One year from today is Presidential Inauguration Day. Will President Obama be able to overcome the economy and a high disapproval rate to win re-election? Or will the Republicans be able to successfully challenge for the Presidency from the current field of candidates?
I think Romney, Gingrich and Santorum would all be worthy challengers to President Obama. I stated well before the Iowa caucuses that I thought they were the best candidates in the field based on their debate performances. They have each showed that they have the depth and breadth of experience to be President. I like all of them. I am pleased that they are still standing.
Ron Paul is also still standing but recent polling data shows that only 29% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters view him as an acceptable candidate. By contrast, 59% of Republicans view Romney as acceptable in the same poll. Ron Paul's support is passionate but it is narrow. I see no path for him forward in the Republican primary process. He is in the race to influence the policy debate and the direction of the party platform.
Tomorrow's vote in South Carolina is make or break time for Gingrich. If he wins, he gains some valuable momentum going into Florida and he stays alive. If he loses to Romney by double digits, he is probably done. His feisty debate performance on Thursday night has created a lot of positive buzz. However, if it does not translate to a victory it could actually hurt him. Expectations have increased for Newt. If expectations do not become results he will be hurt and Romney will benefit.
Santorum continues to be steady. Gingrich provides the bombast for those seeking that idealized conservative candidate. Santorum is the ballast. He is stable and unwavering and he has been the candidate that has most exceeded expectations. Either Bombast or Ballast will likely continue beyond South Carolina and Florida to challenge Romney. Who that is will depend on who can raise the money.
Money is the name of the game right now for everyone but Romney. He can go the distance. No one else can move forward unless they can attract money. Neither will be able to attract money unless they win some states. There is a very limited supply of money for candidates who cannot win.
Speaking of money, if you had to put down money on this race right now the only bet is Romney. He is bringing in high profile endorsements almost every day. The smart money that was on the sidelines is moving to him as well.
Watch South Carolina's results and then watch any endorsements leading up to Florida. If he wins South Carolina, it would surprise me if we don't then see Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio jump on the bandwagon and endorse The Bet before the Florida primary. In that case we could very well know the name of the next President 364 days before Inauguration Day.
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