There are many in the wake of last week's election who have stated that Donald Trump and the Republican party are doomed.
They contend that the midterm elections next year will be a disaster for Republicans.
Yes, that is possible.
Anything is possible in politics.
However, I know of only a few truths in politics.
1. The party faithful of those not in control of the White House will always be more energized to vote than the members of the party in power.
2. So-called Independent voters are unaffiliated for a reason. They generally do not pay close attention to the issues or policies of candidates. They are persuaded more by personalities than policies. Politics to them is who is the President. They are also most likely to be low propensity voters.
3. Turnout is the most important factor in an election, Your voters have to be motivated to vote.
4. A year is an eternity in politics.
How do I assess the results of last week's election and what does it mean for 2026?
First, Democrats were much more energized to get out and vote as they were unhappy with the Trump victory last year and even unhappier to see the actions he is taking as President.
Therefore, Democrats were much more motivated to get out and vote.
This is not the first time we have seen this in New Jersey and Virginia. These were the races that received the most attention in this off year election.
Let's look at the history of some past elections in Virginia to see how the anti-White House vote affects the results.
For example, in 2008 Barack Obama won Virginia by 6 points.
In 2009, Republican Bob McDonnell won the governor's race by 17 points.
In one year the vote shifted an incredible 23 points to the Republicans.
In 2016, Donald Trump lost Virginia by 6 points to Hillary Clinton.
A year later Democrat Ralph Northam expanded that margin to 9 points over Republican Ed Gillespie---a shift of 3 points to the Democrats.
In 2020, Biden won Virginia by 10 points over Trump.
However, a year later Virginia elected Republican Glenn Youngkin by 2 points---a shift of 12 points to the Republicans.
This graphic shows that 12 point red shift between 2020 and 2021 was seen statewide.
In 2024, Harris defeated Trump by 6 points in Virginia.
It was predictable that we would see a blue shift in Virginia with Trump in the White House.
That is the ebb and low of politics.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 15 points representing a 9 point shift to the Democrats in Virginia.
The 15 pont margin Spanberger received is getting a lot of attention but it should remembered that the blue shift between 2024 and 2025 was actually smaller than the red shifts we saw in Virginia in 2021 and 2009.
You can also seen in the graphic that the biggest shifts in 2025 were in the D.C. metro area which was undoubtedly affected by the large number of government employees impacted by the government shutdown.
Turnout is also a major factor in off-year elections.
Unaffiliated and independent voters are usually less likely to vote in off-years than in Presidential years.
Combine this will fewer Republicans who are motivated to vote and you get the results you did in Virginia.
The enthusiasm gap is real.
Consider the fact that although Spanberger won she actually received fewer votes than the Democrat candidate who lost in 2021!
Republican Sears also got almost 500,000 votes less than Youngkin did in 2021 and almost a million votes less than Trump in 2024.
There are enough Republican votes out there to win in Virginia but it requires a highly motivated electorate to do so.
Some argue that Virginia is a purple state but the numbers suggest that it is pretty reliably blue.
No Republican Presidential candidate has won Virginia since G.W. Bush did in 2004. No Republican has been closer than four points since that election. Mitt Romney lost to Obama in 2012 by that margin.
New Jersey is even bluer than Virginia and New York City has not voted for a Republican for President since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.
Therefore, I do not necessarily see the 2025 election results predicting disaster for Republicans in 2026.
In addition, despite a media narrative that incessantly talks about President Trump's declining approval ratings, he actually has a higher net approval for his Presidency than either Barack Obama and George W. Bush did at this same point in their terms according to the RealClearPolitics composite average of polls.
I doubt that you have heard this on the evening news.
The declining approval ratings of Obama during 2013 and Bush in 2005 did ultimately lead to Congress changing hands the following year.
Declining ratings for who is in the White House is always a warning sign for upcoming mid-term elections.
However, the 2026 election will most likely be determined by events and issues that are yet to unfold.
Only one thing is certain from this year's results and that is if Trump's voters do not go to the polls the Republicans will lose next year.
The biggest warning sign for Republicans involves the enthusiasm gap.
Republicans must be able to energize their voters and get them to the polls next year.
Donald Trump will not be on the ballot and no politician in my lifetime has been better able to motivate his voters to show up at the polls.
The question remains whether he can get the electorate moving back towards the Republicans next year when he is not on the ballot and no one will ever vote for (or against him) again.
This X post says it all.
Interesting insights Scott and agree it’s a long way from the midterms in the world of politics. I live in the Commonwealth and 2 things stood out to me. Sears never had a chance; it’s often said the Lt Governor in VA is the loneliest job in politics; a single 5 year term. She ran a boring campaign and Republicans stayed home. Second is the shade of blue in VA has never been darker. I live in Loudoun County that was solid red when I moved here 25 years ago. Now every seat in the House of Delegates in the county is Dem. The last few went down a few weeks ago. My prediction for next year is you are going to see a WAVE of Democratic Socialists primary out many incumbent Dems, mostly on the House. What happened in NYC was no fluke. If this doesn’t fire up the GOP base to turn out I don’t know what will.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the perspectives on the ground in VA. What you have seen in Loudoun County is the same in many suburban areas. It is hard to understand what some of those soccer mom's are thinking.
DeleteIf you recall 5 years ago McAuliff made the blunder of all blunders in his debate by saying parents did not have a say in their kid’s education. Youngkin pounced on this. This cycle shifted to “stopping Trump” by any means. I have never seen such an acute case of TDS than the soccer moms of LoCo. School board meetings have become a laughingstock of woke-ism; anything but the education of their children. I recently asked a neighbor “what does it tell you when the ONLY people complaining about the shutter of the DoE is Randi Weingarten and the unions?” I was met with scorn. You can’t out-debate that kind of mentality.
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