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Monday, July 27, 2026

This and That---July 27, 2026 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Out of Work?

I have cited polls recently that suggest that many voters have a negative view of the health of the economy.

One example is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index that is currently at the lowest it has been since the survey began in the early 1960's.

Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsh.pdf

U of M's Current Economic Conditions Index tells a similar story.


Source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicch.pdf

Let's put these "sentiment" surveys in context.

Those are lower scores than during any recession in the last 60 years.

Lower than the 1979-1981 period when we had double digit inflation for three consecutive years.

Lower than the early 1980's when mortgage rates hit 18%.

Lower than the period between late 1982 and early 1983 when the employment rate was more than 10%.

Lower than when the entire economy was shut down with Covid.

Lower than in 2022 when inflation was running at over 8% per year.

I wrote about these surveys and contrasted these "feelings" with real "facts" about the economy in a blog post in May titled "Consumer or Political Sentiment".

I wrote this in the conclusion to that blog post.

What have we become if sentiments and feelings override real facts?

What chance do we have if people ignore the reality that surrounds them but are willing to be manipulated by news headlines and social media?

Why can't we return to a point where we assess facts and make decisions based on the real world rather than our biased political leanings?

When political sentiments control anything and everything in a society you are on a slippery slope to a slow death.

Here is another data point that I came across last week that runs counter to the narrative expressed in that survey data.

Initial jobless claims (' Layoffs") just hit the lowest level relative to the workforce in 57 years.

Only 1 in 1,000 workers filed for unemployment last month.

Credit: https://x.com/StephenMoore/status/2080734810847244526

This is even more astounding considering everything we hear about the threat to jobs due to technology, innovation and AI.

The day may come when AI is impacting the workforce but right now the data shows that fewer workers should be worried about being laid off and out of work than anytime in the last half century.


Unemployment Rates

The national unemployment rate for June, 2026 was 4.2%

That is a very low rate based on historical standards.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

It has been trending down for the last 6-7 months.

However, the unemployment rate varies by state.

Credit: https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/2081002677551464710

What do the states with 5.0% or higher unemployment have in common?

They all have Democrat governors.  Most also have legislatures completely controlled by Democrats.

Is that just a coincidence?

MidTerms

I am often asked what I think will happen with the approaching midterm elections.

My answer is I have no idea,

I do know the fact that the midterm election cycle has historically resulted in the President's party losing on average 26 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate since World War II.

This would be a disastrous result for Trump and the Republicans.

Some argue that bis swings in Congressional races are not as likely in this day and age due to the way the partisan manner in which districts are now drawn.

There are very few "swing" seats anymore. They either tilt heavily red or blue.

As always, a lot will depend on the vote of Independents and voter turnout in November.

Independent voters will most likely be heavily influenced in what happens in Iran and gas prices.

If the United States remains bogged down in Iran and gas prices are high these voters will likely let the Republicans know it in the midterm election.

On the other hand, if Trump is able to open the Strait of Hormuz, bring regime change in Iran and show the Mideast is on a path to a peace we have not seen in our lifetimes it could bring a surge of support for Republicans.

One thing is for sure.

Democrats intensely disapprove of Trump.

On the other hand, Republicans are backing Trump like no other President in recent memory.



Joe Biden was also in the same approval range with his own party as Bush and Obama.

A President is not in real trouble until he starts losing the approval of his own party.

Republicans continue to solidly back Trump. That is the big reason his endorsement of candidates is so powerful.

In the end, as always, turnout will be very important in determining the midterm elections.

Who shows up to vote will determine the midterms more than anythng else.


This Is What I Voted For

The two charts below explain very well why Trump has a high approval rating with Republicans.

A common response from most in seeing this would be, "This is what I voted for".

The first shows illegal border crossings.

Recall that Democrats said that this was not possible without a massive new immigration law.

It was a lie.



The second shows the decrease in the number of those on food stamps in Illinois since the new work requirements were put into law in Trump's Big Beautiful Bill last year.

My guess is that a secondary reason is that there are also fewer illegal immigrants collecting SNAP benefits as well since deportations began under Trump.

Credit: https://x.com/illinoispolicy/status/2080097564066746503

Trump's greatest strength as a politician is that he does what he says he is going to do.

This causes Trump Derangement Syndrome in Democrats who are used to someone saying one thing and doing another.

It engenders loyalty in Republicans.

Trump's problem with Independents is that they did not vote for a war with Iran and higher gas prices.


Monday, June 29, 2026

A Time For Choosing

It used to be that so-called Democrat Socialists were considered on the fringe of American politics.

That is because their policies are almost indistinguishable from Communists.

They are savvy enough to avoid that name.

The Democrat Socialists are also generally smart enough to not run for political office with that label on the ballot. 

The Democrat Socialists of America are not an official political party.

However, they have an agenda and a platform.

It is contained in this document.




They are currently working to gradually takeover the Democrat party.

Source: https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/dsa-democrats-us-politics-k8z2tdz78

Why go to the time and expense to grow your own political party when you can do a takeover?

Although Bernie Sanders is not officially a member of the Democrat Socialist party he has consistently referred to himself as a Democrat Socialist.

Sanders has always run for his Senate seat in Vermont as an Independent although he caucuses with Democrats in Washington.

However, more and more members of the Democrat Socialists of America are running for political office as Democrats and winning.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D--NY) is a DSA member.

Rashida Tlaid (D-MI), the U.S Representative from Michigan is also a DSA member.

The Mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, is also a Democrat Socialist as is the Mayor of Seattle, Katie Wilson, and in Washington, D.C., Democrat Socialist Janeese Lewis George just won the Democrat nomination to be the next mayor of that city.

The big news last week was that three Mamdani endorsed candidates who espouse DSA views won the Democrat nominations for Congressional seats in New York City. Two of those who were defeated were Democrat incumbents.

The Democrat Socialists are clearly working to takeover the Democrat party and remake it in their image.

What are some of the major platform items in the Democrat Socialist of America 2025-2026 program?

It starts with promises of lots of FREE stuff.

FREE Medicare for All with no premiums, deductibles or co-pays.

FREE college tuition and room and board at all public schools.

CANCEL all student loan debt.

FREE public universal child care and pre-K.

FREE expensive paid family leave.

UNIVERSAL rent control housing.

ZERO cash bail.

For an added bonus, demilitarize ( I guess defund did not poll well)  the police and decriminalize all drug offenses.




How is all of this going to be paid for?

All you have to do is tax the rich according to the Democrat Socialists.

In the meantime, everyone also gets to work a 32-hour work week with no reduction in pay or benefits.

Make unions stronger and also spend trillions on a Green New Deal while having the government take over major transportation, energy infrastructure and natural resources companies.



I am sure it will all work out great.

The most important foreign policy issue for the Democrat Socialists is freeing Palestine and reducing the United States military budget.

A core belief for the DSA is very much an anti-Israel and anti-Zionist agenda.

The DSA also wants a free and open border and to provide amnesty to all illegal immigrants.

Of course, we also have to provide everything FREE to all immigrants who end up here as well in addition to providing them access to jobs and labor rights.



 

Finally, they want to rework the political and governmental framework in the United States.

Abolish the electoral college.

Extend full voting rights to non-citizens and convicted felons.

Replace the two-party system and expand the seats in the House of Representatives and have proportional representation elections.

Reform the Supreme Court.




Put everything together and it is a very long list.

In summary, the Democrat Socialists want to fundamentally alter and change almost everything about the United States of America.

In so doing, it would almost certainly destroy what has been the most prosperous and successful nation in  the history of the world.

The problem is that when a politician comes along and says that they are going to make everything FREE it is not easy for everyone to see that the math does not work and where it all leads.

You simply cannot provide a bunch of free stuff, cut everyone's work hours, provide jobs and free stuff to millions and millions of immigrants and expect it is all going to be paid by a few rich people.

People in many countries have fallen for that "FREE" line and not one has ended up better off.

And they were not promising to let everyone else in the world into their country to also get free stuff.

In the aftermath of the elections in New York, President Trump warned the Democrat party that they had better be prepared to fight off the takeover or they would be doomed and the country would be facing one of its greatest risks in its 250 year history.


Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5943014-trump-democratic-socialist-candidates-primaries-nyc/

President Trump warned that the democratic socialist candidate victories in Tuesday’s New York primaries go beyond the left-leaning state. 

“The Democrat Party is in big trouble because this isn’t stopping with New York,” Trump said Friday, speaking at the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s annual policy conference in Washington.

It’s too easy to get elected, giving everything away,” he continued. “It’s easy for them to get followers because they make promises they know they can’t keep.”  

Trump went on to say the Democratic Party’s establishment is not fighting back because “they’re afraid to fight.” 


The Democrat establishment is afraid to speak out against the insurgents because they fear they will be the next target for the Democrat Socialists.

The Democrat Socialists left no doubt about that after the election in New York City by booing House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and changing "You're Next".

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KVJMJp9b5c

However, history has shown that appeasement does not work when core values and principles are so misaligned.

Ronald Reagan said it well.

Source: https://www.reaganfoundation.org/ronald-reagan/quotes/freedom-is-never-more-than-one-generation-away-from

Are the Democrats prepared to fight the takeover of their party?

Are the rest of us prepared to fight for the soul and sanctity of the United States of America?

The choices could not be more profound and consequential.

As Ronald Reagan also said in his famous "A Time For Choosing" speech in 1964.




It was true in 1964.

It is even truer today.

Friday, March 27, 2026

No Hope For Homelessness?

Over the last several years it seems that there has been more and more attention paid in our major cities to the homeless problem.

There were an estimated 770,000 homeless people in the United States in 2024.

The number of homeless people rose significantly since the 2021-2022 period.

Source: https://www.consumershield.com/


Is it just a coincidence that the number of homeless increased at the same time that Joe Biden and the Democrats opened the borders and allowed millions of immigrants to enter the country?

Take a look at how net international migration into the United States surged in the Biden years.

Source: https://cis.org/Report/ForeignBorn-Number-and-Share-US-Population-AllTime-Highs-January-2025

A principal factor in homelessness is related to housing affordability.

The massive increase in housing costs and apartment rents that followed the mass influx of millions of people in such a short period of time undoubtedly fueled the homelessness situation.

It is also not a coincidence that California and New York are the two states that have the largest homelessness problem.

Source: Source: https://www.consumershield.com/


Both California and New York have adopted statewide sanctuary policies for illegal immigrants as well as having some of the highest housing costs in the nation.

What is most shocking is the amount of money that is being spent on homelessness by some major sanctuary cities.

San Francisco is spending $102,000 annually on each homeless person in the city.

Portland $95,000.

New York City $82,000.

Los Angeles $62,000.




For context, the average American makes $67,000 per year.

However, that person has to pay for their housing and also the taxes that are supporting these homeless programs.

How is it that cities like New York City, San Francisco and Portland are paying much more for their typical homeless person than their average tax paying workers are earning each year?

It makes absolutely no sense.

Just as shocking is the increase in per capita spending on homelessness since 2019.

How is it possible to spend this much money and the problem has gotten worse?

Consider what has gone on in New York City.

Total spending has increased from $102 million in 2019 to $368 million in 2025.

Per capita spending increased from $28,000 to $82,000.

However, the unsheltered homeless population in the city increased by 26%,

 



New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani wants to spend more in 2026 to "solve" the problem. 
City Hall is projecting that nearly $97,000 per homeless person will be spent this year.

What is going on?

The New York Post had the same question and recently published an editorial on the subject.


It’s certain that almost none of the $81,000 actually benefits these street people: Outreach workers get paid to count the “unsheltered” and to try coaxing them into shelter or arranging some kind of housing they’ll accept. 

This is just one particularly damning example of how New York’s nonprofit-industrial complex has morphed the city’s multibillion-dollar outlays in the name of fighting homelessness into a jobs program that simply pretends to manage it.

It sounds almost identical to what Elon Musk's DOGE team found regarding a lot of federal spending on programs with sympathetic objectives.

Most of the money is spent enriching the people managing the programs.

Very little actually gets to those who need it.

You get a sense of that by seeing how much the executives of some of the nonprofits who are "managing" the homeless programs in New York City are making.



Of course, what incentive is there to actually solve the problem and get people off the streets if the flow of money stops?

California Governor Newsom built his political career on the promise he was going to end chronic homelessness.

When he was Mayor-elect of San Francisco in 2003 he announced a 10-year plan to end chronic homelessness. He stated that it was his No.1 priority as Mayor.


Source: https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Newsom-details-plan-for-homeless-Mayor-elect-2509363.php

Little was different seven years later when Newsom left San Francisco's mayor's office to become Lt. Governor of California.

When Newsom became Governor he similarly pledged to solve chronic homelessness at the state level.

Newsom allocated $24 billion in local and non-profit (sound familiar?) grants to address the problem right after he took office.

All of that money hasn't done anything.

In fact, the homeless problem in California is worse than ever.

 
Source: https://www.independent.org/article/2025/05/27/newsom-legacy-homelessness/


Governor Newsom also believes he has all the answers to run for President in 2028.

In fact, recent polls in California show that Newsom is far ahead of the Democrat field for the nomination in that state.


Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/democratic-primary/2028/california


It seems that Democrat voters do not care much about a candidate's record and results as long as say they tell you they are going to do something about a problem.

Just as baffling is to see Democrats like Newsom and Mamdani fail to make the connection between open borders, sanctuary states and cities and the problem of homelessness.  They also continue to throw millions to enrich their friends and allies at nonprofits with no accountability for results.

In the meantime, the homelessness problem persists despite the fact that it is staining their cities and destroying their budgets .

I can only conclude that there is no hope for homelessness until there is a change in the mindset of Democrats about the causes of the problem and reforming the incentive structure that perpetuates it with the "nonprofits" who profit from the homeless.

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Wiil Birthright Citizenship Survive The Supreme Court?

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear arguments about the birthright citizenship question this Spring with a decision by the end of the Summer.


Source: https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/12/supreme-court-agrees-to-hear-trumps-challenge-to-birthright-citizenship/

President Trump signed an executive order on his first day of his second term changing the policy of providing birthright citizenship to babies born on U.S. soil to illegal alien parents and those whose parents are here on temporary visas. These babies are popularly referred to as "anchor babies".

President Trump's order was quickly challenged in federal court by 22 Democrat-led states and several civil rights organizations. This undoubtedly was no surprise to Trump. However, it set the stage for this important issue to be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

The birthright citizenship question has never been directly confronted by the Supreme Court on the issue of the children of illegal immigrants . Trump's order did not apply to babies born to immigrants who are lawful permanent residents.

Is is also important to note that the Trump order only applies to future anchor babies. It does not attempt to strip citizenship from past anchor babies.

This is an issue I wrote about in these pages ten years ago entitled, "An Anchor Around Our Necks" detailing the compounding costs of birthright citizenship.

This was before Donald Trump even started making headlines about the issue when he first ran for President in 2016.

Let's take a deeper look at the issue of birthright citizenship and the legal issues that will be before the Supreme Court. 

Will birthright citizenship survive the Supreme Court?

Many take it for granted the U.S. Constitution allows anyone born on U.S. soil the privileges of citizenship.

However, if you look deeply at the issue you can see that it is not quite that clear cut.

The United States is decidedly in a distinct minority in providing citizenship this way. Among developed countries, Canada is the only other country in the world to provide birthright citizenship.

In fact, the trend in recent years has been to eliminate birthright citizenship. Ireland was the last European Union country to eliminate it in 2005. France did away with it in 1993. The UK in 1983.

Australia (1986) and New Zealand (2006) are other countries that eliminated birthright citizenship in recent years.




The common narrative repeated by many is that birthright citizen is a fundamental right for anyone born in the United States provided by the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution,

Therefore, it can only be eliminated by constitutional amendment. However, as stated above, this question has never been directly decided by the Supreme Court.

What does the 14th Amendment actually say which was originally enacted to insure that slaves would be recognized as citizens?

Amendment XIV, Section 1, Clause 1:

"All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside." (emphasis added)

That seems fairly clear except for the words I underlined above..."and subject to the jurisdiction thereof."

Is a child born in the United States to parents who are illegal immigrants "subject to the jurisdiction of the United States" when those parents are unlawfully present in our country?

This is the foundational argument behind Trump's executive order. His argument is that the 14th Amendment does not automatically confer birthright citizenship to children of illegal immigrants. These individuals are not subject to the jurisdiction of the United States as they are citizens of other countries.

Even if one believes that Trump cannot do this through executive order many believe that Congress has the right to define what "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" means. It has already been accepted that this means that children born to foreign diplomats do not gain U.S. birthright citizenship nor do members of certain Indian tribes.

If the birth of a child in the United States to parents who are members of an Indian tribe who were also born in the United States are not U.S. citizens based on a reading of the 14th amendment how is it far-fetched to conclude that a child born to two illegal immigrants is automatically a U.S. citizen by birth?

I would further argue that the very actions of the federal government in not enforcing the immigration laws means that illegal immigrants that are here have effectively not been "subject to the jurisdiction of the United States" by the consistent failure of our government to enforce the country's jurisdictional borders. 

How can an illegal immigrant be considered to be subject to the jurisdiction of our country if they are here illegally but our government is doing nothing about it?

The Center for Immigration Studies did a study in 2018 that estimated 300,000 children were born in the United States that year to mothers who are illegal immigrants. To put that in perspective, that is about 1 out of every 12 births in this country!

It is hard to believe that the numbers are not higher today especially considering the surge of illegals into the country over the last four years.

As a result of the prevailing interpretation of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution each of these children are considered to be United States citizens.

500,000 additional children were born to legal immigrants. It should be noted that children born to legal permanent immigrants would still be considered U.S. citizens under the Trump order in that they "are subject to the jurisdiction" of the United States.

Taken together, births to immigrants made up about 20% of all U.S. births in 2018 according to that study.

This overall estimate would seem to be accurate today in that the foreign-born population is now 15.6% of the U.S population (a higher percentage that it has ever been). In that this immigrant population is younger and has generally higher fertility rates than the native population it follows that about 20% of all births in any year are to immigrants.


Source: https://cis.org/Report/ForeignBorn-Population-Grew-51-Million-Last-Two-Years



U.S.-born children of illegal aliens are also eligible to sponsor the immigration of family members once they come of age. At 18, an “anchor baby” can sponsor an overseas spouse and unmarried children of his own. At full majority age at 21, he or she can sponsor parents and siblings under our "chain migration" laws.

Can you imagine anyone who voted for the 14th Amendment in 1866 at the federal or state level thinking that we would be conferring citizenship to this many as a result of this provision?

Or to even consider the fact that people could transport themselves within a day from any point in the world to the United States?

Michael Anton of the Claremont Institute wrote what I have found to be the best overall argument for why citizenship birthright should be ended. He has extensively researched the legislative history behind the 14th Amendment deliberations in 1866.

It seems that those who wrote and voted on the 14th Amendment had no intention that they would be conferring birthright citizenship on anyone whose parents were unlawfully in the United States.

It is also not debatable that the American people were never brought into the conversation as Anton observes.

The American people did not willingly, knowingly, or politically adopt birthright citizenship. They were maneuvered into it by the Left and by the Left-allied judiciary. They’ve never debated it or voted on it. They’ve simply been told that it’s required by the Constitution.

What is in the legislative history to support the view that birthright citizenship was never intended by the 14th Amendment?

Senator Jacob Howard was one of the authors of the 14th Amendment and specifically offered the amendment language that added the words, "and subject to the jurisdiction thereof". This is his explanation of the reasons for that language and its import.

This suggests that to acquire birthright citizenship a person has to be born within the limits of the United States and be fully subject to the jurisdiction of the United States.

This was made even clearer by the clarifying comment of Senator Johnson of Maryland during the debate about the 14th Amendment.

Now, all this amendment provides is, that all persons born in the United States and not subject to some foreign Power—for that, no doubt, is the meaning of the committee who have brought the matter before us—shall be considered as citizens of the United States. That would seem to be not only a wise but a necessary provision. If there are to be citizens of the United States entitled everywhere to the character of citizens of the United States there should be some certain definition of what citizenship is, what has created the character of citizen as between himself and the United States, and the amendment says that citizenship may depend upon birth, and I know of no better way to give rise to citizenship than the fact of birth within the territory of the United States, born of parents who at the time were subject to the authority of the United States. (emphasis added)

Of course, the slaves that were the primary focus of the 14th Amendment met both of these requirements. They had been born in the United States and they were not subject to the sovereign authority of any other country. 

In my mind the most persuasive argument that the 14th Amendment does not confer birthright citizenship is understanding the reasons that the citizenship clause was included therein to begin with.

Earlier in 1866 Congress had passed into law "The Civil Rights Act of 1866"  in order to define citizenship and affirm that all citizens are equally protected under the law. Of course, this was primarily intended to make clear that slaves were citizens and had all the rights of any other citizens.

However, Congress became concerned that the law could be overturned sometime in the future or that it could be declared unconstitutional on the basis that there was no authority for Congress to confer particular rights to all citizens rather just outlawing discrimination.

Therefore, the leading proponents of the Civil Rights Act of 1866 proposed the 14th Amendment with the intention of eliminating all doubts about the law's constitutionality.

As a result, the Citizenship Clause in the Fourteenth Amendment parallels the citizenship language in the Civil Rights Act of 1866, and the Equal Protection Clause parallels nondiscrimination language in the 1866 Act.

Of note, Representative John Bingham of Ohio, who is sometimes referred to as the "Father of the 14th Amendment", stated that the Citizenship Clause in the 1866 Civil Rights Act was meant to require that someone not only be born in the United States but also not owe allegiance to any foreign sovereign.

I find no fault with the introductory clause, which is simply declaratory of what is written in the Constitution, that every human being born within the jurisdiction of the United States of parents not owing allegiance to any foreign sovereignty is, in the language of your Constitution itself, a natural born citizen..

I also doubt that Senators Howard, Johnson and Representative Bingham or others at that time could have envisioned a time in which Chinese, Russian, Mexican or Honduran women would come to the United States and have a child that would be a U.S. citizen.

That child could then as a U.S. citizen at age 21 sponsor their parents and siblings to become U.S. citizens under our "chain migration" policies.

It sets in motion a compounding effect that increases exponentially over time.

What is "chain migration"?

Under the United States’ current immigration system, most migrants receive a green card simply because they are the relative of an earlier migrant, not because of what they can contribute to American society. 

This creates a “chain” of immigrants who can then sponsor other immigrants in the same manner. These, in turn, may sponsor more immigrants, and so on.

As more and more immigrants are admitted to the United States, the population eligible to sponsor their relatives for green cards increases exponentially. This means that every time one immigrant is admitted, the door is opened to many more.

Do you think that those who wrote the 14th Amendment could ever imagine we would have Chinese billionaires fathering hundreds of children using IVF in order to provide U.S. citizenship?


Source: The Wall Street Journal

 


Chinese billionaires are using American surrogates to create “mega-families” of more than 100 children.

Wealthy businessmen have effectively used lax US surrogacy laws to create breeding programmes with the intention of creating an “unstoppable family dynasty”, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Nathan Zhang, the founder of IVF USA, a network of fertility clinics in the US and Mexico, said some of his “crazy rich” Chinese clients wanted hundreds of American-born babies.


As long as birthright citizenship is continued it will be a magnet for illegal immigration, birth tourism and schemes like we are seeing with rich Chinese men. It incentivizes people from all over the world to break our laws to come here. The longer the practice continues the more illegal immigration we are likely to get.

If we are ever to get meaningful immigration reform it is necessary to cease providing birthright citizenship or it will undermine almost anything else we do.

Trump deserves credit for having the courage and personal constitution to be willing to elevate this issue to public debate. It is an issue that deserves public scrutiny and discussion. Whether it goes anywhere in the near term will be determined by the United State Supreme Court.

If the Supreme Court is unwilling to end the policy, it may require a constitutional amendment which will be next to impossible to achieve in the short term considering the current political divide in the country.

However, the fact remains that until birthright citizenship is terminated, a wall is built to staunch the flow of illegals, and strict enforcement policies are adhered to, it will continue to be difficult to reach the goal of the sensible and sustainable immigration reform the United States desperately needs.

Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Insurrection in Minnesota

 It is hard to look at what has been going on in Minnesota and not describe it as an insurrection.

When people are actively obstructing and harassing federal agents from enforcing federal law we are not witnessing mere protests and the exercise of free speech.



Federal law (18 U.S. Code Sec. 2383) states that anyone engaging in rebellion or insurrection by inciting, assisting or engaging against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof shall be fined or imprisoned for a period of not more than ten years.


Source: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2383

Federal law also give the President broad authority to take steps to quell insurrections and rebellions under the Insurrection Act that was first passed in the administration of Thomas Jefferson.

Under this law the President may use the U.S. military to enforce federal law and/or to suppress the insurrection if state and local authorities are incapable or unwilling to do so.

This is the primary exception to the Posse Comitatus Act, under which federal military forces are generally barred from participating in civilian law enforcement activities.


Source: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252

The continuing harassment of ICE officers and the obstruction that has occurred to prevent them from enforcing federal law in Minnesota would seem to be a textbook example of insurrection.

Evidence gathered this week from internet sleuths has further shown there is an extensive behind the scenes network that is funding and coordinating the chaos. 




The evidence also indicates that elected officials in Minnesota were some of those orchestrating the actions against ICE including a couple of state representatives and a Minneapolis city council member.

One of the leaders behind the scenes is alleged to be this woman---Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.

It is hard to believe that she is either... 

1) this committed to the "cause" or 2) this stupid.

I guess we will find out in due course.



The failure of state and local authorities to assist and protect ICE in their duties (let alone organizing the insurrection behind the scenes) would also seem to clearly allow President Trump to deploy the U.S. military to enforce the law and suppress the rebellion in Minnesota.

This becomes even clearer when you see the perspective of this former Special Forces Warrant Officer who has experience overseas with multiple rotations running counterinsurgency operations.

This was posted by Eric Schwalm on X on January 26, 2026.

As a former Special Forces Warrant Officer with multiple rotations running counterinsurgency ops—both hunting insurgents and trying to separate them from sympathetic populations—I’ve seen organized resistance up close. From Anbar to Helmand, the pattern is familiar: spotters, cutouts, dead drops (or modern equivalents), disciplined comms, role specialization, and a willingness to absorb casualties while bleeding the stronger force slowly.

What’s unfolding in Minneapolis right now isn’t “protest.” It’s low-level insurgency infrastructure, built by people who’ve clearly studied the playbook.

Signal groups at 1,000-member cap per zone. Dedicated roles: mobile chasers, plate checkers logging vehicle data into shared databases, 24/7 dispatch nodes vectoring assets, SALUTE-style reporting (Size, Activity, Location, Unit, Time, Equipment) on suspected federal vehicles. Daily chat rotations and timed deletions to frustrate forensic recovery. Vetting processes for new joiners. Mutual aid from sympathetic locals (teachers providing cover, possible PD tip-offs on license plate lookups). Home-base coordination points. Rapid escalation from observation to physical obstruction—or worse.

This isn’t spontaneous outrage. This is C2 (command and control) with redundancy, OPSEC hygiene, and task organization that would make a SF team sergeant nod in recognition. Replace “ICE agents” with “occupying coalition forces” and the structure maps almost 1:1 to early-stage urban cells we hunted in the mid-2000s.

The most sobering part? It’s domestic. Funded, trained (somewhere), and directed by people who live in the same country they’re trying to paralyze law enforcement in. When your own citizens build and operate this level of parallel intelligence and rapid-response network against federal officers—complete with doxxing, vehicle pursuits, and harassment that’s already turned lethal—you’re no longer dealing with civil disobedience. You’re facing a distributed resistance that’s learned the lessons of successful insurgencies: stay below the kinetic threshold most of the time, force over-reaction when possible, maintain popular support through narrative, and never present a single center of gravity.

I spent years training partner forces to dismantle exactly this kind of apparatus. Now pieces of it are standing up in American cities, enabled by elements of local government and civil society. That should keep every thinking American awake at night.

Not because I want escalation. But because history shows these things don’t de-escalate on their own once the infrastructure exists and the cadre believe they’re winning the information war.

We either recognize what we’re actually looking at—or we pretend it’s still just “activism” until the structures harden and spread.

Your call, America. But from where I sit, this isn’t January 2026 politics anymore.

It’s phase one of something we’ve spent decades trying to keep off our own soil.

 

The President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act about 30 times over its history.

The most recent instance was in 1992 by President George H.W. Bush in response to civil unrest after the acquittal of four police officers who had beaten a Black motorist in Los Angeles.

The most famous use of the Insurrection Act in modern history involved the use of federal troops to assist in desegregation efforts and the protection of Civil Rights activists in the South in the 1960's.

In my view, President Trump has shown remarkable restraint in not invoking the Insurrection Act in Minnesota already.

It appears he wants to give Governor Tim Walz and Minneapolis Jacob Frey every opportunity to own up to their responsibilities and provide the necessary cooperation for ICE to do their jobs and provide the appropriate protection. 

There is no doubt that a political and PR dimension is in play here as well. 

Trump does not want to further feed the narrative that he is an authoritarian nor does he want to create martyrs of Walz and Frey who become bigger heroes of the Left by standing up to Trump.

We will have to see where this leads.

Will Trump get the cooperation he needs to bring the temperature down in Minnesota or does this eventually end with invocation of the Insurrection Act?

I have to believe that, at a minimum, we will see some prosecutions of those who were directing this insurrection on the front lines or behind the scenes.

At the same time, it is important to remember exactly how popular Trump's deportation policies are despite the mainstream media and the Left's attempt to demonize Trump and ICE.

Donald Trump was very clear when he ran what his policy would be on illegal immigration.


He did say he would focus first on the criminal element among illegals.

ICE's efforts in Minnesota and elsewhere have been focused on apprehending and deporting illegal aliens who have committed crimes in the United States.

Yes, at times in those efforts ICE comes across illegals that have not committed crimes in the U.S. other than crossing the border illegally. ICE would be negligent in their duties to ignore these people. After all, their job is immigration enforcement.

The fact is that over two third's of ICE detainees last year had either been convicted of a crime of were facing pending criminal charges.

However, Trump ran on a platform stating that he would deport all illegal aliens but focus first on the worst of the worst.

He was elected with voters having full knowledge of that promise.

CNN recently went over the latest polling on the issue which still shows a vast majority of American voters favor deporting all immigrants here illegally.

This is true despite all of the negative news coverage and attempts to paint ICE's actions as extreme.

90% favor deporting those in the country illegally and who have criminal records.



The American people knew what they were voting for when they elected Trump.

They still hold the same views despite the attempts by the Left and the mainstream media to create an alternative narrative.

The Left likes to say that Trump is a threat to democracy and the rule of law

The only visible threat to democracy I see right now are those who do not want to accept what the people voted for in 2024 and those in Minnesota and elsewhere who want to foment rebellion and insurrection against the rule of law.

Simply stated, we cannot continue as a civil society when people ignore and obstruct the laws of the land.

The insurrection in Minnesota has to cease one way or the other.

Friday, January 23, 2026

What's Going On With Housing?

The prices and affordability of housing have received enormous attention during the last couple of years.

Apollo Global Management recently released a voluminous report on the U.S, Housing Outlook, January, 2026 which contains over 100 charts and graphs to provide context on what's going on with housing.

I have selected a few charts and graphs from the report that I found particularly interesting and enlightening.

The traffic of potential homebuyers is near 40 year lows. 

The only other sustained period when potential homebuyers were lower was in the Great Recession Period of 2008-2012.


A major reason for the weak demand is housing affordability.


However, what is interesting in looking at the data, if it were not for the improvement in housing affordability during the decade between 2009-2019 (driven by ultra low interest rates), I don't believe this would be the issue it is in the media and with young people

In fact, housing affordability was much worse in the early 1980's when 30 year mortgage rates surged as high as 18% in October, 1981.

Right now housing affordability is about the same as it was in the 20 years between 1989 and 2009.

A big reason for the low traffic in prospective homebuyers is that first-time buyers are largely absent from the market, 

The number of first-time buyers has declined from 40% in 2004 to 20% today.


At the same time, the median age of first-time buyers has increased from age 30 in 2008 to 40 today.



The median age of all homebuyers is now 59 meaning half of all buyers are 60 or older.

It was 31 in 1980!


The share of those with ultra-low mortgage rates below 3% has been declining in recent years as interest rates have risen.

There are now as many homeowners with 6% or higher mortgage rates as those with sub 3% rates.


The chart below shows how short-lived most mortgages are.

On paper, most mortgages are for 30 years but most last no longer than 7 or 8 years.

The chart title below is not as accurate as it should be.

In reality, 63% of all mortgages outstanding today were issued in 2019 or later.



This is despite the fact that 95% of mortgages outstanding today in the United States are 30 years.


It seems that very few people are taking the advice I gave my children---get a 15 year mortgage. 

You will save a ton of interest over the life of the mortgage!

Here are some typical mortgage amortization in other countries.

It blows my mind that some mortgages in Sweden can be up to 105 years!

Trump's proposal to create 50 year mortgages does not look quite so crazy with that context in mind.

Source: Grok

It should be noted that 40% of all homes in the United States are not subject to a mortgage today.

That percent has been steadily increasing with the aging of Baby Boomers.



Boomers paying down mortgages and increasing home values has resulted in owner's equity in real estate increasing by almost $25 trillion over the last 10 years.



The inventory of homes for sale has improved since 2022 but is still well below historical averages.




This apparently is a function of the number of homeowners who have low rate mortgages who do not want to sell and face the prospect of a higher rate but also the fact that there has been an ongoing structural decline in those moving each year.

In the mid-1980's about 20% of the population moved each year.

That number is now under 8%.


The increase in home values and mortgage rates has resulted in it being more financially advantageous today to rent versus owning a home.



 

Rents may soon be getting even more attractive as the current national apartment vacancy rate is the highest it has been in the last 10 years.

Credit for this is due to increased apartment construction with an assist from immigration easing demand pressure on apartment rents.


Those factors do not seem to be in play in Manhattan where residents now face a median monthly rate of $4,750 per month.



That is an increase of about 60% since November, 2020.



It will be interesting to see how this number evolves during the administration of Mayor Mandami.

He might get that rent number down but more likely than not it will be due to the law of unintended consequences.

Where are housing prices headed?

A lot of this depends on where you live.

The West, the East Coast and parts of Florida and Texas have the highest median prices and would seem to be most vulnerable to price compression over the next year.


Driven by price reductions in these areas it would not surprise me to see national median home prices  come down 10% or so over the next year to get us back within historical trends.

This chart shows how far home prices have gotten above historical trends.


Notice how home prices really spun out of control right after the Federal Reserve initiated quantitative easing policies in response to the Great Recession (2009-2012) and again with the money printing in response the Covid Pandemic (2000-2022).

In my view this is the primary reason that housing prices soared.

Too much easy money chasing a limited supply of housing.

This was exacerbated by the flood of illegal immigrants beginning in 2021 that increased overall demand for housing.

You simply could not bring in over 10 million people in a short period of time that needed shelter without having an adverse effect on housing costs (rents and, and by extension, home prices).

The biggest factor that potentially could prevent a decline in house prices in the near term is the fact that there is sizeable population of those in their 30's that are potential first time home buyers.

Demographics is providing a nice tailwind in the near term for housing demand and potential protection against falling prices.

However, as the Baby Boomers age out, more and more housing supply will become available.

This suggests to me that the long-term appreciation on residential real estate will be much harder to come by looking to the next decade and beyond.

I would expect to see home prices to be well within the historical trend channel by that time.

We will see it sooner if we experience an economic recession of some magnitude in the interim.

What goes up, can come down.

That may be truer today regarding housing prices than it has been in a long time.