How Red Will It Be?

The midterm elections are next week.

I am increasingly being asked what I think will be the result of the election.

Most political pundits seem to agree that the Republicans are poised to pick up enough seats to assume the majority party in the House.

Control of the Senate is a bigger question.

Let's take a BeeLine look at the political landscape heading towards the midterms.

Midterm elections are traditionally challenging for the incumbent President's party.

Joe Biden's current approval ratings suggest that is even truer this year.

Most surveys show Biden's job approval rating at around 40%. 

Biden's approval rating is undoubtedly not helpful for Democrat candidates this year.

In the last 21 midterm elections (dating back to 1938) there have only been two times that the incumbent party gained House seats (1998 and 2002). The average loss of House seats in a midterm election is 33.

However, the last two times there was a Democrat elected (Clinton and Obama) in their first mid-term election after taking office (Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010), the Democrats lost 53 and 63 House seats, respectively.

There is a suggestion in that data to me that voters reacted negatively when they saw that the country was being governed on a much more liberal basis than what was promised during the election.

Might that also be the case in 2022?

There have only been four times in the last 80 years that the President's party has picked up midterm seats in the Senate. The average loss of seats in the Senate over the other 16 midterm election cycles has been 5.5.

History suggests that it will be difficult for Democrats to avoid losses in the midterm elections. If these historical averages are to hold in 2022, the GOP would find themselves in the majority in both the House and Senate. 

This chart from Gallup summarizes some of the key indicators that played into recent midterm election results in the House.

If you look at the four key indicators this year, they are all near historically low values. 

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/404414/gop-political-winds-back-2022.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

If history is any guide, the Republicans should expect to gain at least 20-25 seats in the House based on these factors alone.

I consider it unlikely the GOP would gain more than 35 seats under the best of circumstances considering the fact that the prior large Red wave elections came about when the Republicans were starting with much lower total numbers in the House.

For context, a gain of 34 seats by the Republicans in the 2022 midterms would give the GOP the most seats they have held in the House since 1928.

As for the Senate, the Democrats are fortunate to have to only defend 14 seats in 2022 compared to the 21 seats that Republicans have to defend.

These numbers alone make it unlikely that we will see a swing close to the average 5 seat swing for mid-term elections in the Senate.

If the Republicans are able to pick up a net 3 seats this year I would consider it a major victory for the GOP.

Anything above that is going to require a massive Red wave.

If you are looking for a signal that we might see that, pay attention to the New Hampshire Senate on election night. If former General Don Bolduc is beating current incumber Democrat Senator Maggie Hassan it bodes well for the GOP.

Even if the Democrats can retain the current 50-50 split in the Senate, they face a brutal map in 2024 in which they need to defend 23 states while Republicans only have to defend 10 states in that cycle.

In addition, there are 36 races involving Governor seats as well as substantial numbers of state legislative seats up for grabs in the midterms.

I have followed politics for a long time and if I have learned anything it is difficult to make firm predictions about anything.

For example, in 1994 I saw the Speaker of the House, Tom Foley, lose to a political newcomer. That had not occurred to any other Speaker since the Civil War. No one predicted that outcome,

Of course, I also witnessed the election of Donald Trump that we were told was impossible.

This graph shows how Trump's prospects looked on a chart during the 2016 election. He was given a 15% chance on Election Da by the New York Times election forecast..

Source: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/forecast_incentives3.pdf

Momentum is a big factor in deciding elections and that does seem to favor Republicans right now.

Most polls have shown Republican candidates gaining support recently.

I am old enough to also remember Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter being in what was called a toss-up race going into Election Day, 1980. Reagan ended up winning in a landslide.

Reagan had all of the momentum after the final debate and it carried him to victory.

Trump also had it in the last two weeks in 2016.

Obama defeated Romney in 2012 with a boost of momentum he got after the response to Hurricane Sandy.

The most critical factor in elections is turnout.

To win, the voters most likely to support your party have to cast ballots. You also have to hope that potential voters of your opponent stay home.

The Republicans have traditionally had more support from older voters and it is a general rule that older age demographics are more likely to vote than younger ages.

Will older voters continue to turnout and will they favor Republicans?

Younger voters have usually voted in large numbers in Presidential years but have been less likely to vote in the midterms.

Turnout among young voters surged in 2018 and 2020 but still significantly lags the percentage of older voters.

In 2020, 75% of those age 65+ voted. Barely 50% of those age 18-24.

Source: https://about.bgov.com/brief/election-demographics-and-voter-turnout/

In the 2018 midterms, 66% of age 65+ voted. Less than a one-third of age 18-24 voted. In 2014, only 17% of this age demographic voted.

Source: https://about.bgov.com/brief/election-demographics-and-voter-turnout/

Democrats need young voters to continue to turn out and support their candidates.

Will they continue to close the voting gap with older voters as they did the last two elections?

This article from Politico suggests that they are not turning out thus far in the early voting efforts.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/28/young-voters-dem-early-00063929

Democrats also absolutely need to retain the support of Blacks and Hispanics in addition to young voters.

However, there is no group that Biden has seen his approval erode more than with Hispanics.

I cited this Quinnipiac poll several months ago that shows how far underwater Biden was with both young voters and Hispanics. Biden's overall approval rating is a better now than it was in June but this is a big hole to climb out of.

Source: https://nypost.com/2022/06/09/biden-approval-at-22-among-young-adults-24-among-hispanics-poll/

Will the loss in approval for Biden inure to the benefit of the GOP in the down ballot midterms races?

How RED will it be next week?

I would call it Red Victory if the GOP wins the House by any margin and keeps the Senate at 50-50.

It would become a Red Wave if the Republicans gained 20 seats in the House and took the majority in the Senate.

I would call if a Red Tsunami if we saw 30 seats flip to the Republicans in the House and 3 in the Senate.

It will depend on the answer to all of the questions above.

And it is the American people alone who will answer those questions in less than a week.