Dead Men Walking?

Questions abound on what is going on in Iran?

Iran has been cut off from the outside world as the Islamic regime has blocked all forms of communication to the outside world after protests have continued across Iran for the past couple of weeks

Before the blackout, there were scenes from most major cities in that country with masses of protestors marching and setting fire to mosques and government buildings.

The crowds seemed to have been motivated by seeing President Trump's move against Maduro and the Venezuela regime.

In past protests, Iran has been able to quell protests with arrests and targeted killings of the organizers.

That approach did not seem to work this time.

The regime apparently used the communication blackout to come down with even more brutal force.

Various reports indicate that anywhere from 3,000 to 10,000 protestors have been killed.

President Trump previously warned Iran's leaders about crossing that line.

Reports out of Iran yesterday were that Iran was going to start hanging protestors who had been arrested in addition to those that the regime might have killed on the streets.

Source: New York Post

The Iranian regime seems to be crossing a very bloody red line with Trump.

There are reports that Middle East allies such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have told Trump they would prefer that the United States not intervene militarily in Iran.

There also has to be concerns about retaliation by Iran sleeper cells that might have infiltrated the United States' open border if the regime is directly attacked.

Trump has to be hoping right now that the Iran regime falls by itself.

That looks to be increasingly likely but how long will it take?

Can Trump afford to wait as thousands are massacred before that happens?

It appears he is not inclined to wait much longer. This was posted late yesterday afternoon by Trump.

The mullahs and Iran's regime leaders are dead men walking almost any way you look at it right now.

Exhibit One is the complete collapse of its currency.

Iran's rial is now essentially worthless vs. the Euro.

It is worth nothing vs. the U.S. dollar.

Perhaps the Iranian regime gets support from China or Russia and can trade in those currencies.

However, for all intents and purposes, if your currency is worthless, the leadership are dead men walking.

How does your economy function going forward?

Domestic trust is gone with the ruthless killings and failing economy.

You have no currency convertibility.

Who is going to be willing to import anything into Iran with the prospect they will not be paid?

No fuel, food, medicines or other critical items of daily living coming in.

The Black Market will become the economy.

The regime will lose control over prices, logistics, payrolls, and most importantly, loyalty.

Is the military and the IRGC (the ideological military strongmen) going to remain loyal with no promise of being paid with anything that has stable value? 

A wheelbarrow full of rials is not going to buy very much.

When those who you rely on to protect you stop getting paid in anything but worthless paper, there is a good chance their loyalty may not be what you think it was.

How does the regime retain control with no viable currency, no supply chain and no muscle for support?

They can't.

The currency might have collapsed.

However, the underlying message the currency market is telling us is that the Islamic state is what has really collapsed.

It is hard to see how they recover.

This is especially true if the stories of all the killings and hangings are true.

How do you retain any trust or credibility with the people of Iran or the international community when you shed that much blood to remain in power?

It becomes another North Korea at best. However, with no nuclear weapons.

The people of Iran and the rest of the world can thank President Trump for that.

The Mullahs may hang on for another day, week, month of year.

However, they are dead men walking.

The only question now is whether they collapse from within from the weight of all of this?

Or the United States and/or Israel provide the final nudge.

May God Bless the Iranian people.

Hope is within sight but the road immediately ahead will not be easy.