Friday, January 16, 2026

Something To Dance About

I wrote recently about the increasing frustrations of Zoomers towards Boomers.

I titled that blog post "Boomer Backlash".

A big complaint is that younger Americans have been priced out of the house market due to rising prices.

They believe that Boomers got rich on houses they bought in the 1970's and 1980's which are now out of their reach financially.

I referenced this post on X as an example of the house envy of some Zoomers.


Link: https://x.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1992266496874357142



It is true that since 1975 a median price home has increased almost exactly 10-fold---from $41,200 to $411,000.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

It is a large increase over 50 years.

That is why many believe that buying a house is the best path to wealth.

However, the prices of houses have paled in comparison to the increase in stock market values.

Check out this chart from the Wall Street Journal that puts it all in context.


Source: The Wall Street Journal


Over the last 50 years the S&P 500 market index is up 75-fold!

Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data


Stock prices have risen over seven times as much as house prices.

It makes sense to buy a home for the comfort of you and your family.

However, investing in stocks has been proven over the years to be the easiest method for most people to accumulate wealth.

The reality is that the Boomers cited above in the X post were most likely not celebrating the sale of the house they bought in 1991.

They probably had just checked their brokerage account statement and were celebrating that they bought the following stocks with a single $1,000 investment in each company over their lifetime.

In total, $5,000 invested over time that grew to almost $50,000,000.


1981  Home Depot                $22,510,000

1985  Nike                             $13,950,000

1995  Monster Beverage       $11,430,000

2005  Tesla                                 $346,000

2015. Nvidia                               $272,000


The example above also shows the power of compounding

All of these were great stocks to own.

However, as great as Tesla and Nvidia have been over the last 10 or 20 years, it is nothing compared to the compound power that comes from your money working for you for 30, 40 or 50 years.

With compounding working on your behalf, you do not even have to pick the best stocks. You just have to be invested in the stock market so it can work its magic.

For example, over the last 50 years, houses have appreciated at an average of 4.5% per year while the broad S&P 500 has averaged just about 12%.

What do you have today if $50,000 had been invested in 1975 a house vs. the S&P 500 at the same time?

House       $451,632

Stocks     $14,450,109

Forget the house.

Those Boomers are more likely to be dancing and celebrating their stocks.

Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Dead Men Walking?

Questions abound on what is going on in Iran?

Iran has been cut off from the outside world as the Islamic regime has blocked all forms of communication to the outside world after protests have continued across Iran for the past couple of weeks

Before the blackout, there were scenes from most major cities in that country with masses of protestors marching and setting fire to mosques and government buildings.

The crowds seemed to have been motivated by seeing President Trump's move against Maduro and the Venezuela regime.

In past protests, Iran has been able to quell protests with arrests and targeted killings of the organizers.

That approach did not seem to work this time.

The regime apparently used the communication blackout to come down with even more brutal force.

Various reports indicate that anywhere from 3,000 to 10,000 protestors have been killed.

President Trump previously warned Iran's leaders about crossing that line.



Reports out of Iran yesterday were that Iran was going to start hanging protestors who had been arrested in addition to those that the regime might have killed on the streets.


Source: New York Post

The Iranian regime seems to be crossing a very bloody red line with Trump.

There are reports that Middle East allies such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have told Trump they would prefer that the United States not intervene militarily in Iran.

There also has to be concerns about retaliation by Iran sleeper cells that might have infiltrated the United States' open border if the regime is directly attacked.

Trump has to be hoping right now that the Iran regime falls by itself.

That looks to be increasingly likely but how long will it take?

Can Trump afford to wait as thousands are massacred before that happens?

It appears he is not inclined to wait much longer. This was posted late yesterday afternoon by Trump.




The mullahs and Iran's regime leaders are dead men walking almost any way you look at it right now.

Exhibit One is the complete collapse of its currency.

Iran's rial is now essentially worthless vs. the Euro.


It is worth nothing vs. the U.S. dollar.



Perhaps the Iranian regime gets support from China or Russia and can trade in those currencies.

However, for all intents and purposes, if your currency is worthless, the leadership are dead men walking.

How does your economy function going forward?

Domestic trust is gone with the ruthless killings and failing economy.

You have no currency convertibility.

Who is going to be willing to import anything into Iran with the prospect they will not be paid?

No fuel, food, medicines or other critical items of daily living coming in.

The Black Market will become the economy.

The regime will lose control over prices, logistics, payrolls, and most importantly, loyalty.

Is the military and the IRGC (the ideological military strongmen) going to remain loyal with no promise of being paid with anything that has stable value? 

A wheelbarrow full of rials is not going to buy very much.

When those who you rely on to protect you stop getting paid in anything but worthless paper, there is a good chance their loyalty may not be what you think it was.

How does the regime retain control with no viable currency, no supply chain and no muscle for support?

They can't.

The currency might have collapsed.

However, the underlying message the currency market is telling us is that the Islamic state is what has really collapsed.

It is hard to see how they recover.

This is especially true if the stories of all the killings and hangings are true.

How do you retain any trust or credibility with the people of Iran or the international community when you shed that much blood to remain in power?

It becomes another North Korea at best. However, with no nuclear weapons.

The people of Iran and the rest of the world can thank President Trump for that.

The Mullahs may hang on for another day, week, month of year.

However, they are dead men walking.

The only question now is whether they collapse from within from the weight of all of this?

Or the United States and/or Israel provide the final nudge.

May God Bless the Iranian people.

Hope is within sight but the road immediately ahead will not be easy.

Monday, January 12, 2026

Boomer Backlash

I have noticed an increasing level of hostility and anger directed at Baby Boomers by younger generations on social media recently.

The theme is that Baby Boomers had everything go there way during their lifetimes.

They were able to buy cheap houses and got rich from real estate along with rising stock prices.

Many are receiving Social Security benefits even if they have other sources of income.

They were not saddled with a lot of student loan debt.

It is so unfair!

Let's call it Boomer Backlash.

I am not sure how real it all is.

It would not surprise me if some of it is coming from Bots originating in Russia or China attempting to create more discord and division in the United States.

They are already pitting Black vs. White, rich vs. poor and men vs. women.

Why not pit the Zoomers vs. the Boomers?

Here are a couple of examples of the Boomer Backlash I have seen on X over the last month or so.



This is the reaction of one Zoomer when  confronted with the data that shows that Zoomers are actually earning more in inflation adjusted dollars than previous generations did at the same age.

He says Zoomers are much more productive and create more economic value than Boomers at the same age.

I guess that it is partially true. Boomers did not have emails, word processors, GPS or an iPhone in their hand to look up everything they ever needed to know at that age. 




Here is an interesting take from a generation that has been slow to marry and have any children themselves.




Here is another one with house envy.


https://x.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1992266496874357142


Yes, those summer internships really paid well in 1991!

I recall that a lot of internships in my day did not pay anything.

That would be illegal today.

Of course, let's not forget that most Boomers were well into their 30's in 1991.

The youngest Boomers would have been 27 in 1991.

It seems like a lot of those on social media bashing Boomers do not have a very good historical perspective.

That is particularly true in the following post on X that believes that no generation won the genetic lottery like Boomers.

He seems to believe that everything went their way in every way.


https://x.com/BoringBiz_/status/2004054150984749117


Through his invention of a mythical John born in 1946 he shows everything going his way.

John avoided World War II.

John was able to pay for college by working for minimum wage at an ice cream shop in high school.

He somehow believes that John was smart and decided to contribute to Social Security in those early years as if paying FICA was optional.

John gets a job as an engineer out of college and is able to buy a house with four years of savings.

He somehow believes that Medicare being enacted in 1965 was a massive windfall for John to pay for his retiree health costs.

He believes that the invention of the 401(k) and IRA provisions in the Internal Revenue Code allowed John to build up a massive stock portfolio to go with the appreciation in value of his house.

He has John buying an investment property after the Great Financial Crisis taking advantage of low interest rates created by the Federal Reserve that provides him even more real estate appreciation.

He concludes his story this way.


What did not get into his story?

What about the John who graduated college in 1968 (22 years after 1946),  immediately got drafted and found himself in Vietnam where he was killed in action in 1969?

His name is now on a wall in Washington, D.C.

That John did not win the genetic lottery.

There were many other John's that served in Vietnam who came back to the United States to be cursed and spit on for serving.

Those Boomers did not win the genetic lottery.

After they went through that Boomers sat in lines miles long to gas their cars up during the Arab oil embargo in 1973-74.

That was followed by having to live through a 9% inflation rate in 1978, 13.3% in 1979, 12.5% in 1980 and 8.9%in 1981.

Paul Volcker and the Federal Reserve finally solved the inflation problem but it took an 18% federal funds rate in 1980 (it is 3.5% today and many think that is too HIGH!) to take the teeth out of inflation.

However, those high interest rates resulted in a 11% unemployment rate in 1982. The unemployment rate reached 13% in Ohio where I was living at the time.

Many John's found themselves laid off or having to look for a new job or career in the early 80's.

If John wanted to buy a house in October, 1981 he was faced with an 18.6% 30 year mortgage rate.

No Boomers thought they won the genetic lottery when they faced these challenges.

It is also nice to talk about the wealth building possibilities of 401(k) plans and IRA's if you start investing early.

However, in the 1980's and 1990's when those retirement alternatives were first made widely available, most Boomers expected to retire with a pension from work just as their parents did.

They did not take advantage of those early compounding periods because they were relying on the promise of a pension payment for life.

However, as they got into their mid-40's to mid 50's they saw many employers discontinue their pension plans in favor of 401(k) plans. These plans are great if you have 40 years to accumulate your retirement nest egg.

They are not quite so advantageous when the accumulation period is only 20 years.

Today you generally only find pension programs with government jobs.

Baby Boomer John also saw his FICA tax rate increased substantially in the 1980's and his retirement age  increased in order to qualify for full benefits

His father paid a FICA tax rate of 1%-4% most of his career on a very low maximum earnings base.

For example, in 1970 the maximum employee Social Security annual tax contribution was $328.

In 2000, it was $4,724.

In 2015, it was $7,347.

The parents of Boomers made a nice return on their Social Security contributions.

That is not the case with the average Boomer today

A median income Boomer with an average life expectancy is receiving at best a 1%-2% real return on their Social Security contributions. That is half of the historical long-term real return on government bonds and only a fraction of long term real return on stocks (7% on large caps).

Boomers at high income levels are actually in negative territory on their returns on Social Security contributions due to the progressive benefit formula that favors lower income workers.

As far as Medicare goes, it is a nice cushion for Boomers. However, it was a much better deal for their parents who had to pay Medicare taxes for only a portion of their careers staring in 1965.

However, Medicare is hardly free as the Zoomers seem to believe as they promote the idea of Medicare for All solving all healthcare issues..

As I wrote recently, the average Boomer couple with Medicare Part B, Part D and Medigap coverage is likely paying close to $1,000 in premiums per month for their "free healthcare".

And this is after a lifetime of paying Medicare taxes while working.

It is true that the last 40 years have seen uncommon gains in home values and stock and bond value due to declining interest rates over that period. The wind has been at the back of those who were investors.

However, many Boomers missed the gains due to career disruptions and job changes.

That is why you see headlines like this in The Wall Street Journal.


Source: The Wall Street Journal


It tells the story of Lynn Lee who at age 65 is dealing with the fourth layoff of her life.

"After every layoff, Lee found something new. Now, she was at retirement age. But like many older Americans with little savings and heavy financial burdens, retirement was out of the question."

It seems it is always easier to look at someone else and say they got all the breaks.

Or to believe that you can't get ahead because someone else is holding you back.

Every generation faces challenges.

I fully understand the frustrations of many young people today. 

College, housing and healthcare has gotten a lot more expensive since the Boomers were young.

However, is it a coincidence that each gas seen more and more government involvement and intervention over the years? And yet, young people seem to want the government controlling even more of the economy.

Do they not understand the correlation?

I understand their frustrations but they need to put everything in better context.

The reality is that younger generations of Americans today have probably faced far fewer challenge than any in history.

There is no question that is the case compared to Baby Boomers.

And we don't even have to bring up those in the Silent Generation who had to live through both the Great Depression and a World War.

A tough job market today? Try finding a job with 11% unemployment.

Expensive homes? Yes they are costly. However, I bet that prices would come down a lot with 18% mortgage rates.

Struggling with student debt? No one forced anyone to go to college or to major in Gender Studies,.

Boomers typically did not go to college if they could not afford to do it because there were few student loans available. It is also true that college would not be so expensive today if it were not for the availability of that student loan money.

Zoomers should pay heed to some lessons that are eternal. 

Put aside your anger and envy.

Forget about bashing Boomers and take what life gives you and make it better.

Job 5:2 (NKJV) “For wrath kills a foolish man, And envy slays a simple one.”

Proverbs 14:30 (NKJV) “A sound heart is life to the body, But envy is rottenness to the bones.”

Zoomers will see their time come. The current challenges can be overcome with faith, fortitude and flexibility in dealing with a future that undoubtedly offers more possibilities and potential than was ever available to any Boomer.

Life does not get better by bashing someone else.


Friday, January 9, 2026

A Pretty Good Week of Work


He started the week by ordering U.S. forces to arrest and bring Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife to the United States to face charges involving narco terrorism.

This was successfully accomplished but it meant that Trump would have to be able to force the remaining inner circle to bend to his will, reject their authoritarian path, sever ties with China, Russia, Iran and Cuba and build their economic future with the United States until democratic elections could be held.

Trump is off to a good start.

Human rights organizations and others have been asking for this for the last 20 years.





Trump's actions in Venezuela has also resonated elsewhere.

The President of Cuba, seeing that their support in Venezuela has been cut off, is suddenly talking differently.

He suggests that maybe their problems are due to Cuba's Communist Party rather than the United States.

Remarkable.



Seeing what has occurred in Venezuela has also provided new energy to the Iranian people to attempt to bring down the authoritarian Islamic regime.

Link: https://x.com/NiohBerg/status/2009334633633403391

 

Meanwhile, in the United States there was a lot of positive economic news.

The U.S, trade deficit just came in with its best numbers since 2009.



Compare where the number was in October to where it was when Trump took office.




Imported goods have been falling while exports have been increasing.

At the same time, U.S. productivity just surged by 4.9%---the best reading in nearly six years.




All of this is having an effect on the GDP numbers that measures overall national economic activity.

The Atlanta Fed just revised its forecast for 4th quarter GDP upwards to +5.4%.

The "Blue Chip Consensus" from a month ago was that this number for the quarter would be less than 1%.




If this holds, the GDP results by quarter for 2025 would be as follows.


Is there anything Joe Biden did in his four years that could even come close to what we have seen from Trump in just this first week of 2026?

What else can be said but what a difference a year makes.

Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Home And Not Alone

What do you think is the most common occupation in New York?

Retail worker?

Restaurant worker?

Government employee?

It might surprise you that the top occupation in New York is home health and personal care aide.

Source: Grok


Over twice as many New Yorkers are employed as home health aides as the next highest occupation----Retail Salespersons.

Almost 600,000 people are employed as home health aides in New York.

That is equal to 6% of the entire workforce.

Who pays the bill for most home health aides in New York?

Medicaid. 

In other words---the taxpayer.

New York spends over $115 billion per year on Medicaid.

On a per resident basis, New York spends 24% more than any other state in the nation and 77% more than the national average.


Source: https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/new-yorks-medicaid-spending-rate-remains-the-highest-of-any-state/

To understand how large the amount of Medicaid spending is in New York, compare it with Florida.

Florida has a larger population than New York (estimated 24 million in FL vs. 20 million in NY at the end of 2025) but Florida is only spending $35 billion on Medicaid.

Florida is spending 70% less for Medicaid services even though its population is 20% higher!

This is despite the fact that Florida has an older population (42.7 median age) compared to New York (39.4). That should result in a higher number of those who are disabled or who are in need of long-term care and do not have the money to pay for it.

How can the Medicaid costs be so much higher in New York than the rest of the country?

Part of it is the cost structure and cost of living in New York. Health services cost more in New York than many other locations in the United States.

A second reason is that New York elected to broaden the eligibility for Medicaid for residents making up to 250% of the federal poverty level. Only two other states do this---Oregon and Minnesota (wouldn't you know?).

Consider the Medicaid enrollment numbers in New York City in 2024.

Almost half of the city is on Medicaid receiving free health care. That number is almost 2/3 in the Bronx.


Credit: https://x.com/vjeannek/status/2005292438576132304


Add to that one more reason why New York's top occupation has become home health and personal care aides.

New York Medicaid allows family members to be paid for providing home health services.

That allows eligible recipients to choose, hire, and direct their own caregivers, including most family members and friends.

There is very little vetting of the caregiver beyond filling out a form and the Medicaid payments begin.

Here are the key points about that program as summarized by Grok.

Source: Grok

In theory, this is a good idea.

It is much more cost effective to care for a disabled or elderly person in a home setting rather than in a nursing home of other institutional setting.

However, it is an open invitation for fraud.

There is the potential for fraud on two levels that can play out in this situation

You first get someone qualified with some type of disability that provides them with disability income and Medicaid benefits.

You then get a family member or two to be put on the Medicaid rolls as a home health aide to take care of them. For round the clock care you might need three of four family members to be on the Medicard payroll.

The entire family lives off of the Medicaid fraud.

This woman outlines what is going on in New York.


The Medicaid fraud in Minnesota (much of it involved in home health care) is undoubtedly small compared to what is going on in New York just looking at the dollars in play.


You may recall that Kamala Harris wanted to extend home health services for those on Medicare and not limit it to Medicaid.


Here is what a health policy expert said about home health care and Kamala's proposal back in October, 2024 in an article in Forbes magazine.

Can you imagine what that would have cost and the potential fraud and abuse that would have been possible if it also applied to Medicare?

New York is not the only state in which home health care and personal care is the leading occupation. 

10 states also have that same distinction.


Is it a coincidence that 8 of these 10 states voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election?

West Virginia and Pennsylvania were the exceptions.

The populous states above with the huge number of home health aides has contributed to making home health and personal care aides the leading occupation (by numbers) in the United States!

Source: Grok

What kind of country have we become when home health aide is the leading occupation in the United States?

At various time over the last 100 years it was farming, manufacturing worker, clerical worker, technical worker or sales person.

What kind of political leaders would permit the level of fraud that is undoubtedly going on with Medicaid and home health?

It is just one more example of how the best of intentions becomes subverted by fraud, waste and abuse in government programs.

When you have an open checkbook and almost no one with a vested interest in oversight, you can be assured that fraud, waste and abuse will follow.

It appears that the innovation pictured below can't come soon enough.


Source: https://www.azorobotics.com/News.aspx?newsID=15579

Help, Elon, Help!

Monday, January 5, 2026

Venezuela and Trump---Knowns and Unknowns

Invading a foreign country and arresting its President and his wife in the middle of the night and extraditing them to the United States is a bold move.

Its aftermath also poses substantial risks in that the leadership vacuum that follows (no matter how illegitimate the prior leadership was) can easily lead to chaos in the country.

It brings to mind the words of the late General Colin Powell who cited the "Pottery Barn Rule"  before the 2003 Iraq War.

"You break it. You own it."

In other words, once you invade and overthrow a government, you are responsible for rebuilding and governing that country, which is usually significantly more difficult than getting the bad actors out.

I don't know how things will work out in Venezuela.

I do know that Nicolas Maduro and his inner circle were very bad actors.

I do know that the Venezuelan people have suffered enormously since the Socialists took over the country in 1999.

Over 70% of the population is living in poverty.

The inflation rate is more than 500%.


25 years ago, when the Socialists took control of Venezuela, it had a higher GDP than Poland.

Poland chose capitalism and the free market.

Venezuela went with the collectivism that Poland had been living under since the end of World War II. 

Look what happened next.


Venezuela used to be the wealthiest country in South America.

It is now the poorest.


An estimated 8 million people (20% of the population) have fled Venezuela in just the last decade for either economic or political reasons.

I don't know how Democrats can be so opposed to bringing a Venezuelan criminal into the United States to face justice when they had no problem in bringing the worst criminal elements from Venezuela into our country during the Biden years?

This is one of the funniest memes I saw on X in the aftermath of the U.S. action.



Note that it actually came from the official X account of the Department of Homeland Security.

A lot has changed in 12 months!

I also know that Venezuela, due to its economic ills, has become increasingly dependent on Russia, China and Iran for survival.  That reliance has also meant increasing security risks to the United States due to their presence and influence in that country.

In fact, when the U.S. operation took place, the Venezuelan Vice President was in Russia and Maduro had hosted a Chinese delegation at his palace that evening.`

A succession of U.S. Presidents (G.W. Bush, Obama, Biden) all talked tough about Venezuela but stood idly by and did nothing about the the corruption, chaos and increasing Communist influence, investment and intervention in that country.

This tweet from Biden in June, 2020 did not age well.

What exactly did Biden do as President about Venezuela even while Maduro was known to have subverted the will of the people with another stolen election besides sending a strongly worded letter or tweet?

Donald Trump backed up his talk with action.

A final accounting lays ahead to determine whether this was a master stroke or a misstep by Trump.

One final thing  I do know is that you cannot achieve dramatic change and results without action.

And you cannot be a great President unless you are not afraid to be great.

Most Presidents never become great because they are typical politicians. They try to play both sides. They are afraid of offending anyone. They don't take strong stands. They are risk averse. They don't put themselves out there to succeed...or fail. In short, they are afraid to be great.

I do know that Donald Trump is not afraid to be great.

Look at the first three names on most lists of the greatest Presidents. 

One thing they share is that they were not afraid to be great.

George Washington was a man of privilege and prosperity. It would have been easy to forget about leading a Revolutionary Army against the British. He had it made. He had very little to gain personally by revolting against the British. He could have easily seen his life cut short on the end of a noose for treason and sedition at the hands of the British.

When Washington led his troops to victory over the British he could have also become an American monarch. At a minimum, he could have been President for the rest of his life is Xi Jinping as attempting to do in China. He walked away after two terms.

George Washington was not afraid to be great. He put it all on the line and he expected little in return.

You can say the same thing about Abraham Lincoln. He could have negotiated with the Confederacy after the southern states seceded from the union. He could have decided that it was too controversial to push for the 13th and 14th amendments. He was not afraid to take a stand. Many criticized his actions.

Abraham Lincoln was not afraid to be great. We now appreciate that courage and greatness.

Franklin Roosevelt took office as the U.S. economy was in ruins and as Nazi Germany and the Japanese Empire sought to expand their borders and enslave millions of people. 

Roosevelt responded aggressively to the needs of the American people with his New Deal. At times he went too far as with his attempt to stack the Supreme Court. However, he was not afraid to take action.

FDR also did not hesitate to act when the war was brought to him. He also ignored the Washington precedent on serving two terms when he thought that the country needed continuity in those turbulent times.

FDR is also best remembered for his famous line on not being afraid in his first inaugural address.

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."


Franklin Roosevelt was not afraid to be great.

Greatness does not follow when taking the easy road. It only graces those who are not afraid of the challenge on the hard road.

Success is never assured even you step out with boldness. Trump may fail bigly in his attempt to remake and renew Venezuela for its people and the security of the United States. 

However, he is not afraid to be great. That in itself is a rare commodity. 

Keep that in mind as you listen to those who criticize Trump.

That includes Democrats who claim that Trump's actions in all of this were somehow illegal.

Joe Biden made sure that was not the case.

Biden is the one who stripped Maduro of head of state immunity which made the arrest lawful.


Link: https://x.com/amuse/status/2007883330608386539


It does not seem any Democrats remember that now.

In conclusion, I do know you cannot be great unless you are not afraid to be great. Trump's actions with Maduro have shown once again he is not afraid to be great.

I don't know if the Venezuelan people can realize their full potential by also showing they are not afraid to be great.

Living for over 25 years under the yoke of what the new New York Mayor calls the "warmth of collectivism", it will not be easy for Venezuelans to embrace what Mamdani refers to as the "frigidity of rugged individualism".


https://x.com/litnewsnet/status/2006857106369163562


However, that is what will be required to restore Venezuela and ratify the actions of Trump.

Change will not happen overnight, and Trump may have to work with elements of the current government and military to assure stability in the near term on the way to free and fair democratic elections in Venezuela.

Is Venezuela willing to take the opportunity Trump and the United States has provided them to show that they are not afraid to be great?

Only the history that is yet to be written knows the answer to that question.

Friday, January 2, 2026

Food Prices In Context

There is still a lot of talk about high food prices.

I hear about it every time that Mrs. BeeLine goes to the grocery store.

As a meat lover, recent prices are especially hard for me to digest

Ground beef over $6/lb.


Sirloin steak is over $14/lb.


From everything I read beef prices will be worse in 2026.

The beef cattle herd is the smallest it has been in 70+ years.

The inflation spiral during the Biden years drove up feed and other prices which caused cattle ranchers to cull their herds, 

Market forces will probably result in more supply eventually but it will take a couple of years to have meaningful effects. A new calf takes time to mature and it will likely be 2027 before we see any relief in beef prices due to the forces of supply and demand.

We can see what increased supply has done to eggs prices over the last year.

The Biden administration ordered the killing of millions of chickens over concerns about bird flu.

Over 50 million hens were "depopulated" in late 2024 and early 2025.

Lower egg production caused egg prices to soar to over $6/dozen in March, 2025.



This was the primary cause of soaring egg prices earlier this year.

However, since March, the average price of eggs has fallen from $6.23/dz to $2.86---a 54% decrease.

Prices have fallens as a result of an increase in egg production.

Almost 1 billion additional eggs were produced last month compared to February, 2025.

Source: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795695/ckeg1225.pdf


Egg prices should get even better in the next few months as wholesale prices dropped to .61/dozen on December 29, 2025. That is as low as it has been in the last five years.


Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us



Just as there has been relief in egg prices, I would expect moderating grocery store prices in 2026 in that gasoline prices are trending lower and transportation costs influence food prices at every stage of the supply chain. 

I have cited the fact before in these pages that there is an estimated 400 gallons of fuel used each year in feeding each American.

Lower fuel prices will work to moderate food prices just as higher fuel costs caused prices to spike.

We might be seeing that effect with bananas already. Bananas have pretty consistently been priced at between $.55-$.60 per pound over the last couple of years at my local Kroger. On New Year's Eve they were $.49.

I would not expect overall prices to come down as was the case with eggs but the cost pressures of producers, distributors and retailers should not be as acute as they have been.

Despite all the news about high grocery store prices, and our own price shock at times, the fact is that food prices relative to incomes are still near the lowest it has ever been.

Mrs. BeeLine does not believe it but the numbers suggest otherwise.

This is the Federal Reserve chart that compares food costs to median household income over the last 40 years.



The total amount spent for food out of the share of disposable personal income in the United States shows the same trend according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service.

In 1950, food at home consumed 15% of the typical family's budget. Today it is 5%.

Total food expenditures as a share of personal disposable income was 20% in 1950. It was 10.4% in 2024 down from 11.3% in 2023.

What has really changed over the years?

More of a family's household income today is spent eating out than food at home.

However, as a % of the family's disposable income eating out has only modestly increased over the last 60 years.

Source: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-expenditure-series/interactive-charts-food-expenditures


There is a lot of talk about how expensive it has become to even eat at McDonald's.

However, compared to the rest of the world, Americans still have real advantages.

This fact is revealed by looking at The Big Mac Index which is a price index developed by The Economist magazine in 1986 that compares the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac cheeseburger in various countries.

This index provides a quick and easy way to do country-to-country comparison of purchasing power parity (PPP) and currency values all over the world. Since the product is standardized worldwide it makes simple to compare local costs by country.

That tool can also be used to determine how many Big Mac's can be purchased annually with the average annual incomes in various countries around the world.

On this measure, incomes in the United States make the Big Mac more affordable to the populace than any other country in the world. 

The average American can buy 13,601 Big Macs annually. Switzerland is second with 11,826.

The average Mexican's income is barely sufficient to buy 2,000 Big Macs in a year.


Source: https://econlife.com/2025/09/comparing-wages/

It is easy to understand why Mrs. BeeLine and most everyone else wants to complain about food prices today.

I shudder myself passing the meat counter or walking into Chick-fil-A.

However, the fact is that most everyone in history, and anyone living anywhere else in the world today, would gladly take the food prices (and incomes) that Americans are complaining about.

It is just one more example of why "context is everything when assessing anything".