Sunday, July 25, 2021

Monday Meanderings

Monday seems like a good day to clear out my inventory of charts and graphs that I found interesting over the last few weeks in my meandering research.

India

Encouraging news from India which was the world's Covid hotspot two months ago.

Cases have plummeted over 90% since the peak.


Credit: https://twitter.com/tlowdon/status/1417551379241922562

Latest Covid Seroprevalence data shows that 70% of population now have antibodies from previous infection. It was less than 1% a year ago. It was 25% at the beginning of the year.


Source: https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1417588323434983427/photo/1

Vaccines seem to have had little effect in drop in cases in India. Only 2% fully vaccinated at peak in May---6% now. 




Hospitalizations for Covid

This is a great chart to provide perspective on the serious cases of Covid that require hospitalizations.

It compares hospitalizations for Covid of those age 65+ with those for children in 2020 and for 2021 until early July.



Note that hospitalizations among those age 65+ dropped dramatically between Week 1 of 2021 and Week 9 (first week of March). It then leveled out for about two months before dropping further from early May until early July when the data set ends.

Note that the curve is also similar to last year but at a lower level.

The working assumption is that the decrease is due to the vaccines. However, seasonality may also be in play as it was last year. The fact is that very few of those age 65+ had received both doses of the vaccine by March 1. About 41% had received at least one dose by that time.

It will be interesting to see what the next two months reveals. Will the hospitalization curve for age 65+ increase again?

The real test will be in the Fall when the United States must fight the seasonality trend in the northern states. That is when we will really know how effective the vaccines are.

The other revealing fact in this slide is that it graphically shows that an unvaccinated child is many times more protected from the virus than a vaccinated adult.

To add more context to this point, the CDC estimated back in March that 42% of school age children had already been infected with Covid with very little serious effect. This was a greater incidence of infection than any other age group.



Credit: https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1417948092603772935/photo/1


Why then is there such a motivation to vaccinate this group?


Heat and Fire

We are in that season when the popular narrative is that the planet is burning up with unprecedented heat.

This year that also includes a narrative that we have NEVER seen such devastating wildfires in the Western United States.

The fact is that in the United States it was much, much WARMER in the 1930's, 1940's and 1950's than it is today in terms of severe heat (95+ degrees F).

This chart graphs temperatures above 95F at all historical climatology stations since 1895.


Source: https://twitter.com/Tony__Heller/status/1418537246441951236/photo/1

What about those UNPRECEDENTED wildfires?

Here are the year-to-date statistics for the last ten years taken directly from the National Interagency Fire Center website.


Source: https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/nfn

Acres burned year-to-date in 2021 are actually only 76% of the 10-year AVERAGE. 


Hitting the Links

The pandemic has been very good for the golf industry.




Uncharted Territory

A great chart to end on.

Would you say we are in uncharted territory?

How long will lenders be willing to lend money and lose 4% on the deal?

How does this end? 

This clearly cannot continue without an adjustment on one end or the other.



 Credit: https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1415659237276098562/photo/1


Do not fear.

Joe Biden says the answer is to borrow and spend another $4.1 trillion for "human infrastructure" (and a little thrown in for bridges, roads and the like) which is going to "reduce inflation"

"If we pass the other two things I'm trying to get done, we will reduce inflation. Reduce inflation. Reduce inflation. Because, we're going to be providing good opportunities and jobs for people who in fact are going to be reinvesting that money back into all the things we're talking about. Driving down prices, not raising prices. "


I guess we can count on it.




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