This and That---2024 Post-Election Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on the 2024 election.

Blue Hawaii

Hawaii is one of the most reliably blue states in the nation. 

If there is a Democrat on the ballot they are most certainly going to be elected.

Hawaii has a Democrat Governor and two Democrat U.S. Senators.

Both of its members of Congress are also Democrats.

In the most recent state legislative session, the state Senate had 23 Democrats and 2 Republicans.

In the State House there were 44 Democrats and 6 Republicans.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_State_Legislature

After the 2024 election, it appears that the GOP will pick up one state Senate seat and two House seats.

In the recent Presidential vote in Hawaii, Harris defeated Trump by 23.1% points. That followed D.C. (85.8 points), Vermont (31.8), Maryland (26.8) and Massachusetts (24.8) as the friendliest to Democrats.

However, Hawaii did shift six points to Trump between 2020 and 2024.

One interesting factoid I came across  recently was that in 2020, on the island of Ni'ihau, Trump received 100% of the vote. Trump  beat Biden 43-0. Ni'ihau is at the far end of the Hawaiian islands chain off the southwest coast of Kaua'i.

I was curious how the vote went in 2024.

Turnout was down and one voter went rogue this year.

All votes were cast by mail in Ni'ihau.

22-1 for Trump.

Source: https://x.com/AudittheVoteHI/status/1855673577829486793

I guess this proves that not everything is blue in Hawaii.

However, there are blues in Hawaii that are a sight to behold.

View from my hotel room on Waikiki Beach last month

Not In My Backyard

It is interesting to see the vote shift from 2020 to 2024 in this area of New York City where a massive migrant shelter was built with the influx of illegals into the city during the Biden/Harris years.

 A Melting Plot Goes MAGA

The city of Passaic, New Jersey is a melting pot.

A very small traditional white population of about 4% of its population.

74% Hispanic.

15% Orthodox Jewish.

7% Black.

Consider the 2024 vote totals compared to prior years.

Ramapo, New York

Ramapo, New York is in Rockland County about 30 miles north of New York City.

It is the home to a large Orthodox Jewish community.

Take a look at the votes in a few of the precincts in Jewish neighborhoods in that city.

Source: https://www.rocklandcountyny.gov/departments/board-of-elections/election-results

Source: https://www.rocklandcountyny.gov/departments/board-of-elections/election-results

Source: https://www.rocklandcountyny.gov/departments/board-of-elections/election-results

Not bad for someone the Democrats called a fascist Nazi.

However, what is even more incredible is that the same people in Ramapo Precinct 35 who voted for Trump , 542-0,. in Ramapo Precinct 118, 593-0, and in Ramapo Precinct 55, 966-2, split their ticket and voted for Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand in the U.S. Senate race by overwhelming margins the other way.

Source: Source: https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/rockland-county-ny/elections/GE2024Results/ballot-items/01000000-4482-4645-ce33-08dcf2403026

Source: https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/rockland-county-ny/elections/GE2024Results/ballot-items/01000000-4482-4645-ce33-08dcf2403026

Source; https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/rockland-county-ny/elections/GE2024Results/ballot-items/01000000-4482-4645-ce33-08dcf2403026

That is some world class ticket splitting!

Mischief in Milwaukee?

You might remember seeing this graphic of how the vote totals came in between Trump and Biden in 2020 in the swing states starting around 4am on the day after the election.

This huge spike in the vote totals for Joe Biden fueled many of the suspicions about the integrity of the 2020 election.

Fortunately, the margin of Trump's victory in these states this year has helped to build more confidence in the integrity of the 2024 results.

However, take a look at this graphic of the 2024 Senate vote in Wisconsin.

It looks very similar to what occurred in 2020.

We again saw a surge of votes benefiting the Democrats after 4am on the day after the election.

It is reported that almost all of these votes came in from the city of Milwaukee.

Trump's margin of victory in the state was reduced by these votes but those votes turned Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde from a winner to a loser. He lost by .9% of the votes---about 45,000.

Most urban areas saw voter turnout decline from 2020.

Milwaukee had 78% of its registered voters cast a ballot in 2020.

In 2024, turnout in Milwaukee increased to 85%.

Compare the turnout in Milwaukee compared to other large Rust Belt cities in 2024.

Source: https://x.com/MVRedPodcast/status/1854591131897459159

Was there mischief in Milwaukee?

Something doesn't add up somewhere in all of this.

Threat to Democracy

A campaign theme of Kamala Harris and the Democrats was that Donald Trump was a "threat to democracy".

Oprah Winfrey stated in Kamala's final rally that if Trump was elected it might be the last time anyone was allowed to vote.

Source: https://twitter.com/i/status/1856351688531095832

How did that messaging work out?

The CNN exit poll found that of those most concerned about a threat to democracy in the election, Trump was favored 58%-40%.

Link: https://x.com/BoLoudon/status/1856146448233980365

It turned out that the messaging of the Democrats might actually have been to the benefit of Trump.

That also may partially explain the following.

Money Is Not Everything

Here are the amounts of campaign funds raised by the Harris/Biden and Trump campaigns based on Federal Election Commission data through October 16, 2024.

Harris and Biden raised over $2 billion between them.

Source: https://www.fec.gov/data/raising-bythenumbers/

It appears there may be double counting here as Kamala apparently inherited $486 million from Biden. that is included in her receipts number as a transfer.

However, that still means Kamala had $1.5 billion to spend on her campaign of $2 billion in campaign receipts.

Trump raised $388 million.

Despite this huge fundraising advantage, there are reports that the Harris campaign is at least $20 million in debt. 

When all the bills come in it might be even higher.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-democrat-officials-worried-tens-millions-harris-campaign-debt-could-problem-report

Trump finished with a surplus of about $35 million according to reports.

What happened to the Harris campaign funds?

FEC records show at least $20 million went for payments associated with celebrity appearances at her rallies with Beyonce, Oprah, Katy Perry and the like.

Source: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/nov/11/kamala-harris-campaign-spent-20-million-celebrity-/

FEC records indicate that Kamala Harris spent $582 million on staff costs.

Trump spent $10 million on staff,

Credit: https://x.com/patrickbetdavid/status/1855459510627803427

Is there a lesson here on who would do a better job of spending your money?

Of course, Trump did not miss an opportunity at an epic troll in stating that the GOP should consider paying off the Harris campaign debt for the sake of national unity.

Who knows what the next four years will bring?

The only thing that is certain is that it will not be boring.