malls, Costco, the airport and other places that are not crowded with people spending money?

Finally, the stock market is at record highs.

The S&P 500 is up 26% in the last 12 months and 9% year-to-date.

How could consumer sentiments in the index regarding economic conditions be so far removed from reality?

A lot of it is tied to political sentiment.

Democrats thought the economy was doing great during the Biden administration.

A 100 index score quickly has become a 37 under Trump.

Source: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/110440/us-michigan-consumer-current-index-within-political-party

At the same time, Republican voters gave economic conditions under a huge thumbs down under Biden which rebounded as soon as Trump was elected.

Notice how there has been a disparity in sentiment by party since political party association was first tracked by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey beginning in 2017.

However, that disparity has gotten to be huge in the last three years.

The negative consumer sentiment also continues into expectations in the survey.

Consumer expectations for the future are also lower in the survey than at any time in the last 60 years other than the 1979-1981 period when we were in the midst of three consecutive years of double digit inflation and a recession on top of it---STAGFLATION.

The University of Michigan has taken note of the increased political divide in its consumer sentiment index but argues that the numbers are valid because the sentiment of political Independents in the index largely tracks polling of all consumers nationally in other surveys.

Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/independents202605.pdf

However, this data is still at odds with the reality of facts and data of current economic conditions.

Who could really argue that economic conditions today are worse than when Covid shut down the economy in 2020 and 2021 or when we had 8% inflation in 2022?

Something else is at work here.

My guess is that consumer sentiment ends up being more a reflection of the narrative created in the mainstream and social media rather than actual facts on the ground

What have been some of those narratives since Trump took office again in January, 2025?

Trump's tariffs are going to cause inflation.

Trump's tariffs are going to wreck the economy.

AI is going to put everyone out of work.

Data centers to run AI are going to consume all U.S energy energy and result in huge utility rate increases.

The Mideast is going to end up in all out war due to Trump standing up to Iran and gas prices will go through the roof.

Who is most susceptible to headlines like these?

Independent voters who do not pay as much attention to the issues and the context around them.

All that being said, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index findings right now should be a cautionary tale for all of us.

What have we become if sentiments and feelings override real facts?

What chance do we have if people ignore the reality that surrounds them but are willing to be manipulated by news headlines and social media?

Why can't we return to a point where we assess facts and make decisions based on the real world rather than our biased political leanings?

When political sentiments control anything and everything in a society you are on a slippery slope to a slow death.

This and That---May 22, 2026 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Top Tier Blogger

It is reported that there are 600 million blogs online.

I noted in my blog post yesterday that May, 2026 has already seen BeeLine receiving more views than in any month since I began writing.

BeeLine has been averaging almost 5,000 views per day in May, 2026.

That will translate into 100,000-150,000 views for the month.

This may seem small when viewed compared to the major blog sites out there.

However, with 600 million blogs it is not easy to capture views in the blogosphere.

The largest blog sites capture tens of millions of views led by SkySports that generally reports soccer news.

People.com is considered the second largest blog site.

Most Popular Blogs
Source: https://www.wix.com/blog/blogging-statistics-and-facts

From my perspective, I do not even consider these as blogs.

I would define them as news consolidation sites.

BeeLine is not going to ever compete with soccer or celebrities for views.

The most popular blog topics are largely related to personal topics---food, health, beauty, parenting, travel, etc.

Source: https://www.goatsontheroad.com/blog-topics-that-make-money/

BeeLine might touch on these areas once in a while (see orange juice below).

However, these are not the topics where I typically need to bring facts and data to put these issues into better context.

My audience is a more select group who are more interested in a deeper dive at issues that go beyond narratives, headlines and emotions.

The comment I received from Ross yesterday makes me feel very good about what I write about.

Let's put BeeLine's reach this month into better context.

With 600 million blogs out there on the internet what does it take to be considered in the top tier when it comes to audience views?

I went to Google AI for the answer.

Thank you BeeLine readers.

You have made BeeLine a top 1% tier blog.

Where Have The Oranges Gone?

Many of you are familiar with this carton on your breakfast room table.

However, are you aware that Florida is now only producing 5% of the oranges it did 30 years ago?

Brazil produces 70% of the world's orange juice supply today.

Mexico is far behind in second place ahead of the U.S.

Global Leaders in Orange Juice Production 2025/2026
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1044896/world-orange-juice-major-producers/?srsltid=AfmBOoqbyKYPINcFOi9H9Mwr69yClVYdVVOPd0vkBtVtZ_82apNvzUzP

What happened to Florida oranges?

Florida's Natural orange juice is no longer 100% Florida Premium.

It is now a blend of Florida and Mexican oranges.

From the Florida's Natural website.

Covid is not the only disease that came from Asia.

Religion in Iran and the United States

Iran is governed and controlled by a Shia Muslim theocracy.

The official name for the country is the Islamic Republic of Iran.

However, less than one-third of the country identifies as a follower of the Shi'ite Muslim faith.

Just another 5% identify as Sunni Muslims.

Therefore, more than 60% of Iranians are living under the control, laws and restrictions of a religious regime to which they have no affiliation with.

They are trapped within a extremist religious regime that is representative a distinct minority of the country's population.

Some claim that this survey was biased in that it was done online and slanted to those with internet access.

However, even if the % of Muslims in Iran is understated somewhat, contrast that with the United States.

The United States is overwhelmingly a Christian nation.

Almost 80% of the population identify as a Christian.

Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Religions_of_the_United_States_pie_chart.svg

The irony in all of this is that in the United States a very large Christian majority has been increasingly marginalized over the years while in Iran a minority of Shia Muslims rule the Iranian people with an iron hand.

The Conquest of Europe

Meanwhile, in Europe...

Ironically, over the same period at least 50,000 mosques in Iran have closed.

Nothing seems to destroy Islam more than having to live under its strict dictates and rules.

Is this why so many want to move to Western countries?

Beware The Heat

"Packing the Heat" is a slang expression used in the United States to refer to carrying a gun.

It is something Europeans have a hard time understanding with their strict gun laws.

They cannot understand the number of deaths by gun violence there are annually in the United States.

Those in the United States do not understand the aversion that Europeans have for air conditioning.

About 20% of European buildings have air conditioning compared to 90% of homes in the United States.

The widespread European resistance to air conditioning is often attributed to higher energy costs, green policies restricting installations, and cultural preferences for passive cooling.

Which is more dangerous to human life?

Packing heat in the United States or attempting to survive the heat of summer in Europe without AC?

You probably did not expect this answer.

Stay cool in the coming months with a tall, cool glass of Florida orange juice.

The Shale Revolution-Redux

I am republishing my blog post from yesterday on "The Shale Revolution" as I became aware of a problem with the email distribution this week.

I use the vendor Follow.it to distribute the blog post content I write.

For that service I personally pay for their premium option to provide you the content under the BeeLine label without any advertising.  I have never sought to monetize anything to do with my blog and have no desire to ever charge a subscription fee to access the content. 

BeeLine will always be free.

Due to an error, my premium option was changed to the Follow.it basic option that is a free service but is delivered under the Follow.it name and also contains advertising.

A number of you got this week's content under that option.

Several others told me that they did not receive the emails at all this week.

For that reason, I am republishing yesterday's blog post.

If you missed Monday's post, "The Collapse of Connection" you can access it here.

I apologize for any confusion. 

Thank you again for subscribing to BeeLine.

Despite the distribution problems, this month has seen the highest readership of my blog for any month since I starting writing over 15 years ago.

BeeLine has averaged almost 5,000 views per day so far in May, 2026 despite the hiccup.

I know many of you also forward my blog posts on through email to others which are not captured in the statistics covering the blog website.

That number of views may seem modest when viewed in the enormity of the social media space but it is gratifying to me that there are so many interesting in fact-based content that attempts to put the issues of the day in their proper context.

I sincerely appreciate all of you. 

Thank you.

The Shale Revolution

(originally published May 20, 2026)

It is incredible to see how the United States has been transformed from the largest importer of oil in the world to the one of the largest exporters of oil over the last 20 years.

None of this would have been possible without The Shale Revolution.

In the 2005-2010 period the United States was importing as much as 450 million barrels of oil per month while exporting less than 50 million. A trade deficit of 400 million barrels per month.

Today the United States is a net exporter of oil that totals about 100 million barrels per month.

This is largely due to the shale revolution that, more than anything, has made the United States energy independent. 

The United States has also become the largest oil producer in the world.

 

In fact, the United States now produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia (#2 and #3) COMBINED.

It is also allowing President Trump to negotiate deals with Europe, China and others to buy our oil and gas and reduce our overall trade deficit.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-china-wants-buy-oil-us-2026-05-15/

Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-share-europes-lng-imports-increased-60-january-2026-01-30/

Natural gas from shale drilling has also saved American consumers trillions of dollars in energy bills over the last 20 years.

A recent analysis by UC Berkeley's Energy Institute at Haas concluded that cheaper natural gas due to shale drilling in the United States had resulted in around $5 trillion in savings for natural gas consumers since 2007.

Let it not be forgotten that none of this would have occurred if liberal Democrats had their way.

When Donald Trump ran for President in 2016 he often referred to his energy policy this way,

"Drill Baby Drill".

At the same time, Democrats such as Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were opposed to exploration of shale oil and gas.

Democrat-run New York is one of the liberal states that bans fracking exploration for shale oil and gas despite having some of the largest reserves in the United States within its borders.

When Barack Obama was President in 2012 he said that "we can't just drill our way to lower gas prices".

He said that at a time when gas prices nationally were $3.72 per gallon.

The Shale Revolution proved Obama wrong.

We did drill our way to lower prices. 

This chart of U.S. crude oil production shows how it was done..

The United States is producing over twice as much crude oil as it did in 2012.

Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_field_production

Natural gas production in North America has increased from 65 BCF (billion cubic feet) in 2010 to 110 BCF day.

That increase is almost entirely due to The Shale Revolution.

This is the major reason as to why natural gas consumers in the United States saved $5 trillion over the last 20 years.

 

Credit: https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2056845087653417019

For most of the last 15 years gas prices at the pump have been well below that $3.72 Obama-era price due to U.S. drilling of shale oil reserves.

Increased supply kept gas prices in check.

For some portions of the first Trump term, gas prices actually were below $2 per gallon.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W

Adjusted for inflation, that $3.72 price for a gallon of gas in 2012 would be $5.40 today.

Yes, gas prices are high right now due to what is going on with Iran but the enhanced national and economic security that the shale revolution has provided to the United States cannot be overstated.

It is yet another reminder how important it is on who we elect as our representatives.

If you think it is bad right now, you really have no idea how bad it could have been if the shale revolution was never allowed to evolve.

The Shale Revolution

It is incredible to see how the United States has been transformed from the largest importer of oil in the world to the one of the largest exporters of oil over the last 20 years.

None of this would have been possible without The Shale Revolution.

In the 2005-2010 period the United States was importing as much as 450 million barrels of oil per month while exporting less than 50 million. A trade deficit of 400 million barrels per month.

Today the United States is a net exporter of oil that totals about 100 million barrels per month.

This is largely due to the shale revolution that, more than anything, has made the United States energy independent. 

The United States has also become the largest oil producer in the world.

 

In fact, the United States now produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia (#2 and #3) COMBINED.

It is also allowing President Trump to negotiate deals with Europe, China and others to buy our oil and gas and reduce our overall trade deficit.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-china-wants-buy-oil-us-2026-05-15/

Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-share-europes-lng-imports-increased-60-january-2026-01-30/

Natural gas from shale drilling has also saved American consumers trillions of dollars in energy bills over the last 20 years.

A recent analysis by UC Berkeley's Energy Institute at Haas concluded that cheaper natural gas due to shale drilling in the United States had resulted in around $5 trillion in savings for natural gas consumers since 2007.

Let it not be forgotten that none of this would have occurred if liberal Democrats had their way.

When Donald Trump ran for President in 2016 he often referred to his energy policy this way,

"Drill Baby Drill".

At the same time, Democrats such as Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were opposed to exploration of shale oil and gas.

Democrat-run New York is one of the liberal states that bans fracking exploration for shale oil and gas despite having some of the largest reserves in the United States within its borders.

When Barack Obama was President in 2012 he said that "we can't just drill our way to lower gas prices".

He said that at a time when gas prices nationally were $3.72 per gallon.

The Shale Revolution proved Obama wrong.

We did drill our way to lower prices. 

This chart of U.S. crude oil production shows how it was done..

The United States is producing over twice as much crude oil as it did in 2012.

Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_field_production

Natural gas production in North America has increased from 65 BCF (billion cubic feet) in 2010 to 110 BCF day.

That increase is almost entirely due to The Shale Revolution.

This is the major reason as to why natural gas consumers in the United States saved $5 trillion over the last 20 years.

 

Credit: https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2056845087653417019

For most of the last 15 years gas prices at the pump have been well below that $3.72 Obama-era price due to U.S. drilling of shale oil reserves.

Increased supply kept gas prices in check.

For some portions of the first Trump term, gas prices actually were below $2 per gallon.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W

Adjusted for inflation, that $3.72 price for a gallon of gas in 2012 would be $5.40 today.

Yes, gas prices are high right now due to what is going on with Iran but the enhanced national and economic security that the shale revolution has provided to the United States cannot be overstated.

It is yet another reminder how important it is on who we elect as our representatives.

If you think it is bad right now, you really have no idea how bad it could have been if the shale revolution was never allowed to evolve.

The Collapse of Connection

There has been an enormous decline in the percentage of seniors in high school who say that they have consumed alcoholic drinks.

From over 90% in the 1980's to less than 50% today.

On its face, this should be viewed as a positive development.

However, this trend in likely not because teens are more health conscious.

They just are not hanging out with friends.

They are not socializing and making connections with others.

They are not dating as much and not having sex.

More than 50% of high school students had engaged in sex in 1991.

Less than one-third have today.

They are not even driving as much.

Only 25% of 16 year-olds have a driver's license.

 

That is about half of what it was in 1981.

Even more surprising to me, only 60% of 18 year olds were licensed drivers.

And only 80% of adults in their 20's had a driver's license in 2021.

I guess it is great that young adults are not drinking and driving and having sex.

However, what are the implications and why has so much changed in the last 30-40 years?

The reasons for the collapse in connection is undoubtedly multi-faceted.

However, it is hard to overlook the fact that the trends accelerated after the introduction of smartphones in 2008.

Almost half of teenagers say they are online "almost constantly."

That is double what it was ten years ago.

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/teens-and-internet-device-access-fact-sheet/

It goes without saying that if you have your head buried in your phone you are not going to be connecting very much with other human beings.

You also apparently are not very motivated to get your driver's license.

It must just be easier to use your phone and have an Uber take you where you want to go.

The use of smartphones and internet usage is also a reason why most marriages today result from meeting others online than through traditional connections such as via friends, work, school or the bar scene.

Notice how the personal connections (friends, family and neighbors) that used to dominate the "meet market" have dropped the most.

When you are not in the real world interacting with others there is a lot that is missing in the formative period that used to transform adolescents into adults.

Adjusting to life as an adult has never been easy. 

Dealing with social hierarchy, responsibility, accountability, rejection, shame, courage and all the rest.

Living life and having to deal with other human beings provided a lot of these lessons in the past during the adolescent years.

The collapse of connections is delaying this maturation process.

It is also delaying marriages.

Later marriages also reduces the overall fertility rate.

The biological clock of a woman is immutable.

Consider fertility rates in the United States over time.

Source: https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/2055408053952860331

This graph tells us there will be a lot fewer children in primary and secondary schools in the coming years.

Colleges are going to come under increasing pressure due to fewer prospective students, due not only to lower birth rates beginning in 2008, but also increasing questions about the value proposition of college considering its high costs and uncertain job prospects.

The Financial Times recently did an article that suggests that fertility rates around the world have

 collapsed in the wake of the introduction of the smartphone.

Perhaps it is merely correlation rather than causation but there seems to be no denying that the collapse of connection is also having an effect on the collapse in birth rates.

From the article.

Nathan Hudson and Hernan Moscoso-Boedo of the University of Cincinnati published a paper last month looking at birth rates through the lens of the rollout of 4G mobile networks in the US and UK.

The number of births fell first and fastest in the areas that received high-speed mobile connectivity earliest. The authors argue that smartphones have transformed how young people spend time with one another, sharply reducing in-person socialising and leading to the collapse in their fertility.

FT research indicates the same trend has affected other countries.

For example, US, British and Australian birth rates for teens and young adults were broadly flat during the early 2000s but began to fall markedly from 2007.

The same slide began in France and Poland around 2009, and in Mexico, Morocco and Indonesia around 2012. What had been steady declines in fertility in Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal became precipitous drops between 2013 and 2015.

All of these inflection points coincided with the mass adoption of smartphones in local markets — as measured by Google searches for mobile apps.

In country after country the birth rate plunged after the introduction of smartphones, no matter what the previous trend was. The younger the age group, the more pronounced the downturn — a mirror image of smartphone usage patterns.

Melissa Kearney, professor of economics at the University of Notre Dame, says it is “quite plausible that the modern digital media environment has had profound effects on society that have led to a decline in romantic coupling”.

Indeed, Hudson and Moscoso-Boedo’s thesis that the key factor is less time spent socialising in person is supported by evidence from dozens of countries. In South Korea young adult in-person socialising has halved in 20 years.

“To meet a person you are going to marry requires filtering through a lot of people,” says demographer Lyman Stone. “If you socialise much less, it takes you much longer to find a match if you find one at all.”

He adds: “If you spend lots of time socialising with your peers in the real world, your standards [for a potential partner] are anchored in the real world. If you spend your time on Instagram, your standards are anchored to an artificial sense of what is normal.”

It is useful to consider the total implications of all of this and where the trends take us.

1. Collapse of Connection

2. Collapse of Coupling

3. Collapse of Children

4. Collapse of Civilization

If you doubt it, consider this eye opening factoid about where Thailand ends up if it continues with its current 0.8 fertility rate.

You don't need to get to 200 years to find out.

The civilization will be gone long before then.

An 0.8 fertility rate will result in a reduction in the population of a civilization of 60%-80% within two generations.

By that time most of the connections humans have may be limited to their personal robots.

Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/robot-personhood-rights-responsibility-safety-europe-1.4044741