This and That---2024 Post-Election Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on the 2024 election.

Blue Hawaii

Hawaii is one of the most reliably blue states in the nation. 

If there is a Democrat on the ballot they are most certainly going to be elected.

Hawaii has a Democrat Governor and two Democrat U.S. Senators.

Both of its members of Congress are also Democrats.

In the most recent state legislative session, the state Senate had 23 Democrats and 2 Republicans.

In the State House there were 44 Democrats and 6 Republicans.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_State_Legislature

After the 2024 election, it appears that the GOP will pick up one state Senate seat and two House seats.

In the recent Presidential vote in Hawaii, Harris defeated Trump by 23.1% points. That followed D.C. (85.8 points), Vermont (31.8), Maryland (26.8) and Massachusetts (24.8) as the friendliest to Democrats.

However, Hawaii did shift six points to Trump between 2020 and 2024.

One interesting factoid I came across  recently was that in 2020, on the island of Ni'ihau, Trump received 100% of the vote. Trump  beat Biden 43-0. Ni'ihau is at the far end of the Hawaiian islands chain off the southwest coast of Kaua'i.

I was curious how the vote went in 2024.

Turnout was down and one voter went rogue this year.

All votes were cast by mail in Ni'ihau.

22-1 for Trump.

Source: https://x.com/AudittheVoteHI/status/1855673577829486793

I guess this proves that not everything is blue in Hawaii.

However, there are blues in Hawaii that are a sight to behold.

View from my hotel room on Waikiki Beach last month

Not In My Backyard

It is interesting to see the vote shift from 2020 to 2024 in this area of New York City where a massive migrant shelter was built with the influx of illegals into the city during the Biden/Harris years.

 A Melting Plot Goes MAGA

The city of Passaic, New Jersey is a melting pot.

A very small traditional white population of about 4% of its population.

74% Hispanic.

15% Orthodox Jewish.

7% Black.

Consider the 2024 vote totals compared to prior years.

Ramapo, New York

Ramapo, New York is in Rockland County about 30 miles north of New York City.

It is the home to a large Orthodox Jewish community.

Take a look at the votes in a few of the precincts in Jewish neighborhoods in that city.

Source: https://www.rocklandcountyny.gov/departments/board-of-elections/election-results

Source: https://www.rocklandcountyny.gov/departments/board-of-elections/election-results

Source: https://www.rocklandcountyny.gov/departments/board-of-elections/election-results

Not bad for someone the Democrats called a fascist Nazi.

However, what is even more incredible is that the same people in Ramapo Precinct 35 who voted for Trump , 542-0,. in Ramapo Precinct 118, 593-0, and in Ramapo Precinct 55, 966-2, split their ticket and voted for Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand in the U.S. Senate race by overwhelming margins the other way.

Source: Source: https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/rockland-county-ny/elections/GE2024Results/ballot-items/01000000-4482-4645-ce33-08dcf2403026

Source: https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/rockland-county-ny/elections/GE2024Results/ballot-items/01000000-4482-4645-ce33-08dcf2403026

Source; https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/rockland-county-ny/elections/GE2024Results/ballot-items/01000000-4482-4645-ce33-08dcf2403026

That is some world class ticket splitting!

Mischief in Milwaukee?

You might remember seeing this graphic of how the vote totals came in between Trump and Biden in 2020 in the swing states starting around 4am on the day after the election.

This huge spike in the vote totals for Joe Biden fueled many of the suspicions about the integrity of the 2020 election.

Fortunately, the margin of Trump's victory in these states this year has helped to build more confidence in the integrity of the 2024 results.

However, take a look at this graphic of the 2024 Senate vote in Wisconsin.

It looks very similar to what occurred in 2020.

We again saw a surge of votes benefiting the Democrats after 4am on the day after the election.

It is reported that almost all of these votes came in from the city of Milwaukee.

Trump's margin of victory in the state was reduced by these votes but those votes turned Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde from a winner to a loser. He lost by .9% of the votes---about 45,000.

Most urban areas saw voter turnout decline from 2020.

Milwaukee had 78% of its registered voters cast a ballot in 2020.

In 2024, turnout in Milwaukee increased to 85%.

Compare the turnout in Milwaukee compared to other large Rust Belt cities in 2024.

Source: https://x.com/MVRedPodcast/status/1854591131897459159

Was there mischief in Milwaukee?

Something doesn't add up somewhere in all of this.

Threat to Democracy

A campaign theme of Kamala Harris and the Democrats was that Donald Trump was a "threat to democracy".

Oprah Winfrey stated in Kamala's final rally that if Trump was elected it might be the last time anyone was allowed to vote.

Source: https://twitter.com/i/status/1856351688531095832

How did that messaging work out?

The CNN exit poll found that of those most concerned about a threat to democracy in the election, Trump was favored 58%-40%.

Link: https://x.com/BoLoudon/status/1856146448233980365

It turned out that the messaging of the Democrats might actually have been to the benefit of Trump.

That also may partially explain the following.

Money Is Not Everything

Here are the amounts of campaign funds raised by the Harris/Biden and Trump campaigns based on Federal Election Commission data through October 16, 2024.

Harris and Biden raised over $2 billion between them.

Source: https://www.fec.gov/data/raising-bythenumbers/

It appears there may be double counting here as Kamala apparently inherited $486 million from Biden. that is included in her receipts number as a transfer.

However, that still means Kamala had $1.5 billion to spend on her campaign of $2 billion in campaign receipts.

Trump raised $388 million.

Despite this huge fundraising advantage, there are reports that the Harris campaign is at least $20 million in debt. 

When all the bills come in it might be even higher.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-democrat-officials-worried-tens-millions-harris-campaign-debt-could-problem-report

Trump finished with a surplus of about $35 million according to reports.

What happened to the Harris campaign funds?

FEC records show at least $20 million went for payments associated with celebrity appearances at her rallies with Beyonce, Oprah, Katy Perry and the like.

Source: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/nov/11/kamala-harris-campaign-spent-20-million-celebrity-/

FEC records indicate that Kamala Harris spent $582 million on staff costs.

Trump spent $10 million on staff,

Credit: https://x.com/patrickbetdavid/status/1855459510627803427

Is there a lesson here on who would do a better job of spending your money?

Of course, Trump did not miss an opportunity at an epic troll in stating that the GOP should consider paying off the Harris campaign debt for the sake of national unity.

Who knows what the next four years will bring?

The only thing that is certain is that it will not be boring.

The Titan of Turnout

A year ago there were many who argued that Donald Trump should not be the Republican nominee in 2024 as he was too polarizing, he could not possibly win and would also hurt GOP chances to retake the Senate.

This is what I wrote in a blog post in April, 2023 titled, "Hobson's Choice".

It goes without saying Trump is a polarizing figure. 

Many love him but many cannot stand him.

It is also undoubtedly true that Trump has a unique ability to attract many voters who are otherwise disaffected from politics.

The question that remains is whether the numbers of those voters outnumber those who he turns off?

The election results in 2024 may be decided on that answer.

Last week we got the answer.

Those results also made clear that there is no Republican in existence today that can match the ability to turnout and energize voters in the same way that Donald Trump can.

In that same blog post I also reiterated my belief that Trump was more likely to win the primary election vote and be on the general election ballot than Biden.

Right now I actually believe that it is more likely that Donald Trump will be on the general election ballot than Joe Biden.

Trump clearly carries a lot of baggage but his support among Republicans has solidified over the last few months as it appears that he has been unfairly targeted by the FBI in the documents controversy and in the the New York indictment.

Trump only had a margin of 11 points over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis among potential GOP primary voters in January. He now is up 37 points over DeSantis.

Yes, DeSantis has not formally announced he is running yet but Trump has clearly strengthened his position since the beginning of the year compared to DeSantis.

I also continue to believe that the worse matters get in the United States with Biden at the helm the better Donald Trump looks to voters.

Let's look at some data that shows the electoral strength of Donald Trump.

Despite all that Trump has been through over the last eight years, his vote totals only went in one direction---UP---despite all the efforts that have been made by the media and political establishment to diminish and denigrate him over that time.

In addition, while Trump has now exceeded his vote total from 2020 by about 1 million votes, Kamala Harris is running about 10 million fewer votes than Joe Biden received four years ago---71.8 million vs. Biden's 81.3 million.

The real power of the Trump political brand is seen by comparing the votes for Trump to the Republican candidates for Senate in various states.

Let's look at a dozen high profile states that were either considered battleground states and/or had highly contested Senate races.

Six of these states were won by Democrat Senate candidates. Six were won by the Republican Senate candidates. 

In every one of these states Trump's margin in the state was better than the Republican candidate.

For example, in Minnesota, Trump only lost by 4.2 points but the Republican candidate for Senate lost to incumbent Amy Klobuchar by 15.8 points. Trump's margin was 11.6 points better.

In Montana, Tim Sheehy won by 7.4 points over incumbent Jon Tester. However, Trump won the state by 20.1 points over Harris, a 12.7 better point margin than Sheehy had.

However, Trump also ran 13.7 points better than incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer in Nebraska and 5.2 points better than two-term Senator Ted Cruz in Texas.

Trump ran 7.8 points better than Kari Lake in Arizona and 7.5 points better than Bernie Moreno in Ohio.

In these 12 states, Trump outperformed the Republican Senatorial candidate by an average margin of 6.2 points.

The experts that argued that Trump would lose and be a disaster for the Republican party could not have been more wrong.

Those that got it right were the Republican primary voters who were smarter than the experts.

A big reason for this was Trump's ability to turnout those disaffected voters.

There is little question that Trump is "The Titan of Turnout".

It is also interesting to take another look at the voter shifts between 2020 and 2024.

The graph below is based on the AP Vote Cast exit poll data.

This is a data set and differs somewhat from the CNN exit poll I referenced in my "Election Data Dump" post last week, 

Based on this data, you could also refer to Trump as "The Sultan of Shift".

Trump shifted large groups of minorities and younger voters to his side between 2020 and 2024 led by Black and Latino men and 18-29 age voters of all races.

The AP vote cast data shows that Trump gained 25 points with Black men, 21 points with 18-29 age voters and 19 points with Latino men.

However, he also saw significant gains with women, especially minority and single women.

Trump gained 12 points with Latino women, 7 points with white college women, 7 points with single women , 6 points with Black women and 3 points with married women

The only groups he was steady with or lost just a few points were older white voters that generally lived in urban areas with post-graduate degrees.

Credit: https://x.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1856315105589293101
(click to enlarge)

Trump won the election with the turnout of votes of groups that the Kamala Harris campaign argued were going to be victims of an oppressive racist, xenophobic, misogynistic Trump agenda.

Trump fared worse compared to 2020 with what is supposed to be the privileged, older white patriarchy that the Democrats continue to argue is engaged in systemic oppression in this society.

It seems that there were many voters who did not buy what Kamala Harris and the Democrats were selling.

There might be another lesson in all of this as well.

Donald Trump will assume office next year more popular and with greater broad-based support than in either of his other elections.

This is despite repeated efforts over the last decade to marginalize him, mute him, impeach him, bankrupt him and jail him.

This post on X provides just a few examples of how massive the effort was to undermine Trump.

At times it is difficult to remember all that Trump has had to endure.

Trump escaped all of these efforts to trap and thwart him like a modern-day Houdini.

It may be time to stop underestimating Donald J. Trump and find out what he can accomplish without constantly being harassed.

I would like to find out.

How about you?

It Doesn't Matter Who Is President

"It doesn't matter who is President."

This is something I have heard a lot over the years.

It is more prevalent with younger voters and those who often don't bother to vote.

It should not be forgotten that there are over 75 million people who are eligible to vote in the United States who have never bothered to register.

We are a mere five days after the 2024 Presidential election has been called.

Let's look at some headlines over the last few days.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/hamas-calls-immediate-end-war-after-trump-election-win-1981571

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mexico-s-migrant-caravan-breaking-up-after-trump-victory-sows-uncertainty/ar-AA1tHSCV?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=87d8a32c01404280bd579b537e28db2d&ei=56

Source: https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-chief-suggested-to-trump-buying-us-gas-instead-of-russia-s-451c5356

Source: https://fortune.com/asia/2024/11/06/china-says-it-hopes-for-peaceful-coexistence-with-u-s-as-trump-clinches-win/

Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/diplomat-says-qatar-pulling-out-of-gaza-mediation-role-confirms-hamas-to-be-ousted/

Source: https://abc7ny.com/post/new-york-city-ending-voucher-program-allowed-migrant-families-buy-own-food/15523750/

Source: https://thehill.com/policy/international/4979324-putin-congratulates-trump-election/

Source: https://deadline.com/2024/11/stock-market-surges-donald-trump-2024-election-1236169001/

Dow Jones Average chart over the last month.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI

S&P 500 over the last month.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX

Source: https://apnews.com/article/bitcoin-crypto-donald-trump-election-c2e2a1a895288c5e9c0df2721012a5bb

Bitcoin chart over the last month.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=?qfsearchterm

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/susie-wiles-will-be-first-female-white-house-chief-of-staff-223921733588

Some on X with tongue firmly placed in cheek note that Trump is already bringing down prices.

 

The string of headlines like those above caused the internet satire site The Babylon Bee to post this meme.

Will Trump have anything to do when he is actually inaugurated?

The unfortunate reality is that there is plenty to do.

In fact, despite the euphoria right now among his supporters, the odds are high that there are massive challenges ahead for Trump.

You can be sure that those in the Big State, Big Media and Big Tech will be challenging him at every turn.

Add to this group Big Pharma now that Trump has added Robert F. Kennedy to his team in order to Make America Healthy Again.

The odds are also high that we will see a major recession, stock market correction,  or expanded war in the Middle East, Europe or Asia over the next four years.

It will also be a miracle if we don't face a major federal debt crisis in that time.

Federal debt as a % of GDP is now higher than what it was right after we borrowed heavily to fight and win World War II.

At the end of 2023, U.S. debt was 121% of GDP. 

It peaked at 119% in 1946.

The debt taken on for World War II became manageable over time because the economies of most countries around the world were devastated by the war.  This allowed the United States to dominate the world economy with large annual increases in GDP.

We are in a much different position today.

We also have to consider the possibility that any crisis ahead could be significant enough that the future of our society itself could rest in the balance.

This was true in previous Fourth Turning crisis periods in American history---the Revolutionary War, The Civil War, Great Depression and World War II.

You may notice that these Fourth Turning crisis periods are all separated by about 80 years.

1945 + 80= 2025

(If you want to know more about The Fourth Turning theory regarding the cycles of history I did a three part series of blog posts on the subject in July of this year here, here and here).

A major reason that I voted for Donald Trump in last week's election was that I was very sensitive to the threats to our society that we may face in the next four years.

This is a time when we need strong, courageous and indomitable leadership.

This is a time when we need someone who will fight without flinching or fear.

This is a time we need someone who is battle-tested and who has had to get in the ring against the longest of odds and survived.

I don't believe there is another human being alive on earth today who has faced more adversity and challenges than Donald Trump has over the years in both business and politics.

And he is still standing.

I am also confident that he will be ready and able to meet any challenges ahead.

That was no the case with his opponent or anyone else in the Democrat party right now.

You may not like his bluster or brashness or his talk and tweets. 

However, if we get into a full-scale Fourth Turning crisis, you better thank God Donald Trump is your President for the next four years.

Trump's resolve and resilience may make all the difference in the world.

It doesn't matter who is President?

It matters. It matters a great deal.

Election Data Dump

One of the reasons that I like politics and write about it in BeeLine is that it comes with a lot of data.

Data is the lifeblood of what I write about. It provides objective truths which should be the foundation of the analysis of any issue.

In the political area, data is very valuable in getting a better understanding of what voters are thinking about in their lives, the issues surrounding them and their feelings about those who desire to lead them.

There is a lot of data to sift through in the election from Tuesday night. It will require a deep dive and additional time to really understand the details that drove the final results.

However, here are some data nuggets I have come across so far in my research that I have found interesting.

Election Turnout

Before the election I wrote that turnout would be very important in determining the final result. I also was very clear that I did not see evidence that Democrats would be able to come anywhere close to matching their 2020 turnout numbers.

There are more votes to be counted, particularly in states in the Far West, that are slow in reporting final results. We have been told that there are 5 million more votes to count in California and 1 million in Nevada.

However, consider the vote totals in the Presidential race compared to recent years thus far.

Trump is very close to his vote total in 2024. When all votes are in he will very likely exceed the 74 million votes he received in 2020.

However, even if we are generous and say that Kamala will get to 72 million votes, she will still be  almost 10 million votes shy of what Joe Biden received in 2020.

What happened to those votes? A few undoubtedly switched to Trump but what is the explanation for the remainder when Trump's turnout clearly did not suffer?

In my pre-election forecast I predicted that overall turnout would not likely come close to the nearly 158 million who voted in 2020 due primarily to a much lower use of mail ballots.

Many states also cleaned up their registration rolls reducing registered voters. In 2022 there were 7 million fewer registered voters than in 2020---161 million vs. 168 million.

I suggested that I thought 150 million votes was a more likely target for 2024. We are currently at only 143 million votes cast in the Presidential election. 150 million looks like it might be close to the final number.

Democrats seem befuddled at what happened to their turnout compared to 2020.

Here are a couple of examples from faithful Democrats asking what is going on?

I had to chuckle when I saw this response to Deb on X.

I guess we will never know where those missing voters are that suppressed turnout this year.

Red Wave

A key reason that Trump won was that almost every county in the United States shifted toward the Republican in 2024 compared to the vote in 2020.

This map from The Financial Times graphically shows that shift.

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/392e1e79-a8c1-4473-ab51-3267c415b078

Some of the largest shifts were in and around the New York City area.

Bronx County shifted 10.51% points to the right.

Queens County shifted 10.46% to the right.

It is also interesting to see the large shift to the right along the border in Texas and all over California.

Notice as well a noticeable shift to the right in the D.C. suburbs in Virginia and Maryland.

This map has to be very concerning to those paying attention in the Democrat party.

That one lone large blue arrow in western Missouri shifting left was Jackson County at 11.63% points.

Why?

I have no idea about that one other than it has always been a strong Democrat county as the former home of Harry Truman in the suburbs of Kansas City.

Big Shifts

Big shifts in several large demographic groups were largely responsible for Trump's victory.

All of the data and graphs below are from CNN exit polls.

Trump gained an incredible 35 points between 2020 and 2024 with Latino men. There has been a 43 point shift to the right with this group since 2016.

Trump also gained 17 points with Latina women. It has shifted 22 points since 2016.

Despite all of the talk about a big shift in the votes of Black men, the NBC exit poll data does not show it.

The data only shows a 4 point shift toward Trump in 2024.

In total, Trump actually gained 7 points with women overall but only 5 points with men compared to 2020.

It seems that the abortion issue might not have been as important to the women's vote that Democrats expected.

A gender gap remains between women and men in their voting preferences for the two parties.

However, it was narrower in 2024 than in either 2016 or 2020.

One of the large groups that shifted to Trump in 2024 were younger voters.

Biden was +24 with younger voters but that shifted 13 points right in 2024.

The graphic below  provides a better perspective of how the 18-29 vote has shifted, broken down between men and women, since 2018.

Notice that most of the shift in this demographic is due to young men rather than women moving to Trump in 2024.

However, young women have still shifted 15 points right and men 32 points right since 2018.

The other important point to consider with this data is that once a person becomes more conservative politically they do not often revert to prior voting patterns.

Here is another way to look at the overall demographic data across various groups.

Trump has the most support from non-college men and women. However, that changed very little between 2020 and 2024. The same was true for white voters.

The biggest gains were among Hispanics, Asians and younger voters (18-29 and 30-44).

Trump actually lost a small amount of support of voters age 65+.

You can also see big shifts in county level data between 2020 and 2024.

There were not many counties in the United States where Trump did not gain in 2024.

It was almost the exact opposite for him between 2016 and 2020 in key demographics.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/presidential-election-2024-red-shift.html

What I find most interesting in all of this data is that Trump has gained more support among Hispanics than any other group by far between 2016 and 2020.

This is despite the fact that he has been continually denigrated by the media and Democrats for his views on illegal immigration. He has been called racist, xenophobic and a lot worse

In fact, Trump actually won the nation's county (Starr County, Texas) with the highest percentage Hispanic population  (98%) in the country. It is the first time that county has voted for a Republican since 1888. 

Source: https://apnews.com/article/texas-election-border-house-trump-7b3c5adae15344dcb54f36e25890d1e2

It seems that legal immigrants who are citizens (and vote) have the same concerns about illegal immigration as everyone else.

Who knew?

Straddling the Fence

Many politicians like to straddle the fence on difficult issues hoping they will not turn off voters on one side or the other.

Exhibit A---Kamala Harris in this election.

Kamala was trying to says things that satisfied both Jewish voters and Arab voters.

It seems that she did nothing but hurt herself with both groups.

In precincts in and around Detroit, Harris lost 20% of former Biden voters to Trump while also losing 70% of Arab/Bangladeshi voters.

That is not easy to do.

If we focus just on Dearborn, Michigan, which is reputed to be be most Arab-American city in the United States, you see how disastrous straddling the fence was for Harris.

Her support in Dearborn was not even half of what Biden received in 2020.

No one should also forget the fence straddling that Kamala did on the eve of the election when she refused to say how she voted on California Proposition 36 which would have increased penalties for certain thefts and drug crimes in the state

Kamala was a strong advocate for lowering penalties for shoplifting less than $950 when she was the California Attorney General. It has proved disastrous in the state. This ballot issue was put to the voters to reverse the insanity.

How did the vote go?

Prop 36 also got majority support in every county in the state.

Kamala Harris could not even take a position on this issue?

I guess she did not want to have to explain why she was for it before she was against it?

Compare this straddle with the clear position that Donald Trump took on illegal immigration from the first moment he ran for President.

At the Margin

This chart shows the shifts in state support for Trump in all 50 states and his plus or minus vote margin.

Vermont was the most pro-Harris state. Wyoming was the best Trump state in margin of victory.

Source: Financial Times

Trump gained support at the margin in 48 of the 50 states.

Where was the shift to Trump the greatest?

Many were blue states such as California, New York, New Jersey and Maryland.

However, he also expanded his margins in both Florida and Texas substantially.

There are a couple of interesting observations in looking at this margin data.

Trump was closer to winning New York (11.6 margin) than Harris was in Texas (13.8) or Florida (13.2)

Trump was closer to winning reliable blue states such as Illinois (8.6), New Jersey (5.1) or Minnesota (4.2) than Harris was in the former swing state of Ohio (11.2).

Voter ID

You look at this Voter ID data and wonder whether this a coincidence or there is a correlation.

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz only won two states that require Photo Voter ID ---New Hampshire and Rhode Island.

Almost all of the states she won came in states where absolutely no ID is required. The exceptions are Colorado, Virginia, Delaware and Connecticut.

All of her big electoral vote wins---California, Illinois, New York--have no ID required at all.

Bellwether Counties

How did the bellwether counties do this year that have been so good at predicting the winner of the Presidential election over the years?

It looks like they are back in the groove after missing badly in 2020.

 It remains a mystery as to why the predictive value of these counties failed us to such a degree in 2020.

Welcome Home Tim Walz!

Tim Walz will return to be Minnesota's governor after the defeat of the Harris/Walz ticket.

However, it has to hurt knowing that your home county (Blue Earth) in Minnesota was one of the counties that shifted from Democrat to Republican despite the fact you were on the ticket.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/minnesota

Different Perspectives

I thought this summary of how the voters in different European countries would choose between Trump and Harris was interesting.

Which countries favored Harris the most?

The Scandinavian countries.

 

Which countries tended to favor Trump?

It is almost all of the countries that were previously ruled by Communists in the Eastern Bloc.

Is there a lesson here?

Are there any other lessons to be learned in any of the rest of this election data dump?