Transformative Trump

How did Trump win in 2024?

That is a question that a lot of Democrats ask.

Pew Research recently released the most complete analysis I have seen of the voting shifts in major demographic groups between 2020 and 2024 to propel Trump to a second term as President.

Quite simply, Trump defeated Kamala Harris in 2024 by gaining votes among groups who have traditionally supported the Democrat party.

Trump did the same when he beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 primarily by scoring huge advantages with working class white voters who had historically been the base of the Democrat party.

Trump won in 2024 by building on that base and gaining further support with minority and young voters who have also been reliable Democrat voters in the past.

Trump gained the most with minority voters in 2024.

Hispanic voters shifted to Trump by over 17 points between 2020 and 2024.

Asian voters shifted by 16.5 points.

Black voters moved to Trump by 14 points compared to 2020. 

The shift was generally greater with Men than Women but the trend was true for both genders.

Black men had the largest shift to Trump of any key group of voters---almost 22 points.

However, Black women also moved to Trump with a shift of almost 9 points.

Hispanic men shifted to Trump by 19 points. Hispanic women were not far behind at 17.3 points.

(Click on image to enlarge)
Source: https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/a-final-comprehensive-look-at-how

A lot is made of Trump's base being heavily comprised of white, non-college voters.

This has been a major source of support for Trump since he entered politics.

That group remained firmly in Trump's corner between 2020 and 2024 but he did not grow much more support in this group than he had already.

Trump picked up less than 2 points with this group in 2024 compared to 2020.

On the other hand, Trump made major inroads with younger voters.

18-29 age voters shifted nearly 14 points to Trump.

Age 30-44 voters moved 12 points to Trump.

College graduates also moved 6 points towards Trump in 2024.

The only major key groups that shifted away from Trump between 2020 and 2024 were White Women (0.7 shift to Harris) and Women Age 65+ who moved to the Democrat by 6 points.

Men Age 65+ largely cancelled out the senior women by moving to Trump by 5 points.

Another interesting finding in the Pew Research is that Trump would have even won the 2024 election if the turnout was even larger than it was.

This contradicts the argument that we often hear is the Republicans need to suppress the vote to win.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/26/2024-election-turnout-trum-00426544

Donald Trump is working to achieve a lot of transformational policies in his second term.

However, the transformation that Trump has caused between the political parties in the United States is remarkable in itself.

One of the most interesting trends in American politics over the last 30 years has been the shift we have seen in party identification between college and non-college educated voters.

College educated voters tended to be Republicans a generation ago.

Non-college educated voters were likely to vote Democrat.

These previous norms have completely flipped in the Trump era.

In fact, the more education someone has the more likely they are to vote Democrat.

Since Trump arrived on the scene, the working class have largely abandoned the Democrat party concluding a trend that started with Ronald Reagan.

In 2024, Trump and the Republicans have made further inroads with minority and younger voters leaving the Democrats in a vulnerable position looking forward.

There were a lot of Republican officeholders who did not believe in Trump in his first term. He struggled to get majorities in Congress to support his agenda.

That is no longer the case. It is amazing to see how Trump's legislative agenda has moved through Congress with the small majorities the Republicans have.

Trump has become the Republican party.

Donald Trump has been a truly transformative political figure largely through his force of personality.

It remains to be seen whether the shift in voter support he has been able to attain will be sustainable for the Republican party at large after he has left the political scene.

One also has to be aware of the vagaries of the political environment and the ease in which the attitudes of voters can change in a short period of time.

Trump is seeing this right now in his polling numbers as the Jeffrey Epstein files have taken over the headlines and stores about ICE rounding up illegal immigrants are sensationalized by the media.

We saw it earlier with the hysteria when Trump first announced his tariff strategy.

This is graph from Rasmussen where you can see voter reactions to these stories in Trump's  approval numbers.

If you look deeper at the polling data, Trump's approval with Republicans is as strong as it has ever been.

These voters are pleased to see Trump carrying out his agenda on immigration, the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and all the rest.

In fact, CNN just released a poll yesterday that confirms a Quinnipiac poll from earlier this week that shows that Trump's approval with Republicans has actually increased despite the Epstein File saga.

LInk: https://x.com/ThePatriotOasis/status/1945840125277065303

However, the same is not true with Independents who are more susceptible to current media narratives.

Rasmussen and Quantus Insights are both showing Trump's is underwater by a net -17 points with Independents right now.

Six weeks ago Trump was -11 points.

Source: https://x.com/QuantusInsights/status/1945953186730098953

Keep in mind that Trump's overall approval is largely going to be driven by the views of Independent voters at this time.

He cannot do much better with GOP voters than he is doing right now.

He cannot do much worse with Democrat voters.

This snapshot from a YouGov poll this week graphically shows that.

It is still to be determined whether Trump will permanently transform the political parties in the United States for the longer term.

However, there is no denying how transformative Trump has been since he first came down that escalator at Trump Tower 10 years ago.

There has not been anything like it in my lifetime.