The General and His Soldiers

I was invited to speak about my blog and observations about the current political environment at a local Republican party club meeting in May of 2016.

This was right at the point that Donald Trump looked to have wrapped up the votes needed to be the Republican party nominee for President that year.

The meeting was attended by most of the local, county and area Republican officeholders.

In short, officeholders that were almost all beholden to the Republican establishment.

They all viewed themselves as the Republican party.

I saw the discomfort in most of them that night as they attempted to process the fact that the outsider, Donald Trump, was going to represent the Republican party in the 2016 election.

Keep in mind that the Ohio Governor at the time, John Kasich, had been the last to defiantly march on as a virulently anti-Trump candidate despite the fact that Trump won primary after primary election.

A main theme of my talk that night was raising the question as to whether "The Fourth Turning" had set the stage for the political success of Donald Trump.

You can read my blog post "Has The Fourth Turning Brought Us Trump" written on May 10, 2016 if you are interested.

I pointed out the uncanny list of themes that the authors of the book The Fourth Turning had predicted would make a successful political candidate as we entered that cycle of history.

Keep in mind that The Fourth Turning was published in 1997.

Those themes closely matched Trump's campaign rhetoric two decades later.

These were the winning trends from a political standpoint for a politician in The Fourth Turning according to the authors, Neil Howe and William Strauss.

• Calls to close the gap between rich and poor
• Reverse the decline of the middle class
• Expand children's programs relative to senior programs
• Restore an ethic of personal responsibility
• De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies
• Promote traditional values
• America will become more isolationist than today in it unwillingness to coordinate with other countries 
• America will be less globally dependent than it is today with smaller cross-border trade and capital flows
• The economic role of government will shift toward far more spending on defense and public works than on elder care and debt service.

I then stated this.

Look at some of the words above and see if you don't agree that in some ways it seems as if Trump has a keen understanding of where we are and what people are looking for. 

It is as if he is looking ahead and the Republican establishment can only see what is behind them.

"Decisive action".  There is very little gray in Trump's outlook.

"Assert public authority."  Think about Trump's views on eminent domain.

"Aggravate rather than alleviate societal pressures." Trump's views and statements on immigration.

"Reverse the decline of the middle class."  His major voting target is forgotten working class voters.

"De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies."  His call to consider the de-funding of NATO.

"Promote traditional values."  "Make America Great Again." 

"More isolationist."  Very consistent with his views on the Middle East.

"Less globally dependent".  His attacks on NAFTA, China, Japan on trade.

"Defense and Infrastructure."  Two of Trump's favorite topics in every speech. 

When I went over all of this in my speech I could see the obvious unease among the Republican officeholders in the room rise even further.

At the time, the Republican establishment in Ohio and elsewhere were saying that Trump did not represent the Republican party.

The Republican officeholders in that room were soon going to have to decide whether they were on or off the Trump Train.

There was real risk in choosing whether they were with him or against him especially considering that their Governor was against him. The decision they made could end up being a career-ender. 

Seeing all of this I told them I understood the difficult position they were in.

However, I reminded them of one important fact.

The people are sovereign in our system. Their power is absolute  Unfortunately, too many people don't believe it. The simple fact is that politicians have no power unless the people provide it.

Laws that do not have public backing do not survive over the long term. Lawmakers who make laws that people do not support do not stay in office very long. Politicians who do not do the will of the people soon need to find other employment.

The reality was that the Republican officeholders did not determine what the Republican party stood for---the people who vote do.

I told them that I did not know whether Trump would win or not in November.

The only thing I knew for sure was that if he won the Republican party would change with him whether they liked it or not.

And that would be the case until the people decided they no longer backed Donald Trump and his agenda.

As it turned out, no truer words were ever spoken to that group.

Trump ended up winning Ohio in the general election by 8 points in 2016.

He proved he not only had a majority of Ohio Republican voters but an absolute majority of all Ohio voters supporting his "Make America Great Again: policies.

He won by 8 points again in 2020 and by 11 points in 2024.

Nobody hears anything about John Kasich anymore. 

Trump has transformed the Republican party in his own image.

The transformation is even more profound than what we witnessed in the Reagan Revolution.

Consider what has just transpired over the last month.

Five incumbent Republican state senators who voted against a House redistricting plan that would have favored Republicans were defeated in primary elections when Trump endorsed the challengers.

A sixth incumbent Republican defeated a challenger by a mere 3 votes in which a recount has been requested.

Incumbent Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy placed third in a Republican primary to Trump-endorsed Julia Letlow and challenger John Fleming who will face off in a runoff election next month.

Cassidy had voted to convict Trump in the impeachment related to January 6th.

Republican 7-term Congressman Thomas Massie from Kentucky was defeated in a primary election against Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein.

Massie had invoked anger from many for voting against major Trump agenda items including the Big Beautiful Bill and the Border Wall.

Finally, four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn was defeated in the Texas Republican Senate primary last night after Trump endorsed Ken Paxton.

The headline from The New York Times this morning.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/26/us/politics/texas-republican-senate-cornyn-paxton.html

Paxton won 64%-36% despite reportedly being outspent 10:1.

That alone tells you the value of Trump's endorsement.

Some argue that Trump should not be interceding against members of his own party.

He should not be using his power to oust members of his own party.

They are missing the point.

Trump is powerless by himself in these situations.

The voters have all the power.

They were not happy that these incumbents did not support Trump or his agenda.

Trump has transformed the Republican party in the last 10 years since he entered politics in a way few  could have imagined was possible.

He did not do it himself.

Trump understood better than anyone that people were not looking to see "business as usual' in Washington.

However, Trump can only deliver a message. The muscle comes from people who vote.

Trump is like a General. He can put together a battle plan but it will only succeed if the soldiers carry out the plan.

Unlike many other countries, in the United States the people do not have not to just submit to their leaders. They have the power to do as they choose.

Those soldiers also do not have to fear being punished, court martialed or shot if they choose to not align with the plan

In the end, Trump will only succeed on the issues when the people have his back.

Trump may be the General but the voters are the King.

The loss of those who crossed Trump sends a message to all of the other Republicans.

Cross him and his agenda and you put your political future at risk.

The last month shows that Trump still has the support of the vast majority of Republicans.

However, a recent Fox News poll shows that Trump's overall approval among Republicans has dropped to 80% amid a slide with all voters to a new low of 36%.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-economic-pain-deepens-disapproval-trump-hits-new-high

Underlying that disapproval is 77% of all voters in that poll saying the economy is in bad shape.

That poll finding is supported by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey that recently hit its lowest level ever.

I wrote in my last blog that no one should take the economic sentiments in those polls seriously.

They are not based on current economic reality.

The polls are really only measuring political sentiment.

There is little doubt that Trump has suffered as a result of the Iran conflict thus far.

Gas prices up. Inflation ticking up as a result.

The on again, off again messaging on whether there is a deal or no deal with Iran only creates further confusion and lack of confidence in voters.

The only saving grace for Trump right now is that voters in almost all polls view the Democrats just as unfavorably as the President.

Trump's overall net favorability according to the Real Clear Politics  composite average is -18.5% compared to -18.8% for Democrats. Republicans generally are -17.1%.

The voters do not view any politician favorably right now.

We also are almost six months from the midterm elections.

Six months is an eternity in politics.

A lot can happen between now and November.

The only thing that is certain is that people are sovereign in our system.

They will make the final call on the type of leaders they want whether or not they are the leaders they need.

The bigger question right now might be who wins if the voters are unhappy with all of their choices?

Balancing Rights and Responsibilities

"Things tend to work out best when people have to live with the consequences of their own behavior"

or said another way

"Things tend to work out poorly when the consequences of our actions spill over onto other people"

This is probably one of the most insightful statements that I have ever seen. When I first read it I copied it and put this simple principle up on the wall to be reminded of it every day.

However, as simple and obvious as it is, it is amazing how often we ignore what is really one of the most important principles of economics.

I saw this statement in a book by Steven E. Landsburg who teaches economics at the University of Rochester who goes on to say,

Whether you're blowing leaves or discarding litter, having children or having sex, saving or spending, smoking or drinking, setting fires or reporting them-your actions have costs and benefits.  As long as you feel all the costs and benefits, you'll tend to get the quantity right.

You'll drop the right number of banana peels, or have the right number of children, or choose the right number of sex partners. But, if you feel only the benefits while someone else feels the costs, you'll tend to overindulge.  And conversely, if you feel only the costs while someone else feels the benefits, you'll under indulge.

It makes a lot of sense doesn't it?

You know how it works. 

When you are out to dinner with friends and you have agreed to split the check equally, do you order the $10 dessert?  Of course you do.  Your skinny friend who does not like desserts is going to pay part of your cost. You win. He loses. Your friend also stops going to dinner with the group in the future.  He is tired of the decisions of others spilling over on him.

The bottom line is that spillovers cause bad outcomes.  If someone wants to pollute their own swimming pool, feel free. However, when the sludge spills over the edge of the pool and into the community stream that we all share they should be prepared to pay for the damage.

In my view one of the biggest problems we have in the country today is our inability to draw the line between rights and freedoms on the one hand and consequences and costs on the other.  Where do individual rights end and where does the the public interest begin?

First, we have too often ignored the primary principle that people should have to live with the consequences of their own behavior.  You fail to take advantage of the free public education that everyone has access to in this country and can't get a job.  That's ok, we have welfare assistance.  

You have a child out of wedlock. That's ok, we will give you money to pay for the child. 

You buy a flat screen tv rather than health care insurance.  That's ok, just go to the emergency room and someone else will pay your medical bill. 

You took out a gigantic student loan to pay for college and don't want to pay it back? That's ok, will we forgive it.

At the same time, each of these actions is spilling over onto other people who were attempting to live their life responsibly without infringing on others. The person who studied and went to school, married, had children and bought healthcare insurance rather than the flat screen tv ends up paying these bills as well as their own.

A great example involves whether someone riding on a motorcycle should be required to wear a helmet. I'm all for giving someone the freedom to feel the wind blowing through their hair.  However, what happens when they are in an accident and suffer brain damage and need medical care for the next thirty years?  

Who is going to pay for that?  If it is me through my health care premiums or higher taxes I don't feel quite the same about that person's individual rights and freedom as I did before.

We have been living in an era over the last generation where individualism has reigned supreme in the United States.  Respect for the individual and their rights has been preeminent over the collective good in most instances.  It has been more about ME than WE.  

A good example are the federal court decisions over the last 15 years that have invalidated state laws  requiring welfare recipients to take a drug test before they can qualify for public assistance.  The courts have ruled that broad-based and "suspicionless" drug test requirements for welfare benefits are an "unreasonable search".  You can only require drug testing if there is reasonable suspicion they are on drugs.

Bear in mind that the majority of private sector employees today cannot get a job without submitting to a pre-employment drug test.

How does any of this make sense?  In effect, we know that most of the people in the private sector are clean, drug free and paying taxes.  However, those people are not allowed to even ask whether the people they are supporting have even a chance of getting off welfare at some point in the future.?

After all, if you can't pass a drug test, you most likely are not going to get a job and get off welfare since it is a condition of pre-employment with the majority of employers.

Contrast this with some of the laws in the country of Singapore.  You can be arrested for not flushing the toilet in a public restroom or spitting anywhere.  They don't want germs spreading and spilling over on other people. It is also illegal to sell chewing gum in Singapore.  Who wants to walk down the street and look at all that gum on the sidewalk because someone just threw it down with no regard to the public good? Take a look down on any sidewalk in a major city in the United States and you will see what I mean.

Credit:  TheCityReview.com

Where do we draw the line?  What is the proper balance between liberty and tyranny that balances individual rights and the public interest?  

We saw this conflict come together in a big way during the Covid pandemic. However, in that case, tyranny quickly took over with vaccine mandates, mandatory masking, school closings and all the rest.

It might have made sense if there had a true scientific basis for all it. However, as I wrote over and over again in these pages, more often than not there was no basis to override personal rights to the extent it was done in the name of the public interest.

All of this takes on added significance in an era of AI and surveillance cameras wherever you look.

In Australia, cameras at street corners peer into vehicles to determine whether your seat belt is on or you  are in contact with your cell phone.

A seat belt that is attached but not properly fit over your shoulder brings a $500 fine in the mail. 

A cell phone in your lap costs you a $1,200 fine even if you were not using it.

These are real examples I heard in a recent visit to Australia.

Have the Aussies taken it too far?

I think balancing rights and responsibilities will be a major question of the next decade in the United States. It is at the core of many of our big issues today.  Gun rights.  Drug Legalization. Immigration. Abortion. Health Care. Welfare.

Religious freedom is one of the bedrock rights in the United States.

However, does that give Muslims the right to blast the Islamic call to prayer over loudspeakers in New York City?

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ab3_MOeF7U4

Or Muslims taking over Times Square to pray?

Source: https://www.bssnews.net/news-flash/178084

Is this a religious observance or a political statement?

Our largest failing over the last half century in this country is not coupling individual rights with individual responsibility.  You simply cannot have a well functioning society where these two are not in alignment. There have to be clear incentives for people to do the right things and even clearer disincentives to prevent people from doing the wrong things.

William Strauss and Neil Howe predicted in their book, The Fourth Turning, that the 2020's would usher in a new cycle in which public interest would be on the ascendancy and special interests and individualism would wane.  

They predicted more calls for personal responsibility and civic duty.  Conformity with core values would become more important.   

Perhaps this will lead to better alignment between individual rights and responsibility.  Unfortunately, the lessons of history often tell us this only comes about when society has got its back to the wall and it does not have much choice.  You either have got to focus on WE or there will be no ME left.

In the meantime, I only ask for two things.  If you are a fellow citizen, don't spillover on me.  If you are the government, don't tread on me.  If we can get both of these right, we are all going to be ok.

Charting Your Financial Life

When I lecture on financial planning to young adults I make the point that their life is roughly divided into four quarters---you could also consider them to be four seasons.

The first quarter (roughly 18-22 years) you are generally relying on someone else for your financial needs. Someone else is paying your rent, making sure you are clothed and have food in your mouth. They are trying to make sure you are being educated. They are paying your cell phone bill.

In this spring season of your life, someone else is paying for the seeds, fertilizer and water. Your main responsibility is to grow to be a productive human being and be prepared to support yourself over the next three quarters (or seasons) of your life.

The second and third quarters (the next 40-45 years) are your working years. You have to find a means to support yourself financially. Sometime in the second quarter, most will marry. Most should be doing it early in the second quarter. Marriage is highly advantageous economically as it allows you to share expenses, divide labor and tasks. Being married is a huge benefit in financial terms. Two cannot live cheaper than one but they can live much cheaper than two singles.

Being newly married, with both individuals having incomes, is the golden age of your financial life. It is as if you are at the peak of the summer season.

Some refer to this as the DINK period---Dual Incomes, No Kids.

However, soon thereafter, little people have a habit of arriving on the scene. With them come needs. Lots of needs. Needs that have to be met with money.

That requires you to take some of your income and begin satisfying those needs just as was done for you. Children need food, clothes and other things. Over time, they need (and want) more and more. You are now not only supporting yourself but children as well.

The financial needs of children is pointed to as a big reason for the declining fertility rates around the world.

In an agrarian society, children are an asset. The labor they can contribute to a family farm or unit is much greater than the costs of having them.

This is not true in more advanced economies. Their labor is not an asset and the financial resources to support them are significantly greater than it was living on a family farm 100 years ago.

During that summer season, and into the fall season, you also begin to realize that at some point winter will come. You do not want to keep toiling in the field and laboring from sunrise to sunset. You will want to retire. You may even be forced to retire before you want to or your health may prevent you from continuing to work. You need to have a financial cushion for these contingencies.

In that last quarter of life (which very likely can be 20-25 years) you have to live off savings accumulated during your working years. In effect, you need to store some of your summer work and fall harvest for the coming winter months.

It used to be said that those in the four quarter of life had to live on a fixed income.

That was true when most retirees relied on a fixed monthly pension and Social Security in the fourth quarter of their life.

However, there are few workers in the private sector who can now expect a pension in retirement. Beyond Social Security (which is now indexed for inflation) no one is really living on a fixed income in that fourth quarter.

It is more appropriate to now state that new retirees have to live out their fourth quarter on FIXED ASSETS.

The amount that they were able to save and invest in their working years through 401(k) or IRA plans at the time of their retirement, and the income that might result from those investments, has to be enough to sustain them for the rest of their lives. For most, there will no more income coming in from their work. Their retirement years are dependent on what those fixed assets will produce after they retired.

Rising home values and a surging stock market have made those fixed assets grow for most retirees over that decade or so.

However, what does the financial life look for those in the fourth quarter look like if those fixed assets begin to decline rather than advance? 

That is another reason that everyone needs a financial cushion. Those fixed assets are not easily replaced when you are in your 70's or 80's.

Charting your financial life looks something like this if you put it in graphic form.

In the first quarter of life, someone else is taking care of your needs.

In the second and third quarter of life, you have to take care of yourself and any children that come along.

At the same time, in addition, you need to be putting enough savings away in order to support your needs in your fourth quarter---your retirement years.

People wonder why it is so hard to get ahead financially?

Think about what I just described.

During your working years, you are effectively supporting three generations with one income.

Yourself.

Your children.

Your future self.

That is a little sobering.

It would not be possible without the power of compound returns which allows small amounts to grow to enormous sums given an investment return on the savings and enough time.

Credit: https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/article/journal/MAY14-why-investors-need-understand-shape-compound-growth-curve

However, compound returns do not reveal their real power until after about 20 years of compounding.

Most people do not wake up and smell the coffee until their 40's.

At that point their runway is too short to get their retirement assets where they need to be by the time they are in the fourth quarter.

In their 40's they are also caught in the middle supporting children which may include buying another car, paying for college expenses and all the rest. 

That is why I tell young people to save until it really hurts. They typically respond that they don't have the means to do it. They say they are just getting started. They have student loan debt to pay. They will put something away in the future.

It never happens. It doesn't get easier. It gets harder.

When you are young and single, you are only taking care of yourself. It won't be long until you realize what it is like to really be caught in the middle.

Here is a graphic that really captures what it is like to be caught in the middle. This is a chart I saw in ValueWalk  a few years ago that provides a data visualization of the U.S. population sorted by current status in the labor force.

Red are those not in the labor force.

Yellow are those unemployed.

Purple are those who are employed outside of the Armed Forces.

Credit: Jeff Desjardins, Visual Capitalist

This really makes the point about how those who are working in the second and third quarters of their life are really caught in the middle. The workers are surrounded on all sides---by children on the left hand side, by seniors on the right hand side and by those not working on top of them. They are paying for their kids, for their future retirement and, at the same time, a healthy amount of taxes to support those who are not working in the economy for some reason. Oh yes, they also are working to support themselves.

Everyone needs to eat. They need a roof over their head. They need health care. It falls to those in the middle of that graph to provide it all in our economy. It is probably appropriate that the color of the working employed is purple in that chart. They deserve a purple heart for their efforts.

Looking at all of this is why I typically counsel young married couples to save at least 50% of what they make. Ideally, they should be saving all of what the higher income spouse earns and live off of the income of the lower income spouse.

Not many take my advice but the reality is that they will never have a better time to save. Once children come along it gets much more difficult to save and as time goes on the advantages of compounding are not as advantageous.

Speaking of marriage, here is another data visualization of the marital status of Americans visualized by age.

Credit: Jeff Desjardins, Visual Capitalist

You can see from the chart that it is between the ages of 25 and 33 that most Americans are getting married. Marital status peaks between the ages of 45 and 55.

You know the old saying, "Make hay while the sun is shining".

It is also true when it comes to your financial life.

For most, that is going to be before children are born or after they are no longer living in their parent's basement.

However, a dollar saved early compounds over many periods. One saved late does not have the same leverage. That is why you should start early and you need to save the most when you are young. It is the easiest time to start turning The Wealth Wheel to your advantage.

Keep this lesson in my mind in considering your own financial life or use it to point a child or grandchild in the right direction for charting their financial life.

The Best of BeeLine---2024

Here is a Top 10 List for the Best of BeeLine for 2024. The first five are the most popular posts I wrote during the year based on the number of views. The second five are a few of my personal favorites out of the 143 blog posts I wrote during the year. 

If you missed reading these "Best of BeeLine" posts the first time around, here is another opportunity to get on "the shortest route to what you need to know" to start 2025 off right. 

You might also consider forwarding this post to friends who might appreciate a blog that tries to put some of the complicated issues of the day in context informed with data and facts. I enjoy writing BeeLine but it is a lot easier to sit down, research and write when I know more are reading what I write. I don't promote or advertise this blog. New readers almost always come from one of you passing it along to someone else.

2024 saw the highest level of readership of BeeLine since I first started writing the blog 14 years ago. Readership has more than doubled over the last two years. Thanks to all of you who contributed to that growth by forwarding blog posts to others, posting a link on social media or recommending BeeLine to a friend.

If you want to make sure you don't miss a post, consider putting yourself on the BeeLine email list. You will receive an email of the blog whenever I put up another post. 

You can sign up in the upper right hand corner on the web page (Link to web home page is here). You need to be viewing the web version to do this as this feature does not show up on your phone. You will receive a follow-up email (from Follow.it) that you will need to confirm to begin delivery. 

The Best of BeeLine-2024 list is below with pull quotes from each of the posts to give you a better idea about what is contained therein.

Thank you to all my loyal BeeLine readers and a Happy New Year to each one of you

The Best of BeeLine---2024

The Most Popular Based on Views

Truth and Lies 

(January 26, 2024)

The problem for Fauci and the NIH was they had been funding the gain of function research at Wuhan but had purposely not sent the funding request for the required exception to the gain of function ban that was in place.

All of this explains a lot of what followed.

Fauci and the NIH were living in fear of it being found out they were funding the work on the coronaviruses at Wuhan.

They also knew that the purpose of the work was to create a virus that was more contagious and deadly than was currently in place in nature.

Knowing all of this, it undoubtedly caused Fauci and the NIH to overreact and recommend the draconian response to the virus they did knowing that it was totally at odds with established protocols in dealing with a pandemic.

Fear and guilt had to be enormous motivating factors in what Fauci and his brethren did next.

They could not leave any stone unturned in the Covid response knowing what they appeared to have unleashed.

The Illusion of Prosperity

( January 29, 2024)

It is hard not to conclude that all of this borrowing and government spending is just providing an illusion of prosperity in the GDP numbers.

Everyone in the mainstream media and the D.C. bureaucracy thinks everything is great.

It seems that only everyday Americans realize that something is seriously amiss.

Beware the illusion of prosperity.

The Sad Story of Springfield, Ohio

( August 5, 2024)

(Ed. note---this was written over a month before Springfield, Ohio made headlines in the Trump/Harris debate)

In the last five years an estimated 15,000-20,000 Haitian migrants have settled in Springfield, Ohio.

Over 15,000 Haitians move into a city of 58,000 within a few years time?

I was shocked recently when I heard this fact about what has happened to Springfield.

I don't know how any city could absorb the influx of an increase in its population by almost one-third within five years without causing major disruptions to the quality of life of its citizens. 

It is even worse when the influx involves people with no shared language, culture or values.

How is any city supposed to deal with this?

J.D. Vance VP Nominee

( July 17, 2024)

We hear a lot that the deck is stacked against many people in this country.

There is absolutely no doubt that some people have head starts in life and others have to overcome some significant disadvantages. That has been true for time immemorial.

J.D. Vance was not someone who had a head start in life. His family situation placed him at a significant disadvantage to many others.

However, his life story shows that the American Dream is still alive for those who are not willing to accept their situation and are able to receive a helping hand from others along the way.

Crowded Out

( April 1, 2024)

Do you get the sense that the liberals want to rid Easter of Christ as much as they have been trying to do for years with Christmas?  Happy Holidays!!!

The calendar has gotten very crowded.

However, it is also clear that there are way too many who are attempting to crowd Christianity out of America. 

It is happening every day and in every way.

What is really sad is that a lot of those who are leading the charge are our elected leaders.

Five of My Personal Favorites

Mars, Venus and Planet Earth

( January 31, 2024)

The data also seems to suggest that as the young women in a society move to the left politically the young men are moving to the right.

What is also interesting is that this ideological gap has almost totally come about within the last 10-15 years.

This divergence in views based on gender is something we have never seen before.  Shifts in political ideology have historically moved generationally as all members of a generation share the same general formative experiences and reach significant milestones at the same stages of life. 

John Gray did not know how right he was when he wrote his best selling book over 20 years ago.

Young men and women truly seem as if they are living on different planets today.

Does The Road To Riches Run Through Washington, D.C.?

(April 26, 2024)

In ten years since first getting involved in politics Trump has seen his net worth almost cut in half.

Over those same ten years Nancy Pelosi has increased her net worth 8 times and Mitch McConnell has doubled his.

The final scorecard on wealth over the last 10 years or so.

Pelosi              up  700%

McConnell     up  100%

Trump            down 50%

Who has enriched themselves in public office and who has not?

You may or may not like Donald Trump, but the fact is that it is likely that no man who has been President has ever sacrificed so much, for so so little personal benefit, than Donald Trump.

The Fourth Turning Is Here---Part 1

(July 8, 2024)

(Ed. Note---this was written five days before the assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Butler, PA and two weeks before Joe Biden stepped aside for Kamala Harris).

"After the Fourth Turning arrives, however, a Lincoln-like leader will be more likely to seek office, and a Lincoln-like leader could be exactly what America needs, wants and gets."

Can Trump be that leader if given another chance?

I don't know. 

I am not saying Trump is another Lincoln or even FDR.

However, I do know that the above description does not in any way describe Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg or Gretchen Whitmer nor does it describe what we saw from Barack Obama in eight years.

Like it or not, Donald Trump may be our only chance to survive The Fourth Turning. 

How Clear Does It Have To Be?

(August 23, 2024)

There is supposed to be nothing more sacrosanct in our constitutional system than private property rights.

Yet Kamala Harris believes the government should have the power to confiscate private property if someone does not do what the government wants?

I don't think I have ever seen a scarier view of a politician's core values and true beliefs than in that clip

Isn't this what the communists did in the Soviet Union, China, Cuba and Venezuela once they took power?

How clear does all of this have to be to understand what is at stake in this election?

Supermen

(October 14, 2024)

It is not often that a Superman comes along to save the day.

It is even rarer to have two Supermen on the same team that are dedicated to making America and the world greater.

Forget about the politics.

The 2024 vote is most assuredly about our future.

All men are created equal.

However, some just get far more done than others.

You might not choose either of these men to be your pastor or have them marry your daughter.

However, when it comes to your future and that of your children and grandchildren, is there any better choice before you?

It Doesn't Matter Who Is President

"It doesn't matter who is President."

This is something I have heard a lot over the years.

It is more prevalent with younger voters and those who often don't bother to vote.

It should not be forgotten that there are over 75 million people who are eligible to vote in the United States who have never bothered to register.

We are a mere five days after the 2024 Presidential election has been called.

Let's look at some headlines over the last few days.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/hamas-calls-immediate-end-war-after-trump-election-win-1981571

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mexico-s-migrant-caravan-breaking-up-after-trump-victory-sows-uncertainty/ar-AA1tHSCV?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=87d8a32c01404280bd579b537e28db2d&ei=56

Source: https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-chief-suggested-to-trump-buying-us-gas-instead-of-russia-s-451c5356

Source: https://fortune.com/asia/2024/11/06/china-says-it-hopes-for-peaceful-coexistence-with-u-s-as-trump-clinches-win/

Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/diplomat-says-qatar-pulling-out-of-gaza-mediation-role-confirms-hamas-to-be-ousted/

Source: https://abc7ny.com/post/new-york-city-ending-voucher-program-allowed-migrant-families-buy-own-food/15523750/

Source: https://thehill.com/policy/international/4979324-putin-congratulates-trump-election/

Source: https://deadline.com/2024/11/stock-market-surges-donald-trump-2024-election-1236169001/

Dow Jones Average chart over the last month.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI

S&P 500 over the last month.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX

Source: https://apnews.com/article/bitcoin-crypto-donald-trump-election-c2e2a1a895288c5e9c0df2721012a5bb

Bitcoin chart over the last month.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=?qfsearchterm

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/susie-wiles-will-be-first-female-white-house-chief-of-staff-223921733588

Some on X with tongue firmly placed in cheek note that Trump is already bringing down prices.

 

The string of headlines like those above caused the internet satire site The Babylon Bee to post this meme.

Will Trump have anything to do when he is actually inaugurated?

The unfortunate reality is that there is plenty to do.

In fact, despite the euphoria right now among his supporters, the odds are high that there are massive challenges ahead for Trump.

You can be sure that those in the Big State, Big Media and Big Tech will be challenging him at every turn.

Add to this group Big Pharma now that Trump has added Robert F. Kennedy to his team in order to Make America Healthy Again.

The odds are also high that we will see a major recession, stock market correction,  or expanded war in the Middle East, Europe or Asia over the next four years.

It will also be a miracle if we don't face a major federal debt crisis in that time.

Federal debt as a % of GDP is now higher than what it was right after we borrowed heavily to fight and win World War II.

At the end of 2023, U.S. debt was 121% of GDP. 

It peaked at 119% in 1946.

The debt taken on for World War II became manageable over time because the economies of most countries around the world were devastated by the war.  This allowed the United States to dominate the world economy with large annual increases in GDP.

We are in a much different position today.

We also have to consider the possibility that any crisis ahead could be significant enough that the future of our society itself could rest in the balance.

This was true in previous Fourth Turning crisis periods in American history---the Revolutionary War, The Civil War, Great Depression and World War II.

You may notice that these Fourth Turning crisis periods are all separated by about 80 years.

1945 + 80= 2025

(If you want to know more about The Fourth Turning theory regarding the cycles of history I did a three part series of blog posts on the subject in July of this year here, here and here).

A major reason that I voted for Donald Trump in last week's election was that I was very sensitive to the threats to our society that we may face in the next four years.

This is a time when we need strong, courageous and indomitable leadership.

This is a time when we need someone who will fight without flinching or fear.

This is a time we need someone who is battle-tested and who has had to get in the ring against the longest of odds and survived.

I don't believe there is another human being alive on earth today who has faced more adversity and challenges than Donald Trump has over the years in both business and politics.

And he is still standing.

I am also confident that he will be ready and able to meet any challenges ahead.

That was no the case with his opponent or anyone else in the Democrat party right now.

You may not like his bluster or brashness or his talk and tweets. 

However, if we get into a full-scale Fourth Turning crisis, you better thank God Donald Trump is your President for the next four years.

Trump's resolve and resilience may make all the difference in the world.

It doesn't matter who is President?

It matters. It matters a great deal.

The Fourth Turning Is Here---Part Three

In my series of blog posts on "The Fourth Turning Is Here" in part one I  provided an overview of the theory behind the The Fourth Turning and what we have seen in similar periods in the past.

In part two of this series I outlined where we are in The Fourth Turning and what might lead us to the climax period and when this crisis period we are in will end.

In this final blog post of the series  I will summarize what happens on the other side of the crisis period. 

What can we expect insofar as changes in the attitudes of the populace and how society might change as we progress through the final stages and beyond in The Fourth Turning,

When I first read the book, The Fourth Turning, over 25 years ago, the prediction of where we were heading was sobering and depressing.

As I was entering into the later stages of my life the last thing I wanted to hear was that crisis, chaos and societal challenges were in the future.

Then again, I also understood that the theory of The Fourth Turning and the seasons of history meant that everyone would necessarily have to endure the crisis period at some point in their lives.

Some were born into the crisis period. Others came face to face with it when they were just coming of age or in mid-life. Some saw it in their elder years.

Everyone would have to face the Fourth Turning challenge to our society at some point in their lives.

Despite the fact that there was a feeling of pessimism in me when I first read The Fourth Turning in the last 1990's looking to the future, the book also suggested that the seasons of history pointed to a more optimistic future on the other side of the crisis.

During a good part of my life, families had been weakening.

Virtue, values and ideals have been under attack.

Gender roles have gotten more confused and indistinguishable from each other.

Decisions were made more on what felt right than what worked or what was right.

Trust in our Institutions was consistently eroding.

Individualism ruled over the community.

There were deep divisions in society on almost all issues. There was little unity of agreement on anything.

The vision of the future became increasingly foreboding with each successive decade of my life.

The silver lining in The Fourth Turning is that it will inevitably cause the mood of the society to change.

It will have to change if society is to survive the crisis.

There are brighter days ahead once we get beyond this crisis period of history.

Families will become more important.

The gap in gender roles will become wider and more clearly defined.

Common sense and doing what works will become more important than what someone "feels" is right.

Our Institutions will be trusted again.

Community values will become important. Those that buck the system will be looked down on.

There will be a new unity of purpose and an optimistic outlook on life and society's future.

This graphic from the book summarizes how social moods change in each of the four turnings.

Credit: https://krusekronicle.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/moods.gif

 

We will not go back to the halcyon days of the 1950's and early 1960's. History does not repeat but it does rhyme.  However, we should be at a place with less division, a clearer view of what is right and wrong and a society in which there is more accountability and individual responsibility than has existed for a long time in the United States.

It is just sad that our society will have to be tested in ways that most of us have never experienced to get us to that point.

However, that seems to be necessary in order to get more unity, less division, more simplicity, less complexity, stronger families, children who are more independent and community values that are more clearly defined and accepted.

History tells us that there is real hope that there are changes for the better on the other side of the mountain in front of us right now.

The Fourth Turning Is Here---Part Two

If you have not read "The Fourth Turning Is Here---Part One" click here.

Since The Fourth Turning was published in 1997 by Neil Howe and William Strauss a lot has changed.

First and foremost, William Strauss passed away in 2007 at the age of 60.

Ironically, he did not live to see the beginning of The Fourth Turning (generally set in 2008) that he and Howe predicted.

Neil Howe carried on the generational theory work that they collaborated on of which The Fourth Turning book was a part of.

I went to several lectures that Neil Howe did over the years to see if I could gain further insights on any current thinking that he might have on The Fourth Turning theory once it was obvious that is where we were.

I never got as much out of those talks as I hoped.

At one point Howe pegged the beginning of the Fourth Turning to coincide with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 as it seemed to represent a critical turning point in the public's loss of trust in government institutions.

Howe later determined that the financial meltdown and Great Recession beginning in 2008 were the catalyst that signaled the beginning of what he refers to as the Millennial Crisis period.  That made more sense as the beginning of The Fourth Turning as it affected everyone.

I have gotten the sense that Howe leans more to the Democrat side and the events of the last 15 years have unsettled him a bit. 

For example, when Barack Obama and the Democrats took almost total control of government in 2009 in the wake of the financial crisis, I believe that the fact that they squandered that crisis with an agenda that focused more on dividing than uniting the country was very troubling to Howe.

The disappointment of the Obama years led to the rise of Donald Trump whose brand of populism  is clearly not Howe's cup of tea. I find this a little perplexing in that Trump's agenda and messaging aligns in most respects with the major themes that Howe and Strauss suggested a Fourth Turning leader would likely need to lead the country.

The quotes on the left are taken directly from the book of the important themes that might be expected from a Fourth Turning leader. My comments on the right are from a blog post in May, 2016 at the time that Trump was just wrapping up the GOP nomination that year entitled "Has The Fourth Turning Brought Us Trump?".

Eight years later that blog post remains one of the five most popular posts I have written over the years based on the number of views.

"Decisive action".  There is very little gray in Trump's outlook.

"Assert public authority."  Think about Trump's views on eminent domain.

"Aggravate rather than alleviate societal pressures." Trump's views and statements on immigration.

"Reverse the decline of the middle class."  His major voting target is forgotten working class voters.

"De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies."  His call to consider the de-funding of NATO.

"Promote traditional values."  "Make America Great Again." 

"More isolationist."  Very consistent with his views on the Middle East.

"Less globally dependent".  His views on NAFTA, China, Japan on trade.

"Defense and Infrastructure."  Two of Trump's favorite topics in every speech. However, late last year, 

I guess that this just confirms that personal biases inevitably filter into almost anything anyone does.

Howe is no exception.

In any event, 26 years after publishing The Fourth Turning, Neil Howe recently released a sequel to the original book titled, The Fourth Turning Is Here.

I recently read the book to find out where Howe believes we are headed next based on the seasons of history.

At the outset, it is important to remember that by any measure we are fairly deep into the Fourth Turning.

In the original book Howe and Strauss predicted that the Fourth Turning would begin sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after. Howe now puts that date at 2008.

Howe and Strauss predicted that the Fourth Turning would last 20 years or so putting the end of the crisis period around the end of this decade.

Why is that important?

The history of past Fourth Turnings has found that the time of maximum crisis is about 3/4 of the way through the Fourth Turning. Howe refers to this as the Climax or Ekpyrosis.

Source: https://www.sokratiko.com/words/ekpyrosis/

This is the period of highest risk and the years in which civic action will reach the point of maximum power. It is the point at which society must come together to either overcome an external foe, internal political division or civil war.

Based on the timetable of the original book that would put us right in that timeframe currently (2024-2026).

In the new book, Howe has pushed out the timetable. He suggests it is most likely that the current Fourth Turning crisis period will probably end between 2032 and 2034. Howe projects the likely year for the Climax to be the last couple of years leading up to the the end of this decade.

One of the reasons for this is that people are generally living longer. 

An important part of the theory is that history is made not be events but by the reaction of people to the events. This means that the same reactions and mistakes are made over the centuries as people do not have the ability to learn from their mistakes. In effect, the last time we were in this position, most of the people alive are now gone.

Howe sees three social stressors that may prove important enough to influence the outcome of the Fourth Turning leading to the Climax or Ekpyrosis.

1. A financial crash

2. Internal conflict

3. External conflict

Howe sees a financial crash as being a distinct possibility in the coming years as the inevitable result of chronic stimulus from the federal government, debt pyramids built on near zero interest rates and promises of Treasury bailouts and Fed backstops in case there's trouble.

More troubling to Howe is the fact that the next crash, when it comes, would be one in which additional stimulus would likely not be available. The reason--the federal government has overextended itself and will simply not be able to afford what is necessary. This will mean that any recovery from a post-pandemic crash will be slow and halting.

Howe sees all of this further feeding tensions between the red and blue tribal factions in the country with each group gravitating to more radical goals and confrontational tactics.

The blue faction will push for higher taxes and more redistribution. The red faction will become more authoritarian on immigration and trade,

Howe suggests that a financial crash will not be the Climax by itself but will be a stressor that leads us there.

That additional stressor will create an even more divided country that may lead to outright civil war.

Howe suggests that "threats of violence may encourage the growth of uniformed "street corps" on both sides."

The end result could actually be another civil war. 

Howe suggests that it is not as far-fetched as it sounds.

The United States fits many of the checklist profiles of a country at risk of civil war.

Trust in government is eroding.

Respect for democratic institutions is weakening.

There are two deeply divided political factions and a population that is heavily armed.

The country has deep divisions on a number of ethnic, cultural and urban vs. rural dimensions.

Each faction wants its country to become something the other detests and each fears the other taking power.

Put all of this together and consider how close to outright civil war we may have come as a result of the assassination attempt on President Trump last Saturday.

A few centimeters combined with the glaringly obvious missteps of the Secret Service would have been all it would have taken to see things quickly spin out of control.

As it is, large numbers of Trump supporters believe that the federal government may have somehow been involved either directly or indirectly in the attempted assassination of Trump.

On the other hand, a recent Morning Consult poll revealed that one-third of Democrat voters believe that Trump staged the assassination attempt.

There seems little doubt that we are living on a precipice of history in which one misstep could put us in a  situation in which there is no return.

Howe postulates that a civil war might result in both sides claiming to legitimately be the United States government. Every federal institution---from Congress to the federal courts to various executive departments might abruptly and awkwardly rupture to two sides based on personal loyalties. The populace could very well be forced to take sides splitting families and communities much like the Civil War of the 1860's. There might be a geographic divide involved (urban vs. rural) as in the Civil War but the division would be much more ideological than geographic.

How does it resolve itself?

Howe only sees two paths to move beyond the deep divisions we have today to the unity we need to move forward as a society.

The first path is that one side wins. The other side loses. There is no middle ground or compromises that typically end conflicts in Fourth Turning crisis periods. 

One side wins and the other side capitulates. There are no peace deals or negotiated settlements in Fourth Turnings. It is winner take all.

The losing side may not be totally wiped away but it reaches a point that it has no choice but to go along with the agenda of the winner. The era of divided government and attitudes ends and the society moves forward united.

This happened during the Revolutionary War when the patriots won and the loyalists to England lost. It happened a second time in the 1780's after Great Britain was defeated. Those who wanted a strong U.S. Constitution prevailed and those who were content with a looser confederation of states lost the argument on how the new U.S. government would operate.

It was also the case in the Civil War when the Republicans from the north who wanted to end slavery won and the Democrats from the southern states who resisted in the name of states' rights lost.

We saw it again during the Depression and World War II where the Republicans who opposed the New Deal and had isolationist views in the 1930's eventually had to capitulate to FDR and the Democrats as we were drawn into World War II. Internal political squabbles ended and all focus went to the war effort.

The second path is that both sides get scared straight by an existential external threat.  It then results in everyone in the society having to united and work together for a common cause in order to survive.

The range of possibilities and outcomes on this second path are daunting as well as sobering.

In this era of AI, drones and weapons of mass destruction the idea of a war that rises to the level of what we have seen in previous Fourth Turnings should give everyone pause

Howe also points out that even in the case of civil war that it is not unlikely that the side that is losing during the conflict is often motivated to solicit external players or nations to their cause.

The patriots did this in the Revolutionary War with French assistance which was as much a civil conflict between patriots and loyalists as it was a war against the British.

We also saw this in the Civil War in which the Confederate States worked very hard to enlist the British or other European powers for their aid against the Union.

However, Howe suggest that nothing is inevitable.

"We The People" control our destiny.

As stated before, history is not made by events but the reaction of people to those events.

It is also true that people can change the course of history.

We can get through the Fourth Turning and to a First Turning that is dominated not by division, crisis and chaos but by unity, confidence and optimism without mayhem and violence.

However, it is going to take the American people acting together to accomplish that.

That is why I see the election this year as so consequential.

There has probably not been another one that rises to this level since the election of 1860.

Our trajectory in the Fourth Turning will not change with another close, divided election result.

To have any chance of navigating from where we seem to be headed it is going to take a decisive victory for one side or the other at the ballot box.

It is obviously much better to get to where we need to be through the democratic process in which the people convincingly decide what type of government they want and need without having to go through the darkest depths of a Fourth Turning.

It is here that my bias shows as I see there is only one direction and party that can feasibly get us to that point at the present time---Donald Trump and the Republicans.

I just don't see that the Democrats have the breadth of support and the commitment of its voters to be a dominant party that is capable of appealing to mainstream voters with the current agenda they have.

It is easy to understand what the Republican Party stands for right now.

The same is not true for the Democrats. The only thing that is clear with Democrats in 2024 is they do not like Donald Trump.

That is not a platform that seems capable of leading to sustained political dominance.

As I have observed the events of the last 15 years or so, and the positions of the political parties have evolved, I often think about this passage on page 312 from the original book, The Fourth Turning, written in 1997.

"History warns that when a Crisis catalyzes, a previously dominant political party (or regime) can find itself directly blamed for perceived 'mistakes' that led to the national emergency.

"That party could find itself out of power for a generation. Key persons associated with it could find themselves defamed, stigmatized, harassed, economically ruined, personally punished---or worse."

Based on where we are right now. does this sound more like the Democrat or Republican Party?

Is it any wonder the Democrats are in full fledged panic mode right now and are on the verge of pushing their duly elected candidate nominee out of the 2024 race despite telling everyone a month ago he was "sharp as a tack"?  

The Fourth Turning is undoubtedly here.

The question remains as to what we are going to do about it?