Demography Is Destiny

I have always been intrigued by demographics.  It is a window to the future that is too often overlooked or ignored.  The long-term trends are often the most difficult to see in the 24 hour newscycle world we live in today.  In this day and age when there is so much focus on the trees (even the leaves at times!), demographics forces you to look at the forest. 

I wrote about demographics last year and highlighted a few interesting demographic trends.

The developed countries of the world are almost all experiencing birth dearth.  They are not coming close to the replacement birth rate.

All developed countries will have major budgetary challenges with their aging populations.

Immigration policy will also be major debate in all developed countries. 

Although the overall fertility rate is low in Europe, the Muslim birth rate in Europe is three times higher than the non-Muslim rate.  This will feed additional cultural and political divisions across Europe.

There are nearly 44 million Muslims in Europe today compared to 1.1 million Jews.  In the United States, there are 6.5 million Jews and 5.1 million Muslims.  There are actually more Jews in the United States than in Israel.  In fact, 88% of all Jews in the world live in the United States (46%) or Israel (42%).

Most of the high fertility rates in the world are in traditional Muslim countries.  This is not an encouraging statistic for the future considering much of the extreme elements of Islam are in the young age groups in these countries.

Although the overall average for the United States is 2.05, the Hispanic rate is 2.70, the Black rate is 1.93 and all others is 1.90.  Based on these birth rates and assuming current immigration trends, the current minority population will clearly overtake the non-Hispanic White alone majority over time.  A recent study projects this will occur within the next 30 to 40 years.  This is not much beyond a generation away since the average age of childbearing today is about 28 years old.

A recent Bloomberg article by Rammesh Ponuru provides some further interesting demographic insights and predictions.

Today’s most important population trend is falling birthrates. The world’s total fertility rate -- the number of children the average woman will bear over her lifetime -- has dropped to 2.6 today from 4.9 in 1960. Half of the people in the world live in countries where the fertility rate is below what demographers reckon is the replacement level of 2.1, and are thus in shrinking societies.

Ponuru makes some predictions for the future looking to the next 20 years based on these falling birthrates around the world.

The U.S.’s traditional allies in western Europe and Japan will have less weight in the world. Already the median age in western Europe is higher than that of the U.S.’s oldest state: Florida. That median age is rising 1.5 days every week. Japan had only 40 percent as many births in 2007 as it had in 1947.

These countries will have smaller workforces, lower savings rates and higher government debt as a result of their aging. They will probably lose dynamism, as well.

All these effects will, in turn, almost certainly make these countries even less willing than they already are to spend money on their armed forces. Americans who want Europe to bear more of the free world’s military burden -- or even provide for its own defense -- are probably going to be disappointed. So will those who expect Europe to take on humanitarian missions. It won’t even be able to maintain its current weight in future debates about the values of peace and democracy.

The demographic challenges of Europe and Japan have been well documented but China's emering demographic dilemma is not as well known. For example, did you know that China will have a higher percentage of elderly in 2030 than we have today in Florida?

China’s rise over the last generation has been stunning, but straight-line projections of its future power and influence ignore that its birthrate is 30 percent below the replacement rate.

The Census Bureau predicts that China’s population will peak in 2026, just 14 years from now. Its labor force will shrink, and its over-65 population will more than double over the next 20 years, from 115 million to 240 million. It will age very rapidly. Only Japan has aged faster -- and Japan had the great advantage of growing rich before it grew old. By 2030, China will have a slightly higher proportion of the population that is elderly than western Europe does today -- and western Europe, recall, has a higher median age than Florida

I continue to be concerned about the huge imbalance between males and females in China due to their one child policy combined with sex-selective abortions.  I am not sure any large society has ever had such an imbalance in favor of males in their 20's and 30's compared to females.  We have seen imbalances favoring females in the aftermaths of major wars.  For example, it is estimated that there were well over 20% less men than women in their 20's in the South in the aftermath of the Civil War.  In the Bavaria region of Germany it was estimated that in 1946 there were only 60 males for every 100 females aged 21-23.   We may have seen limited instances during the Gold Rush days in this country and other developmental periods where young males vastly outnumbered females but these periods were more limited in time and scope.  China is entering into uncharted demographic territory with the large scale of their population.

China, notoriously, has another demographic challenge. The normal sex ratio at birth is about 103 to 105 boys for every 100 girls. In China, as a result of the one-child policy and sex- selective abortion, that ratio has been 120 boys for every 100 girls. From 2000 to 2030, the percentage of men in their late 30s who have never been married is projected to quintuple.

I have heard the question asked as to what you do with an oversupply of 30 million testosterone-filled men in their 20's and 30's who have no chances to attract a mate?  The most obvious answer-put them in the Army.

Uh-oh.  That is not a good answer especially if the Chinese also hold a lot of our debt.  It is bad enough when you rely on someone else for your bread and butter.  When they also control a lot of guns and guys it is even worse.

19th Century French social scientist August Conte said that "Demography is destiny".  It is about time to we started paying attention.  Our destiny seems to be getting closer every day and we are not doing much about it.