Two Terms or Toast: Part II

I provided an analysis of the Presidential race in my last post.  I wrote that one of the key factors that determine any political race is the voter turnout, most specifically the comparison between the number of Democrats and Republicans that make it to the polls.

In yesterday's post I referenced research by Josh Jordan @Numbersmuncher.  Josh also writes for National Review Online and he posted an interesting blog article last night, "The Two Polls That Have Chicago Terrified".   The article provides great analysis of the party-affiliation polling of Gallup and Rasmussen and what they may tell us about what voter turnout by party may be next week as well as the potential impacts this may have on the election.

When Gallup and Rasumussen poll likely voters they ask which party they identify themselves with.  In October, 2008, Gallup found that 10% more of those polled identified with the Democrats.  Rasmussen found that 7% more of likely votes identified as Republicans in their polling.

The actual turnout based on exit polling in 2008 was +7% for Democrats.

In Gallup's polling this year between October 1 through 24, the 10 point advantage in party-identification from 2008 has turned into a 1 point advantage for Republicans.   Since Romney also is currently leading with Independents, if this is the D-R turnout on when the votes are counted, Obama will be toast.

Rasmussen found Democrats with a 7.1% point advantage in his polling in 2008.  He was spot on as was the actual D advantage when Obama won on Election Day.  Rasmussen's most recent polls for 2012 are showing a 2.6% Republican advantage in party identification.  This is almost a 10% point shift from four years ago.

Jordan crunches munches the numbers and projects that if the polling is correct and we see turnout that matches this party id split and if Independents break for Romney at close to double digits as many polls are indicating, Romney is looking at a 4 to 6 point popular vote winning margin.

If these polls are accurate and Romney captures a popular-vote win of 4 to 6 points, there is no chance he could lose the Electoral College. In fact, that type of victory would probably yield Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and possibly even some blue states such as Michigan or Minnesota. Overall it would be almost like 2008 in reverse, with Romney taking states many thought would be impossible a month ago.

We will find out in just over a week which pollsters end up right, but any time you have two surveys with such comprehensive data showing the same trend, it is impossible to ignore. And if you had any question as to whether or not Team Obama sees that writing on the wall, you can just watch their recent campaign activity for confirmation. A campaign with a robust, revved-up base does not sharpen attacks on core base issues such as abortion, focus interviews on the Daily Show and MTV, and hold rallies almost exclusively on college campuses. There’s barely over a week to go, and the real battle should be for the middle. Every minute that the Obama campaign can’t make a compelling argument to the middle is a minute lost to Romney and they know it, and it has them terrified.

Toast next week?  Interesting food for thought.  

You can actually buy an Obama toaster at BurntImpressions.com