Some musings on population and demographics to put some global issues in context.
Russia gets a lot of media attention in the United States.
We constantly heard about Russian collusion in the 2016 election until it was proven it was a hoax and began as a political operation by Hillary Clinton to harm Donald Trump's election prospects.
Of course, that Russia, Russia Russia hoax was then legitimized by the FBI and CIA who did not want to see Trump in the Oval Office.
All of the reasons for that are still not clear. Yes, they did not want Trump to be President but what would possess them to go to the extraordinary lengths they did to attempt to undermine him the way they did?
Over the last several years media attention has been on Russia for its war with Ukraine.
Untold numbers have been killed on both sides of this conflict.
No one in the West knows for sure how large the human toll has been for Russia but some estimates have total Russian casualties of 1 million which include 250,000 killed in action.
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| Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2025/jun/22/one-million-and-counting-russian-casualties-hit-milestone-in-ukraine-war |
For context, Russia's population is only 144 million.
That is almost 200 million fewer than the population of the United States.
One reason for that is that 27 million in the Soviet Union were killed in World War II.
If you take that number out of your population it will result in compounded effects on future population trends.
For context, the United States sustained 420,000 deaths in WWII.
We almost never hear about Bangladesh in the American media.
I thought this graphic from BrilliantMaps.com puts all of this in better context.
Bangladesh has a population of 172 million compared to the 144 million in Russia.
Compare the land mass that each country represents.
If the casualties of Russia keep rising it may have to make a move on Bangladesh just to have personnel to wage its war on Ukraine.
It is crowded in Bangladesh but it is also crowded next door in India.
1.45 million people now inhabit India.
That population matches the entire number of people in North and South America and the European Union combined!
There are now an estimated 5.4 million people in the United States and 2.8 million in Canada that are of Indian origin.
50 million people in India could immigrate to Canada and India would still have 1.4 billion people and would remain the most populous country in the world.
However, if this occurred almost 60% of the population of Canada would be of Indian origin.
It might as well be named New India if that occurred.
At current immigration trends in Canada that might be more likely than it becoming the 51st state.
Look at how the makeup of Canada has changed in the last 40 years as it has embraced open immigration.
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| Source: Statistics Canada |
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| Source: Statistics Canada |
The next Canadian census is next year and the share of native born Canadians will shrink further.
This chart provides some perspective on just how many foreign born persons Canada has allowed into the country the last few years to work or study.
Can you say that Canada is Canada if native born Canadians are a minority?
It appears it is only a matter of time before this is a reality.
Finally, it is often said that demography is destiny.
That being said, you only have to look at birth rates around the world to understand what that destiny looks like.
A fertility rate of 2.1 is required to maintain a stable population.
Countries colored in blue in the map below are below the replacement fertility rate.
Countries in green are above replacement.
Yellow countries are within the range of 2.0 to 2.1.
Countries such as Italy (1.2), Ukraine (1.0) and South Korea (.7) are the most at risk of catastrophic population loss. A TFR of 1.0 would mean the county's population would be cut in half in 70 years.
This is a map of the 20 countries with the highest numbers of actual births in 2023 according to the United Nations.
A couple takeaways from the data.
Europe has about 744 million people to 333 million currently in the United States.
However, it has fewer births than the U.S. due to a lower total fertility rate.
Europe's fertility rate is only 1.38
Ethiopia (4.1 million) has more births than all of Europe (3.6) or the United States (3.7).
Nigeria (7.5) million has more births than the United States and Europe COMBINED!
India (23.2 million) has about 3 times the number of births that the United States, Europe and Japan (8 million) have COMBINED!
What is the destiny that will ultimately result from these demographic trends?
All of the data and forecasts below are from the 2024 report.
They see the total population of the world growing from its current 8 billion to 10 billion over the next 50 years and then gradually declining thereafter.
Note the change downwards since the 2013 forecast.
However, considering fertility rates and other factors, the UN sees the world population being distributed far differently than it is today.
Countries such as China, Germany, Russia and Japan have already reached peak population and are forecasted to see their numbers decline dramatically over the remainder of this century.
The populations of China and Japan are forecasted to only be about half of what they are right now by the year 2100.
China is on track to lose over 200 million in its population in the next 25 years.
On the other hand, India, which today it just slightly larger in population than China, is forecast to have twice as many people as China by 2100.
The United States is projected to continue to grow modestly throughout the remainder of this century until reaching 421 million in population in 2100.
However, you have to wonder if the United States will continue to see population growth when you consider this recent survey of 18-29 year old Americans split between young men who voted for Trump and young women for Harris.
Women aged 18-29 voted 61%-38% for Harris over Trump.
Men aged 18-29 voted 49%-48% for Trump.
Consider the difference in attitudes between men and women on what they view as important to their future personal success.
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| Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-gen-zs-gender-divide-reaches-politics-views-marriage-children-suc-rcna229255 |
Only 6% of age 18-29 women view having children as important to their personal success.
Only 6% view being married as important to their personal success.
Compare those percentages to the young men who voted for Trump.
Women who voted for Trump are more interested in getting married and having children than the Harris voters.
On the other hand, men who voted for Harris are much less likely than Trump men to view getting married and having children as important.
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| Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-gen-zs-gender-divide-reaches-politics-views-marriage-children-suc-rcna229255 |
This should give anyone pause who believes that we are going to see the total fertility rate increasing in the United States anytime soon.
It is not going to be easy to see population growth if those that we rely on to have babies do not see much value in having children,
Based on this survey data. the UN report might be overly optimistic on the future population trends in the United States.
The good news for Republicans is that Democrats may become extinct when this is their belief system.
All of the above also raises the question as to how China, Russia, Japan and Europe can maintain their economic and/or military power over the next 75 years in the face of this population collapse?
It also suggests that India might be the country most likely to move into a stronger position on both dimensions in the coming years.
Pakistan is another country that could be on the rise in that its population is predicted to double by 2100.
Here is how the UN sees the population rankings of the world's largest countries changing between 2024, 2054 and 2100.
What this means to the world order over the next 75 years is yet to be determined.
However, many of the cards that will determine what destiny is in store for us have already been dealt.
And demography really is destiny.
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