A Story To Share This Thanksgiving

A self-described Socialist has just been elected Mayor of New York City.

This comes after we already have far left socialists in charge in Chicago (Brandon Johnson) and Los Angeles (Karen Bass) who are the next largest cities in the United States.

A recent poll revealed that 62% of Americans age 18-29 have a favorable view of socialism and 34% of them say they have a favorable view of communism.

In recognition of Thanksgiving and this reality, I thought it was a good time to republish a blog post I first wrote over a decade ago about the history of the Pilgrims and their experiment with socialist ideals.

This has proven to be one the most popular blog posts I have written over the years.

The story might be helpful if your dear Aunt Karen takes a diversion at dinner to talk about how Donald Trump is a fascist moron and Zohran Mandami is such a caring young man that everyone in New York City is soon going to get food like this every day for FREE 

Image created by Grok

The Pilgrims came to America with an agreement that they would function as what we would refer to today as a "socialist commune". What they each produced individually was put into a common warehouse from which each family then took out their individual needs as determined by the Governor.

They were all going to be good neighbors and take care of each other according to their needs.

They landed in America in December, 1620 and the first Thanksgiving was held in 1621.

The Pilgrims had experienced an enormously challenging first year in the New World after landing at Plymouth Rock a year earlier.

In their first two months, half of the Pilgrims died during the harsh winter.

Their first year of farming (1621) was disappointing. Those that remained after that first year were just thankful to be alive when they got to that first Thanksgiving.

The following year (1622) was not much better. There was stealing and hoarding among the ranks because the harvest was still meager.

As you might expect, while everyone took what they needed, many did not do their fair share of work.

Entering 1623, the leaders of the Pilgrims knew that the status quo would no longer suffice

It was clear entering 1623 that changes had to made if the Pilgrims were going to survive and prosper.

The full story of how they survived and prospered in the New World follows below.

SPOILER ALERT---They did not double down on socialism as the people in New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles have done. They turned to a system based on private property rights, individual initiative and free enterprise---capitalism.

The experience of the Pilgrims became the foundation for the model that made the United States the greatest nation in the history of mankind.

Why do we have to keep learning the same lessons over and over when history is so clear about what works and what doesn't for a society to prosper?

Pilgrims, Prosperity And Poverty

(originally published November 28, 2013)

I am thankful for many things.  My family. My friends. My job. I could go on and on. The list is very long.

I am most thankful I was born in the United States of America.  A country founded on the concept of individual rights and freedom.  A country that has embraced the idea of economic freedom, property rights, and capitalism.

Of course, I was born at a different time than where we seem to be today in our attitudes about some of these ideals. Will our young people be as thankful as I am about their country of birth?  I certainly hope so.  

However, it amazes me how we fail to accept the reality of the failings and foibles of the human condition throughout history. As a result, the same mistakes and missteps plague us no matter how many times the history lesson is taught.

Look no further than Venezuela.  What was once the one of the most prosperous South American countries now languishes under a socialist regime despite rich natural resources.  Communist North Korea can't feed its own people while South Korea is giving a tablet computer to every school child. 

Taiwan flourished in freedom while Red China floundered for decades before it embraced capitalist-based economic reforms. The same was true for East and West Germany.  

In all of these cases there was no difference in the people.  They were literally blood brothers and sisters. It was the governmental system and philosophy that made the difference between prosperity and poverty for the nation's people.

Speaking of history, let's revisit the story of the Pilgrims and the origins of Thanksgiving Day. The story as I learned it in school was about a group of rugged individuals who set sail on The Mayflower in 1620 seeking religious freedom in America.  

They encountered many hardships that first year but thanks to help from Indians and the Grace of God (I am sure this is no longer mentioned in the textbooks) they reaped a bountiful harvest and gave thanksgiving with a giant feast.

The First Thanksgiving At Plymouth, Jennie Augusta Brownscombe

The real story is much more enlightening.  It also shows that there is absolutely no question about which system works best to provide the most prosperity for the most people while limiting poverty.  There should be no debate. There is absolutely no question.  

It has been shown to be true over and over again. However, over and over, we see those who think there is a better, more humane, way to best provide for people in a society.

The real story of the Pilgrims was written by William Bradford who was the leader of the Plymouth Colony from 1621-1657.  He wrote "Of Plymouth Plantation" to chronicle the story of the Pilgrims and it is recognized today as the most complete authoritative source on the subject.

One of the best summaries I have read about the Pilgrim story was written by Dr. Judd W. Patton, "The Pilgrim Story: Vital Insights And Lessons For Today".

Let's start at the beginning.  When the Pilgrims decided to go to America they had a problem not uncommon to many of us. They did not have enough money. They lacked the funds to sail to America, equip and establish their colony.  

As a result, they got financial help from some investors who financed New World adventures in return for a share of what the colonists made through farming, fishing, trade and other working endeavors.

The contract between the Adventurers (Investors) and the Pilgrims consisted of ten points. The most critical of which stated, “That all such persons as are of this colony are to have their meat, drink, apparel, and all provisions out of the common stock and goods of the said colony.” 

Today we would call this a socialist commune. In other words, the Pilgrims accepted the socialist principle, “from each according to his ability, to each according to his need.” Each person was to place his production into the common warehouse and receive back, through the Governor, only what he needed for himself or his family. The surplus after seven years was to be divided equally, along with the houses, lands, and chattels, “betwixt the Adventurers and Planters.” 

The first year after they set sail for America was particularly difficult.  The voyage itself took sixty-six days. They landed first on Cape Cod even though they had intended to reach the mouth of the Hudson River. They spent another month sailing the coast of Cape Cod until they finally decided to settle in Plymouth at the site of an old Indian village on December 21, 1620.

Within two months, half of their numbers died. Of the 24 families who had set sail, only four were untouched by death that first year.  Four other families were wiped out completely.  Those that made it to that first Thanksgiving were thankful.  However, it wasn't necessarily because of a bountiful harvest. They were just happy to have survived.

Contrary to legend the harvests were extremely poor in 1621 and 1622. It was normal to be hungry. Governor Bradford referred to 1621 as the “the small harvest” year.  Yet he notes that in “the summer there was no want.” Thankful for what God had given them, Governor Bradford declared a three-day feast for the purpose of prayer and celebration. We all know it as the first New England Thanksgiving – apparently observed in late summer.

Things were marginally better in 1622. The harvest was a little better but many Pilgrims held back and did not work as hard as others.  There was stealing and hoarding. Bradford and the other Pilgrim leaders recognized that this would continue unless they changed the system.  What could they do to prevent another poor harvest?

This is how Governor Bradford tells it in "Of Plymouth Plantation".

“So they began to think how they might raise as much corn as they could, and obtain a better crop than they had done, that they might not still languish in misery. At length, after much debate of things, the Governor (with the advice of the chiefest amongst them) gave way that they should set corn every man for his own particular, and in that regard trust to themselves; in all other things to go on in the general way as before. And so assigned to every family a parcel of land…This had very good success, for it made all hands very industrious, so as much more corn was planted than otherwise…The women now went willingly into the field, and took the little ones with them to set corn; which before would allege weakness and inability; whom to have compelled would have been thought great tyranny and oppression.”

The socialist system was discarded and replaced with a system that was built on individual property rights that put the trust in individual initiative to take care of the common good of the colony.

How did that work out?

In 1621, the Pilgrims planted only 26 acres. Sixty acres were planted in 1622.  But in 1623, spurred on by individual enterprise, 184 acres were planted!  Somehow those who alleged weakness and inability became healthy and strong. It’s amazing what incentive will do to improve bad attitudes!

However, the Pilgrims still had their challenges. The summer of 1623 was hot and dry. For almost two months there was no rain. Their crops were in jeopardy. Governor Bradford did not lose faith.

Governor Bradford then set a “solemn day of humiliation (fasting) to seek the Lord by humble and fervent prayer in this great distress.” Their prayers were answered. By evening it began to rain. It revived the corn and other fruits. Even the Indians were astonished. The soft showers continued along with beautiful fair weather. The result was a “fruitful and liberal harvest …for which mercy they also set apart a day of thanksgiving.”

By the fall of 1624, the colonists were able to export a full boat load of corn! And the Pilgrims settled with the Adventurers. They purchased the Adventurers stock in the colony and completed the transition to private property and free markets.

The rest is history.  The experience of the Pilgrims went a long way to forming the values and principles upon which our Founding Fathers created a new nation unlike anything the world had ever seen before. It came to be the most prosperous and powerful country ever known to mankind. For that I am forever thankful to the Pilgrims and the others who endured trials and tribulations to give me the life I have today.

As we celebrate Thanksgiving it is useful to remember the Pilgrims and what their experience can teach us.  I think Dr. Patton summarizes the lessons pretty well.

The Pilgrim experience dating from 1623 was and is yet a prototype for the United States of America.  They learned the hard way that: (1) Socialism does not work; it diminishes individual initiative and enterprise; (2) Socialism is not a Godly economic system; and (3) Famine and drought can be used by God to humble a people and set them on a proper course. The Pilgrims responded.  The real question today is:  Can Americans learn these vital insights from the Pilgrims or must we too face famine and drought in the coming years?

Happy Thanksgiving Aunt Karen!

Did The Mullahs Miscalculate?

I could not help but notice this story about Tehran, Iran.

Tehran is literally running out of water and the city may have to be evacuated.

At a minimum, it appears that plans are being made to relocate the nation's capital as Tehran is not sustainable over the long term.

Source: https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2025/11/21/tehran-bone-dry-and-tapping-out-n3809155

This has been running under most news radars, but it's literally a catastrophe for the mullahs.

After decades of mismanagement, illicit drilling, and indulging the citizens of the capital at the expense of the poorer rural areas, Iran is rapidly depleting what few water resources it has left.

Exacerbated by six continuous years of drought, the situation is so dire that the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has said the capital city of Tehran might have to be 'evacuated' before winter.

Even if such an extreme move does not prove to be immediately necessary, Pezeshkian has said, Tehran cannot continue in its current place and form. The area will not sustain any further human occupation or development.

Iranian President Pezeshkian even went so far to say that the country’s capital should be relocated away from Tehran because of overcrowding and a deepening water crisis. 

"The reality is that we have no choice. It (the relocation) is a necessity. We cannot overwhelm this region with more population and construction,” 

“We can develop, but we cannot solve its water problem.”

 

Iran is looking at the southern area of the country in the Makran region on the Gulf of Oman for its new capital.

Source: https://x.com/metesohtaoglu/status/1991761627021209624

This is rather astounding isn't it?

Tehran is a city with a population of 10 million with another 10 million living within its metro area.

To put this in context, it is like saying that New York City might need to be evacuated.

Or Wall Street has to relocate due to a lack of resources to support it.

The Karaj Dam reservoir is one of the largest sources of water supplying Tehran.

Compare the water levels last year to this year.

November, 2024

Source: https://x.com/ShayanX0/status/1988579267177832898

November, 2025

Source: https://x.com/ShayanX0/status/1988579267177832898

Many of the water sources supplying Tehran have as little as 10% of normal capacity.

The news reports cite mismanagement, illicit drilling, indulging Tehran's citizens and drought for the water problems.

I found it interesting that no one in Iran was blaming "climate change".

There must be no political gain in doing that in Iran.

Neighboring desert nations in the Middle East have avoided a similar situation through effective water management, long-term planning and investment in infrastructure to insure water flows.

Instead, Iran's leadership chose to spend billions of dollars on funding terrorism in the region and on its quest to build nuclear weapons.

It should also be noted that nuclear enrichment relies on large amounts of water for cooling, climate control and power systems. A large enrichment site can use around a million liters of water a day. No water means no enrichment. Centrifuges cannot operate without stable cooling and environmental control.

Iran's mullahs are not likely to admit it but in addition to the drought and water mismanagement, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Israel successfully targeted some of the key water pipelines serving the city and those nuclear sites.

Seeing water issues facing Iran I have to admit that I could not help but also think about the stories in the Bible where God exacts justice on those who deviate from his moral code or who wish to do harm to Israel.

Could that also be at play here?

The Bible is replete with stories of those who veered from God's word and had to confront drought and famine.

The Bible is also clear that God will protect Israel, and nations that seek to do Israel harm will find those efforts thwarted and will stumble and fall instead.

For example, Psalm 27:2 says, “When the wicked advance against me to devour me, it is my enemies and foes who will stumble and fall.”

Is it merely a coincidence that Iran and its mullahs are facing this catastrophe after it has funded terrorism against Israel for decades and fired 700 ballistic missiles and over 1,000 suicide drones in the past year?

I don't know,

However, it is food for thought as we see what is happening in Iran right now.

Perhaps Tehran will get the water they need.

Iran's President stated that the near term crisis could be averted if they got rain by the end of November.

That does look promising based on the current weather forecast.

Any precipitation in Tehran is not expected until over 10 days from now.

Source: https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/iran/tehran/ext

In the meantime, you have to wonder did the mullahs miscalculate in any number of ways to get to this point?

Sowing terrorism throughout the Middle East to undermine Israel?

Spending money on uranium enrichment rather than securing their water supply?

Attacking Israel with waves of missiles and drones?

Putting their faith in Allah rather than the God Almighty of the Bible?

These are very interesting questions given how events are unfolding in Tehran right now.

The Future of Public Education

I was in Charlotte, North Carolina recently and I could not help but notice the number of private schools I passed while driving around the southern area of the city.

A number of those schools were also Christian schools.

This map which is about five miles square provides some perspective.

SourceL Google Maps

50 years ago K-12 education was dominated by public and parochial schools.

Private schools were rare and generally catered to the very wealthy.

Homeschooling was almost non-existent because in most states it was illegal. Parents who did homeschooling were considered fringe fanatics.

It is estimated that only about 15,000 students were being homeschooled in the late 1970's.

The 1980's saw a number of court battles and legislative efforts to permit homeschooling,

By 1993, home schooling was legal in all 50 states.

Today 3.7 million students are being homeschooled.

The growth of homeschooling has expanded dramatically after Covid driven by curriculum dissatisfaction, safety concerns (drugs, bullying, school shootings) and the realization that children can learn more in less time than in traditional schools. 

This is not the only parent that came to that realization during Covid.

Th following may be a unique situation but it still speaks volumes coming from a public high school Math teacher.

Of course, for many parents homeschooling is not feasible due to work schedules and other issues.

However, the concern about what is being taught in public schools and the school environment has driven the increase in enrollment in private schools, particularly Christian schools.

Consider the growth in private school enrollment in North Carolina over the last 20 years.

Enrollment increased by 24% just between 2019 and 2023.

There was a reason I saw so many private schools on the southside of Charlotte.

Source: https://www.wfae.org/education/2023-08-01/nc-private-school-enrollment-has-grown-24-in-four-years-new-data-show

Almost every state is seeing declines in public school enrollments.

Oregon saw a decrease of 6.2% in public school enrollment between 2019 and 2023.

New York was down 5.9%, California and Colorado 5.2%.

Percent Change in Public School Enrollment Between Fall 2019 and Fall 2023
Source: https://nces.ed.gov/whatsnew/press_releases/12_5_2024.asp

Some of this is due to demographic trends as a result of falling birth rates and migration to other states.

However, there is a clear trend away from public schools.

The biggest change over the last 50 years has been the decline in Catholic school enrollments.

In the mid-1970's Catholic schools had almost 4 million students. Enrollment today is less than half of that. This has largely been the result of lower birth rates in the Catholic community,

Notably, 20-33% of enrollment of students in Catholic schools today are not Catholic.

The decline in Catholic school enrollment has been made up with the post-1970's "Christian school movement". These schools were practically nonexistent 50 years ago. They now have enrollments of 3.0-3.5 million students.

More and more parents have been opting for private, charter or homeschooling options as dissatisfaction with public schools has increased and greater school choice legislation has been enacted across the nation.

For example, a Gallup survey in July, 2025 found that only 24% of Americans were satisfied with the quality of public education in the nation.

It ranks right at the bottom of a long list of aspects of the country that people are dissatisfied about.

In fact, people are more satisfied with what they pay in federal taxes and the availability of affordable healthcare than they are with the quality of public education.

Consider as well that more than twice as many people are satisfied with the acceptance of gays and lesbian people in the nation as compared to the quality of education.

And yet, the media narrative is that the former is a much bigger problem for the nation than the latter.

 

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/656114/americans-state-nation-ratings-remain-record-low.aspx

This dissatisfaction has not been lost on politicians as there has been a large movement across the country to provide parents with school choice in forms such as vouchers, education savings accounts (ESAs), tax-credit scholarships, and tax deductions for private school tuition, homeschooling, or other educational options.

35 states have enacted some form of school choice legislation in recent years.

This had made private schools more affordable to a range of parents, particularly those on the lower end of the income scale.

One recent education think tank study predicts we are on the cusp of a major tipping point that will see public school enrollment crater between now and 2030.

That study by The Learning Counsel predicts that by 2030 public school enrollment will lose 16 million students compared to today---that would be about one-third of the current enrollment.

Source: https://thelearningcounsel.com/articles/the-future-of-k12-education-so-you-can-prepare-for-it-public-education-is-set-to-lose-16-million-enrollments-by-2030/

The study sees public school enrollments going from 89% of the total of K-12 education today to 50% in 2030.

Former public school students would end up in private schools or homeschooling.

In effect, the study predicts we will soon see the privatization of public education.

That sounds to me as something that is beyond the realm of possibility in that limited time frame,

However, the trends cited in the study are unmistakable.

The study argues that critical mass has been reached with the dissatisfaction with public schools, new school choice legislation, societal change and technology innovation.

As to the last two points, the study made this observation.

..there are the peculiarities of the Alpha Generation to consider with their immersion into screens, the economy, massive out-migration from cities, outside industry trends causing consumer demand for highly flexible and personalized arrangements in all things, plus technology innovations promising to change the entirety of education workflow and the organization of institutions through a myriad of AI and mechanisms.

The study also suggests that state and local governments are not likely to be successful in stemming the loss of the public school students. In fact, they might actually welcome it.

Policies and lobbying to avert the outcomes were considered in the predictions as highly likely to fail with the principal driver simple economics. State and local governments cause massive savings for themselves in the act of privatizing K12 education, saving upwards of 70% or more on all costs while retaining the same income from taxation. That is billions of dollars for most States annually that is becoming increasingly difficult to argue against as traditional public schools continue to fail in their mission of educating the American public as seen on abysmal literacy and math scores from so much of the population. Negative sentiment has reached a fevered pitch.

What the study seems to overlook is the emerging revolt against property taxes which is the principal method of funding schools in the United States.

Governor Ron DeSantis has made this a major issue in Florida 

Source: https://www.floridatrend.com/article/42514/desantis-wants-to-eliminate-florida-property-taxes-could-he-pull-it-off/

It looks like the issue may be headed to a vote by the people of Florida in November, 2026.

The issue is also gaining traction in my home state of Ohio.

A group is circulating petitions in Ohio for a constitutional amendment to abolish property taxes in the state.

Source: https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2025/10/27/ohio-group-seeking-to-abolish-property-taxes-says-it-has-collected-well-over-100000-signatures/

Why have property taxes suddenly become a big issue?

1. Property values have risen dramatically and this has resulted in vastly increased property taxes.

2. This has most particularly affected senior citizens who have no children in school.

3. However, it is also affecting younger families with children who believe that the public schools have failed them and are paying private school tuition or homeschooling in addition to property taxes supporting those failing schools.

If you combine these two groups you have a formidable number of voters who are going to be reliable supporters of the idea of repealing or reforming the property tax.

The public schools may find that any windfall that they believe may result from more students moving to private schools or homeschooling is illusory.

The simplest answer for public schools to avoid losing more students is to get their act together, get back to basics and improve the product and the experience they deliver. 

Their focus should be on taking the reasons away for why a parent would not want their child to attend the public school.

They need to prove the tax dollars spent on public education is a good value. 

The history of the last 50 years does not provide confidence that the tax dollars going to public schools have been well spent. 

Student performance has been flat at best while the numbers of administrators, principals and teachers have soared well past increases in student enrollment.

Where is the accountability?

Since many public school districts are controlled by the teachers' unions, this is usually not a priority. They seem to be more interested in serving the interests of teachers over students, making our public schools incubators for left-wing ideology and believing that all problems can be solved with higher taxes.

If you doubt that,  here is Randi Weingarten, the President of the American Federation of Teachers spending her work day recently picketing with striking Starbucks baristas in New York City.

Improving our public schools to avoid declines in enrollment (that will inevitably affect the jobs of her teacher members) does not seem to be of any interest to her.

With people like this in charge, the declining state of public education will continue.

And more private schools will dot the landscape of Charlotte and other cities along with millions and millions of homeschoolers.

All of this was unimaginable 50 years.

And yet, this is where we are.

Just Look At West Virgina

A common narrative is that homicide rates are driven by poverty and guns.

We often hear if we could just do something about poverty and limit the ownership of guns that we would not see the homicide rates we do in cities like Washington, D.C., New Orleans, Memphis and Chicago.

That makes a good talking point until you consider the state of West Virginia.

Just look at West Virginia to test that premise.

West Virginia is one of the poorest states in the union.

The poverty rate of 16.7% is the third highest in the nation.

Only Mississippi, Louisiana and New Mexico have more people living in poverty.

West Virginia is also in the top 3 states for gun ownership.

60% of households own a firearm.

What does West Virginia not have a lot of?

Young people.

The median age of the population of West Virginia is 43.

Only Maine has an older median age.

Source: https://www.instagram.com/p/C4OqATAtmZO/

West Virginia also has one the lowest percentages of African Americans in the nation.

Only 3.6% of the population is Black.

West Virginia also has one of the lowest rates of gun related deaths in the nation despite its high poverty rate and its levels of gun ownership.

West Virginia's rate of firearms deaths is about 1/7 of the District of Columbia and 1/5 of Louisiana and Mississippi.

It has far fewer gun related deaths than all southern states.

Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-gun-related-deaths-by-state/

When you simply look at the state of West Virginia the argument that poverty and guns drive homicides and gun violence starts to fall apart rather quickly.

I guess it will remain a mystery as to what drives gun related violence.

Does anyone have another theory based on the data?

The Shrinking Middle Class

We are hear a lot about "the shrinking middle class".

It is popular line for politicians and it is often accompanied by an argument that there is too much income inequality in the United States.

The truth is that the middle class is shrinking.

However, it is because a large share of the middle class has been moving upwards into upper class incomes.

The share of American households that earns $150,000 per year or more has increased from 5.2% of the population to 33.8% today.

And those in the lower income class have also been shrinking. More and more of those in the lower income class have moved to the middle class in the last 50 years.

There has been a decided trend in upward mobility in incomes over the last 50 years.

Source:https://x.com/DominicJPino/status/1988292199495463133

Yes, this data is adjusted for inflation.

It also is measuring household family income.

For additional context, consider the poverty rate in the United States.

Although there was no official measure, it is estimated that 80% of the population lived in poverty in 1900 and 60% in the 1930's.

The official poverty rate calculated by the Census Bureau in 2024 was 10.4% which is about as low as it has ever been.

Bear in mind that the official poverty measure (OPM) also does not consider non-cash benefits such as food stamps, Medicaid, housing subsidies and the child tax credit in its calculation.

These government benefits did not even exist before the mid-1960's.

Source: Source: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2025/demo/p60-287/figure1.pdf

It is true that there are more two-earner families today than there were in 1967. However, the percentage of two-earner households has not changed appreciably in the last 30 years. 

It also has to be considered that there are also items that the typical family spends money on that have increased faster than the general inflation rate.

That would include big items such as housing, medical care, child care and education costs.

Therefore, incomes do not go as far today as they did in 1967.

However, a big reason that incomes do not go as far as they did 30, 40 or 50 years ago is that our demands and expectations are higher in our daily lives.

There are many more ways we can spend our money.

There were no cell phone plans to pay for or streaming subscriptions.

Cars did not have power windows, air conditioning, moon roofs or navigation systems.

A number of families only had one car.  A three-car garage was almost unheard of except in the toniest suburb.

Houses did not have granite countertops and four bathrooms.

Look at how the size of the average new home has changed over the years.

From less than 1,000 square feet in 1950 to 2,500 square feet in 2021 until inflation and higher interest rates has forced home builders to downsize to maintain some semblance of affordability in the last couple of years.

Source: Google AI

The same thing has occurred with apartments.

This is an interesting graphic that I saw recently on how the 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom apartment that was the first home that Mrs. BeeLine and I lived in after we got married, has all but disappeared in Montgomery County, Maryland.

Before World War II that was all there was.

It is undoubtedly the same most everywhere else in the country.

Source: https://x.com/bobbyfijan/status/1986525803891552550

You can see how big a factor that expectations play in all of this by considering this survey that the financial services company Empower did last year on the "Secret to Success".

The research survey polled 2,204 American adults ages 18+ on their views on what they believed it took to be financially successful.

Look at the massive differences in what amount of annual income it was believed was necessary to be financially successful by generation.

Source: https://www.empower.com/the-currency/money/secret-success-research

This is how each generation looked at the same question regarding net worth.

Source: https://www.empower.com/the-currency/money/secret-success-research

The younger generations are also complaining that they can't possibly do as well as their parents did.

However, Federal Reserve data shows that Millennials and Gen Z are both earning greater inflation-adjusted incomes than previous generations did at the same ages.

Gen X has also done better although recent years have seen that income advantage declining.

Credit:https://x.com/roberthorrocks/status/1988762822248132697

Could there be a larger disconnect?

This might also explain why we see the dissatisfaction we do with younger voters who seem to believe that their lives would be better with socialism.

A Cato Institute survey earlier this year found that 62% of Americans under age 30 had a favorable view of socialism.

Even more troubling was the finding that 34% of those under age 30 had a favorable view of communism.

Who is going to tell these young people that there is no way they are ever going to earn $600,000 per year under communism?

The bottom line in all of this is there should be some place in the discussion of a shrinking middle class for consideration of the idea that the expectations of some might need to shrink a little bit as well.

We have had it so good for so long many people (especially the young) have never known hardship.

They do not understand delayed gratification.

They have not had to live through really tough times.

This post on X puts it in perspective.

I don't know anyone who would want to do this if they did not have to

However, at times you may have to. Or be forced to do it by circumstances.

Sadly, if young voters continue their infatuation with socialists and communists, they may find out how their grandparents or great grandparents lived.

At that point it will not be the middle class that will be shrinking, it will be everyone but the political class.

This fact has been proven true over and over throughout history.

The Pendulum of Politics

There are many in the wake of last week's election who have stated that Donald Trump and the Republican party are doomed.

They contend that the midterm elections next year will be a disaster for Republicans.

Yes, that is possible.

Anything is possible in politics.

However, I know of only a few truths in politics.

1. The party faithful of those not in control of the White House will always be more energized to vote than the members of the party in power.

2. So-called Independent voters are unaffiliated for a reason. They generally do not pay close attention to the issues or policies of candidates. They are persuaded more by personalities than policies. Politics to them is who is the President. They are also most likely to be low propensity voters.

3. Turnout is the most important factor in an election, Your voters have to be motivated to vote.

4. A year is an eternity in politics.

How do I assess the results of last week's election and what does it mean for 2026?

First, Democrats were much more energized to get out and vote as they were unhappy with the Trump victory last year and even unhappier to see the actions he is taking as President.

Therefore, Democrats were much more motivated to get out and vote.

This is not the first time we have seen this in New Jersey and Virginia. These were the races that received the most attention in this off year election.

Let's look at the history of some past elections in Virginia to see how the anti-White House vote affects the results.

For example, in 2008 Barack Obama won Virginia by 6 points.

In 2009, Republican Bob McDonnell won the governor's race by 17 points.

In one year the vote shifted an incredible 23 points to the Republicans.

In 2016, Donald Trump lost Virginia by 6 points to Hillary Clinton.

A year later Democrat Ralph Northam expanded that margin to 9 points over Republican Ed Gillespie---a shift of 3 points to the Democrats.

In 2020, Biden won Virginia by 10 points over Trump.

However, a year later Virginia elected Republican Glenn Youngkin by 2 points---a shift of 12 points to the Republicans.

This graphic shows that 12 point red shift between 2020 and 2021 was seen statewide.

 

In 2024, Harris defeated Trump by 6 points in Virginia.

It was predictable that we would see a blue shift in Virginia with Trump in the White House.

That is the ebb and low of politics.

Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 15 points representing a 9 point shift to the Democrats in Virginia.

The 15 pont margin Spanberger received is getting a lot of attention but it should remembered that the blue shift between 2024 and 2025 was actually smaller than the red shifts we saw in Virginia in 2021 and 2009.

You can also seen in the graphic that the biggest shifts in 2025 were in the D.C. metro area which was undoubtedly affected by the large number of government employees impacted by the government shutdown.

Turnout is also a major factor in off-year elections.

Unaffiliated and independent voters are usually less likely to vote in off-years than in Presidential years.

Combine this will fewer Republicans who are motivated to vote and you get the results you did in Virginia.

The enthusiasm gap is real.

Consider the fact that although Spanberger won she actually received fewer votes than the Democrat candidate who lost in 2021!

Republican Sears also got almost 500,000 votes less than Youngkin did in 2021 and almost a million votes less than Trump in 2024.

There are enough Republican votes out there to win in Virginia but it requires a highly motivated electorate to do so.

Some argue that Virginia is a purple state but the numbers suggest that it is pretty reliably blue.

No Republican Presidential candidate has won Virginia since G.W. Bush did in 2004. No Republican has been closer than four points since that election. Mitt Romney lost to Obama in 2012 by that margin.

New Jersey is even bluer than Virginia and New York City has not voted for a Republican for President since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Therefore, I do not necessarily see the 2025 election results predicting disaster for Republicans in 2026.

In addition, despite a media narrative that incessantly talks about President Trump's declining approval ratings, he actually has a higher net approval for his Presidency than either Barack Obama and George W. Bush did at this same point in their terms according to the RealClearPolitics composite average of polls.

I doubt that you have heard this on the evening news.

The declining approval ratings of Obama during 2013 and Bush in 2005 did ultimately lead to Congress changing hands the following year. 

Declining ratings for who is in the White House is always a warning sign for upcoming mid-term elections.

However, the 2026 election will most likely be determined by events and issues that are yet to unfold.

Only one thing is certain from this year's results and that is if Trump's voters do not go to the polls the Republicans will lose next year. 

The biggest warning sign for Republicans involves the enthusiasm gap.

Republicans must be able to energize their voters and get them to the polls next year.

Donald Trump will not be on the ballot and no politician in my lifetime has been better able to motivate his voters to show up at the polls.

The question remains whether he can get the electorate moving back towards the Republicans next year when he is not on the ballot and no one will ever vote for (or against him) again.

This X post says it all.

https://x.com/TobyCharleston/status/1986157395689590963

The final truth is that the pendulum of politics is always moving back and forth.

It truly is the starter's guide to American politics.

That has been true for a long time.

This and That---November 11, 2025 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Nothing For Something

Why did the Democrats shut down the federal government for the last 41+ days?

I am still trying to figure that out.

We have all heard the term about getting "Something for Nothing".

It seems that the result of the federal shutdown for Democrats was getting "Nothing for Something".

The Republicans in the House passed a clean continuing resolution that would have totally funded the federal government at current levels based on existing law.

That included funding for SNAP benefits, the U.S.military and all the rest.

It did not include the additional Obamacare subsidies passed as a temporary measure during Covid that Biden and the Democrats determined would end at the end of this year.

The Republicans did not establish the December 31, 2025 expiration date---the Democrats did.

Due to the filibuster rules the Senate was unable to get enough Democrats to support the funding to keep the government open. 

Initially, the Democrats demanded $1.5 trillion in funding to restore healthcare funding for illegals and other items to attempt to get Trump and the GOP to cave. When that tactic failed their demand was to extend the Obamacare subsidies for which they set the expiration date originally.

More than 40 days later there are many federal employees who have been laid off, many more have not been paid including air traffic controllers and TSA personnel and SNAP benefits have been curtailed.

Eight Democrats crossed over on Monday night and voted to allow government funding to be restored.

What did Democrats get in return?

Nothing. 

Everything they got could have been had without the government shutdown.

Federal employees back to work.

SNAP benefits restored to the end of this fiscal year.

A vote on the Obamacare subsidies in December.

All of it was for nothing.

It was all theater and drama meant only to try to harm Trump and to boost Democrat turnout in last week's election.

The Dems did get higher turnout but for the most part they won where they were going to win anyway in New York City and blue states like New Jersey and Virginia.

The far left in the party is very unhappy with the capitulation and wants to primary the Democrats who broke ranks.

Credit: https://x.com/mitchellvii/status/1987829089726599391

However, do you think it was coincidence that of the seven Democrats and one independent who voted yes on the CR, two, Senators Dick Durbin of Illinois and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, are retiring. The remaining six are not up for reelection until at least 2028.

It is yet another reminder that most of the people in D.C. are not there to serve the people's interests.

Their first priority is to serve themselves.

Pelosi To Retire---Is Investment Fund Management Next?

The official announcement was made last week that Nancy Pelosi is not going to run for re-election for her House seat representing San Francisco.

Perhaps she believes that she and her husband can make a go of it in the investment management business.

After all, they took a atock portfolio that was valued at between $610,000-$785,000 in 1987 when she first took office and turned it into a $134 million portfolio today according to The New York Post.

Source: https://nypost.com/2025/11/08/us-news/nancy-pelosi-made-130-million-in-stock-profits-in-her-37-years-in-congress-a-profit-of-16930/

In the last 10 years, Pelosi has seen a 25.5% annualized return on her stock portfolio.

For context, here are the stock returns of the very best stock fund managers in the United States over that same period.

For additional perspective, the Pelosi returns are double those of Warren Buffett's (considered the best investor of the last 50 years) stock returns over the last decade.

It will be interesting to see if Nancy and her husband can sustain that same performance after leaving office.

My suggestion is that if she goes into the investment management business that she makes sure to include this disclaimer in BOLD lettering.

"Past performance does not guarantee future results".

Sports Gambling

Sports gambling has been in the news recently as both current and formers NBA players  and two major league baseball players have been indicted on federal criminal charges involved with sports betting and money laundering.

Source: https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/current-and-former-national-basketball-association-players-and-four-other-individuals

Source: https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/two-current-major-league-baseball-players-charged-sports-betting-and-money-laundering

It should come as no surprise considering the growth in legalized sports gambling over the last several years.

From $7 billion in 2018 to $149 billion in 2024. It is surely higher in 2025.

What I found interesting is how sports betting compares to other forms of entertainment.

More money is wagered on sports than is spent on movies, books, concerts and sports tickets COMBINED!

Source: American Gaming Association data via Grok

Of course, some of those sports bets pay off but those who gamble on sports still lose $14 billion per year

to the major sports books. The House edge of 4%-10% insures that most who wager will lose over time.

That $14 billion is still close to the $15 billion that is spent annually on sports tickets.

In my view, all of this proves why sports gambling was considered to be a bad idea and was illegal for most of the last 100+ years.

However, when the sports books are making almost as much money from those gambling as the team owners are from selling tickets, it is not likely to be changing any time soon.

In fact, it will get much worse and we will undoubtedly be seeing more headlines like those above.

Student Loan Debt

Since the forbearance period on student loan debt was terminated earlier this year, after being place for almost four years, the number of loans that are seriously delinquent has exploded.

Over 14% of student loans have been delinquent for at least 90 days.

 

That is more than double the number that are delinquent on their credit card debt and almost five times those far behind on their car loans.

 

For those age 50+ the serious delinquency rate is 20%.

It is 15% for those in their 40's.

This all reveals the mathematical result when payments are on loans are ignored and compounding interest does the rest.

Of course, Joe Biden and the Democrats made matters worse by telling these student loan borrowers that they were going to cancel their debt.

The four years of Covid forbearance was the perfect time for these borrowers to pay off their loans.

Everyone received Covid assistance and interest was not accruing. Payments were not required but there was no law that said payments could not be made.

Of course, very few did that.

Why pay on a loan you are told that is going to be canceled?

Now that payments are required again most found other uses for the money that they should have been using to pay their student loan debt.

The pain of this student loan debt will only compound further with credit rating reductions and possible garnishment of wages and Social Security to pay the debt.

Bankruptcy is not an option as federal law prohibits it being used to discharge student loan debt.

Expect much more pain ahead for those with student loan debt.

Equal Justice?

Is there anything approaching equal justice in Washington, D.C.?

Remember all those who were charged and convicted in Washington, D.C, surrounding the events of January 6th, 2021. Some were grandmothers who merely walked through the U.S. Capitol.

This included a number of individuals who were waved in by the Capitol Police through open doors.

They were branded as insurrectionists.

Fast forward to the case of the man who hit a federal agent in Washington, D.C. with a Subway sandwich after he had already berated the officer this summer for being in the city as part of President Trump's crackdown of crime in the nation's capitol. The man was actually an employee in the Justice Department.

Source: https://abc7.com/post/doj-employee-throws-sandwich-federal-agent-pam-bondi-fires-alleged-washington-dc-subway-thrower-sean-charles-dunn/17546943/

Around 11 p.m. on Sunday, Dunn approached a group of CBP agents, pointed a finger in an agent's face and swore at him, calling him a "fascist," a police affidavit says. An observer's video captured Dunn throwing a sandwich at the agent's chest, the affidavit says.

Why are you here? I don't want you in my city!" Dunn shouted, according to police.

Dunn tried to run away but was apprehended, police said.

A Washington, D.C. grand jury refused to indict the man on felony assault charges as was requested by the U.S. Attorney for D.C.

He was then tried on a misdemeanor assault charge and was found not guilty by a D.C. jury last week.

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/US/dc-sandwich-throwers-misdemeanor-assault-case-nears-closing/story?id=127227869

His defense attorney argued that throwing the sandwich was protected free speech and compared it to a child throwing a stuffed animal during a temper tantrum.

The D.C. jury selected from a pool of registered voters who only gave Donald Trump 6% of the vote in the 2024 election.

Is that a fair and impartial jury?

Let's compare.

Someone walking through the U.S. Capitol after being waved in by the Capitol Hill Police is guilty of insurrection.

However, physically assaulting a federal officer is protected free speech.

This is equal justice?

 These are dark times for the rule of law in our country if this is considered equal justice.