Things I Know And Things I Don't

There are things I know and things I don't know.

For example, in this election I don't know whether Clinton or Trump will win even though we are 9 days from the election.

A big reason I don't know is that, as I have written before, a lot depends on the voter turnout. For Hillary to win she needs a lot more Democrats to turn out than Republicans. Black voters have to turn out for her and she needs Millennials to support her in similar numbers that they did for Barack Obama. I don't know how any of this will play out right now.

I also don't know what other shoes may drop over the next week. For example, the Clintons are known to play real political hardball. After all, this is their life. They have nothing else. I would expect that they will throw everything they can at Donald Trump in the next few day if they can get their hands on it.

I also don't know what else WikiLeaks has to publish. Interestingly, WikiLeaks has published over 35,000 emails thus far from John Podesta. Not one email has been to or from Hillary Clinton and her campaign chairman. Isn't that a little bit curious?

If Clinton's email are going to be revealed, I would expect we will see them in the next several days.

There are things that I know. However, I try to always be cautious when I think I know anything as I believe Mark Twain was right when he said,

“What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so.”

Accordingly, here is what I think I know.

Hillary and the FBI Investigation

Friday's announcement by FBI Director Comey that they are reopening the investigation of Hillary's private email server is damaging to her.

The most damaging thing that can happen to a politician is being exposed as a hypocrite. For example, being a champion for African-Americans and being caught on tape disparaging a black worker.

The next most damaging is hard evidence that supports a pre-existing narrative about the candidate. The Watergate investigation was a continuing problem for Richard Nixon because he was already known as "Tricky Dick". The 47% comment by Mitt Romney did significant damage to him because a narrative had already been established that he "did not care about you and me." Most people already do not think Hillary is honest or trustworthy. Trump calls her "corrupt." The FBI investigation supports that narrative with hard evidence. It will hurt her down the stretch.

The Polls

The pollsters are making big assumptions in their polling data that voting turnout in 2016 will look a lot like 2008 and 2012. They are expecting a big turnout of Democrat identified voters compared to Republican identified voters. I don't know about that.

Here are the weightings in a few of the major polls right now between Democrats and Republicans. This means that Democrats are oversampled compared to Republicans in the survey.

IBD  D+7
ABC D+9
Fox   D+9

In these three polls, Hillary is up by +2 (IBD), +1 (ABC) and +3 (Fox). Bear in mind, all three of these polls were largely taken before the new revelations about the FBI investigation of Hillary. In addition, in the ABC tracking poll, Hillary has lost 11 points in one week to Trump.

Source: ABC/Washington Post Tracking Poll, 10-29-16

These party weightings might be right but I doubt it.  For example, even in Obama's landslide year of 2008, Democrats were only +7 in the actual vote. In 2102, that dropped to D+6. By comparison, in 2004 when Bush won, equal numbers of D's and R's voted. In 2010, when the GOP took over the House in a landslide it was even between D's and R's. In 2014, another big year for Republicans, it was +1 R.

What I do know is that in order for Hillary to be clinging to her small lead in these polls right now they are relying on a heavier Democrat turnout than Obama got in 2008. That does not seem realistic considering the enthusiasm gap between Hillary and Trump we see at rallies and in social media.

The Pew Research Center has followed trends in party identification in their research since 1992. Here is a graphic showing those trends. The gap between self-identified Democrats and Republicans is actually much lower in their research (D+4) than it was in Democrat wins in 1992 and 2008 where it was in double digits.

I know that the Democrats have a great machine to turnout voters. They can take a bus to an inner city church, community center or welfare center and easily deliver dozens of voters to an early voting site. Republicans have nothing comparable. They have to rely on their voters showing up one by one to the polling location.

I don't know that the Democrats are going to be able to replicate what they did in 2008 in 2012. Hillary Clinton is not Barack Obama. Whether this happens or not will probably determine this election.

If Hillary Loses

I also know that if Donald Trump defeats Hillary Clinton we will see unbounded anger and antagonism directed at the Clintons by liberal Democrats. They will be seething that Hillary could have allowed Donald Trump to keep the Democrats from winning The White House and controlling the Supreme Court. Hell hath no fury like a scorned liberal Democrat!

We have already seen in the WikiLeaks emails how many of Hillary's closest advisors and supporters distrust or disrespect her in private. If she loses, there will be few supporters who speak on her behalf. She will be an anathema to Democrats in losing to someone like Donald Trump. If the FBI investigation turns up anything, she will have few defending her.

It all goes to show how much turns on this election for Hillary Rodham Clinton. There have been few people in history who are perched on a precipice where voters leaning one way or the other could mean going from hero to zero so abruptly. Of course, if she makes it off the precipice on election day she still faces a fall down the cliff's wall depending on where the FBI investigation ends.

This is why I expect that Hillary will do almost anything in these final days. This may be an election for Donald Trump. It is much, much, more than that for Hillary Rodham Clinton. This is her life. This is her legacy. This even might be about her freedom.

In any event, no matter what happens, it seems clear that Hillary will separate ways from her long-time aide Huma Abedin. Abedin is in serious legal jeopardy that, at a minimum, includes perjury and/or obstruction of justice not to mention potential mishandling of national security information.

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That probably is enough on things I know and things I don't for now. After all, people who know too much about the Clintons have not always fared well. That may be about to change. It is easy when you are on top. It is much tougher when you no longer have any power left and nobody is willing to pay for play.