Monday, March 6, 2023

This and That---March 6, 2023 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Mortgage Rates

30-year mortgage rates are now about 7%

Two years ago, when Joe Biden took office, they were below 3%.



It has been over 20 years since we last saw a 7% mortgage rate.

In fact, 99% of all borrowers have mortgage rates below current market rates.



Over 70% have mortgage rates below 4%.

The reality is that very few current homeowners are going to want to abandon a 3%-4%mortgage by selling their home to buy another at a 7% rate.

My concern is that the real estate market may lock up.

Those wanting to buy a new home are also priced out of the market with the higher rates.




Those thinking about moving up to another home will stay put.

How many are willing to take this on?





Real estate looks like it is headed for a rough stretch.

As long as employment levels hold up it will be manageable. Low inventory levels will allow housing values to not fall dramatically.

However, if people start losing the ability to pay their mortgages, it will be a different story


Covid-19 Hospitalizations

It still continues to amaze me that hospital admissions with Covid-19 among the age 70+ age group (the most vulnerable and the most vaccinated age group--93%+ fully vaccinated, 67%+ boosted) are higher today (9.2/100,000)  than they were at the same time last year. (8.7/100,000).

Of course, this is something that you never hear on the news.

This is the case despite the fact that hospitals are less likely to report admissions with Covid in 2023 (an incidental Covid positive test when admitted for something else) than they were in 2022.

The fact that other age groups are down slightly may be evidence of that.

Covid admissions in 2023 are much more likely to be for Covid.



How Strong is the Economy for Workers?

Joe Biden has been complaining for the last several several months that the economy is growing and employment is strong but he is not getting credit for it.


Source: https://thehill.com/business/3845925-biden-wants-credit-for-a-strong-economy-americans-arent-buying-it/

Perhaps the reason that Biden is not getting any credit is that since he has been in office any wage growth has been obliterated by inflation.

This graphic shows how bad it has been for private sector workers.

Credit: https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1630619332999888897


Tooth Fairy

If the cost squeeze is not bad enough on American workers, consider the payout that the Tooth Fairy is making these days.

$6.23 per tooth!

I was thinking that $2 would be a lot.

Boy, am I out of touch. 


Credit: https://twitter.com/HoneyBeeGeek/status/1631461211551469569


Different Views on Threats to Public Health

How can political attitudes cause such differing views when the data is the data?

For example, there were 107,477 drug overdose deaths in the 12 months ending August, 2022 in the United States.

Over the same period, there were 44,000 Americans killed by guns but more than half of that total were suicides.

280,000 deaths are attributed to obesity each year.

There are over 500,000 cancer deaths each year.

Democrats believe that guns are a much greater threat to public health than opioids, obesity or cancer when deaths and hospitalizations are a mere fraction of the other risks?


Credit: https://twitter.com/SouthernKeeks/status/1628780046243569664


Better To Be A Rioter Than A Business Owner

Speaking of public health, Black Lives Matter rioters in New York City in 2020 are going to get a payment of up to $6 million because some NYC police officers did not wear face masks as they attempted to stop the looting, vandalization and destruction of property that accompanied the protests that summer.

Each of the "protestors" is eligible for a $21,500 payment.


Source: https://www.frontpagemag.com/blm-rioters-get-6m-because-cops-didnt-wear-face-masks/

Of course, the owners of the small businesses that were looted and ransacked in the riots were only provided with a maximum payment from the city of $10,000.

Credit: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hundreds-of-new-york-city-businesses-were-damaged-looted-in-recent-unrest-11591993138

Is there a better example that we have lost all common sense?


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