What's Next For Canada?

What's next for Canada now that the national elections have left the Liberals in control of the country for another four years?

In many respects Canada is facing much more difficult problems than the United States.

Canada's economy is very dependent on trade with the United States but the threat of tariffs puts the country's future in doubt.

77% of Canada exports go to the United States.

Those exports represent 22% of Canada's total GDP.

In fact, more goods are exported from Canada to the United States each year than any goods that are transferred among the provinces of Canada.

It will be difficult for Canada to win any trade war with the United States considering those numbers.

Housing affordability in Canada is far worse than in the United States.

The median home price in Canada is C$896,000 ($645,000 at the current exchange rate into $USD)

In Toronto it is C$1.2 million and in Vancouver it is C$1.7 million.

The average mortgage payment as a % of income is 62%.

In the United States the median house price has just passed $400,000.

Average incomes in the United States are also about 20% higher than in Canada---$66,622 vs $54,630.

Simply stated, house prices in Canada are 60% higher even though incomes are 20% lower than in the United States.

This is a major problem for Canada especially for younger people who increasingly consider that home ownership is an impossible dream.

A major reason that housing has become so unaffordable in Canada is that immigration has been allowed to skyrocket over the last decade under the Liberal Party.

The argument was that the added population was necessary to allow Canada's economy to grow.

However, if that was the reason, it has failed miserably.

Canada has one of the worst records for economic growth in the world over the last decade.

The immigration does not appear to have helped the economy but it will undeniably change the demographics and culture of Canada for the future.

Almost 30% of the population of Canada today was born outside the country.

In Toronto, that number is 47% and in Vancouver it is 42% according to recent estimates. 

By comparison, the percentage of foreign-born in the United States today is 15% which is the highest that it has ever been in the long history of the country.

As an example of how pervasive immigration has become to the fabric of Canada consider the fact that there are more Sihks in the Canadian legislature than there are in India's.

12 Liberals and 10 Conservatives.

As was the case in the United States election of 2024, there was a major divide in the way urban centers voted compared to the rest of the country.

Liberal Party support was greatest in urban centers where the concentration of immigrants is also highest.

We are also seeing the same trend in Canada that we are seeing in the United States lately.

Younger voters have become more conservative and older voters more liberal.

Voters 54 years of age and younger favored the Conservative Party.

Voters 55+ were the difference in the election for the Liberals.

Credit: https://x.com/RobynUrback/status/1918015772867121525

The biggest challenge Canada faces is the divide between those in Western Canada (with the exception of the Vancouver area) and the population centers in the East.

This is particularly true for the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan..

Due to their stronger fiscal position the Western Provinces, including Alberta and Saskatchewan, do not receive any equalization payments from Ottawa. This indicates that these provinces are effectively subsidizing the Eastern Provinces.

Alberta has already begun taking steps for a referendum on separation from Canada in the wake of this week's election.

I would expect to see a referendum on this issue to pass in Alberta within the next year.

If this occurs I would not be surprised to see Saskatchewan follow suit.

At that point under the constitutional rules and statutes in place the national government of Canada is required to bargain in good faith with regards to the complaints of the provincial residents.

These provinces have plenty to complain about.

Alberta and Saskatchewan have 95% of Canada's oil and gas reserves and 75% of its farmland.

However, they are vastly underrepresented in Canada's legislature.

The Liberal Party and Carney are openly hostile to the oil and gas industry and the any pipeline construction that is necessary to further monetize Alberta's natural resources.

In fact, Carney recently stated that companies who are not committed to "Net Zero" will be punished.

I assume that includes the cattle farmers in Alberta and Saskatchewan as well as the oil and gas producers. We know the the "Net Zero" crowd also would like to eliminate meat.

Link to video: 1917845975273558023

I don't expect Canada to be able to secede and become an independent country or to join the United States as the Canadian constitution requires all the other provinces to agree to separation. 

The other provinces are deriving too much economic benefit from Alberta and Saskatchewan to let them separate in the near future.

However, I do foresee a period of turmoil and tumult for Canada as result of the policies that the Liberals will undoubtedly continue to pursue.

Considering the deep political and social divisions that have developed in Canada it is not far-fetched that we might see Canada implode or split apart in the longer term.

What's next for Canada makes me even more grateful to be living in the United States of American right now.

Student Loan Scam

No student loan debt in default has been referred for collection since March, 2020.

This policy will end on May 5 when those in default on their student loan debt will be subject to collection efforts including garnishment of their wages among other remedies.

There are currently 5.3 million student loans in default.

Almost 500,000 of the student loans in default relate to those 62+ years of age or older. Federal law allows Social Security benefits to be offset to pay the loans of those in default.

In 2019, 192,000 Social Security beneficiaries were having their benefits reduced to pay student loans in default. By contrast, only 6,200 were in this position in 2001.

Another 4 million student loans are delinquent on their loan payments and are close to default status as they have not made a payment in over nine months.

This compares to a total of 43 million total borrowers who owe $1.8 trillion in total student loan debt.

Source: https://educationdata.org/student-loan-debt-statistics

Only 38% of student borrowers are currently up to date on repaying their loans.

92% of this student loan debt is owed to the federal government which became the primary source of student loans during the Obama administration.

A often forgotten fact is that student loans were taken over by the federal government under Obama in 2010 in part to help pay for Obamacare.

Most student loans were nationalized in 2010 in the Obama-Biden administration in legislation  titled "The Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010".

As the chart above shows, student loan debt has increased by almost $1 trillion since that time.

The rationale of nationalizing the loans was that the federal government could earn interest on the student loans and the receipt of interest on those loans (instead of going to private banks) could instead be used to expand student aid and fund deficits caused by healthcare reform.

In fact, Barack Obama claimed that nationalizing the student loan program would save the taxpayers $68 billion over the next decade while also making it easier for graduates to afford their loan repayments.

Click here if the video does not play in your browser.

It does not seem to have worked out the way that Barack Obama and the Democrats said it would.

As more and more of those with student loan debt have struggled over the last decade the Democrats have been calling for student loans to be canceled or forgiven.

I guess they have forgotten that student borrowers were going to be much better off as well as the American taxpayers. because of those reforms.

In that same bill, most student loan repayments went from a fixed repayment schedule (such as your mortgage or car loan) to an income-based repayment program where payments would not exceed 10%-15% of the borrower's discretionary household income---generally defined as the amount exceeding 150% of the federal poverty guideline (this would be about $23,000 for a single individual and about $31,000 for a two person household).

This has resulted in many borrowers not being anywhere close to making the necessary payments in order to pay off the loan.

The student loan problem got even worse when a moratorium was put in place that did not require any payments to be made or interest accruing on the loans between March, 2020 and September, 2023.

Although payments were not REQUIRED there was no prohibition to continuing to make payments during this period. In fact, this was an excellent time to be paying down these loans due to the pause in interest accrual.

It was also a period of time that many student loan borrowers enjoyed financial windfalls due to Covid relief payments.

However. few borrowers appear to have taken advantage of this opportunity in which large amounts of the principal amounts of the loans could have been paid off since no interest was accruing.

My guess is that a substantial number of borrowers did not pay on their loans at this time as they were relying on the statements of Joe Biden and other Democrats that they would have their student loans canceled or forgiven.

After all, why pay on a loan if someone is telling you it is going to be canceled?

The news that student loans in default will now face involuntary collection has social media abuzz with one student borrower after another complaining it is all so UNFAIR.

Those who take to social media to complain about their student loans debt seem to blame everyone for their debt but themselves.

There is a lot of VICTIM MENTALITY  that is apparent in their responses to realizing the student debt has to be paid.

Here are a few of the arguments I have seen student borrowers make as to why it is unfair they should have to pay their student loan debt on social media.

Their parents made them go to college.

The fact that they were young and did not understand they would have to pay the debt.

The fact they have to pay interest on the debt.

The fact that interest rates have gone up.

Paying interest on the loan ought to be enough. Why do they have to pay the principal as well?

How it is unfair that many Trump voters did not go to college and do not have to pay student debt while they do.

Boomers should have their Social Security and retirement income garnished for forcing college on them.

They never had intention of paying the debt to begin with and now that it is going to be collected they might have to leave the country.

The sad reality is that much of the blame should be on the student loan program itself and the politicians  who promoted it over the years.

Like many progressive political programs it was well intentioned.

However, what often happens is that when government gets involved it only makes the problem worse.

Student loans were supposed to make college more accessible and affordable for those who did not have the resources to consider higher education.

Instead, it made college less affordable and made student loans a necessity even for those who previously might have been able to avoid going into debt for college.

College costs have vastly outpaced the consumer price index since student loans became prevalent.

Quite simply, without the infusion of billions of federal dollars, there is simply no way colleges could have increased tuition the way they have.

A program that was designed to assist students to afford college seems to be making it more unaffordable with each passing year. That is what occurs over and over when a well-intentioned "liberal" idea meets the real world.  A desire to do good by government ends up being the undoing of the very people it was intended to help. 

The return on investment on education has been declining for years.

However, despite this fact, more and more money is being borrowed to pay for higher education. It is simply not supported by the underlying fundamentals.

How have we allowed the cost of higher education to increase at multiples of the return on that investment in education?

If normal market forces were in play, this would not be allowed to continue.

The same is not true with a government program.

I understand the frustration and anger of those who took out student loans only to find out that they ended up with a far different result than they thought they were going to get.

However, they appear to not be able to understand who is truly at fault.

Whether they want to admit it or not, the blame starts with them.

Add to it the the politicians who designed the program.

And the colleges, universities and trade schools who were only to happy to assist in the student loan scam.

What can be done short of canceling the debts which I do not see as practical?

If you cancel current debts how do you then not have to make college free for everyone? How can you give current debt holders a free ride but make future college students pay?

One common sense idea might be to change the law so that the bankruptcy laws would permit someone who is really buried with debt to be able to have the student debt discharged as with other debts.

Perhaps some type of tax should be levied on those college endowment funds to put into a general fund to pay for any defaults or cancellation of student loan debts.

It might also make sense to require the educational institution that benefited from those student loans to be required to pay some or all of any debt default by its students. This might help insure that the schools have skin in the game and the best long-term interests of the student in getting a return on the tuition dollars they pay with that student debt. 

Right now the interest of the college is solely focused on the tuition dollars received today with little regard to whether that debt can be serviced later by its students in the job market.

As it stands now, the student loan program scams too many.

If any good is to come from what we see has come of the student loan program it should be to consider this as yet another example where the most well-intentioned government plans results in unintended consequences. 

However, the answer should never have been to spend more taxpayer money to cancel the debt.

We see it over and over and over again. Ronald Reagan said it well and we should remember it.

"Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them".

Truer words have never be said.

This and That---April 28, 2025 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Trump Has Turned Politics Upside Down

President Trump's approval rating has been dropping over the last month based on the chaos surrounding his tariff policy and the incessant negative news coverage surrounding deporting illegal aliens such as Kilmar Obrego Garcia.

What I find interesting is that when you break down the numbers by age groups Trump has positive approvals with every group but those age 70+. according to the RealClearPolitics.com poll average.

The age 70+ age group disapproves of Trump's job approval by -14 points.

Credit: https://x.com/LokiJulianus/status/1914801223175201194

This is incredible to someone like me that has followed politics for a long time.

Younger voters have traditionally been the most liberal and older voters the most conservative.

Trump is +9 with Millennials who have previously disdained all things conservative for their entire life.

Trump has literally turned politics upside down.

Why are those age 70+ of this mind?

The best theory I have seen is these are the people who still get most of their news and information from mainstream sources.

The others are finding a much more balanced view of information on the internet and social media.

I guess the older folks seem to believe the narrative that Trump is going to cut their Social Security and Medicare.

Oh Canada!

It appears that Donald Trump has also turned politics upside down in Canada.

Canada's national elections are being held today.

In early January Justin Trudeau was forced to resign as head of the Liberal Party and as Prime Minister of Canada due to massive unpopularity.

Trudeau was replaced by Mark Carney.

At the time that Trudeau stepped the Liberals were given less than a 10% chance to win the election and the betting odds suggested that Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre had a better than 90% chance to be the next Prime Minister.

Carney is now the heavy betting favorite.

Source: https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada?tid=1745424446777

I don't know that I have ever seen an election turned upside down more dramatically in such a short period of time than what we have seen in Canada.

Does this have anything much to do with any dramatic changes in the policies of Carney or Poilievre ?

No.

It is almost totally a reaction to Donald Trump's comments about wanting to make Canada the 51st state and a surge of nationalism and anti-Trump sentiments north of the border.

Carney appears to be leading in recent polls based on the fact that more voters believe he will best stand up to Trump. Carney is favored on this question by 43%-37% by voters.

Of course, Trudeau brought all of this on by telling Trump that Canada could not continue to exist if Canada had to pay tariffs on the over $600 billion of goods it exports to the United States. 22% of Canada's GDP is tied to those exports.

It will be interesting to see what happens today and with U.S./Canada relations going forward.

However, Trump may actually want the Liberals to win as it may accelerate further weakening of Canada due to its progressive and woke policies of the Liberal Party which may drive the more conservative and resource rich Western provinces closer to the U.S. 

What Are The Odds?

Another data point that caught my eye recently is this report from Bloomberg that 12% of all jobs in New York City are for people who are caring for a relative and being paid by the Medicaid program.

In 2014 there were only 20,000 people being paid to stay at home and care for a relative.

The next year the Obama administration relaxed the eligibility rules and the next year 250,000 were being paid by Medicaid.

That number is now 620,000---12% of all jobs in New York City.

This factoid actually might be more shocking than the shift in the voting odds in Canada.

What are the odds that a substantial number of these jobs are fraudulent in some way?

And yet the Democrats are taking Elon Musk, DOGE and President Trump to task for anything that might reduce Medicaid spending?

The fact is that by getting rid of obvious fraud there will be more money for those truly deserving.

Don't Put Your Fist Through A Wall

When you see figures that show 12% of NYC's jobs are being paid for by Medicaid to care for a relative it might be natural to want to put your fist through a wall if you are a taxpayer.

The chart below shows what a bad idea that is as it shows the number of annual hospital visits for punching a wall broken down by age.

Credit: https://x.com/m3pols/status/1912908124929081576

It seems that teenagers are the most likely to try to put their fist through a wall.

This statistic shows pretty clearly that the prefrontal cortex of the brain is the last part of the brain to develop. That is the area of the brain that is responsible for higher-level cognitive functions like planning, decision making and impulse control.

It generally does not fully develop and mature until age 25. 

However, this chart shows that is a general rule.

There was one person at age 69 who thought it was good idea to take out their anger on a wall.

The good news is that despite the disapproval of Trump by those age 70+ it is unlikely that any will take their frustration out on a wall!

Tornado Time

I came closer to death on this date 64 years ago than I have on any other day of my 75 years of life. 

I know something about the dangers and risks of tornadoes having survived a direct hit to my home from a category f4 tornado on that day six decades ago (Wind speeds in excess of 207 mph. Only about 1% of tornados reach this level of devastating damage) 

The memories of that day are as clear to me today as if it was yesterday. I wrote about that experience in these pages 14 years ago which I have inserted below.

It is tornado time this year.

The months of April, May and June usually present the greatest risk of tornado activity in the United States.

Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/patterns

The common narrative we hear today is that climate change is causing an increase in violent storms such as tornadoes and hurricanes. In his 2006 movie, An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore claimed that tornadoes would increase in frequency and intensity due to global warming.

However, the facts do not support that narrative.

Those claims are often accompanied by a chart like this that supposedly shows an increased level of tornado activity over the last 25-30 years.

Source: https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/dataset/monthly-and-annual-numbers-tornadoes-graphs-and-maps

Before you believe that tornado activity is trending up, bear in mind that tornado reporting is much better today than it was 30, 40 or 50 years ago. 

Nothing occurs on the face of our earth today that is not reported and chronicled. It was not always that way. In years past, many smaller tornadoes were never recorded as they meandered harmlessly across a Kansas field.

The advent of Doppler radar in the early 1990's made it possible to document every tornado no matter how small. The fact is that most tornadoes are category f0 or f1 and they comprise 80% of all tornadoes.

A better perspective in comparing tornado activity over the years is to focus on those storms that are rated f3 to f5 on the Fujita scale. These are the tornadoes that cause the most severe damage and would clearly have been captured in previous statistics.  

This data indicates that tornado activity is actually less severe in the United States today than it was previously and has actually been trending downwards in recent years. 

Credit: https://climateataglance.com/climate-at-a-glance-tornadoes/

This graphic shows the path of every recorded Ef2+ tornado track between 1880 and 2019. The areas of the United States with the greatest storm risk are the Central and Southeastern states.

Source: https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/is-tornado-alley-shifting-east/1162839

One change that has occurred with tornadoes in the last 40 years is that the most common area of tornado activity has shifted east from the tornado alley of the past.

Source: Source: https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/is-tornado-alley-shifting-east/1162839

This seems to be due to less moisture in the Plains states which has forced the storm track to the east centered in the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

Note that when I wrote the blog post below in 2011 we were experiencing a spike in tornado activity.

 

Climate alarmists jumped on this at the time but the tornado activity quickly settled down. We have seen nothing like that year since and the downward trend has continued.

Could it be that man has nothing to do with the weather or climate?

Am I crazy in believing that it is in God's hands?

I needed to believe that 64 years ago today. 

A Tornado Tale

(Originally published April 25, 2011)

50 years ago today I came close to death. I was in a house that took a direct hit from an f4 Tornado (winds of 207-260 mph) in Eaton, Ohio. It was shortly before 4:00pm on a late April afternoon and I was in my bedroom organizing baseball cards after school with my best friend. 

My mother was visiting a neighbor with my younger brother.  I looked out the back window and looming straight ahead about a half mile away was a tornado dancing back and forth right in front of my eyes.  It appeared to be on a direct path to our home.

I remember seeing details that you normally don't pick up in photographs.  I clearly could see lumber, shingles and other debris swirling around near the top of the twister.  We made a quick call to my friend's home to warn them of the approaching tornado and headed for the basement.  We bounded down the stairs. 

We heard the sound of a car's horn racing down the main road that was parallel to the tornado's path.  We later learned it was the family who operated the farm behind us who had decided to run for it rather than go to their basement.

A few seconds later the tornado hit. It was a deafening roar.  It was as if you were standing right by the railroad tracks and a train was going by at enormous speed. I covered my ears with my hands because of the roar.  I remember my friend and I shouting at each other at the top of our lungs but you could not hear a word over the sound.  Suddenly it got even louder and it sounded as if the entire house was caving in. 

I remember looking up at the floor and joists above me and thinking that this was it.  I fully expected to be buried alive. Time did slow down.  I remember thinking I had just turned 11 years old and this was the end of the road for me.  It then became deathly quiet.  The floor had held and my friend and I checked each other to be sure we were all right.

We cautiously started up the basement stairs.  The door would not open but we both put our shoulder to it and pushed hard. We got it about half way open and slithered out the basement door.  Staring at us through the adjoining door to the garage was a steel beam that had been thrown around like a tooth pick. It had penetrated almost a foot through the door into the house.  

The windows on the back side of the house that faced the tornado were all broken.  The draperies hung in tatters and were now blowing in the wind.  The windows on the front of the house were intact but were caked with dirt and grass that looked like it had been sprayed on. The dirt was so thick you could not see through the windows at all.  All through the house lay debris. Drywall from the ceiling was laying all over. You could look up and see the sky through the open roof.

I tried to make my way back to my bedroom but I couldn't navigate the debris that littered the hallway.  My friend and I went out the front door and we could see the tornado continuing on its way to more destruction down the road.  The tornado looked much better from the backside.

I did not have shoes on but I began running toward the house where my mother was.  It had been spared but for some minor damage.  It was a debris field of 2x4's, downed electric wires and protruding nails to get to her. I saw some hay straw blown straight into some siding as if it was a nail. 

I reached my mother and looked back at our house for the first time.  I almost could not believe the sight.  It looked as if our house had been bombed.  I had a hard time choking back tears as I saw our house.  I kept saying to my mother, "Look at our house".  She just kept repeating, "It is ok.  You are alive". Even after 50 years, you do not forget a day like that.

Photographs and other background on the tornado of April 25, 1961.

Photo taken of the tornado by a local photographer at close to the time it destroyed our house.

Photo of what was left of the Turner farmhouse that was directly behind our house.  Witnesses said that when the tornado hit the 2-story frame house it lifted it straight up and the house exploded. The entire remains of the house was deposited in the basement as debris.  Fortunately, the Turner family did not go to the basement for shelter.  Mr. and Mrs. Turner started for the basement but their 20-year son did not feel the house could withstand the tornado.  They jumped in their car and made a run for it.  That decision undoubtedly saved their lives. It was their car horn I heard in the basement right before the tornado struck.

Our house was totally constructed out of stone.  I was in the basement on the left side of the house as you look at this picture.  The people on top of debris to the left are where the garage and a back porch used to be both of which were on a slab.  It was the sound of the collapse of this part of the house that had me thinking the entire house was coming down on me. You can also see that the entire roof on the side of the basement that I was in was destroyed.

The house as it looked shortly after construction in 1957 (4 years before the tornado). I was in the bedroom looking out the window on the far right side of the house when I first saw the tornado approaching.

The house from the right front showing the collapsed garage.  I was in the basement near this corner of the house when the tornado struck.

My friend and I ended up with our picture in the newspaper. (top left)

The couple who owned the farm behind us stand in front of what was left of their house. (bottom right)

Through April 24, 2011 according to the National Weather Service, there have been 438 confirmed tornadoes in the United States. Only one has been an f4 similar to the Eaton tornado of 1961.  

We have already seen 306 tornadoes in April, 2011. This is the highest April total ever.  The previous record was 267 in 1974. The average number of April tornadoes is 163.  Keep your eyes on the sky and take shelter immediately if one of these terrible twisters heads your way.

Heroes?

 This is how Dictionary.com defines the word "hero".

The people who typically are admired as heroes are the soldiers who storm the beach, the firefighter who braves the blaze to save a child trapped by the flames or the good samaritan who stops what they are doing to help an accident victim.

They put a higher purpose above themselves. They model how the rest of us should live life the right way.

You also have those people who are looked up to as heroes because of the courage and grace they have displayed in overcoming significant personal tragedies or challenges.

President Trump honored some of these heroes at the speech he gave to a Joint Session of Congress last month.

They included a 13-year old boy who had survived brain cancer and dreamed of becoming a Secret Service agent, the wife of  a New York police officer who had been murdered in the line of duty and the mother of a young woman who had been killed by an illegal immigrant.

Most Democrats in the chamber that night would not rise to honor these heroes or even provide lukewarm applause.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/california-dem-says-flight-attendant-told-him-party-looked-heartless-not-standing-boy-cancer

However, Democrats recently have shown a proclivity to make heroes out of those which should register close to ZERO on the hero meter.

Think back to the way the Democrats lionized George Floyd in 2020.

Yes, the death of Floyd was a tragedy.

However, what did Floyd do to merit hero status?

Floyd had been arrested at least 10 times for various crimes during his life including drug-related charges, theft and aggravated robbery with a deadly weapon for which he received a 5-year prison sentence.

His autopsy showed he had fentanyl, methamphetamine and cannabis in his system at the time of his arrest for allegedly attempting to pass a counterfeit $20 bill to a local merchant.

George Floyd should not have died in police custody.

However, what did he do to be a hero other than to advance a liberal political narrative that the police should be defunded?

We see the same things playing out in the news today in which Democrats are trying to elevate people to hero status who are anything but.

Consider the amount of Democrat and media attention to the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the illegal immigrant who had lived in Maryland for 13 years, who was deported by ICE and is now jailed in his home country of El Salvador.

The Democrats have made Abrego Garcia a cause celebre after a leftist judge ordered he be returned to the United States.

However, that decision apparently is now up to El Salvador since he is a citizen of that country. 

For context, ask yourself if a U.S. citizen had defected to Russia and after ten years Russia decided he was a bad actor and deported him back to the United States, would the United States believe it had a duty to return him to Russia? 

Senator Chris Van Hollen went to El Salvador to attempt to get Abrego Garcia returned to the United States.

Congresswoman Maxine Decker (D-OR) has also traveled to El Salvador and stated she will not leave until Abrego Garcia returns to the United States.

Who is this hero?

Abrego Garcia entered the United States illegally in 2012.

Two courts later entered a finding that he was a member of the notorious MS-13 gang.

A court ruled he should be deported years ago. Abrego Garcia has already had many days in court.

Removal was put on hold as Abrego Garcia claimed that he would be targeted in El Salvador by a rival gang (the 18th Street Gang). That gang has subsequently been disbanded due to the get tough policies of the current President of El Salvador Nayib Bukele.

Abrego Garcia was stopped in Tennessee in 2022 for speeding where it was discovered he was transporting eight individuals from Texas to Maryland that had all the earmarks of a human trafficking operation.

In 2021 Abrego Garcia's wife filed for a protective order against him after he hit her at least two times in the previous several months.

It is disputed whether Abrego Garcia should have been deported to El Salvador due to his claims about possible persecution of a rival gang.

However, there is no dispute that he is in the United Stated unlawfully. This has already been adjudicated in a court of law which ruled that he can be removed.

If not El Salvador would he be better served by being deported to Somalia, South Sudan or Sweden if they would take him?

Is this a hero or is it just another case of using a man as a political prop?

Maxine Dexter makes an excellent case that it is the latter.

She is going to ignore all the other needs of representing her constituents over an illegal alien gang member who beat his wife?

We also have the recent case of Karmelo Anthony, an African American teenager who killed an 18 year white high school, after a dispute about seating arrangements at a school track meet.

Anthony did not like being asked to change seats and in response pulled out a knife and stabbed Austin Metcalf to death.

Anthony has subsequently  raised over $500,000 on the fundraising site GiveSendGo.

His victim has raised a mere $25 in donations to assist in the costs of his burial.

Is there something off here?

Source: https://www.givesendgo.com/search/karmelo

Anthony was released by a liberal judge who only required he post a $250,000 bond and is under house arrest wearing an ankle monitor.

It seems his family wants to make sure he is comfortable as they have just started renting a $900,000 house and are now reportedly driving a new Cadillac Escalade since the $500,000 came in.

Senator Ted Cruz asks the obvious question.

Is Karmelo Anthony a hero?

What would the reaction have been in this case if Austin Metcalf had pulled out a knife and stabbed Karmelo Anthony?

Would he be considered a hero?

How much would have been contributed to his "defense" fund?

Why do Democrats persist in making heroes out of people who register next to zero on any rational scale of hero status?

It is beyond my comprehension.

Is there anything that Democrats do today that is not totally dictated by politics to the exclusion of rational thinking, common sense and basic values?

Looking at who they promote as heroes should be enough to answer that question. 

It Depends On Who You Ask

At the end of April Donald Trump will have completed 100 days of his second term in office.

How is he doing?

It depends on who you ask.

I was struck by the wide variation in President Trump's approval rating in several polls released this week.

Trump's net approval varies from +8 in the Daily Mail polling to -12 with Quinnipiac.

Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

It does really depend on who you ask and apparently who is doing the asking.

For perspective, the Daily Mail polling shows Trump with the highest net approval he has ever had.

Bear in mind that this poll was also taken after all of the tariff and stock market chaos.

This poll was also taken after all the media exposure of the illegal immigrant and MS-13 gang member who lived in Maryland that was deported to an El Salvador prison with a federal judge and Democrats arguing the man should be returned to the United States.

The positive approval that Trump has is clearly centered on the level of support that his policies have with the American people.

That is most apparent by looking at the % of voters who support different policies that Trump is advancing.

First, look at the change in the percent of voters who favor deporting all illegal immigrants from 2016 to 2025 as reported by The Washington Post.

Only 36% of voters favored deporting all illegals in 2016. It is now 56%.

While Trump's overall approval is +2 in the Harvard Harris poll but the support for his policies is much higher.

Immigration continues to be Trump's signature issue as seen in the support for total deportation of every illegal in the WP poll above.

Further, in the Harvard Harris poll 74% support in the deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes.

70% support closing the border.

Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2025/HHP_APRIL_Final.pdf

There is also strong support (57%+) approval for finding and eliminating fraud and waste in government spending (DOGE), banning men who have undergone sex change operations from competing in women's sports, declaring there are only two genders, freezing foreign aid and placing reciprocal tariffs on countries that have tariffs on U.S. goods.

In fact, the only issue that Trump has championed on the list that does not have at least 50% support is renaming the Gulf of Mexico.

One thing is sure about Trump's first 100 days.

It has been a period of unprecedented activity.

A recent CNN poll suggests that there are also very few Trump voters who regret their vote based on what he is doing.

Link: https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1912516580748960144

There has been little that Trump campaigned on that he has not acted on.

For example, look at the southwest border.

In March, there were only 11,000 border encounters by U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents.

That is down from around 100,000 per month in the last three months of 2024 and from around 200,000 per month in March, 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Source: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters

Joe Biden and the Democrats stated repeatedly that it was impossible to stop the flow of illegals into the country without Congressional action.

It was a lie.

All it took was a change in leadership and the will to enforce existing laws.

Trump's unprecedented activity has also been met with unprecedented actions by activist left-leaning judges that have ruled time and time again against almost every policy that Trump has instituted.

For example, in the entire history of the United States, federal judges have only issued around 180 nationwide injunctions against the President of the United States.

These were almost unknown until the last several decades. 127 of the 180 were since 1963.

However, 64 universal injunctions were issued against Trump in his first term and 30 so far in his second term.

Think about it. 

About half of all nationwide injunctions ever issued by the courts since 1787 just so happen to have targeted Donald Trump.

However, Joe Biden openly defied a Supreme Court ruling that the President did not have the authority to cancel student loan debt and bragged about it.

Were any injunctions issued against any of Biden's student loan debt cancellations?

Link: https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1777404435544649895

In addition, were there any nationwide injunction issued as Joe Biden subverted the laws of the United States and flew hundreds of thousand of unvetted migrants directly into the country?

More than 500,000 otherwise inadmissible migrants were flown into the United States and given parole to stay for up to two years from Cuba, Nicaragua, Haiti and Venezuela by the Biden administration without any evidentiary hearing or fact-finding about their eligibility.

However, one federal judge blocks Trump from deporting the same migrants back to their home countries?

The guy frames it all rather well on X.

One unelected judge can subvert the executive authority of a duly elected President who had the support of over 77 million voters?

This is what our system of justice has become?

How is Trump doing in his first 100 days?

It really does depend on who ask, doesn't it?

Taxes, Taxes, Taxes

Taxes are always a popular point for discussion.

That is especially true on the day after the federal income tax filing deadline.

It is also a major discussion topic in Washington, D.C. right now as President Trump and the Republicans in Congress work towards making the Trump tax cuts of his first term permanent.

Those tax cuts, which too effect in 2018, are scheduled to expire on December 31, 2025.

This includes individual income tax rate reductions, the doubled standard deduction, the increased child tax credit, the pass-through business deduction, and the estate tax exemption which was increased.

The Trump tax cuts also reduced the corporate income tax from 35% to 21% among other changes.

The Democrats opposed the Trump tax cuts when they were passed in 2017 arguing they would reduce necessary tax revenues and also be a windfall for the rich.

How has this worked out?

Individual income tax collections were $1.867 trillion in 2017, the year before the tax changes took effect. 

In 2023 (the most recent year that the IRS has published data), individual income tax collections were $2.561 trillion after reaching $2.903 trillion in 2022.

Business taxes increased from $339 billion in 2017 to $457 billion in 2023.

In other words, despite the reduction in tax rates, individual tax collections increased 37% and business taxes increased 35% in the first six years of the Trump tax cuts.

Individual tax collections were actually up 56% in the five years ending in 2022. 

This chart from the IRS website provides an overview.

Source: https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-irs-data-book

Here are the actual numbers behind that chart.

Source: Source: https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-irs-data-book

Note that overall tax collections were relatively stagnant for a number of years from 2014 up to and including the Covid shutdown year of 2020.

There is also usually a lag effect with any tax policy changes.

It takes some time for individuals and businesses to adapt and adjust their behaviors to the new tax regime.

Therefore, it is likely that the Trump tax changes contributed materially to the upturn in revenues in recent years combined with the low interest rates and accommodative fiscal policy and money printing during the post-Covid Biden years.

What about the share the rich pay in income taxes?

Has it gone down as a result of the Trump tax cuts as Democrats suggested it would ?

In 2017, the top 1% carried 38% of the individual income tax burden and the the top 10% paid 70%.

Source: https://www.ntu.org/foundation/detail/who-pays-income-taxes-2017

In 2022, (the most recent year for this data) the top 1% paid 40.4% of all income taxes and the top 10% had increased to 72% of the total.

The bottom 50%, those with incomes below $50,000, pay just 3% of the total tax burden.

Source: https://www.ntu.org/foundation/detail/who-pays-income-taxes-tax-year-2022

It is true that the adjusted gross income share of the rich increased slightly between 2017 and 2022 (most likely due to stock market gains) but the ratio of the percentage of personal income tax paid to AGI share was essentially unchanged.

These charts also show just how progressive the United States income tax system is and has continued to be even after the Trump tax cuts.

Those with more income pay a substantially greater share of their income in taxes than those with less income.

The top 1% pay a share of taxes that is 1.8x their share of income.

Conversely, the bottom 50% pay just .3x of their share of income.

The share of taxes that the bottom 50% pay as a percent of income is also substantially lower compared to the left-leaning European countries that the Democrats want the United States to emulate.

The average worker in Europe pays almost $12,000 more in taxes than they would in the United States.

Source: https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/bigger-government-means-giving-almost-half-paycheck#european-middle-class-pays-high-taxes

 

It is true that the extra taxes in Europe do fund more government provided social benefits.

However, when you consider the redistributive effects of lower taxes in the United States the bottom 50% in the United States is doing considerably better than their European counterparts.

This chart shows the total new transfers received by the bottom 50% by country by adding the benefit of lower taxes on the bottom 50% to government benefits.

The United States is actually redistributing more to the bottom 50% than any European country. 

Source: https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/bigger-government-means-giving-almost-half-paycheck#european-middle-class-pays-high-taxes

Keep these statistics in mind as you hear Democrats or media pundits argue that the rich do not pay their "fair" share of taxes or that somehow making the Trump tax cuts permanent is going to be a tax giveaway to the rich.

In fact, I would not be surprised that in the final negotiations on the extension of the Trump tax cuts that a higher tax rate is not imposed on $1+ million income earners.

Democrats have long argued that the "rich" should pay more.

I can easily see Trump co-opting another Democrat issue as he has done time and time again in the past and agreeing to some type of tax increase on the "rich" (which would include Trump himself) as part of a final deal.

Are the Democrats going to vote against a tax increase on the rich after complaining about it for so long?

It is called "The Art of the Deal" for a reason.