Polls and Politics

In my last post I wrote about the 3 major factors that will determine this year's Presidential race as I look at the race right now.  Of course, there is always the wild card.  The potential gaffe by a candidate or an external event that changes the dynamic quickly (look no further than the financial meltdown that was occurring almost exactly four years ago).  Barring the wild card, these are the difference makers

1. The Presidential debates.
2. The energy of Republican voters compared to Democrat voters to get to the polls.
3. The Independent vote.

Let's look further at point #2 in more detail.  This is probably the most important factor in the accuracy of any poll.  

Polls are samples that are used to make a projection about the future.  It is not enough to know what someone tells you today, you also have to determine whether they will actually vote in November.  For example, only about 60% of eligible voters cast a ballot in 2008.  In the 2010 mid-term elections, only about 38% bothered to vote.

Turning out voters sympathetic to your party is critical in any election.  This is because if someone identifies themselves with a political party there is usually a 90%+ likelihood they will cast their vote for a member of that party.  This is a big reason why candidates trek from Cincinnati to Chillicothe to Canton for campaign apperances.  It is not so much as to convince new voters as to solidify their support with those that are already likely to vote for them already.  If you see a candidate or shake his hand you are much more likely to follow through and make sure you vote for him in November.  It becomes personal.

Many of the polls that we have been seeing recently are assuming that self-identified Democrats will outnumber Republicans in voting in November.  This was true in 2008 when Democrats had about a seven point advantage over Republicans in turning out.  Obama's candidacy in that year energized a lot of Democrats to get to the polls.  I am also sure that many likely Republican voters sat it out as they saw the writing on the wall before the sun even rose on election day.

Most of the polls right now are using models on party identification that are closer to 2008 than to 2010.     

Right on the heels of my earlier post about the importance of the Democrat/Republican split comes this interesting blog post by DaTechGuy that shows what has been occurring in Rasmussen's poll of party identification over the last several years.  Rasmussen is the only pollster I know of that polls this number monthly.

Here is a sampling of various months since 2006.  You can see the month-by-month numbers and complete analysis from DaTechGuy by going to the link above.  The numbers shown below show the Republican advantage/disadvantage based on party identification in the Rasmussen poll for that month.

November, 2004  (Bush re-elected)                                                      -1.6%

November, 2006  (D's pick up 31 seats in House and 5 in Senate)       - 6.1%

November, 2008 (Obama elected)                                                       - 7.6%

November, 2010 (GOP gains 63 House seats and 6 in Senate)           + 1.3%

August, 2011      (Failure to get debt limit deal, I's increase)                 + 0.5%

August, 2012      (Latest data)                                                             + 4.3%

As you can see, according to the Rasmussen data, the underlying political landscape is much different today than it was in 2006 and 2008.  However, most of the polls are assuming that Democrats will outnumber Republicans at the voting booth in November.  The Obama and Democratic machine may be able to turn out that vote like they did in 2008-by hook or by crook.  On the other hand, we also saw in 2010 what happened when Republican were energized and Democrats were less motivated to get to the polls.

This excellent chart by NumbersMuncher shows what is happening with the polls in a manner that is easy to grasp.  All of the major polls (except Rasmussen) are projecting Democrats to outnumber Republicans at the voting booths in November from 5 to 11 points.  This is the sole reason that these polls are showing a 2 to 7 point Obama advantage overall.  On the other hand, Rasmussen is projecting a 3 point Republican advantage right now that he translates to a 2 point Romney edge. 

Doug Ross sums up what appears to be this politization of the polls by the media this way.

So let's just get this straight: more people identify as Republicans than Democrats and Independents break by a double-digit margin for the Romney-Ryan ticket.

And, in the midst of an conflagration in the Middle East, QE3, and an economy back in recession, the media is trying to save this election for (Obama).

My advice to Democrats is be careful about drinking the kool-aid right now.  My advice to Republicans is to take heart in looking at the data.  However, recognize that Romney needs to have 4 or 5 big states (most particularly Florida and Ohio) fall his way to win.  In the meantime, there is a lot of campaign time left and 3 debates to go.  The first debate is October 3.  Let's see where we are in a little over two weeks.