Don't Think Fast With Obama

I am currently reading Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. Kahneman is the world's foremost scholar on neuroeconomics and how we make decisions.  Adam Smythe, who reviewed the book on Amazon, does a much better job of summarizing the book than I could so a tip of the hat to Adam.

The title of this book comes from Kahneman's discussion of two simple models of how people think. "System 1" thinking corresponds to fast, intuitive, emotional and almost automatic decisions, though it sometimes leaves us at the mercy of our human biases. "System 2" thinking is more slow-going and requires more intellectual effort. To nobody's surprise, we humans are more likely to rely on System 1 thinking, because it saves us effort, even if it can lead to flawed thinking. Here is a quick way Kahneman uses to illustrate System 1 and System 2 thinking. Suppose that a bat and ball together cost $1.10 and that the bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? Many people, relying mainly on System 1 thinking, will quickly say $0.10, but the correct answer is five cents. Think about it.

The bottom line is that when we are using System 1 thinking we are much more susceptible to errors in our judgments.  We can be lulled into a false sense of security with this fast thinking.  Anything that makes it easier for the associative machine in your brain to work will also bias your thinking.  A perfect example is familiarity.  Generally, if something is familiar you feel more confident and secure.  This can lead you astray "as a reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth" according to Kahneman.  In fact, authoritarian institutions and marketers have known this for a long time.  In effect, if you repeat a lie often enough it will tend to be believed.  This is particularly true if it is repeated often enough by an authority figure.

Keep this background in mind when you consider President Obama consistently repeating falsehood after falsehood about his record on energy.  Today he was in Cushing, Oklahoma trying to keep telling Americans he is pro-energy and pro-development.

What are the real facts?  Powerline reports on the statement of Thomas Pyle, President of the Institute for Energy Research, in response to President Obama's attempts to confuse your System 1 thinking.

President Obama wants to deceive the American people into believing that he’s somehow responsible for the southern segment of the Keystone XL pipeline, much like he wants them to think he’s responsible for increased oil and gas production in the United States. Neither claim is true, and the president knows it. 

The administration has blocked full development of the Keystone XL pipeline, from delays last fall to the outright rejection of the pipeline permit earlier this year. The president wants to reject the pipeline, and yet take credit for approving it. Similarly, he’s closed development of millions of acres of onshore and offshore federal lands for oil and gas production, while attempting to take credit for production increases on state and private lands where he has no role.

Just this week, the Congressional Research Service released a report showing that federal oil production represents 7.5 percent of the total oil produced from all U.S. lands in 2011, despite the fact that the federal government owns more than 30 percent of the lands with oil producing potential.

And the Energy Information Administration released data this month that shows oil production on federal lands is down 13 percent this year under the Obama administration. Natural gas production is at a 9 year low. These energy facts stand in stark contrast to the President’s bogus claims.

Today, the Washington Post “downgraded” the president’s record of truthfulness on America’s vast oil resources. The administration continues to claim that the U.S. only has 2 percent of the world’s oil resources. But according to his own administration’s data, America has 200 years of domestic oil supply at current consumption levels. And that’s not counting Canadian oil that the Keystone XLpipeline would bring to U.S. refineries.

Had the president authorized the Keystone XL permit in January – when he denied it – America would be well on our way to bringing more than 700,000 barrels of Canadian oil on line. That’s more than twice the oil that was produced on federal onshore lands last year, and it could have created as many as 20,000 jobs in the process.

The glaring hypocrisy of the president’s speech today is that he announced that his administration would fast-track approval of a pipeline project that the White House has no control over. And if the president has the ability to fast-track permits, why has he waited until today to use that executive authority? And why only for this project?

This administration’s record speaks for itself. For more than three years, President Obama has implemented a three part energy strategy: delay, deny, and deceive.

The most fraudulent statement he continues to make is his claim that the U.S has only 2% of the world's oil resources.  He gets that number by only counting current "proved" reserves from current and existing oil fields where drilling is being done.  This chart from Investors Business Daily tells the whole story and the facts to back it up which are taken from various government reports (yes, the federal government that President Obama oversees.)

At least 86 billion barrels of oil in the Outer Continental Shelf yet to be discovered, according to the government's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.

About 24 billion barrels in shale deposits in the lower 48 states, according to EIA.
Up to 2 billion barrels of oil in shale deposits in Alaska's North Slope, says the U.S. Geological Survey.

Up to 12 billion barrels in ANWR, according to the USGS.

As much as 19 billion barrels in the Utah tar sands, according to the Bureau of Land Management.

Then, there's the massive Green River Formation in Wyoming, which according to the USGS contains a stunning 1.4 trillion barrels of oil shale — a type of oil released from sedimentary rock after it's heated.

A separate Rand Corp. study found that about 800 billion barrels of oil shale in Wyoming and neighboring states is "technically recoverable," which means it could be extracted using existing technology. That's more than triple the known reserves in Saudi Arabia.

All told, the U.S. has access to 400 billion barrels of crude that could be recovered using existing drilling technologies, according to a 2006 Energy Department report.

When you include oil shale, the U.S. has 1.4 trillion barrels of technically recoverable oil, according to the Institute for Energy Research, enough to meet all U.S. oil needs for about the next 200 years, without any imports.

Get familiar with the facts and engage your System 2 thinking and ignore System 1 when it comes to utterances from Mr. Obama on energy.