John McCain won 173 electoral votes in 2008. 270 votes are needed to be elected President meaning Mitt Romney needs to pick up 97 electoral votes among states that voted for Barack Obama four years ago to win the election in November.
What are the possibilities?
First of all, since 2008, the electoral votes among the states have been reallocated. Based on this fact alone, Romney will gain 6 electoral votes by just winning the same states as McCain. Likewise, Obama will lose 6 votes. This gets Romney to 179.
There were 4 states that Obama won by less than 5% of the total vote. This means that only 1 out of every 40 voters in these states has to change their 2008 vote from Democrat Obama to Republican Romney in 2012 to alter the outcome in these states.
North Carolina .32% 15 electoral votes
Indiana 1.04% 11 electoral votes
Florida 2.82% 29 electoral votes
Ohio 4.59% 18 electoral votes
If Romney can win these states he will have 252 electoral votes and be only 18 votes away from the Presidency.
Romney has the potential to pick up an additional electoral vote in Nebraska as that state allocates its 5 electoral votes by the Congressional District Method. Two of its votes follow the statewide vote based on its two Senate seats. The other three votes go to the winner within each Congressional District. Obama won the electoral vote for the 2nd Congressional District in 2008 by a margin of 1.19%. That potential electoral vote gets him to 253.
An additional 32 electoral votes are at stake in four states that President Obama won by less than a 10% margin in 2008. This means that only one in 20 voters have to change their votes from 2008 to swing these votes to Romney.
Virginia 6.29% 13 electoral votes
Colorado 8.95% 9 electoral votes
Iowa 9.54% 6 electoral votes
New Hampshire 9.65% 4 electoral votes
Winning Virginia and any one of the other three states will get Romney to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
However, Romney still has other targets of opportunities that went to Obama the last time around. All of these states were in the Democrat column in 2008 but have subsequently elected Republican governors indicating that they could be in play this year. Obama won all of these by more than 10% of the vote but the margin was not greater than 16.5%. This means that if one in 12 voters switch you could see the state move from Obama to Romney. 65 electoral votes are at stake.
Michigan 16.47% 16 electoral votes
New Jersey 15.57% 14 electoral votes
New Mexico 15.13% 5 electoral votes
Pennsylvania 10.35% 20 electoral votes
Wisconsin 13.90% 10 electoral votes
I would add Minnesota (10.24% Obama margin in 2008) and Oregon (16.35%) as two other states that could be in play in 2012. Minnesota has 10 electoral votes and Oregon has 7.
This electoral map by Jay Cost does a good job of visually showing where the race is right now. You will notice that Cost has every single state that McCain carried in 2008 as solid for Romney right now with the exception of the 10 electoral votes in Missouri. McCain only carried this state by .14%.
Obama's problem is that he has almost no upside on his votes from four years ago but he is vulnerable in a number of states that he carried last time. Also, it does not take a lot of voters to switch sides or stay home to hurt Obama.
Wayne Allyn Root is a political oddsmaker (and former Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate) who analyzes the Presidential race with a simple premise-he does not think there is one person in the land that voted for McCain four years ago that will vote for Obama in 2012. However, he believes there are many millions who voted for Obama in 2008 who are now angry, disillusioned and filled with buyer's remorse. It becomes a pretty compelling argument when you look at each voting block that was important to President Obama last time.
Here is how Root sees some of the big voting blocs. I think there is logic in his analysis.
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama’s Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40 percent of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business…that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way…that he’d overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can’t find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Root predicts a Romney landslide. That seems a overly optimistic. I am not making any predictions at this point. However, based on my analysis of the race right now, I think there are three potential outcomes that we could see.
A squeaker for Obama.
A squeaker for Romney.
A comfortable win for Romney. I do not see see the same possibility for Obama as things now stand.
We will find out in 150 days.
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