Disability Perplexity

What has caused the number of people who are disabled to skyrocket since 2020?

7 million additional people in the United States have been classified as disabled over the last five years.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00074597

Below is a chart showing the population with a disability 16 years of age and older over the last year.

An astounding 1.1 million additional people have been added to the numbers of the disabled in the last three months!

The numbers have increased 2.4 million over the last 12 months.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00074597

What is going on?

What are the criteria to be considered to have a disability in the numbers above?

There are six disability types according to the Census Bureau standards that are used in compiling this data.

1. Hearing difficulty  deaf or having serious difficulty hearing 

2. Vision difficulty  blind or having serious difficulty seeing, even when wearing glasses 

3. Cognitive difficulty  Because of a physical, mental, or emotional problem, having difficulty remembering, concentrating, or making decisions .

4. Ambulatory difficulty  Having serious difficulty walking or climbing stairs 

5. Self-care difficulty  Having difficulty bathing or dressing 

6. Independent living difficulty  Because of a physical, mental, or emotional problem, having difficulty doing errands alone such as visiting a doctor’s office or shopping 

The most obvious answer is that the increased numbers of those with a disability is due to an aging population.

This clearly explains some of the increase.

However, note that the disability numbers were relatively flat in the previous five years (2015-2020) when the leading wave of Baby Boomers were already beginning to reach their 70's.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00074597

Is something else involved here?

Could any of this be due to effects from Covid?

That certainly could be the case.

However, the numbers actually dropped at the beginning of Covid and did not begin to rise dramatically until the period between March and June, 2021 a year into Covid.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00074597

Is it a coincidence that the March-June, 2021 period is also when Covid vaccines were being rolled out most aggressively?

Credit: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/us-daily-covid-vaccine-doses-administered?country=~USA

The numbers since that time have moved upwards on a less aggressive but still very consistent path.

You will almost never see the possibility that the Covid vaccines could be involved from anyone who is studying the increases in disabilities.

Why is that?  

I think we know why. 

An honest analysis should raise the question of whether the Covid vaccines are responsible for the increased numbers in some form or manner.

Is it possible that Covid or the Covid vaccines might have accelerated disability conditions in an already aging population?

My guess is that an aging population, Covid and the vaccines could very likely all be involved in some way in the increased numbers we are seeing with disabilities.

Based on the data, my view is that the most likely reason for the increase in disabilities is that Covid and/or the vaccines accelerated and exacerbated conditions that our population were already vulnerable to as they aged.

Whatever the reason for the rise in disability numbers, the important point here is that anyone with a disability is dependent on the rest of society for the care and support they need.

Increased numbers with disabilities increases the pressure on the Social Security disability income trust, on Medicaid and Medicare and disability insurance rates with private insurers.

It puts additional financial pressure on families who might have to pay for senior or other institutional living support.

It puts additional pressure on the entire economy as there are fewer people that are able to work and more people who need help.

Few people are talking about the increases in the numbers of those with disabilities that I reference above.

They should be.

Even those who are experts in this area in the insurance industry are "puzzled" about the rise in disability claims as this headline from January in InsuranceNewsNet indicates.

Source: https://www.census.gov/topics/health/disability/guidance/data-collection-acs.html

Along with a baffling rise in post-pandemic mortality rates that has insurers stymied, the number of Americans claiming disabilities has skyrocketed since 2020, adding another puzzling factor that could impact corporate bottom lines.

Increases of this magnitude in the numbers of those disabled may not be noticed by most but they will have an impact on us all.

The cause of the increase may be a mystery but the effects will be momentous.

Everyone will be impacted in some way and some manner.

The answer as to WHY should not be wrapped in such perplexity.