Mitt Math

Super Tuesday is behind us and it seems to be a good time to revisit the Republican Presidential Primary race.

I wrote in December before the primary season began that I believed that Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum were the strongest potential Republican candidates in the race.  The voters have agreed with that assessment.  There have been primaries or caucuses in 22 states thus far.  Romney has won 14 contests, Santorum has won 6 times and Gingrich once.  Of almost 7 million votes cast for these top 3 (Ron Paul has captured less than half of the votes of #3 Gingrich) Romney has garnered 46% of the votes, Santorum 28% and Gingrich 26% according to Real Clear Politics.

However, delegates are what matter when you are looking to gain the Republican nomination.  It takes 1,144 to win in Tampa in August.  Romney has 409, Santorum 163, Gingrich 111 and Ron Paul 61 through Super Tuesday.  There is a long way to go but catching Romney in the delegate count is a lot like    trying to graduate cum laude from college when you have a 2.7 GPA halfway through your Sophomore year.  It may be mathematically possible but you need to pull down nothing but A's the rest of the way.

Senator Santorum and Speaker Gingrich are in a similar position.  Santorum needs to win an estimated 64% of the remaining delegates and Gingrich needs 67%.  Romney only needs to win 48% to seal the deal.  This is the Mitt Math that puts Romney in the driver's seat.

At this point it is difficult to see a path that would lead anyone else but Romney to get the delegates they need before the convention.  The primary calendar does not favor Romney over the next couple of weeks.    Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri and Louisiana all look to be good opportunities for Santorum or Gingrich to make some inroads into Romney's lead.  However, proportional voting is likely to limit the progress they can make.  For example, if you look at Santorum's wins in Oklahoma and Tennessee on Tuesday night, he only picked up 15 more delegates than Romney did out of 98 delegates in play.  On the other hand, Romney gained 113 delegates on Santorum from his wins in Virginia, Massachusetts and Idaho.

Split decisions are not going to work for Santorum or Gingrich over the next few weeks.  They need to pick up delegates and shut out Romney in these upcoming races or the odds get much longer.  However, even if they can pull this off, states like Illinois, Wisconsin, Maryland are next on the horizon in late March and early April and look promising for Romney based on past results.

The date that I am looking at very closely on the primary calendar is April 24.  231 delegates are at stake in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware on this day.   This may prove to be the defining moment in the campaign.  All of the states but Pennsylvania appear to be good territory for Romney.  If he falters, it could be the opening the challengers need to take it all the way to Tampa.  On the other hand, if he comes through strong and also gives Santorum all he can handle in the Keystone State, it might put Romney in a position to walk the rest of the way to the finish line.

Looming large if the primary season stays competitive beyond April are the elections in Texas (May 29) and California (June 5).  327 delegates are in play-155 in Texas and 172 in California.  Those two states represent almost 30% of the delegates a candidate needs for the nomination.  This is the big prize that keeps hope alive for the challengers.  Texas is a winner take all state if one candidate takes over 50% of the total vote.  California is winner take all on a district by district basis.  There is a lot of potential for big gains here but will it be too late for the challengers?  Unless Santorum or Gingrich can close the delegate gap with Romney over the next month, it may not matter.  Keep your eye on the Mitt Math to see if it will matter.