- I previously wrote that I thought that the three strongest candidates were Romney, Gingrich and Santorum based on their past records and performance in the debates thus far. That evaluation seems to have been endorsed by the caucus voters in Iowa where these candidates took three of the top four spots.
- Ron Paul came in third place but I don't see him as being able to move much beyond this level of support in subsequent primaries. He probably has the most committed base of supporters but his support is deeper than it is broad. However, many of his positions, particularly on foreign policy, are far out of the Republican mainstream. His ability to raise money and his loyal support could allow him to stay in the race until the end. This would give him a greater ability to influence the GOP platform this year than he did four year ago especially on the domestic side with his economic and monetary policy positions.
- I continue to believe there is one overriding issue for Republican primary voters. It is not the economy, the budget, health care, Iran or abortion. It is the ability to beat Barack Obama. When all is said and done I am convinced that this is the issue that will be the deciding factor for most Republican voters. At this point, Romney polls the best against Obama. This is his biggest asset. It provides him a lot of protection against uncertainty about his conservative credentials. If the anti-Romney candidate that emerges (Santorum?) can show that he has comparable polling numbers against Obama it could spell a big problem for Romney down the road. For this reason Romney needs to finish this off as quickly as he can. The longer the process continues the greater risk to him that someone will begin to convince voters that they can also beat Obama.
- The other factor favoring Romney at this point is his substantial war chest. He has the most money on hand and he also has access to more money going forward than the other candidates. Do not forget that he also could choose to fund his campaign from his considerable wealth. In 2008, he kicked in almost $50 million of his personal funds to his campaign. He has not put any of his money into this race as of the last reporting period.
- Rick Santorum emerged from the Hawkeye Hangover as the most likely anti-Romney in the race. He follows Bachmann, Perry, Cain and Gingrich in taking this lead in this challenging position. To be a long-term player he needs to be able to do 3 things. First, he needs to be able stand up to the increased scrutiny and also be able to make a connection with national voters. Second, he needs to raise the money to compete and do it in a very short period of time. Third, he needs to be able to make the case to Republican voters that he can beat Barack Obama. None of these are easy tasks especially in the short period of time he needs to do it in.
- I was asked by someone today if I thought Rick Santorum could beat Barack Obama. I think he definitely can and I think he is in a much better position to do so than any of the other candidates except for Romney right now. In this respect, Santorum is a much stronger candidate than Gingrich. Newt came to this race with so much baggage that he was like a horse carrying 150 lbs in a race when everybody else was only carrying 125 lbs.
- If you have not seen Rick Santorum on the stump I urge you to view his speech last night in Iowa. I think it pretty well summarizes his strengths as a candidate. Santorum is not to be taken lightly. He is a poised and attractive candidate on the campaign trail. He is a good retail politician which he proved in Iowa. He also has a fire in the belly. You don't travel to 99 counties in Iowa in a pick-up truck unless you do. He has a proven record in attracting independents and Democrats in his past races. In this way, he is very similar in having the potential to attract blue collar Democrats much like Ronald Reagan did. He beat a 7-term Democrat in his first Congressional race in a heavily Democratic district 1990. His district was redrawn in 1992 and he won re-election with 61% of the vote in a district with a 3:1 Democrat registration advantage. He beat a Democrat incumbent Senator in 1994 and was re-elected in 2000 with a 52%-46% margin. George W. Bush lost Pennsylvania to Al Gore the same year by 46%-51%.
- New Hampshire is next up and Mitt Romney is the prohibitive favorite. As a result, it becomes an expectations game. If he does not win big, it will hurt him. If he meets expectations, it will give him momentum heading to South Carolina. If he wins there he will be hard to catch in Florida and beyond. It is difficult to see where the money is going to come to keep the other players in the game if that occurs. Expectations will also be working for and against Santorum. If he can get into the mid-teens or above in N.H. he will begin to look like a serious contender. If he can follow this with a first or second place finish in South Carolina it will truly be Game On! in Florida and beyond.
- The wild cards are Perry and Gingrich. Perry is done as a potential nominee but has the money to continue to play it out in South Carolina. How much his presence will hurt Santorum in this critical state is the big question. Gingrich was still the leader in the last Real Clear Politics poll average in South Carolina so he should not be written off just yet. However, these polls were done in mid-December and a lot has changed. In addition, no candidate in this primary process has been able to recover once they fell from grace. South Carolina will be make or break time for Newt. If Santorum overtakes him there, Newt will be effectively done.
Presidential politics is great entertainment. The best reality show going this Winter. Stay tuned!
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