Debt Deal Disappointment

I think of myself as a pragmatic conservative.

I focus on facts and data rather than emotions.

I understand that in the world we live in that compromise is necessary. You are never going to get what you believe is right when you must work within the political process.

I also know that the primary motivation of any politician is survival. Almost all of them talk a big game about what they are going to do for you. However, their basic instinct is going to be to protect their power first and foremost.

Donald Trump is about the most non-politician of any politician there is. That is the major reason he was elected in 2016,

However, even he was not immune from valuing his survival higher than doing what he knew he should do during the pandemic.

It was self evident a short time into the Covid pandemic that Dr. Anthony Fauci should have been fired and replaced. He was not serving the best interests of either Trump or the American people with his advice.

Trump knew that instinctively.

However, he never touched Fauci because he knew the media and the Democrats would bludgeon him continually if he took that step. Trump took the path of least resistance for his own survival rather than doing what was necessary.

We are seeing this play out again in the debt ceiling limit deal negotiated between Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Joe Biden.

I had argued in a blog post last week "There Will Be No Debt Default" that I applauded the House Republicans for attempting to use their leverage on the debt ceiling to do something about the disastrous fiscal path the country is on.

However, I predicted that in the end it would likely be of little value in producing tangible benefits even in the best case.

I stated that the Republicans would be much better served by asking Biden and the Democrats for simple measures the average American understands rather than arcane budget reforms.

I would much rather have seen the Republicans tie its border security bill to the debt ceiling limit. Add in cutting back on those 87,000 new IRS employees that the Democrats passed into law last year.

They need to put Biden and the Democrats on the defensive with proposals the average American understands and supports.

Would Democrats really want to shutdown the government because they are unwilling to secure the border and double the size of the IRS?

Now that I see what Speaker McCarthy and his GOP team "got" in these negotiations I can't help but wonder...

"What were they thinking?"

It appears that they were only thinking of their survival in power.

I don't say that lightly as I understand the need to compromise and I stressed in my earlier blog post that the Republicans should remember that "discretion is the better part of valor" considering the slim majority  they have in the House of Representatives.

However, when I look at the specifics of what they got in this "deal", it is not easy justifying a vote for this package.

Let's look at some of those specifics that the House is scheduled to vote on today.

The House-passed bill to raise the debt limit provided for a $1.5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling limit.

At current rates of spending, this would have probably meant that the debt ceiling would have had to be reconsidered again next Spring. This would have given the GOP additional leverage next year for other parts of their agenda.

However, the McCarthy-Biden proposal has no dollar-denominated debt ceiling limit.

Instead, it allows the federal government to borrow as much as it needs or wants until January 1, 2025.

This will mean that the debt ceiling could go up another $2 trillion, $3 trillion, $4 trillion or higher without  requiring additional Congressional approval.

If we were to face a recession in the next 18 months there is no telling what the debt limit might end up being.

Notice as well that the debt ceiling limit will expire after the 2024 elections but before a new Congress will be sworn in during the first few days of January, 2025.

This means the next debt limit ceiling discussions will occur during a lame duck session of Congress and what could also involve a lame duck President.

You also have to wonder what would stop the Biden administration Secretary of Treasury from issuing as many debt obligations as they could right before the January 1, 2025 deadline?

None of this is conducive to being in the best interests of the American people.

On the other hand, it is all rather convenient for the politicians involved don't you think?

Speaker McCarthy is working to sell the compromise by arguing that it will restrain discretionary spending that is largely feeding the federal bureaucracy.

That is supposed to be accomplished by freezing this spending at 2023 budget levels for the next two years.

However, this is after massive Covid spending already got baked into the federal budget over the last several years.

2023 discretionary spending is up 56% from President Obama's 2016 budget.

In other words, McCarthy is claiming credit for "saving" billions of dollars of spending.

However, are we really "saving" anything?

The federal government is currently spending over $6 trillion per year.

The portion of the budget subject to the "freeze" (discretionary spending minus the defense budget and VA benefits) is only about 10% of the total.

Let's assume that this $635 billion of discretionary pending would have gone up 5% each year when the 2024 budget and 2025 budgets were formally approved without the McCarthy-Biden deal.

That would be about $65 billion in potential additional spending that has been curtailed as a result of this deal. That is out of projected spending over the next two years of $13 trillion---that represents a cut of about .005 ( half of one percent).

Yes, it's something.

However, this is being portrayed as a major budget breakthrough.

I don't think so.

Even giving the benefit of the doubt to McCarthy, that means he essentially got $65 billion in cuts by providing Biden and the Democrats with what might be $4 trillion of additional debt capacity.

Does that sound like a good deal?

The Republicans also went into the negotiations with the objective of making sure that Biden's student debt cancellation plan would clearly be outlawed by the Congress.

What did they get instead?

Nothing on rebuking Biden's executive order by statute. Instead, they have effectively punted the issue to the Supreme Court decision that is expected later this month.

The deal does include a provision to require all student loan borrowers to start paying on their loan again at the end of August (all student loans have been in forbearance for over three years by executive order). However, this was already the date repayment on loans were supposed to resume now that the Covid emergency it was based on is no longer in place. In effect, all this does is prevent Biden from again using an executive order to further delay the restart of payments.

In effect, it makes it unlawful for Biden to do something that is already unlawful.

House Speaker McCarthy also made a big show that he was going to repeal the $80 billion in additional funding for the Internal Revenue Service to be used to hire 87,000 new IRS employees over the next decade.

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kevin-mccarthy-pledges-87-000-irs-agents-losing-their-jobs-on-day-one-if-republicans-take-majority/ar-AA1393bR

The House Republican bill that passed the House would have deleted this funding.

What is in the deal with Biden?

IRS funding is going to be cut by just $1.9 billion---less than a 3% haircut.

The IRS keeps $78.1 billion of the total funding.

I guess this only allows for 84,000 new IRS employees to be hired.

I am all for compromise.

However, is this a compromise or a surrender?

McCarthy says that the Democrats did not get one thing in this deal.

Senator Ted Cruz has a different take.

The consensus view from many Democrats is that the deal is much better than they expected.

A sampling of some views.

Unfortunately, this is what I expected when I wrote my previous blog post on this subject.

If the GOP wanted to get something tangible and hold the Democrats' feet to the fire they should have insisted that their border security bill (already passed by the House with no Democrats voting in favor) be the quid pro quo.

For good measure, they should have stated they also wanted the IRS funding cut. In the spirit of "compromise" they would be willing to accept less than a full repeal and allow $20 billion ( a 75% reduction) to be retained by the IRS for technological updates.

Of course, that is not the strategic path Speaker McCarthy chose in the debt ceiling negotiations.

I would expect the McCarthy-Biden deal will get the votes needed to pass.

There will be defectors from both parties who will vote no.

Democrats who don't want to curtail any spending. Republicans who understand that this is more a "show vote" than onc of substance.

However, Biden and McCarthy will get the votes they need some how and some way.

In the end, the politicians will prevail.

They will kick the can further down the road.

They will cling to their power a bit longer.

In the meantime, we travel further into a debt-fueled disaster that will consume us all at some point.

Why couldn't we at least get a secure border out of this?

Why should we want to share the inevitable misery that lies ahead with so many other people who are not supposed to be here anyway?

Isn't that inhumane?

Memorial Day 2023

I am republishing a blog post that I wrote on Memorial Day 2019.

If you are new to BeeLine over the last four years, it may help you reflect on those who gave the ultimate sacrifice for the freedoms we enjoy,

If you have been a BeeLine reader longer, it probably will not hurt to be reminded again of those who gave it all to lift us all up. 

Take a moment to think of what our world (and yours) would look like but for those who were willing to serve and sacrifice in the Revolutionary War, Civil War, World War I and World War II in particular. 

Saying that they lifted us up is an understatement.

Lifting Us Up

(originally published May 26, 2019)

Memorial Day began as a day of remembrance for those who perished in the Civil War.  It originally was called "Decoration Day", a term I still remember my grandparents using to refer to the day. That was because the origins dated back to ceremonies where the graves of those who died in battle were decorated with flowers to honor their service and memories.

The late May date was chosen for Decoration Day as that was the time in which most flowers were in full bloom.

Memorial Day started to be used as the name for the holiday in the 1880's but the name did not start to gain popular acceptance until after World War II. It did not officially become "Memorial Day" until Congress declared that the official name of the holiday in 1967.

I became very aware of its origins and the divide that still existed between North and South when I attended law school at Emory University in Atlanta in the early 1970's. Memorial Day was not even recognized as a holiday at the school and in much of Atlanta at that time.

It originally was celebrated on May 30 of each year which I also remember. The holiday was established as the last Monday in May by an Act of Congress that took effect in 1971. Despite that, my law school classes were still held as usual in 1973 on Memorial Day as if it was any other day. That was a little difficult for a Yankee like me to understand. I recall that it was not until the following year that Georgia fully joined the union in celebrating Memorial Day.

Lest we ever think about forgetting, these are the numbers of Americans who have laid their lives down for our freedom over the years.

Credit: Wikipedia.com

I have featured Angela Pan's photography in BeeLine previously. Angela is based in Washington, D.C. and some of her best work features the monuments and memorials in our capital city. Featuring her photographs has become a BeeLine tradition on Memorial Day.

These images truly honor the men and women who have given the ultimate sacrifice to preserve our freedom through the years.

Vietnam War Memorial
Credit: Angela Pan

Arlington National Cemetery
Credit: Angela Pan

Iwo Jima Memorial
Credit; Angela Pan

We should also not forget that the sacrifices of these men and women have ultimately allowed us to be better in the end. Those losses allowed the rest of us to gain more and achieve more. They have truly lifted us up.

I came across a great example of that this week when I saw this image of the Golden Bridge in Da Nang, Vietnam. The area around the bridge is actually the site of the famous American military base during the Vietnam War. Notice that the hands "holding up" the bridge were apparently carved from stone outcroppings.

Golden Bridge
Da Nang, Vietnam

Here is another image which shows an overview of the bridge. To think that something so magnificent has been built in area which was so central during the Vietnam War, and the death and destruction that accompanied it, speaks volumes.

Golden Bridge
Credit: BoredPanda.com

I can think of nothing better that represents how those who have sacrificed have lifted the rest of us up.

May we never forget.

This and That---May 26, 2023 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

G-7 Leaders Are Unloved

If you need confirmation that people around the world are confused and unsettled about what is going on around them look at this comparison of approval ratings of the leaders of the various G-7 countries.

All of these leaders met in Japan earlier this week.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/20/world/asia/g7-leaders-biden.html

What I find incredible is that Biden actually has the second highest approval rating in the group.

It is also sobering that in all of these "democratic" societies that not one of the leaders currently has the approval of a majority of the citizens.

Doesn't it raise the question as to what they are all agreeing to do on behalf of their people?

Apple and Nvidia

The market capitalization of Apple has reached $2.75 trillion.

It is the most valuable corporation in the world.

Apple now represents 7.4% of the entire S&P 500 index.

Even more interesting is that the value of Apple is greater than the market cap of the entire Russell 2000 index (small cap stocks).

This is despite the fact that Apple's revenues are only 16% of those of the Russell 2000 companies.

However, Apple's net income is over 80% higher than all of the profits of the Russell 2000.

Apples's market cap is about 7 times the size of its annual revenue (price/sales ratio).

On the other hand, Nvidia, which had a blow out earnings report this week, propelled by its work involving artificial intelligence, saw its market value increase by $200 billion just yesterday.

How big a move is that ONE DAY increase?

It is bigger than the TOTAL MARKET VALUE of 472 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 index.

That means that Nvidia now has a current price/sales ratio of of almost 35----five times that of Apple.

Credit: https://companiesmarketcap.com/nvidia/ps-ratio/

Nvidia's earnings from AI may ultimately justify that stratospheric stock price. However, that is extremely unlikely. Stocks like Amazon and Tesla once had similar price to sales ratios but there are many, many more companies that could not grow revenues and profits fast enough to meet the expectations of their stock price long term.

Whenever I see something like this unfold in the stock market I consider the words of former Sun Microsystems CEO Scott McNealy who provided this sage advice over 20 years ago when talking about the challenge of meeting the expectations of stock prices in the tech sector gone wild in the 2000 dot.com craze.

This interview came after many of those high flyers came back to earth, including his own company, which had a price/sales ratio of around 10 at the peak of the market.

At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?’— Scott McNealy, Business Week, 2002

Will we be saying the same thing to Nvidia shareholders a few years hence?

What were you thinking?

Florida, Texas, California and New York

Florida finished with a record $22 billion budget surplus for its 2022 fiscal year.

Texas is projecting a $33 billion surplus for its 2023 fiscal year.

Source: https://www.texastribune.org/2023/03/13/texas-budget-surplus/

Neither have state income taxes.

On the other hand, California is looking at a $32 billion deficit in the current fiscal year

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-12/california-s-newsom-releases-revised-224-1-budget-proposal-for-next-fiscal-year

The state of New York reported a modest surplus for its recent fiscal year ending March 31.

However, personal income tax collections fell by nearly 17% compared to the previous year.

Credit: https://twitter.com/BarbarianCap/status/1661886908534751232

California has a top personal income tax rate of 13.3% and New York tops out at 10.9%

In New York State, 46% of the personal income tax comes from the top 1% of earners.

In California, the top 1% are carrying over 47% of the total burden.

Then there is this.

When people move they also take their money with them.

It makes you wonder who is going to be left to pay the bills in Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York?

LGBT By Generation

Is it something in our food, water or air?

Did climate change cause this?

Has biology evolved this much within just a few years when we saw nothing like this for thousands of years?

What would explain this massive difference in how people identify by generation?

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/389792/lgbt-identification-ticks-up.aspx

Interestingly, a lot of this change has only been true with young women.

in 2008, 93% of 18-29 old women identified as heterosexual.

In 2022, only 65% did.

However, the sexual orientation of young males has not changed much.

In 2008, 97% of 18-29 men said they were straight. That number was 94% in 2022.

All of this might explain this chart.

Is this another reason for men to identify as women?

Your odds might actually be better in finding someone to partner up identifying as a woman?

You also have this working for you in the athletic realm.

You can be a 14-15 year old high school freshman or sophomore male track star who nobody has ever heard of.

Or you can be the "women's" world record holder in almost any event you can think of.

These boys are not even close to being fully developed males either.

14-15 year old boys high school track records vs. women's world records
Source: https://twitter.com/monitoringbias/status/1656722279907065861/photo/1

How exactly is the LGBT agenda advancing the female (and human) species on this planet?

It is hard for this woman to comprehend.

Can anyone make sense of any of this?

There Will Be No Debt Default

There will be no debt default despite what you hear on the news.

This will be true even if no agreement is reached on raising the debt limit ceiling in the next week or two.

There is plenty of cash coming in to pay interest on the debt and any maturing debt owed by the federal government.

To argue that there will be a debt default is like arguing that if your credit card company refuses to raise your credit limit that you will be in default on your mortgage, car loan or credit card balance.

The fact that your credit card limit is not increased may mean that you no longer can continue to spend profligately on nights on the town, buy new designer outfits ever week or take the vacation to Cabo that you planned.

You may have to cutback your discretionary spending but you would be a fool to refuse to pay your monthly mortgage or car payment because the credit card company refused to give you a higher credit limit.

This is the reality of the debe ceiling discussions.

House Republicans  have simply stated that they will not agree to a further increase in the debt ceiling limit until Biden and the Democrats make some modest concessions on future federal spending.

It would be akin to the credit card company telling you they are not going to raise your credit card limit unless you agree to bring your spending a little more in line with your income.

Let's put all of this in context.

(All of these numbers are from the CBO's "Budget and Economic Outlook 2023 to 2033")

In the 2022 budget year, the federal government had revenues of $4.9 trillion.

Outlays for the year totaled $6.2 trillion.

That amounted to a $1.3 trillion annual deficit. The federal government needed to borrow that amount to pay all the bills,

Current budget forecasts of the Congressional Budget Office project that federal revenues will increase by 45% in the next ten years to over $7 trillion.

However, outlays are forecasted to rise from $6.2 trillion to almost $10 trillion in 2033.

That would leave a budget deficit that is $2.7 trillion in 2033---over twice as large as now---despite revenues increasing by almost 50%.

The debt ceiling limit is currently set at $31.4 trillion.

Current projections are that the federal debt level would grow to $58 trillion in 2033.

Keep in mind that these projections assume that inflation will return to 2% or lower for most of the next 10 years.

This chart from the CBO shows how quickly it assumes inflation will drop.

Source:https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58946#:

You can imagine what federal spending will be if inflation does not fall this quickly.

The House Republican bill would trim spending by about $4.8 trillion out of projected spending of almost $80 trillion over the next decade.

If you had to cut back your spending by 6% would you consider that draconian?

The Democrat response is that any spending cuts are simply impossible and inhumane.

They argue that taxes have to be raised to close the deficit.

However, in 2022 federal revenues amounted to almost 20% of GDP. That is the third highest percentage in the history of the country. It is exceeded only by 1945 (fueled by a WWII income tax surtax) and in the year 2000 (high capital gains taxes due to the dot.com hysteria).

The long-term average has been around 17%.

On the other hand, federal outlays were 25% of GDP in 2022. Some of this is related to Covid spending.

However, even with Covid spending behind us, current budget projections show that spending does not drop below 23.5% of GDP for the next 10 years and will be at 25.3% of GDP in 2033.

I believe even a 5th grader looking at these numbers would understand this is simply unsustainable.

You cannot consistently spend more than you take in and continue to take on more and more debt before you will eventually hit the wall.

A day of reckoning awaits.

With it will come immense pain and suffering.

I applaud the House Republicans for using the leverage they have with the debt ceiling to attempt to get some concessions from Biden and the Democrats in delaying that day of reckoning.

In a perfect world Democrats would be as concerned about where we are headed with the debt load as Republicans.

That is not where we are today.

The Democrat party would simply not exist but for the government money it pushes out in a steady stream to its constituents for their votes.

Its power is extricably tied to spending.

However, as to the debt ceiling discussions, we have seen this movie before.

When the federal government runs out of ready cash because they cannot issue more debt, that means that only abut 80% of government outlays can be paid for.

You can be sure the Treasury is going to continue to pay Social Security and Medicare benefits.. Welfare and food stamps will get paid. Interest on the debt will be paid. The military will stay on the payroll and planes and ships will continue to operate in our defense. We will continue to send money to Ukraine. I would expect that illegal immigrants showing up at our border will still be given free cell phones and airline tickets into the heartland.

However, the Biden administration will make a big deal of closing national parks, telling government employees to stay home and anything else that will make a big show of the "government shutdown" that will cause inconveniences to American citizens. 

Your tax return refund will be delayed. The passport you are waiting for will not arrive. The lines at airports will increase. 

The mainstream media will dutifully report it is all the fault of unreasonable, extreme Republicans who don't care about the United States paying its bills and standing behind its debt obligations.

In the end, little will be gained. The debt limit will be increased. Federal employees who did not work will end up getting back pay for NOT WORKING. 

As I said before, we have seen the movie before and we know how it ends.

As I stated in a previous blog post, I would much rather have seen the Republicans tie its border security bill to the debt ceiling limit. Add in cutting back on those 87,000 new IRS employees that the Democrats passed into law last year.

They need to put Biden and the Democrats on the defensive with proposals the average American understands and supports.

Would Democrats really want to shutdown the government because they are unwilling to secure the border and double the size of the IRS?

If the roles were reversed, what I am suggesting is the kind of thing the Democrats would be doing.

The Republicans are undoubtedly correct in trying to do something to bend the spending curve down.

The numbers above prove it. A massive fiscal disaster lies ahead.

However, the GOP only controls 1/3 of of the executive and legislative branches of government right now and it is a tenuous hold at that.

The reality is that you can do nothing if you are not in power.

Republicans should be playing the long game right now and save the heroics that will be necessary for later.

All signs are pointing to a recession on the horizon.

As of now, Biden and the Democrats are going to own it.

The GOP needs to make sure that they are far removed from any finger pointing that will inevitably follow.

And you can be sure that there will plenty of that.

It has been said that "discretion is the better part of valor".

In my view, that would be good advice for the Republicans to consider right now.

Bringing Education Into The 21st Century

Technology and innovation have disrupted scores of industries over the last 50 years.

Newspapers. Network television. Landline telephones. Film and music distribution. Photography. Taxis. Retail shopping. The list is endless.

In some cases, the disruptors have gone on to be disrupted themselves.

Blockbuster changed the way many people watched movies. Blockbuster was driven out of business by Netflix. Netflix had to reinvent so as to not be rendered irrelevant itself by streaming.

Cable television disrupted network television. Cable is now being disrupted by streaming as well.

There is one glaring exception when it comes to a major industry that has not been disrupted.

EDUCATION.

Primary and secondary education has not advanced much over the last century.

A teacher lecturing in front of a class of 15-25 students. 

Asking ANYONE? if they know the answer to their questions.

From "Ferris Bueller's Day Off"
Source: Paramount Pictures

The blackboard in front of the class might have been replaced by a whiteboard.

Computers are in use in the classroom but have they had any effect on improving academic performance?

What is different in 2023 compared to 100 years ago in the classroom?

The classroom might not differ much but what students learned has changed.

For example, consider this examination for 8th graders that was given in Bullitt County schools in Kentucky in 1912.

 

Here is some background on the exam as provided by the Bullitt County Geneaological Society

Bullitt County Schools were mostly one-room schools in those days, scattered around the rural county. Students came together at the county courthouse once or twice a year to take this "Common Exam." It was apparently a big deal. The local newspaper urged students to do well, even urging seventh graders that it was not too early to start preparing. Some scholarships were provided to those who passed to go on to high school, which was also a big deal back then. In those days, high school was sometimes another county away and a rare thing for many farm children to be able to otherwise attend.

How many 8th graders today could answer half of those questions let alone college graduates?

Education experts today argue that tests like this merely quiz facts and do not provide any insight into a student's knowledge or understanding.

They then go on to say that testing for knowledge and understanding is very difficult, Therefore, it is not done very often.

This also seems to apply to the SAT and ACT exams which more and more colleges are no longer requiring.

Is it any wonder that the state of education is what it is today?

How much knowledge and understanding do we see on almost any subject at all?

Of course, educators always seem to argue that they could do a better job if they had more money.

Schools in the United States spent an average of $16,993 per pupil in the 2022-23 school year.

Spending has increased over 50% per pupil in constant dollars since 1990.

Total expenditure per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools in the U.S from 1990 to 2019
(in constant 2020-21 U.S. dollars)

Credit: https://www.statista.com/statistics/203118/expenditures-per-pupil-in-public-schools-in-the-us-since-1990/

It is worse in some of the nation's largest school districts.

Chicago public schools spent nearly $30,000 per student this year.

Credit: https://wirepoints.org/trapped-in-a-death-spiral-chicago-public-school-spending-hits-record-29k-per-student-as-enrollment-shrinks-outcomes-plummet/

Spending per student has increased 40% in the last four years.

Credit: https://wirepoints.org/trapped-in-a-death-spiral-chicago-public-school-spending-hits-record-29k-per-student-as-enrollment-shrinks-outcomes-plummet/

What are the taxpayers getting for that money?

83% of the students in Chicago public schools are Black or Hispanic.

Less than 20% of these students can read at grade level.

In Detroit public schools, only 5% of students are rated "proficient" in the latest National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) tests.

However, the Detroit Public Schools Community District rated 99% of its 3,285 teachers as 'highly effective" (53%) or "effective" (36%).

Only eight teachers in the entire district were rated "inefficient".

You have to wonder how much influence the teacher's union is having in all of this?

A prominent school choice advocate looks at the trends in staffing vs. enrollment in the Los Angeles school district and questions whether public schools have become more of a jobs program for adults than an education initiative for kids?

The latest test scores in Los Angeles indicates that only 29% of its students are proficient in math.

That is half of what it was in 2014.

Source: https://www.publicschoolreview.com/california/los-angeles-unified-school-district/622710-school-district

However, you would not know that by looking at the grades that teachers give their students in L.A.

75% of students are awarded with A's, B's and C's on their report cards by their teachers while less than 30% are judged to be proficient in state level testing.

Source: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-12-22/la-student-reports-card-grades-are-high-test-scores-are-low-why-the-big-disconnect

Do you see a disconnect?

It seems parents are increasingly seeing it as well.

The number of students who are being homeschooled has increased dramatically in recent years.

This was particularly true during the Covid pandemic. However, even with school restrictions behind us, the number of students being homeschooled is over three times what it was 25 years ago.

Source: https://www.nheri.org/how-many-homeschool-students-are-there-in-the-united-states-during-the-2021-2022-school-year/

Private school enrollments increased by 6% between 2019-2021 while public school enrollments were dropping.

More and more parents are advocating that they be given more choice in determining how their children are educated.

At the same time, many politicians are saying that there needs to be more accountability from public schools in the academic results that public schools are providing for students.

This is resulting in the passage of "school choice" legislation in a number of states that provide parents and students more educational alternatives to traditional public schools.

School choice includes school vouchers, scholarship tax credit programs, education savings account programs, public charter schools, virtual charter schools, and other meaningful school choices. 

One trend in school choice that is becoming increasingly popular is allowing school funding to follow the student and receive state-funded scholarships to attend the school of their choice (public, charter, private etc).

With school choice, parents and students are no longer trapped in underperforming public schools or schools that are more interested in promoting a woke agenda than teaching the fundamentals of a sound education.

The most popular school choice program being considered in many red states right now is one that provides universal choice to all families regardless of circumstances.

Source: https://thefederalist.com/2023/05/12/school-choice-takes-state-houses-by-storm-in-2023-legislative-sessions/

Seven states have enacted universal or near-universal school choice funding into law---Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Utah, and West Virginia.

North Carolina, Ohio are other states that may be close to enacting some form of universal school choice.

Redirecting the flow of money from school to student is an important step in beginning to reform and improve public schools.

In the past, if a parent was dissatisfied with the education their child was getting in public schools it actually worked to the benefit of the school. The money to the school stayed the same whether the child was in the school or not. The school also saved costs in not having to educate that child.

Universal school choice should hold schools more accountable to parents and the taxpayers.

No student. No money.

However, there is still much more that can be done to use technology and innovation to improve student education putting money aside.

There is a huge opportunity to improve instruction by improving curriculum.

There is no reason that the best teachers and instruction methods cannot be leveraged through technology and innovation.

Why can't the very best instructors be made available to thousands, if not millions of students, in online courses?

Why can't we use multimedia to enhance the educational experience and make it entertaining for students at the same time?

Why can't we use gamification concepts to capture and maintain the interest of students while they learn and test their knowledge?

There are a wide array of possibilities to take education from 19th century concepts to the reality of the 21st century we live in today.

Curriki is a non-profit organization that has a mission of doing just that.

Curriki is a nonprofit organization committed to using technology to improve the quality of online education and make it available as widely as possible.

We believe dynamic, interactive learning content has the power to transform students’ lives at a global scale.

We made it our mission to unlock learning potential by providing the technology that helps every student achieve improved, personalized learning outcomes anywhere, anytime.

Curriki  provides educators with a toolkit to publish and create interactive learning experiences for their students.  

Curriki is also dedicated to providing an open platform that allows education content creators to develop and put lessons, lectures and other educational content for use by all while also letting the creators receive a fair payment for their efforts.

Think of something similar to the Apple iTunes store or Spotify where artists get paid with each download of their music off these platforms.

Curriki provides a platform that schools, home school parents and other can go to get quality online education and education creators have a financial incentive to develop quality content.

The Covid pandemic showed many parents how poor the educational experience was for their children.

It also revealed just how poorly schools and the educational community had embraced innovation and technology to advance the state of education.

When you combine public schools and the increasing power of the teacher's unions over the last 40 years, public education has come to feel like a hidebound monopoly that has no interest in changing with the times. This is despite clear evidence that many children are being ill-served, particularly minority students in large, urban centers.

Make no mistake that changing our educational system will not be easy.

Teacher's unions maintain a immense power over education. 

There is also a symbiotic relationship between these public sector unions and the Democrat party.

99% of over $55 million of teacher's union political contributions in 2022 went to Democrats.

Teachers Union- Long Term Political Contribution Trends
Source: https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/totals.php?ind=L1300

There is little interest in the Democrats or the teacher's union in seeing the public school system and their monopoly power weakened.

Look no further than this tweet from Biden's Secretary of Education if you have any doubts about that.

Teachers know better than their parents as to what is best for their kids?

I have news for Secretary Cardona. A teacher may see a child for 6-7 hours, 180 days of the year.

A parent sees them 365 days a year. 

What planet is he living on?

We also have the fact that the Biden administration directed the FBI to investigate and intimidate parents who spoke at school board meetings to argue that schools be opened during the Covid pandemic.

Source: https://katv.com/news/nation-world/no-legitimate-basis-judiciary-committee-blasts-biden-admin-directive-telling-fbi-to-investigate-school-board-meetings

Or take a look at this email response New Hampshire Representative Tommy Hoyt (D) sent to a parent who was asking him to support a Parental Rights Bill.

He blames parents for the facs that student results tanked during Covid and suggests that for their children's sake they shut up and let teachers teach.

What?

Source: https://nhjournal.com/nhdem-rep-tells-voter-to-shut-up-over-parents-rights-bill/

 

These examples tell you all you need to know about how strong the desire is by the teacher's unions and the Democrats to keep parents far removed in decisions about the education of their children.

Education can change for the better.

We can bring education into the 21st Century.

However, it is not going to come about by relying on the teacher's unions, providing even more tax dollars or following a model that is over a century old.

It is going to require parents to stand up for their children.

It is going to take politicians and school board members who put children ahead of the unions.

It is going to take technology and innovation to remake education as has been done for so many other industries over the last 40 years.

There is a glimmer of hope that change is afoot in all three areas.

Let's hope that glimmer grows into something far larger that will benefit our children and their education.