BeeLine readers know that I like to analyze polling data in the lead up to elections.
I also like to look at polling data after the election.
You can often see a halo effect in the aftermath of an election in the polling data.
Winning candidates ften seem to be looked on more favorably after an election than they might have been before the election.
It is part of the human condition---people like to associate with winners and distance themselves from losers.
Joe Biden's was viewed favorably by about 49% of voters right before the 2020 election in the YouGov survey on that question..
His favorability increased to 54% by the time he was inaugurated.
Biden is 42% on that score today.
For the last three months of the Presidential race, Donald Trump was consistently viewed favorably by only 45% of registered voters.
In the wake of the election, Trump is now viewed favorably by 50% of registered voters in the YouGov survey. Trump actually has a + 1 net favorability score right now. He has never had a net positive favorability score since he first ran for President even after winning in 2016.
That is the halo effect.
You see the opposite effect with Kamala Harris. Her favorability started going south right after the election. Her net favorability is -7. That is eight points worse than Trump but is still six points better than Biden.
What I find most interesting in the favorability scores on Trump post-election are his numbers with young voters.
Young voters have been the most reliable Democrat voters imaginable since the Obama years.
They have routinely voted for the Democrats by 20-30 point margins. Biden beat Trump among 18-29 age voters 60%-36%. Hillary enjoyed a 30 point margin over Trump among this voting bloc in 2016.
Exit polls for 2024 indicate that Trump narrowed his loss among these 18-29 age voters to only 12 points (Harris 54%, Trump 42%). Most of this improvement resulted from Trump actually winning young male voters 49%-47% while losing among young females 37%-61%.
Considering all of that data as context, look at the favorability scores that young voters are giving Trump AFTER the election.
57% of age 18-29 voters in the YouGov poll say they have a favorable opinion of Trump after the election compared to only 38% who say they have an unfavorable opinion---a +19 net favorability score.
 |
| Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_WloY87T.pdf#page=10 |
To recap, Trump lost this age group by 12 points on November 5 but two weeks later he has a +19 net favorability with the same age group
That is one heck of a HALO.
 |
| Credit: https://www.newamericanjournal.net/2020/08/dumb-is-the-new-smart-and-smart-is-the-new-dumb/ |
What is also interesting in looking at the survey data is that Trump's highest favorability across all ages is with the 18-29 age group.
His lowest favorability score is with those age 65+ (-3 score) which have traditionally been the most Republican-leaning demographic.
YouGov is not providing gender breakdowns on the favorability data by age but Trump could only be seeing these numbers post-election if younger women were not driving some of the result as well.
Is it possible that bigger shifts in the political makeup of the country are underway beyond what we have already seen with the Democrats losing votes among the working class, Hispanics and African American populations?
If Democrats lose the young female vote, it is entirely possible that the party as we know it today will no longer exist in the near future.
J.D, Vance is another person who has seen huge increases in his favorability scores as is reported on in this Newsweek article.
 |
| Source: https://www.newsweek.com/jd-vance-favorability-popularity-campaign-election-polls-1986449 |
In September, Vance had a new favorability of -14 in the YouGov polling as he had to deal with an onslaught of initial attacks by Democrats and Big Media.
He narrowed that to -4 as more people saw Vance for themselves in the VP debate and in other appearances.
J.D. Vance is now +2 in net favorability after the election. He is +12 with younger voters but that still trails Trump by 7 points.
 |
| Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_WloY87T.pdf#page=10 |
The YouGov poll also shows that Trump is receiving favorable approval ratings on his handling of the Presidential transition thus far.
He has +15 approval with all adults and +12 with registered voters on that question.
Again, his highest approval is with the 18-29 age group (+28 net approval).
 |
| Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_WloY87T.pdf#page=10 |
You have to wonder whether the recent spate of young athletes doing the "Trump Dance" in celebration of athletic success on the football field, soccer pitch, golf course or boxing ring is a function of this favorability with this younger demographic?
 |
| Source: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-dance-full-list-us-athletes-1988047 |
Trump's major cabinet appointments that had been announced by the time that the YouGov poll was conducted have also generally been well received.
Only Matt Gaetz was modestly negative and this was in the face of overwhelming negative Big Media pushback on that selection.
 |
| Credit: https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1859278102062334151 |
Of course, Gaetz has now withdrawn from Attorney General consideration after key Republican Senators made it clear they would not support him. Four hard No's from Republicans made it clear Gaetz could not be confirmed.
Trump will make another pick for Attorney General that undoubtedly will also upset the D.C. establishment.
Trump, unlike a Democrat President like Biden or Obama, has to worry about getting the votes from his own party in support of his Cabinet selections. Biden did not have one Senate Democrat vote against his Cabinet picks. I cannot recall more than a handful of Democrat Senators ever voting against any of Obama's Cabinet appointments in either of his two terms.
Democrats always seem to play by different rules than Republicans.
For example, 20 Republicans ( including Collins, Murkowski and McConnell---Curtis was just elected to succeed Mitt Romney) voted for the confirmation of Merrick Garland as Biden's AG.
Every Democrat except Joe Manchin (who has now left the Democrat party) voted against confirming Trump's first AG Jeff Sessions in 2017. Only three Democrats voted to confirm Trump's second AG Bill Barr. This is despite the fact that Barr had already previously been AG in the George H.W Bush administration.
How exactly was Barr not qualified to serve?
We will see what the future holds on this score in the confirmation of Trump's Cabinet. However, it is unlikely that the Democrats have suddenly decided they are going to bring a bipartisan spirit to any proceedings involving Trump's picks.
It would seem far past the time that the Republicans recognize how the game is being played in D.C.
In the meantime, Trump does currently enjoy strong support for his signature issue of deporting illegal immigrants according to a poll from Echelon.
It remains to be seen whether Trump can maintain that popular support for deportations when the media starts playing images of the illegals (and their families) being loaded onto buses or airplanes and sent out of the country.
There is no doubt that Trump understands all of this.
Honeymoons don't last forever. After all, Trump has been married three times.
That is clearly shown in the U.K. after Keir Starmer of the Labour Party was elected Prime Minister last summer.
Keir Starmer enjoyed a very brief halo effect which quickly turned into one of the shortest honeymoon periods in history.
The Brits already want a divorce from the Labour Party's policies.
Those aligned against Trump have lost a little bit of their footing seeing the election results.
They are somewhat shell shocked right now.
How should they respond?
How will they respond?
You can be sure that the forces aligned against Trump will not quietly relinquish their power.
Take a minute and consider how big the forces are that are threatened by the Trump agenda.
You can be assured they will not go quietly into the night.
The only way for Trump to counteract these forces is with the continuing popular support of the American people.
Donald Trump is going to need to retain that halo effect for an extended period of time if he is going to be able to fulfill his promise to "Make American Great Again".
In the end, the American people get the government they are willing to stand up for and support.
No comments:
Post a Comment