Kids Are Expensive---Not Having Them Is Even Costlier

 I came across this interesting clip of the Colorado House Speaker speaking in support of a bill (Senate Bill 183)  before the legislature in that state that would provide state funded abortions under Medicaid.

Speaker Julie McCluskie (D) argued that despite the additional cost of using state tax dollars for abortions this would actually save the taxpayers money because abortions cost less than births do.

Link: https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1905054826465014086

Yes, that is true.

However, don't some issues go beyond mere dollars and cents?

After all, if we are just interested in saving money consider just look how much money could be saved by not having any children.

No food, clothing or health care costs for children.

There would be no need to build schools or pay for teachers.

We could save all sorts of money. 

How would that work out in the long run?

There are many countries in the world today that are on the verge of seeing what happens when births drop and you don't have many children.

A prime example is South Korea that has seen its birth rate falling for years.

Part of this is due to a number of Korean women who have taken a vow to remain single ("bihon" in Korean).

A subset of young South Korean women have taken it a step further and started a women's movement based on four NO's. (Hat tip to Alex Berenson for pointing me to this info).

NO to dating

NO to sex with men

NO to marriage

NO to childbirth

In a country in which cultural norms do not look kindly on out of wedlock births, the effect of what is going on in South Korea on that nation's birth rate is predictable.

Fewer marriages means there are a LOT fewer babies being born in South Korea.

South Korea now has the lowest birth rate in the world.

The total fertility rate (TFR) is .72 and is expected to go even lower. A 2.1 rate is considered necessary to maintain a stable population meaning each woman would, on average, give birth to 2.1 children during her lifetime. 

This is the current population pyramid in the Republic of Korea (South Korea) with a population of almost 52 million.

Source: https://www.populationpyramid.net/republic-of-korea/2024/

 

Looking at the graph you can see that there is already a huge imbalance between the young and old.

There are twice as many people age 70 and older in South Korea today than there are under age 10.

If current birth rate and death trends continue, South Korea's population will drop to 22 million in the year 2100.

Source: https://www.populationpyramid.net/republic-of-korea/2100/

This graph shows the rise and (potential) fall of South Korea's population.

Population of South Korea Projected to 2100
Source: https://www.populationpyramid.net/republic-of-korea/2024/

Italy is another country on the verge of population collapse due to declining births.

This is the population pyramid of Italy in 2024 with 60 million people.

Source: https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2024/

This is Italy in 2100 at current birth and death trends.

The population will almost be cut in half.

Source: https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2100/

Italy is looking at a potential population in 2100 that will be only 75% of what it was in 1950!

Population of Italy Projected to 2100
Source: https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2024/

China also faces significant challenges from population declines in the future.

China has found that once birth rates decline (China enforced a one-child policy from 1980-2015) it is hard to reverse the trend. Fertility rates are even lower today than during the one-child policy years.

Source: https://phys.org/news/2024-01-china-population-halve.html

At current levels, China's population in 2100 will be less than half of what it is today. (1.4 billion today vs. 633 million in 2100).

Population of China Projected to 2100
Source: https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2024/

Population trends in the United States are better than almost everywhere else in the developed world but it still faces challenges in the coming years.

There are more people between 30 and 60 in the United States today than there are under age 30.

Source: https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2024/

How is that aging population going to be supported by the younger generation?

Social Security and Medicare are going to face enormous challenges in the future.

There will be fewer workers, less productivity and, more importantly, fewer consumers to keep the economy going forward.  Consumer spending is generally the engine that drives the economy.

Automation and robots may help solve the labor and productivity problem.

However, robots do not consume. What will drive consumer spending in a future with fewer young people?

In addition, societies usually advance because of the energy and vibe of the young.

What happens when there is a lot less youthful energy and a lot more senile seniors?

These are questions that few societies in history have had to face.

Those that did usually were not able to survive.

In coming years I expect we will see more and more countries adopting policies to encourage the births of more children. 

For example, Hungary is now providing lifetime personal income tax exemptions for mothers with two or more children.

I recently saw an idea from someone in the United States that incomes from families should be divided between all family members pushing those with larger families into lower tax brackets.

Abortions might be less costly than births in the short run.

However, in the long run, low birth rates are very costly to society.

It might seem unthinkable right now but I do not think it is out of the question that we will see abortions totally banned in some countries in the future as a policy response to low birth rates.

The policy will be an economic imperative for the society to continue to thrive.

Morality does not always win. However, money almost always does.