Covid, China and a Tripledemic?

If you have not been paying attention lately a lot has changed with Covid.

Cases are soaring in China compared to what has been reported in the past.

Covid cases per million people in China are still a fraction of what is being seen in countries such as Australia, Germany, Japan and the United States.

However, the ability of China to maintain low case numbers has come at a tremendous loss of freedom to the Chinese people under the Zero Covid policies of the Chinese Communist Party.

The significant question to be answered over the next few weeks is whether China will be able to continue to pursue the lockdowns and mandates associated with its Zero Covid policies in the face of emerging protests by the masses.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/26/china/china-protests-xinjiang-fire-shanghai-intl-hnk

What is also interesting is that each of the biggest global adversaries of the United States (China, Russia and Iran) are embroiled in large protests by its citizens related to government policies.

These are authoritarian governments.

It takes real courage to take to the streets and protest what government leaders are doing. It literally could be the last thing that you do.

It shows the level of frustration and anger boiling beneath the surface with the people in these countries.

Could the United States find some way to take advantage of this situation and give these people some hope for freedom?

Color me less than optimistic with the current administration in charge.

In the meantime, in the United States, influenza and the respiratory virus RSV are much more prevalent after being almost undetectable for the better part of the last two years.

For example, hospitalizations for influenza for those age 65+ were almost non-existent for weeks 40-45 (red line in the chart below) in 2020 and 2021.

That is no longer the case. 

The traditional flu season is yet to come. However, flu cases are already exploding. Will this trend continue or is this season just early this year?

A similar pattern is seen in RSV hospitalizations.

There were very few hospitalizations in the 2020/2021 (blue dotted line) and 2021/2022 (thin green line) seasons but there has been an explosion in RSV thus far this season (bold green line)

 

Why?

Did viral interference with Covid outcompete these other viruses in the last two years and they have no come back with a vengeance?

Did Covid policies such as lockdowns, masking etc. result in immune suppression such that the immune systems of people are not as well primed to fight off the flu and RSV as before?

Did the Covid vaccines cause some type of immune suppression that is making vaccinated people more vulnerable to other diseases?

A Midwestern Doctor discusses the possibilities in a substack post that might be of interest.

While the flu and RSV are in a resurgent trend, Covid has thus far settled down in the United States compared to the last two years at this time.

If you look again at the chart above comparing cases in Australia, Japan and Germany you will also see that the United States case counts are much better than in these other counties.

It should be noted that all of these countries also have much higher vaccination rates than the United States.

That makes it difficult to argue that the lower case counts are due to vaccinations.

It seems much more likely that natural immunity has been more responsible for the decline.

New reported cases are now about 50% of what they were at this time last year and 25% of what they were two years ago.

Of course, cases surged in each of those years in December in the wake of Thanksgiving gatherings and colder weather causing more people to stay indoors.

Will we see a tripledemic of Covid, influenza and RSV in the coming months?

Dr. Fauci and Biden Covid Advisor Dr. Ashish Jha have hit the airwaves hard over the last week warning about a possible tripledemic this winter.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/27/white-house-fauci-jha-covid-vaccines

It seems that the only real advice they have is for everyone to get vaccinated with the new bivalent Covid booster and a flu shot. There is no vaccine for RSV.

To be fair, Dr. Fauci did tell everyone that they should take a Covid test before going to any Thanksgiving gatherings. How many of you did that?

Source: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/11/22/anthony-fauci-urges-americans-to-get-covid-tests-before-thanksgiving-everybody-should-be-vaccinated/

Of course, when Fauci says "everybody should be vaccinated" he is talking about the full five doses, including the new bivalent Covid booster, and this year's flu vaccine.

The American people don't seem to be buying what they are selling.

Only 11% of Americans have gotten the new Covid booster.

The number of flu doses administered is the lowest it has been in recent memory,

Only 42 million doses had been administered by the end of October according to the CDC. By comparison, 62 million doses of flu vaccine had been administered by that time in 2020.

What has caused this change?

Could it be that our public health authorities have lost a substantial amount of credibility over the last two years with ineffective, and what turned out to be inaccurate statements, about our Covid response and the efficacy of the vaccines?

Will we see a tripledemic?

I have no doubt that we will see all three surge at some point this winter.

However, I doubt we will see all three peak at the same time. My belief is that viral interference will prevent all three from being dominant simultaneously.

An increasing number of epidemiologists subscribe to that view.

That was very much a minority view when I first advanced that theory as to why the seasonal flu had seemingly disappeared with the emergence of Covid in 2020.

You may recall that in October, 2020 Dr. Fauci was warning that we would be facing a twindemic in the 2020/2021 season caused by Covid and the flu.

I questioned that view based on the data I was seeing around the world, most particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, that was just coming out of its winter flu season. Flu had practically disappeared there while Covid was present.

I wrote the following on October 19, 2020 regarding viral interference.

It will also be interesting to see if we see a twindemic in the United States that Dr. Fauci and other experts are predicting.

This data indicates to me that Covid may be in some way blocking the flu virus from replicating in the population. It is almost as if Covid is bigger and stronger so that the flu cannot get established in the community when Covid is present.

As always, we will find out together what happens in China with Covid and the United States with any tripledemic.

I am not a betting man but I would not wager much on whether Dr. Fauci and friends are any better at predicting a tripledemic than they were a twindemic.

Or anything else that he was so famously wrong about over the last three years.

I wish Dr. Fauci a very happy and healthy retirement.

He says he is merely transitioning to another chapter in his career.

Perhaps he is thinking he can lend a hand to the Chinese.

It seems he might have had some experience in doing that previously.

Source: https://nypost.com/2021/10/21/nih-admits-us-funded-gain-of-function-in-wuhan-despite-faucis-repeated-denials/

400 Years---A Divergent Path

The first Thanksgiving was held in 1621.

The Pilgrims had experienced an enormously challenging first year in the New World after landing at Plymouth Rock a year earlier.

In their first two months, half of the Pilgrims died during the harsh winter.

Their first year of farming (1621) was disappointing. Those that remained after that first year were just thankful to be alive at that first Thanksgiving.

The following year (1622) was not much better. There was stealing and hoarding among the ranks because the harvest was still meager.

Entering 1623, the leaders of the Pilgrims knew that the status quo would no longer suffice.

Major changes were necessary if they were to survive and succeed in their new home.

The Pilgrims had come to America with an agreement that they would function as what we would call today a "socialist commune". What they each produced individually was put into a common warehouse from which each family then took out their individual needs as determined by the Governor.

As you might expect, while everyone took what they needed, many did not do their fair share of work.

It was clear entering 1623 that changes had to made if the Pilgrims were going to survive and prosper.

As a result, in 1623, after two years of failure, the Pilgrims abandoned the status quo and went in another direction. 

The change in direction that the Pilgrims made is an interesting story if you were not aware of it before.

I first wrote about it in these pages back in 2013.

It is a more interesting story right now considering the parallels between 1622 and 2022 and the status quo election we have just experienced.

After two years of failures, the Pilgrims recognized that the status quo had to change 

In 2022, where we have just completed a status quo election after two years of failures that are hard to ignore, we apparently are on another path.

400 years later we know the Pilgrims made the right choice.

Will the same be said in the history books about the decisions that were made in 2022?

Pilgrims, Prosperity And Poverty

(originally published November 28, 2013)

I am thankful for many things.  My family. My friends. My job. I could go on and on. The list is very long.

I am most thankful I was born in the United States of America.  A country founded on the concept of individual rights and freedom.  A country that has embraced the idea of economic freedom, property rights, and capitalism.

Of course, I was born at a different time than where we seem to be today in our attitudes about some of these ideals. Will our young people be as thankful as I am about their country of birth?  I certainly hope so.  However, it amazes me how we fail to accept the reality of the failings and foibles of the human condition throughout history. As a result, the same mistakes and missteps plague us no matter how many times the history lesson is taught.

Look no further than Venezuela.  What was once the one of the most prosperous South American countries now languishes under a socialist regime despite rich natural resources.  Communist North Korea can't feed its own people while South Korea is giving a tablet computer to every school child. 

Taiwan flourished in freedom while Red China floundered for decades before it embraced capitalist-based economic reforms. The same was true for East and West Germany.  In all of these cases there was no difference in the people.  They were literally blood brothers and sisters.  It was the governmental system and philosophy that made the difference between prosperity and poverty for the nation's people.

Speaking of history, let's revisit the story of the Pilgrims and the origins of Thanksgiving Day. The story as I learned it in school was about a group of rugged individuals who set sail on The Mayflower in 1620 seeking religious freedom in America.  They encountered many hardships that first year but thanks to help from Indians and the Grace of God (I am sure this is no longer mentioned in the textbooks) they reaped a bountiful harvest in the following year and gave thanksgiving with a giant feast.

The First Thanksgiving At Plymouth, Jennie Augusta Brownscombe

The real story is much more enlightening.  It also shows that there is absolutely no question about which system works best to provide the most prosperity for the most people and limits poverty.  There should be no debate. There is absolutely no question.  It has been shown to be true over and over again. However, over and over, we see those who think there is a better, more humane, way to best provide for people in a society.

The real story of the Pilgrims was written by William Bradford who was the leader of the Plymouth Colony from 1621-1657.  He wrote "Of Plymouth Plantation" to chronicle the story of the Pilgrims and it is recognized today as the most complete authoritative source on the subject.

One of the best summaries I have read about the Pilgrim story was written by Dr. Judd W. Patton, "The Pilgrim Story: Vital Insights And Lessons For Today".

Let's start at the beginning.  When the Pilgrims decided to go to America they had a problem not uncommon to many of us. They did not have enough money. They lacked the funds to sail to America, equip and establish their colony.  As a result, they got financial help from some investors who financed New World adventures in return for a share of what the colonists made through farming, fishing, trade and other working endeavors.

The contract between the Adventurers (Investors) and the Pilgrims consisted of ten points. The most critical of which stated, “That all such persons as are of this colony are to have their meat, drink, apparel, and all provisions out of the common stock and goods of the said colony.” 

Today we would call this a socialist commune. In other words, the Pilgrims accepted the socialist principle, “from each according to his ability, to each according to his need.” Each person was to place his production into the common warehouse and receive back, through the Governor, only what he needed for himself or his family. The surplus after seven years was to be divided equally, along with the houses, lands, and chattels, “betwixt the Adventurers and Planters.” 

The first year after they set sail for America was particularly difficult.  The voyage itself took sixty-six days. They landed first on Cape Cod even though they had intended to reach the mouth of the Hudson River.  They spent another month sailing the coast of Cape Cod until they finally decided to settle in Plymouth at the site of an old Indian village on December 21, 1620.

Within two months, half of their numbers died. Of the 24 families who had set sail, only four were untouched by death that first year.  Four other families were wiped out completely.  Those that made it to that first Thanksgiving were thankful.  However, it wasn't necessarily because of a bountiful harvest. They were just happy to have survived.

Contrary to legend the harvests were extremely poor in 1621 and 1622. It was normal to be hungry. Governor Bradford referred to 1621 as the “the small harvest” year.  Yet he notes that in “the summer there was no want.” Thankful for what God had given them, Governor Bradford declared a three-day feast for the purpose of prayer and celebration. We all know it as the first New England Thanksgiving – apparently observed in late summer.

Things were marginally better in 1622. The harvest was a little better but many Pilgrims held back and did not work as hard as others.  There was stealing and hoarding. Bradford and the other Pilgrim leaders recognized that this would continue unless they changed the system.  What could they do to prevent another poor harvest?

This is how Governor Bradford tells it in "Of Plymouth Plantation".

“So they began to think how they might raise as much corn as they could, and obtain a better crop than they had done, that they might not still languish in misery. At length, after much debate of things, the Governor (with the advice of the chiefest amongst them) gave way that they should set corn every man for his own particular, and in that regard trust to themselves; in all other things to go on in the general way as before. And so assigned to every family a parcel of land…This had very good success, for it made all hands very industrious, so as much more corn was planted than otherwise…The women now went willingly into the field, and took the little ones with them to set corn; which before would allege weakness and inability; whom to have compelled would have been thought great tyranny and oppression.”

The socialist system was discarded and replaced with a system that was built on individual property rights and that put the trust in individual initiative to take care of the common good of the colony.

How did that work out?

In 1621, the Pilgrims planted only 26 acres. Sixty acres were planted in 1622.  But in 1623, spurred on by individual enterprise, 184 acres were planted!  Somehow those who alleged weakness and inability became healthy and strong. It’s amazing what incentive will do to improve bad attitudes!

However, the Pilgrims still had their challenges. The summer of 1623 was hot and dry. For almost two months there was no rain. Their crops were in jeopardy. Governor Bradford did not lose faith.

Governor Bradford then set a “solemn day of humiliation (fasting) to seek the Lord by humble and fervent prayer in this great distress.” Their prayers were answered. By evening it began to rain. It revived the corn and other fruits. Even the Indians were astonished. The soft showers continued along with beautiful fair weather. The result was a “fruitful and liberal harvest …for which mercy they also set apart a day of thanksgiving.”

By the fall of 1624, the colonists were able to export a full boat load of corn! And the Pilgrims settled with the Adventurers. They purchased the Adventurers stock in the colony and completed the transition to private property and free markets.

The rest is history.  The experience of the Pilgrims went a long way to forming the values and principles upon which our Founding Fathers created a new nation unlike anything the world had ever seen before. It came to be the most prosperous and powerful country ever known to mankind. For that I am forever thankful to the Pilgrims and the others who endured trials and tribulations to give me the life I have today.

As we celebrate Thanksgiving it is useful to remember the Pilgrims and what their experience can teach us.  I think Dr. Patton summarizes the lessons pretty well.

The Pilgrim experience dating from 1623 was and is yet a prototype for the United States of America.  They learned the hard way that: (1) Socialism does not work; it diminishes individual initiative and enterprise; (2) Socialism is not a Godly economic system; and (3) Famine and drought can be used by God to humble a people and set them on a proper course.  The Pilgrims responded.  The real question today is:  Can Americans learn these vital insights from the Pilgrims or must we too face famine and drought in the coming years?

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Law of Gravity

Sir Isaac Newton is credited with formulating the law of gravity after watching an apple fall from a tree.

He asked why the apple had fallen straight down rather than sideways, or even upwards?

The law of gravity encompasses apples on a tree to satellites shot into space.

What goes up eventually comes down.

We have witnessed the same general rule with great empires, powerful corporations and economic conditions.

It is difficult to continue to ascend or to maintain a high standing over time.

Gravity eventually rules.

Look no further than what we have witnessed with cryptocurrency company FTX in the last week or so.

Its FTT crypto token has lost over 98% of its "value" in a little over a year. It is essentially trading where it was when it was introduced.

It is estimated that investors have lost BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars.

It has been reported that the top 50 customers of FTX alone have lost over $3 billion. 

Gravity at work.

As we are about to start another year how much will the law of gravity apply to other issues that might be important to us?

A couple of charts to suggest that the forces of gravity may come into play.

The ratio of US housing costs to income.

If we do not see incomes rise substantially or lower mortgage rates, housing prices will be falling in 2023.

Mortgage demand has already fallen to the lowest level since 1997.

Credit card and other consumer debt have expanded massively over the last year.

This indicates that the consumer is under a great deal of pressure and consumer spending may have to tighten considerably in 2023.

Consumers loans (blue line) and personal saving (red line).

To make matters worse, the average interest rate on credit card debt has risen to the highest level since this measure was first tracked beginning in 1994.

In the meantime, retail inventories have grown substantially (up over 20%+) over the last year as supply chain issues improved. Retailers have a glut of inventory just as consumers are starting to come under pressure.

This may mean more holiday sales than last year as retailers try to turn that inventory to cash.

Source: https://www.axios.com/2022/11/18/holiday-shopping-sales-discounts-supply-chains

Further good news is that unemployment is near the lower end of historical averages.

However, this is partially due to changes in the workforce which is seeing thousands of older baby boomers retire and a lack of younger workers filling the labor force gap.

Consider the growth in the labor force over the decades.

The civilian labor force in the 2020's is growing on average at only .3% per year.

This is a mere fraction of the 2.6% it was growing at in the 1970's.

The large increase in the 1970's was caused by baby boomers entering the workforce.

The small increase in the labor supply in the 2020's is due to those same baby boomers retiring.

Declining birth rates over the last 50 years are the reason.

There is another country that is going to see huge impacts on its workforce in the future due to declining birth rates.

China has quickly become a demographic disaster.

Births have dropped by over 40% in the last five years. 

This is AFTER China abandoned its one-child policy and already in deep demographic trouble due to an imbalance between young men and women.

Source: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1590088023064154113/photo/1

You have to wonder how long it will be before the Communists in China are in the bedrooms of its citizens forcing them to procreate?

Where else do I see a threat of the law of gravity in the United States in 2023?

I suggest keeping a close eye on layoffs at the major social media/internet companies.

They went on a hiring binge over the last decade and it intensified when the Covid pandemic and lockdowns greatly benefitted their business models.

Meta (formerly Facebook) would have to layoff over half of its current workforce to get back to 2018 employment levels. That is 36,000 employees.

Credit: https://twitter.com/eladgil/status/1589271330255699972

Alphabet (formerly Google) would have to reduce employment by almost 58,000 employees to get back to 2018 levels.

Credit: https://twitter.com/eladgil/status/1589271330255699972

 

Layoffs have already started at Amazon.

Its employment at the end of 2021 had doubled in the two years of Covid from 800,000 to 1,600,000 employees.

Source: https://www.statista.com/chart/7581/amazons-global-workforce/

Of course, Elon Musk has already started to lay people off at Twitter.

50% of its employees were laid off in the first couple of weeks after Elon acquired the company.

Twitter had about 7.500 employees before the layoffs began.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-exec-says-50-employees-lost-jobs-following-acquisition-2022-11-04/

I don't know where the law of gravity will have the largest impact in 2023.

However, you can expect that it will.

It may be wise to keep a parachute close by should you need it.

The Costs of Regret

I recently wrote about the authoritarian like vote percentages for Democrats at two college campuses in the midterm elections.

Arizona State    96% for Democrat Katie Hobbs

University of Michigan    94% for Democrat for Democrat 

How do you get results like this in places that are supposed to be beacons for diversity, debate and dissenting opinions?

I guess it is somewhat predictable for a bunch of 18-22 year old kids who really have not been exposed to the real world.

Unfortunately, once exposed to the echo chamber that colleges have become, where there is a repetitive mantra of progressive and liberal dogma, it is likely to shape one's views for a long, long time.

This is borne out in the exit polling data for the 2022 midterms.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house

It appears the longer one is exposed to the echo chamber of what is supposed to be "education" the more likely one will vote Democrat.

Is that a coincidence?

In my earlier post I also singled out the repetitive messaging of mainstream media and social media. Their propaganda efforts seem in large part to be responsible for the disconnect in the electorate between reality, common sense and the votes in the midterm elections.

Is it also a coincidence that the "most regretted college major" is Journalism?

Source: https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/regret-free-college-majors/

Is the leftist, progressive bent of the media connected to the fact that many in the journalism field feel trapped in a profession that they regret getting into?

As a result, are those views shaping their leftist bias?

If you look at the list above, it is also probably true that Sociology, Liberal Arts, Communications and Education majors lean decidedly to the left on the political spectrum.

On the other hand, here are the 10 college majors that are the most regret-free.

Source: https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/regret-free-college-majors/

College graduates with these college majors would generally be considered to be to the right of those on the prior list.

It is also undoubtedly true that those who most regret their college majors are also likely to be the most vocal and politically driven in their belief that their student debt should be forgiven. 

Therefore, it follows that Joe Biden would tell young voters that he was forgiving up to $20,000 of their student debt though an executive order that was clearly a political ploy to drum up enthusiasm before the midterms.

Of course, that student loan debt forgiveness plan has now been declared invalid by a federal court.

Is it also a coincidence that the ruling came out just days after the midterm elections?

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/11/10/1135940851/student-debt-relief-biden-blocked-texas-district-court

 

President Biden's plan to erase federal student loan debts for tens of millions of borrowers hit a legal wall Thursday, when a U.S. District Court judge in Texas called it unlawful and vacated the debt relief program.

The federal government quickly appealed the decision, which came just weeks before student loan payments are set to resume in January. The program was already on hold while a federal appeals court in St. Louis considers a separate lawsuit by six states challenging it.

I expect we will not have a final decision on this issue until the Supreme Court rules.

That is not likely to happen soon and the current pause of student loan debt payment (which has now been in place for almost three years) is scheduled to expire in January.

That means money may soon have to be paid on those loans by those disgruntled Journalism and Sociology majors.

In the meantime, the entire legal foundation for the student loan pause and Biden's debt cancellation plan, is based on the fact that we are in a public health emergency due to Covid.

However, this week the Senate voted to end the Covid emergency on a 62-36 vote 

Interestingly, 12 Democrats voted with 50 Republicans to end the emergency.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3908703-senate-votes-to-end-covid-19-emergency-but-biden-threatens-to-veto-any-effort

The vote will probably be symbolic as it is doubtful that a 2/3 vote in both the Senate and House could be achieved to override Biden's veto. However, it shows how important that emergency declaration continues to be for student debt cancellation and other issues such as free Covid tests and vaccines.

The Senate vote also shows that it is getting harder for Democrats to defend the Covid emergency declaration. That is especially true for the 23 Democrats seeking reelection in 2024.

Of course, the major reason that Biden used the executive order route to attempt to cancel student debt remains.

He clearly did not think he could get it through Congress although Democrats controlled both houses of Congress.

It looks like it will be even more difficult in 2023 if the executive order is struck down by the courts.

It all means an even more depressing and regretful life for those Journalism majors in 2023.

Any hope for a nice vacation, a new smartphone or some drugs and alcohol to dim the regret from their choice of major and profession is narrowing.

A recent survey of student loan borrowers who planned to ask for the loan cancellation were asked how they would spend the money they saved by not paying off the debt.

73% of the student borrowers said they were likely to spend their extra money on non-essentials, including vacations, smartphone, drugs/alcohol.

This is a summary of the top spending categories from the survey as summarized by The Washington Examiner.

Source: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/students-plan-vacation-binge-with-biden-bailout-dough

Your tax dollars at work.

You work.

Journalists and other leftists push an agenda and want your tax dollars to fund their life.

Could it all have been avoided by simply selecting a better college major?

Ship of Fooled

If there was one event that signaled to the world that we were facing a pandemic,  the likes of which we had not seen in 100 years, it was what we saw with the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan in February, 2020.

The Diamond Princess had arrived at its home port of Yokohama, Japan after leaving on a 15-day roundtrip cruise that included a stop in Hong Kong. It is there that an 80-year old passenger from Hong Kong disembarked the cruise after not feeling well for the first five days of the cruise. Upon seeking treatment he was given a Covid test and the rest is history.

The Diamond Princess ultimately returned to Yokohama on February 3, 2020 after 14 days (a day earlier than scheduled) with all of the passengers and a good portion of the crew quarantined in their cabins.

Passengers and crew were left quarantined on the ship in Yokohama Harbor for another two weeks days as tests were conducted daily to determine if they carried the virus which was then thought to have an incubation period as long as 14 days.

Ironically, I was on a ship in Yokohama harbor 18 months before for a day when there was fuel supply issue and we had to leave the dock and anchor for a day awaiting the dock opening so we could be refueled.

I can't imagine being quarantined in a ship cabin for that length of time but I can attest to the fact that the view from the cabin at night in Yokohama is spectacular.

This is the view from my cabin in October, 2018.

691 ultimately tested positive for the virus out of 2,666 passengers and 1,045 crew on the Diamond Princess..

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7156812

There could not be a much better place to observe the effects of a highly transmissible virus than in the confines of a cruise ship.

There were many important lessons to be learned about the virus in those early days if anyone was paying attention.

Despite the close quarters, the attack rate of the virus was less than 20%. Why did some people avoid being infected?

That attack rate was later confirmed in other studies involving members of the same household.

More than half of the Covid positive tests involved asymptomatic cases.

Cases were more predominant in the older passengers (average age in the 70's) than the younger crew members.

Source: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html

Seven deaths were later attributed to the infection from Covid on the Diamond Princess.

All were over the age of 70.

Keep in mind that all of this was known a month before the first lockdowns in the United States in March, 2020.

Fast forward to news from Australia last week.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-63605824

This was after a 12-day round trip cruise that had sailed around New Zealand.

In accordance with Australian rules, all 4,600 passengers and crew were fully vaccinated. Almost all were boosted. All passengers had to have a negative Covid test before boarding.

Source: princess.com

The vast majority of the cases were among the 3,300 older passengers. Only a small number of the crew were infected.

There have been no reported deaths thus far.

What I find interesting is the attack rates of the virus between 2020 and 2022.

2020 Diamond Princess (no vaccinations) 18.6%

2022 Majestic Princess (all vaccinated) 17.4%

There is almost no difference and undoubtedly the Majestic Princess numbers are undercounted as all passengers were allowed to leave the ship upon arriving in Sydney. There will undoubtedly be more positive cases discovered.

I can't think of a better example to show the utter insanity of the Covid policies that were implemented, most particularly the vaccine mandates.

It is also interesting to look at the experience of Australia before and after vaccinations were introduced to its population.

Consider these charts on cumulative cases and deaths in Australia since the beginning of the pandemic.

Some would argue the rise in cases and deaths in Australia was due to the relaxation of harsh Covid lockdowns and mask rules.

However, isn't that in itself an admission that the Covid vaccines and mandates were totally useless to prevent infection and transmission?

There is also the issue of the excess deaths Australia is experiencing this year.

The graph below from an actuarial group in Australia compares the deaths in Australia for the first five months of 2022 compared to the previous seven years.

It shows that deaths in 2022 are running 12%-17% higher than previous years depending on the baseline   estimate that is used.

Source: https://www.actuaries.digital/2022/08/31/covid-19-excess-mortality-for-may-2022-at-similarly-high-levels-to-earlier-in-2022/

This is an enormous deviation from the norm.

To put how extraordinary that is, a 10% deviation would be considered three-sigma event and a once in 200 year event.

Only about 50% of the excess can be explained by reported deaths from Covid according to the actuaries.

What is causing the rest?

No one seems to want to know the answer at this point.

Just as the Diamond Princess provided a lot of answers early in the pandemic that seemed to have been ignored, perhaps one day we will find that there were also answers hiding in plain sight on what is causing these excess deaths in 2022.

Right now we continue to be sailing on the Ship of Fooled.

Fastening Chains To Their Own Ankles?

We were told during the Trump years we were becoming an authoritarian state.

We were told in the run up to last week's election that democracy was at stake.

On college campuses we are told how important it is to have diversity for the strength of our society.

Contrast these statements with the vote totals in the midterms on two college campuses that I have seen  reported.

At the University of Michigan reports are that 94% of students voted for Democrat Gretchen Whitmer.

Michigan is a state that allows for same day voter registration.

A great number of these students registered and voted on Election Day.

At Arizona State University, 96% of the students voted for Democrat Katie Hobbs.

There was concern about an authoritarian state?

We were told democracy is at stake?

The vote totals on these college campuses indicate that is the case but it is not from Donald Trump or any Republicans.

I can fathom 60/40 or even 70/30 splits in the vote.

95%/5%?

You don't see vote totals that are this lopsided in authoritarian states like Russia, Venezuela and Iran.

In his last election, Vladimir Putin of Russia only garnered 77% of the vote.

Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela was only able to capture 68% of the vote for his reelection in 2018.

Ebrahim Raisi of Iran got 72% of the vote in 2021.

The vote totals on these college campuses are similar to what you might find in Syria (Bashar-al-Assad re-elected with 95% of the vote in 2021) which is ranked as the 5th most authoritarian regime in the world.

The fact is that the votes on these college campuses are not far from the 100% vote totals for the Communists (there is no other choice) in China, North Korea and Cuba.

However, these young voters did not have a gun to their heads.

There was no national police in place to intimidate them.

They did not risk being imprisoned for their views.

It seems to me that these vote totals are no reason for anyone to be celebrating.

It is evidence of a lack of critical thinking, diversity of opinion and a dangerous herd mentality on college campuses.

Aren't all of these the antithesis of everything colleges are supposed to be about?

All of this is apparently the result of an education system, mainstream and social media that have aligned with messaging that is equal to the best propaganda techniques.

Source: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/brainwashing?page=1

It was proven long ago that people tend do believe what is repeated over and over, whether it is true or not.

This has long been the tool of propagandists.

Do these voting patterns with young voters not look like the result of brainwashing?

I know that is harsh but how else do you arrive at numbers like this in what is supposed to be a free and democratic society?

Whatever the reason, these students appear to have set a path for a very bleak future for themselves... and for the rest of the country.

Source: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/brainwashing?page=1

George Orwell himself might have found himself surprised how far down that path we are on considering the youth vote in the midterms.

Source: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/brainwashing?page=1

Reality and common sense are already apparently irrelevant to young voters.

If these are the people that we are counting on to lead the country forward and protect its great legacy, we are in deep, deep trouble.

The Status Quo Election

The November, 2022 midterms provides another lesson on why making predictions about how elections will turn out is dangerous.

That is why I try to avoid making any prognostications on what will be happen in any election.

If the pollsters can't get it right.

If those putting real money into the betting markets can miss so easily.

How can I believe that I know what people will do in the voting booth?

I look at facts and data and try to make conclusions that are rational and logical.

I am not a psychiatrist.

For example, look at this data from the midterm exit polling.

73% of voters in House races stated they were Angry (34%) or Dissatisfied (39%) with the way things are going in the U.S.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house

76% of voters in the same poll stated that the economy was Poor (38%) or Not So Good (38%).

80% stated that their family's financial situation was Worse (47%) or About the Same (33%) than it was two years ago. Only 19% said it was Better.

Logic would say that these numbers would drive a call for change in the midterms.

If the status quo looks this poor, why would you not vote for change?

However, election results right now suggest that the House and Senate will not look much different in 2023 than it does today. 

The Democrats picked up one Senate seat in Pennsylvania (Fetterman over Oz) where Pat Toomey (R) is retiring. The Republicans look poised to win Nevada where Adam Laxalt is currently leading incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by 2.5% points.

The House could possibly be in GOP hands by just a few seats just as the Democrats have been in a similar position the last two years.

Not one incumbent Governor lost.

As of now, the Democrats have won the governorships in deep blue Massachusetts and Maryland due to the retirement of Republican governors. However, it was an anomaly that the GOP controlled these seats in these liberal states in the first place. 

Arizona could yet flip to the Democrats but that race is still up in the air. Kari Lake (R) now trails Katie Hobbs (D) by about 13,000 votes but there are hundreds of thousands of votes that have not been counted.

Despite what the voters said about how they feel things are going in the country, and in their personal financial situation, they voted for the status quo.

Trying to make sense of it is a fool's errand.

Gretchen Whitmer (D) in Michigan, who presided over some of the most restrictive and authoritarian state Covid policies in the country won her reelection bid by just over 10 points.

Ron DeSantis (R) in Florida, who kept Florida open and free of most Covid restrictions, won by almost 20 points in a state that he won by just .4% four years ago.

Mike DeWine (R) in Ohio, which borders Michigan, who played Covid more as a centrist (strict early but more reasonable later) won reelection by 25 points.

The political pundits are trying to explain why the big Red Wave did not materialize as the pollsters predicted.

A popular narrative is that it was Donald Trump's fault.

Source: https://twitter.com/JohnnyB48976846/status/1590428261133131776

I think this is being significantly overplayed by those who are anti-Trump.

Candidates who Trump endorsed in the GOP primaries (Vance-OH), (Budd-NC) won. That may also include Kari Lake in Arizona and Herschel Walker in Georgia before it is over.

Dr. Oz was endorsed by Trump in the GOP primary but Oz was the most centrist candidate in that race. He also had high name id, was highly media polished and a whole lot of things you want in a candidate that should be attractive to important swing suburban mothers. 

It did not matter. Oz lost to a man who wears almost nothing but a hoodie and is barely able to carry on a conversation.

One of the reasons Fetterman won is that he did not debate until over 800,000 early votes had already been cast in Pennsylvania. Of course, that debate was an absolute disaster for Fetterman. 

If Oz could not win in Pennsylvania, I don't know who would have done better for the GOP.

The same is true for Walker in Georgia. After all, two high profile Republicans lost in Georgia two years ago.

Who would have done better?

Herschel Walker got 48.7% of the vote on Tuesday. Kelly Loeffler, Warnock's opponent in 2020, got 49.0 % in the runoff race. David Perdue, received 49.4% of the vote against Joel Ossoff. There is not a 1% difference in the results. 

Walker also captured 87.8% of the total vote that Loeffler received in the runoff election two years ago. Warncok received only 85.0% of the votes he received in the 2020 runoff. That argues that Walker did not come up short because he was a poor candidate. Georgia is just a huge demographic challenge for Republicans today compared to a a decade ago.

Brian Kemp, the incumbent Republican Governor, did run about 4.5 points better than Walker in his rematch with Stacy Abrams but incumbency was obviously a big advantage in a status quo election.

What is also missing in the trashing of Trump is the bigger picture of what has transpired in other states that used to be called SWING states.

States like Florida, Ohio and Missouri were once considered purple. They are now solid Red states.

Trump had a lot to do with that electoral shift.

Trump's ability to draw working class voters also made states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania competitive compared to a decade or so ago.

Trump's current record on endorsements?

Despite all of that, Tuesday's results were not good for Trump in comparison to DeSantis.

It was a BIG night for DeSantis.

No one comes out looking better in either party than the Governor of Florida.

DeSantis benefited from a strong results-based incumbency record that made it easy for Florida voters to make it a status quo election. They were not in the mood to mess with anything that was working in that state.

His resounding win gives DeSantis a lot to build on if he chooses to run for President in 2024.

What is my best explanation for what appears to be an illogical result based on the stated views of the voters?

As I wrote about in the prelude to the midterms, turnout is always critical.

It appears that Democrats did a much better job of getting their voters to the polls than the GOP did.

Most of that advantage is in their use of mail-in and early voting.

Midterms never get the turnout that Presidential elections years get.

Turnout in midterm elections used to be a big problem for Democrats. Two of their key constituencies--young voters and minority voters---were much less likely to turnout for the midterms.

On the other hand, Republican voters (many who are older)  could be reliably counted to vote in both cycles.

The advent of  expanded mail-in voting and long early voting periods due to Covid have been highly advantageous to Democrats.

The Democrats have used the long voting periods to micro-target voters. This appears to have been particularly effective with disinterested voters who don't pay much attention to politics but may have one big issue they are passionate about. 

Consider this data on mail and early voting in Pennsylvania,

Democrats turned out 47% of the numbers in the midterms in early voting compared to what they did in 2020.

Republicans only turned out 40%.

Early and Mail-In Ballots in Pennsylvania
2018, 2020, 2022

Fetterman captured 77.5% of the votes that Biden got in 2020.

Oz only got 72.8% of the votes that Trump got two years ago.

Oz lost principally due to turnout.

If he would have gotten the same turnout that Fetterman did (77.5%) on Trump's 2020 results he would have gained 159,000 votes of the 181,000 that he is behind right now.

The exit poll data also indicates that Fetterman beat Oz with Independents 58%-38%--a 20 point margin. 

Trump did 12 points better with Independents against Biden in 2020.

It is hard to look at the numbers and say that Trump was a drag on these GOP candidates when he actually ran better than they did.

We don't have the final numbers but clearly the Democrats were also able to get the 18-29 age group to the polls in the midterms.

I published the chart below in 2014 to contrast the reliability of older voters with young voters in the lead up to the 2014 midterms.

Young voters put Obama in The White House in 2008 but didn't bother to show up in 2010 to defend Democrats in Congress.

 

Older voters turned out in the same numbers each year.

The result was a loss of 63 Democrat House seats in 2010. The Democrats lost 13 House seats in 2014.

I don't have to look far to know that young voters had to show up in pretty significant numbers in 2022 when you compare the voting preferences by age in the exit poll.

It was a Red Wave but for the votes of 18-29 year olds.

More to the point, it was a Red Wave with everyone but single, 18-29 year old females.

Republicans won every other group---married men, married women and single men.

The abortion issue may partially explain this result. However, the percentage share of the vote (23%) and the Democratic preferences numbers (66%) were not materially different in the 2018 midterms when abortion was not a major issue for anyone.

How do you explain the huge divide by age?

My take is that young voters paid almost no attention to the economy or how things are going in the country with their vote.

Most were driven by some type of WOKE issue.

This a group that has known nothing but prosperity and low unemployment levels during their lifetimes.

None of these voters were even out of high school when the 2008 financial crisis hit.

They have seen the high gas and food prices but have bought into the narrative that this is just due to bad luck, Covid or Putin. It has nothing to do with policy choices.

They have not seen tough economic times. They have not seen any significant unemployment except when the government enforced the Covid lockdowns.

They believe that it is more important that someone uses the correct pronouns or is monitoring the gastric output coming from cattle ranches than the price of gasoline or the flood of illegals into the country.

They have been taught that the United States is a racist country and that most every problem is the result  of capitalism, climate change, a criminal justice system that is unfair or Christopher Columbus.

It has been said that people get the government they deserve.

It is also true that some lessons can only be learned the hard way.

Most people will abandon the status quo only when confronted with a significant emotional event that forces a change in their perspective of views.

Elephants are trained in the circus with a bracelet around a leg attached to a pole in the center of the ring that does not allow them to wander beyond the length of the chain.

Once trained, the chain is removed but the bracelet on the leg remains. However, the elephant has learned to not stray from the ring no matter the circumstances. Eventually the bracelet can be removed. They blindly accept the status quo.

It takes a fire in the tent and smoke reaching their nostrils to get the elephant to abandon the circus ring and the status quo they know.

This age group (and most particularly single women) voted for the status quo?

They saw nothing at all to think about voting for any change?

If this group did not move in 2022 I don't see them moving in the future without something that shakes them and their views to the core.

This does not portend a very optimistic future for any of us.

We are hurtling down the road for a rendezvous with history of our own making.  Two clearly marked paths were there for the choosing.  Choices were made.  We all will have to deal with where it leads.

My guess is more pain is on the way.

The status quo will not be an option with where we are headed.