Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Not Likely To Get Better

In the aftermath of the street violence in Cincinnati several weeks ago there has been a lot of talk about the need for political leadership changes in the city.

Many people suggest that we are going to see the voters of Cincinnati rise up in the next election and vote for leaders who support law and order and reject the woke policies and sanctuary city status that have been instituted in the city in recent years.

That is what should occur if common sense prevailed. 

However, taking a look at what has happened in other large American cities facing similar problems it is not likely to get better in Cincinnati.

For example, let's look at the three largest American cities---New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles--and examine what we have seen as these cities deteriorated.

They did not reject the course they were on. They all doubled down on the failed policies by electing mayors that were even more liberal.

Eric Garcetti was Mayor of Los Angeles from 2013-2022. Like all other big city mayors, he was a Democrat.

Garcetti would be described as a progressive but he also was pragmatic.

When Garcetti left office he was replaced by Karen Bass. Bass is objectively much more liberal than Garcetti. She has been called a socialist and communist by some. Part of that is due to her many trips to Cuba over the years and the glowing words she used to describe Fidel Castro.


Mayor Karen Bass of Los Angeles
Credit: https://www.dailynews.com/2024/07/03/los-angeles-mayor-karen-bass-announces-her-2026-reelection-bid/


In fact, when Bass was being considered as a possible VP pick by Joe Biden in 2020 she had to say this to NBC News to tamp down that talk.

“I’m not a socialist. I’m not a communist. I’ve belonged to one party my entire life and that’s the Democratic Party and I’m a Christian,” Bass told NBC News.

There is little question that LA has gone further left as their problems have grown.

The same is true in Chicago.

Lori Lightfoot was a disastrous left wing mayor in the Windy City who had replaced establishment Democrat Rahm Emanuel.


Former Mayor Lori Lightfoot of Chicago
Credit: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/09/lightfoot-chicago-teachers-deal-abandoned-526807


Violent crime went up 40% during the Lightfoot era.

The city's debt burden continued to increase to one of the highest of any city government in the United States. Much of that is tied to rich pension programs for the city's public sector employees.

What did the voters do when they turned their back on Lightfoot in the 2023 Democrat primary.?

They went even further left and elected Brandon Johnson.


Mayor Brandon Johnson of Chicago
Credit: https://www.axios.com/2023/04/05/chicago-mayor-election-result-brandon-johnson


Debt and crime in Chicago are even worse now than it was with Lightfoot.

The Wall Street Journal recently named Johnson "America's Worst Mayor".

Johnson believes the way out of the mess that Chicago is to enact a wealth tax on the city's residents.

Put aside the fact that a wealth tax might not be constitutional.

Johnson also seems oblivious to the fact that no one has to live in Chicago and have their wealth taxed away to pay for illegal immigrants, rich government pensions and failing schools .

Will the last person in Chicago please turn off the lights?

Finally, we have New York.

In the past, New York City was blessed with Mayors like Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg who were level headed and practical. They understood that public safety was the most important issue in any city. They used the police to get criminals off the streets and made sure New York City was an attractive place to visit and do business in.


Source: https://www.ebay.com/itm/293671934922


New York City went from Bloomberg to Bill DeBlasio who was most interested in income inequality issues and had a contentious relationship with the police.

When he left office after his two terms he ran for the Democrat nomination for President in 2020.

DeBlasio regularly polled at 0% among Democrat presidential candidates including in his home state of New York. He was forced to drop out of the race after not qualifying for the debates and endorsed Bernie Sanders. What more do you have to know about De Blasio's political philosophy?

There was some hope for NYC as DeBlasio was replaced by Eric Adams who was a former police officer who ran as a moderate and stated he would be more serious about crime and public safety issues.

However, Adams got engulfed in ethics investigations during his term which hindered his effectiveness as Mayor. He saw his approval rating sink and determined he was not viable as the Democrat candidate in 2025. He is now running as a long shot independent.

To replace Adams, Democrats have gone about as far left as they can and nominated a candidate who openly espouses proudly socialist and communist policies---Zohran Mamdani.

In the past he has been a proponent of defunding the police and has shown disdain for private property rights.

His "big ideas" are to have city-run grocery stores and freeze rents for 2 million people.

Mamdani will be the next mayor of NYC unless a miracle occurs between now and November.

This is the most recent polling on that race.



No one should expect a miracle to occur in New York City.

Or for common sense to reappear in Cincinnati, LA or Chicago.

Why?

The simple truth is that the majority of the voters in these cities are voting for who is going to give them what they want.

Free stuff for themselves and illegals.

Promises that they will make the rich pay more.

Big pensions for public workers paid by everyone else.

Reduced police patrols and crime enforcement.

Low bail policies.

Legalized drug policies.

There is no longer a majority of voters living in big cities who believe in the things that we used to take for granted.

The majority in a democracy rules and the majority in these big cities are voting for the people that tell them they will give them free stuff and let them do whatever they want on the streets.

Those that have common sense get smaller every year as they flee these cities and the liberal policies for the suburbs or rural areas where they can feel safe and free.

That is the reality.

In the last presidential election 76% of the voters in the city of Cincinnati voted for Kamala Harris.

Sadly, it is not likely to get better in Cincinnati or any other big city.

It is most likely only going to get worse.

The math is inescapable.

A democracy gives people the government the majority wants.

It may not be what they need.

That is a big reason that our nation's founders established the United States of America as a constitutional republic which tempers majority rule with protections for minority and individual rights and attempts to limit government power.

The wisdom of our founders becomes more apparent every day as we watch what is happening in the nation's largest cities.

Monday, August 11, 2025

Planes, Trains and Data

It was recently announced that the Union Pacific railroad was seeking to merge with Norfolk Southern.

The deal would create the first U.S. transcontinental railroad.

Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/union-pacific-norfolk-southern-merge-creating-first-us-transcontinental-railroad

What caught my eye in the announcement was that Norfolk Southern was being valued at an $85 billion  in the deal.

If approved, the combined Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern could be valued at more than $250 billion.

BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) is the other railroad industry giant. It is privately owned by Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway but is valued individually at $200 billion according to one analyst.

CSX is the other major U.S. railroad and is valued at $66 billion at its recent stock price.

In total, these U.S. rail companies have a total market cap value of about a half a trillion dollars.

How does the market value of what many see as the boring and old rail business in the United States compare to the more glamorous and newer airline business?

Here are the current market values of the leading U.S. air carriers


American           $8 Billion 

Delta                 $35 Billion 

Southwest         $16 Billion 

United               $29 Billion 


This chart puts it in a little better perspective.



You begin to understand the significance of the Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern deal when you realize that Norfolk Southern is being acquired at a price that is almost equal to the value of all four of the major U.S. air carriers.

What else can we conclude from this data?

It appears to be a lot more profitable to transport freight than people.

This data also does not suggest an optimistic outlook for high speed passenger rail in the United States.

If the rail companies saw high speed rail as a lucrative enterprise these private sector companies clearly have the experience and financial capability to make it happen.

The private sector obviously does not see high speed rail as economically viable.

Instead, liberals want government to fill the void and provide high speed passenger rail service anyway.

How has that worked out in California?

In 2008, California voters approved a proposed high speed passenger rail line between Los Angeles and San Francisco that voters were told would cost $33 billion.

17 years later not one mile of passenger track is in service and the cost is now projected to exceed $128 billion for a scaled down plan.

It was originally stated the high speed rail line would be operational by 2020. New estimates put that date into the 2030's if it gets completed at all. 

That is looking more unlikely as the Trump administration is pulling federal funding for the project which has already seen $7 billion of taxpayer dollars go to California.





Of course, all of this was predictable from the start.

In fact, I wrote a blog post in 2012 that the high speed rail project looked to be "a train to nowhere" and quoted from an article by Joel Kotkin titled " The Great California Exodus".

Gavin Newsom has replaced Jerry Brown as Governor since that time.

Things have only gotten worse in California in the last 13 years.


Mr. Kotkin calls the runaway-cost train "classic California." "Where [Brown] with the state going bankrupt is even thinking about an expenditure like this is beyond comprehension. When the schools are falling apart, when the roads are falling apart, the bridges are unsafe, the state economy is in free fall. We're still doing much worse than the rest of the country, we've got this growing permanent welfare class, and high-speed rail is going to solve this?"


The first clue to the liberal Democrats should have been when Union Pacific did not see the great opportunity to build its own high speed line between LA and San Francisco years ago.

Merging with Norfolk Southern is a much better deal.

Sadly, for what California is projected to spend on its high speed rail project, it could have acquired all the major U.S. airline carriers and had money left over,

Or it could have bought Norfolk Southern and Delta (or United). Or both American and Southwest.

The numbers and data always tell a much bigger story than you can imagine.

Why is it that liberal Democrats always seem to ignore reality?

Friday, August 8, 2025

Presidential Legacies

I am constantly amazed at the opposition that President Trump engenders on almost anything he says or does.

Trump could find the cure for cancer or bring peace to every country on the planet and there would still be those who would find fault with it.

The latest example involves what Trump has been doing to improve the White House.

Last month two new 88 foot flag poles were unveiled at the White House that were totally paid for by Trump.

There is now a flag pole on each side of the White House.

Previously, the only flag visible on the property was hanging from a small pole on top of the White House.


Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-trump-raises-new-american-flag-on-south-lawn-of-the-white-house/

 

I like the look.

However, it seems that there are some who do not want to see Trump make any changes to the White House grounds, no matter what they are.

This is a headline form The Daily Beast who thinks the changes Trump is making to the White House are "monstrous" and "tacky".


Source: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-makes-more-monstrous-changes-to-the-white-house/

Trump has also recently modernized the grass in the center of the White House Rose Garden with a hard surface that makes it more useable and accessible. Many events have to be held in the Rose Garden because of limited space in the White House. 

However, women with heels and those who were disabled had a difficult time navigating the grass. It was unusable if the grass was wet from recent rain.

The roses and plantings that surround the center remain but a hard surface has replaced the soft grass in the center.

The new surface also includes drain grates in the design of the American flag and the Presidential seal in all four corners.




The Rose Garden is now a much more functional and practical place for events.

Yes, some green space has been replaced but there is still plenty of grass remaining at the White House and the roses are still in the garden as they were before..

It looks to me to be a good decision.

Finally, Trump has announced plans to build a $200 million ballroom adjoining the White House that can seat 650 guests for events such as state dinners.

There is currently nothing at the White House that can accommodate more than 200 guests for receptions, banquets, dinners or ceremonies. That is the capacity of the East Room.

Larger events such as state dinners currently have to be held in a temporary tent that is constructed each time it is necessary,

The tent look is not exactly in keeping with what you would expect from the nation's executive mansion.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5OrO8gUzgI

The renderings I have seen of Trump's ballroom look spectacular to me.

A lot windows, a light, airy and classy space with a view of the Washington Monument in the distance.


Source: https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/politics/2025/07/31/see-renderings-for-the-new-white-house-ballroom/85468370007/



Source: https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/politics/2025/07/31/see-renderings-for-the-new-white-house-ballroom/85468370007/

The building would be to the east of the White House and on the opposite side from the West Wing offices and the Rose Garden.

Critics argue that the ballroom would do harm to the historical significance of the White House property.

Preservationists must like the days when everyone lived in tents.

This is a rendering of the exterior of the south side of the White House with the ballroom addition.

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/politics/2025/07/31/see-renderings-for-the-new-white-house-ballroom/85468370007/

Here is a rendering of the east side of the ballroom addition that would face toward the Treasury Department buidling.


Source: https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/politics/2025/07/31/see-renderings-for-the-new-white-house-ballroom/85468370007/

I don't think you could get anything the size of that ballroom facility to tie in with the the character and architectural design of the White House that would be better than what is proposed here.

All of this is also not going to cost the taxpayers anything.

Trump has stated he is going to pay for the new ballroom with his own funds and those of private donors.

The President was even seen up on the White House roof this week with his architects overseeing plans for this project and possibly other ideas he has for the property.



Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-appears-white-house-roof-amid-talks-historic-renovations


Trump is looking at all of this as a legacy project.

Even if all of the construction that is scheduled to begin in September goes exactly as planned, Trump will likely not be able to enjoy much of it as President.

Trump is not doing it for himself. He is doing it for the country.

All of these White House projects reveal quite a bit about Trump.

First, Trump is an iconoclast who is not afraid to challenge conventional wisdom and the status quo.

I wrote about Trump as an iconoclast earlier this year.

Iconoclasts are rare but we need them to move society forward.

Too many people cannot see beyond the status quo on what might improve our situation.

These projects are great examples.

Are we going to keep holding Rose Garden events on soggy grass just because JFK did 60 years ago?

Trump is also not afraid to take the heat to accomplish things that should be done.

Second, Trump always uses common sense thinking in looking at any problem. 

Are we going to keep having state dinners in a tent because there is no room in the White House that can seat more than 200 people?

Why don't we build a permanent facility? 

We can use it in multiple ways and we also won't have to erect an unsightly tent 100 yards from the White House entrance every time we need the space.

Third, Trump loves building things and the construction process. These projects are in Trump's blood and you can be sure that they will be done right. Trump is famous for his attention to detail in his projects and you can be sure that everything will be done with class and refinement. Trump will not have it any other way.

Fourth, as I alluded to earlier, Trump is looking at his legacy. He wants to leave something that will be an asset to the country that will last well beyond his time on earth.

On the subject of legacy, which would you feel most comfortable be associated with?

Trump's White House renovations?

Or the Obama Library that is being constructed in Chicago at the direction of Barack Obama to house his presidential papers and legacy.






Source: https://www.obama.org/stories/construction-update-august-2025/


Here is another view of the Obama Library under construction.


Credit: https://x.com/CortesSteve/status/1947275365480865920


Is it just me that I think this looks more like a metropolitan corrections center than a legacy to an American President?

Or something the East Germans or Soviets would have built?

This is a rendering of what the Obama library is supposed to look like when it is finished at a cost of over $1 billion.

It is not quite as brutal to look at but it looks to me more like a Center for Islamic Studies or was designed and built by aliens who conquered our planet.



Source: https://www.obama.org/presidential-center/


Is there anything aspirational or inspirational at all in this building design?

Who is getting more for the money---Trump or Obama?

Which legacy are you willing to bet on for the future?

Trump or Obama?

I will leave it to you to guess where I come down on that question.

Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Remembering Hiroshima

It was 80 years ago today that a United States B-29 bomber named the "Enola Gay" dropped the first atomic bomb in warfare on Hiroshima, Japan.


The Enola Gay
Credit: Time Magazine


The hope was that this weapon would lead to end World War II and prevent what was estimated to be over 1 million casualties that might result from the invasion of the Japanese mainland by United States forces.

Japan did not immediately surrender after Hiroshima. It took a second atomic weapon being dropped on Nagasaki several days later for Japan to understand it was out of options in the war.

Japan announced that it was surrendering unconditionally on August 15, 1945. Formal surrender would come on September 2.

I had the opportunity to visit Hiroshima seven years ago.

It is a bustling and beautiful city of over 1 million people today.

Traveling the city I could not help thinking that every tree, every blade of glass and almost every building did not exist 73 years before


Hiroshima after the Atomic Bomb
Credit: Shigeo Hayashi



This is what the area around what has become known as Peace Memorial Park in Hiroshima looks like today.


A-Bomb Dome
The building closest to the hypocenter of the atomic bomb



I was interested to hear what our Japanese guide (who was in her late 60's) would say about the reasons behind the decision for the Americans to use the atomic bomb. She was surprisingly candid in stating that the Americans used it to save lives. She understood that an invasion of Japan would have resulted in many more deaths. 

She openly admitted that her father told her that the Japanese had made a mistake in going to war with the United States. The Japanese people had been brainwashed by their Emperor and the government into believing they could win. It was an interesting admission. Of course, she was also speaking to a group that was largely made up of Americans.

There were many moving exhibits that were on display in the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum.

This is a tricycle of a 3 year old boy named Shin who died 1,500 meters from the hypocenter of the atomic blast.


Credit: https://www.reddit.com/r/ArtefactPorn/comments/13zcqtz/tricycle_of_3_year_old_boy_named_shin_who_died/


Right after the atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima it was predicted that nothing would grow or flourish in the city for 75 years.

However, this image that was in the museum had the greatest effect on me.


Exhibit in the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum


It shows a flowering plant flowering amidst the rubble in the autumn of 1945 just a couple of months after the blast.

That image surely signaled the power of renewal...and hope for the future.

The inscription on the photo reads...

That autumn

In Hiroshima where it was said "For seventy-five years nothing will grow

New buds sprouted

In the green that came back to life

Among the charred ruins

People recovered 

Their living hopes and courage

This is a beautiful Japanese garden that I walked through while I was in Hiroshima.

The buds that pushed through all of the ruins and rubble really became something spectacular.




We can only hope and pray that we never see a Hiroshima or Nagasaki again.

However, seeing the renewal that came out of the destruction and devastation that we saw there should give us hope in mankind in even the darkest of days.

The unanswered question is why mankind seems incapable of avoiding those dark days?


Monday, August 4, 2025

Trump, the BLS and Jobs

The jobs report for July was issued on Friday and the top line number proved to be disappointing.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that only 73,000 net jobs were added in July.

Economists were forecasting job gains of over 100,000.

Even worse, the BLS revised job numbers for May and June by shaving 258,000 jobs off of its last two reports.



May was revised down from 144,000 jobs to 19,000.

June was revised lower from 147,000 to 14,000.

This is not the first time we have seen major downward revisions to the jobs numbers.

Revisions are a normal outcome of the BLS survey process in which they use a sampling of employers to derive the employment numbers. Not all employers respond when they should and more data comes in the following month or two.

The chart below shows a graph of BLS revisions going back to 1955. 

Revisions can go both ways but in the last few years there appears to have been a decided error rate where downward revisions have become more common.


Credit: https://medium.com/@baogorek/bls-jobs-revisions-have-been-out-of-control-since-the-1950s-ee189eb4da6f

For example, in 2024 leading up to the election, we saw a string of months that touted good job growth numbers that were later revised downwards.

In fact, during the Biden years, 45 of 48 months were revised downwards after the initial report.

Some argue that the survey response rate has gotten worse since Covid which has made the initial BLS numbers suspect.

However, the initial job number is what gets all of the attention. 

It is the number that the media plays up, that Wall Street is paying attention to and that the Federal Reserve is basing its interest rate decisions on.

The revisions get little notice most of the time.

If we can't rely on the original number each month it is like the blind leading the blind.

For example, if the Fed had seen the revised BLS jobs number in May and June we most likely would have seen a rate cut in June and/or July.

Instead, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell only two days before the BLS revisions stated that the "labor market is solid" in his explanation as to why the Fed was holding interest rates steady. 



Seeing all of this President Trump reverted to the form he was famous for when he hosted The Apprentice on television.



He fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics who was appointed by Biden in 2023.


Source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/01/business/trump-job-report-number-fire

The media is attempting to paint the firing as Trump taking retribution for the bad jobs numbers in this month's report that in his words were"rigged".

However, when you take a step back and look at the accuracy of the reports during the tenure of Dr. McEntarger, it appears something is wrong somewhere.

How can you be off so much in your data that you have to revise the jobs numbers down by 87% in May and 90% in June?

Something is amiss if 45 of 48 monthly job reports had to be revised downwards.

It may not be the direct fault of the BLS chief, and the numbers may not be "rigged", but how can we accept data failures this large when so many decisions are being made that rely on the accuracy of these numbers?

Doesn't there have to be some accountability somewhere?

All of that being said, there were positives in the jobs report if you were Trump.

First, the disappointing jobs numbers in the report undermine the Fed claim that the "labor market is solid".

The odds that the rate cuts that Trump has been lobbying for have improved significantly after the BLS jobs report.

Before the jobs report was released, the betting odds were only 34% that there would be an interest rate cut of 25 basis points in September.

Those odds are now over 70%. The odds for a 50 basis point cut have risen from 2% to 8%.


Source: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september?tid=1754231760519

Trump should also take comfort that jobs for native born workers are seeing a resurgence.

Over the last several years all net job growths has come from foreign born workers.

I referenced data a year ago that showed that all net job growth since 2020 in the United States had come from foreign born workers. 

All of the net growth of 3 million jobs had been among foreign born workers. None from native born workers.



This is reversing under the Trump administration this year.


You can see the effect more clearly in this chart that just shows job growth over the last 12 months between native born and foreign born workers.




Finally, all of the net new jobs added to the U.S. economy this year have been from the private sector. Public sector jobs are actually down by 3% in 2025 so far.

In 2023, 28% of job growth was in government jobs. In 2024, it was 24% of the total.


Source: BLS
Credit: https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1951797363292680500


Trump's economic and immigration policies appear to be positively impacting those he promised he would focus his efforts on the most during his campaign for office.

This is a big, big change in a short period of time.

Considering everything Trump has on his plate right now there is no reason he should be concerned about whether the labor numbers are not reliable or might be "rigged".

You would think with all the technology and interconnectivity with data today that we would not still be using 1950's survey techniques as the basis for our most important economic indicators.

However, that is where we are.

You can argue that Trump overreacted in firing the BLS Director.

She undoubtedly inherited a bad process.

However, with the run of significant jobs numbers that required large revisions you would think that someone would pay a little more attention to improving the process since so much is riding on these numbers.

How do we fix things that are broken unless a signal is sent that business as usual is no longer acceptable in Washington, D.C.?

Friday, August 1, 2025

Time For The Excuses To End

It is hard to watch the viral video of the street violence that occurred in downtown Cincinnati over the weekend.

It is harder to watch when you live in suburban Cincinnati and have walked along that very stretch of downtown many times over the years.

The video shows multiple African Americans beating and kicking a white man in the street.

One person that analyzed the video counted 32 foot stomps by 17 different active assailants on the male victim.

It ends with a white woman, who was attempting to be a peacekeeper, being cold cocked and lying in the street bleeding and unconscious from the attack.

Here is a report from Fox News about the brawl that includes a portion of the viral video.




                                           https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbOMdBy3tg0


When you see this all you can ask is WHY? WHY? WHY?

What would possess anyone (let alone a gang of people) to resort to this type of random violence?

Perhaps there was a verbal exchange or push between the white man and a black man first but what is in someone else's mind that they believe they should just join in the brawl on a random person?

Even worse, why would a Black man sucker punch an innocent white woman who is doing nothing beyond trying to calm things down and assist the man in the street?

It is also beyond troubling that out of the scores of people watching all of this occur only one call was made to 911 for police and medical assistance.

Cincinnati police have also been criticized for having few police on the street when this unfolded despite the fact that earlier in the evening there had been a Reds game, a music festival and 3v3 basketball tournament that brought over 100,000 people to the downtown area that night.

The Cincinnati police apparently did not even know the incident had occurred until the video went viral.

The absolute worse thing I have seen in the aftermath of this violence are those excusing all of this.

The Cincinnati Chief of Police initially spent more time criticizing the media for reporting on the video than on the brawl and the assailants.

She said it was an unfair portrayal of the incident as it only showed one side of what went on.

Of course, almost a week later we still have not learned anything about "the other side of the story."


Source: https://www.nysun.com/article/cincinnati-chief-viral-social-media-weekend-racial-melee-misrepresents-circumstances-brawl



Chief Theetge must have seen how poorly that excuse went over and she subsequently spent time the next day blaming bar owners who might have served the assailants as the problem.

She finally got around to arresting some of the people who had been involved in the brawl but refused to provide any names.

Cincinnati media is reporting that these are three of those charged in the melee.


Source: https://www.fox19.com/2025/07/28/five-charged-connection-with-viral-brawl-police-chief-says/

However, the excuses continue.

The mother of Montianez Merriweather is taking issue with her son being referred to as a thug.

She says her 34 year old son has five kids and is in school on the honor roll.


Link: https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1950728938113712633

From Cincinnati Enquirer reporting on Merriweather, the honor roll student.




To make matters worse, Merriweather was released after posting just $400 on a $4,000 bond for the four felony charges on July 10..

He should have not even been out on the street last weekend.


In any event, notwithstanding the bail issue, shouldn't the father of 5 children be home with them at 3am in the morning?

The excuses are even being made by a Cincinnati City Councilwoman who stated on social media that the white victims in the brawl "begged for the beat down" and said she "was grateful for the whole story".

When questioned by the media, she doubled down on her statement.



Keep in mind that this is the current President Pro of the Cincinnati City Council!

Does Holly, the white female victim who was doing nothing more than attempting to keep the peace in the brawl, look like she was begging for that beat down?

This photo was provided by Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno who released the photo with Holly's permission.

Source: https://x.com/berniemoreno/status/1950687476529689034


Seeing all of this it is not difficult to conclude there are serious problems in what is known as "The Queen City".

It also shows that it is high time that the African American community stops making excuses and starts taking accountability and responsibility for some of its failures.

Yes, there have been past injustices and it is unlikely that all racism will ever be eliminated.

However, everything is not due to racism.

Everything is not due to poverty.

Everything is not the result of slavery 160 years ago.

Everything is not due to Donald Trump and the Republicans.

It is well past time for the African American community to look inward and address some of the issues that more directly underlie all of this.

Out of wedlock births.

Fatherless homes.

Glorification of guns, drugs and violence.

The notion that any social norms are to be disregarded because they are a part of "white culture".

Relying more on DEI than focusing on individual merit for advancement.

Someone reached out to me after viewing the video of the Cincinnati brawl with this question,

"How can we be so different in such basic perspectives?"

Indeed.

Sadly, this brawl is likely to engender more racism. 

Whites have to do their part. However, after viewing this video, it takes a special type of person to walk along a downtown street followed by a group of young African Americans and not feel some form of trepidation.

The Black community must recognize the problem and confront it themselves.

If we are going to be able to come together on some of the most basic perspectives involving humanity, it is time for the excuses to end.

There is only one race that matters---the human race.

It is time that humanity rules over race.

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Tariffs Not As Terrible As We Were Told?

When President Trump announced on April 2 that he was going to implement a broad range of tariffs on imported goods his plans were met with a storm of criticism.


Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/videos/my-fellow-americans-this-is-liberation-day-april-2-2025-president-donald-j-trump-%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B8%F0%9F%A6%85/

This is how Trump framed his announcement of the tariffs on that day.

“My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to Make America Wealthy Again.” –President Donald J. Trump

Economists, political pundits and Democrats were quick to criticize Trump.

Tariffs would hurt the U.S. economy.

Our trading partners would not accept tariffs.

Trump was going to start a trade war.

Tariffs would cause inflation.

The revenues that tariffs would raise would be minimal.

All of this would lead to a U,S. stock market meltdown as investors lost confidence in the United States.

It is true that uncertainty about the tariff strategy initially caused a downturn in the stock market.

The S&P 500 lost 12 % of its value in the week after Liberation Day.




However, it now stands over 12% higher than it was on April 1, 2025.

It is almost 28% higher than where it stood at the market lows on April 8.

The betting market odds of a recession in 2025 are currently at 17%. In April, right after the tariff plan was announced, the odds were as high as 70%.


This is one of the lowest betting odds numbers on a recession since Polymarket started taking wagers.

Revenue from tariffs has already resulted in over $150 billion to the federal budget this year.


Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/july-tariff-revenues-break-monthly-record-150-billion-collected-so-far-2025


Treasury Secretary Bessent is estimating that tariff revenues will exceed $300 billion for the year.

In 2024, there was about $80 billion in revenue from tariffs most of which were on China that Trump instituted during his first term.

Thus far, tariffs do not appear to have contributed to additional inflation.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-trump-tariffs/

That may change over time but to this point it appears that the tariffs are not being passed through to any significant degree.

This is also what occurred when Trump put the tariffs on China in his first term. The conventional wisdom was that we would see increased prices on Chinese goods but it never materialized.

One reason that you are not likely to see consumer prices rising to reflect the tariff cost on imported goods is because the tariff is levied on the import price.

This the cost before a distributor, wholesaler and a retailer marks up the price and takes their share of the profit.

For example, imported clothing might sell at retail for 3x-5x of what the cost that the tariff is calculated on.

A $50 shirt might have been imported at $10 from China or Vietnam. A 15% tariff would only shave $1.50 off of the shirt's margin. It might be just as easy to eat most of this cost than attempt to pass it through.

When you are dealing with products such as motor vehicles, the importer has to compete with American vehicle manufacturers that are not subject to the tariff.

The import has to be cost competitive with the domestic vehicle or overall sales will suffer.

That is why when you see the analysis of the U.S. tariffs on European automaker they are all cutting their profit forecasts. The tariff is not easily passed on to U.S. consumers. The Europeans are going to have to absorb it to stay competitive in the U.S. market.




Not much that was predicted by the naysayers about Trump's tariff plans has come true.

That is also true regarding the deals he has been able to negotiate thus far.

Let's take a look at the startling success that Trump has had in negotiating new tariff and trade agreements with some of our major trading partners.

United Kingdom (source)

General tariff on UK imports into the United States set at 10%. It was previously 3.4%.

Tariff on U.S. goods into the UK reduced from 5.1% to 1.8%.

UK opens market for U.S. ethanol, beef, animal feed, machinery, etc. that has been restricted in the past.

UK agrees to purchase $10 billion in airplane and parts from the U.S. (Boeing).


Vietnam (source)

20% general tariff on Vietnam imports into the Unite States. It was previously 0%.

40% tariff on goods made in China and transshipped through Vietnam.

0% tariff on U.S. goods into Vietnam. It was previously 5.1%.

The U.S. imported $125 billion in goods from Vietnam in 2024. It exported $12 billion to Vietnam.


Japan (source) 

15% reciprocal tariffs.

Japan opens market to U.S. vehicles, rice and more.

Japan to invest $550 billion in the United States


Indonesia (source) 

 0% tariffs on 99% of U.S. exports.

 Ends all non-tariff barriers.

19% tariffs on Indonesian imports (was 3.2%).

Major sales of U.S. energy, agriculture, and Boeing jets.

Indonesia must adopt U.S. labor & IP protections.


Of course, this week saw the announcement of the largest trade agreement ever signed in world history between the United States and the European Union.

The EU trade deal contains these key provisions.

European Union (source)

Establishes a general 15% tariff on imports from the EU compared to an average of 4.8% previously.

The EU will generally reduce tariffs on U.S. goods. For example, U.S. cars imported to Europe will be reduced from 10% to 2.5%.

In addition, the EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy between now and 2028 and invest an additional $600 billion in the United States over that period.

The EU has also agreed to purchase hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. manufactured military equipment.

How was Trump able to negotiate such a favorable trade deal for the United States?

He had LEVERAGE.

Bill Mitchell puts it in very simple terms that almost anybody can understand.




I wrote about the tariff issue in early April right after Trump announced his plan and the significant leverage that the United States had in all of this.

Looking at the numbers it is clear that if the United States is going to get to a place with free and fair global trade it needs to look at the tariff situation globally.

It should also be evident in looking at the numbers that the United States has a lot more leverage in a trade war scenario than our trading partners who are benefiting by almost $1 trillion per year.

Trump understands the big picture. He also understands the long game. Trump also understands that to win you have to fight and take calculated risks. Of course, it is easier to do that if you have less to lose than the other guy.

On this issue the United States has a lot less to lose than anyone else.

The Financial Times is no fan of Donald Trump.

However, in the aftermath of the EU trade deal, they published this.



 

It is also not unusual to see takes like this on social media.

Link: https://x.com/LinaSeiche/status/1949662636292899221

It should be noted that the trade situation is not as one-sided as it appears to be.

EU countries have long used value-added taxes that act as tariffs to protect their markets and raise revenues.

Those taxes are still in place and they are substantial.

The average VAT rate in Europe is 21% and ranges from a low of 17% in Luxembourg to 27% in Hungary.

The United States has no comparable border tax so there is still an imbalance in the trade tariff/tax situation between the U.S. and EU. It just is not as large as it was before.

Where does this go from here?

The US/EU tariff deal still needs to be approved by the EU Parliament.

This is not assured. There are plenty in Europe who are not happy about this deal, most particularly France.

In the end, my guess that they will not have much choice to accede due to the leverage Trump has.

At the same time, the agreement that Trump has reached with the EU puts even more pressure for China and Canada to come to terms with Trump.

Talks are ongoing with China right now and an extension is possible beyond the current deadline of August 12 that Trump previously established.

However, the clock is ticking on Canada where it does not appear any talks are progressing. Canada could be facing a financial crisis if the U.S. market is effectively cut off to them due to the fact that 22% of the country's GDP is tied to exports to the United States.

At this point, it appears that Trump has been a lot smarter than his critics thought he was.

It also might prove true that tariffs are not anywhere near as terrible as we were told.

Time will tell the true story as it always does.