Ship of Fooled

If there was one event that signaled to the world that we were facing a pandemic,  the likes of which we had not seen in 100 years, it was what we saw with the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan in February, 2020.

The Diamond Princess had arrived at its home port of Yokohama, Japan after leaving on a 15-day roundtrip cruise that included a stop in Hong Kong. It is there that an 80-year old passenger from Hong Kong disembarked the cruise after not feeling well for the first five days of the cruise. Upon seeking treatment he was given a Covid test and the rest is history.

The Diamond Princess ultimately returned to Yokohama on February 3, 2020 after 14 days (a day earlier than scheduled) with all of the passengers and a good portion of the crew quarantined in their cabins.

Passengers and crew were left quarantined on the ship in Yokohama Harbor for another two weeks days as tests were conducted daily to determine if they carried the virus which was then thought to have an incubation period as long as 14 days.

Ironically, I was on a ship in Yokohama harbor 18 months before for a day when there was fuel supply issue and we had to leave the dock and anchor for a day awaiting the dock opening so we could be refueled.

I can't imagine being quarantined in a ship cabin for that length of time but I can attest to the fact that the view from the cabin at night in Yokohama is spectacular.

This is the view from my cabin in October, 2018.

691 ultimately tested positive for the virus out of 2,666 passengers and 1,045 crew on the Diamond Princess..

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7156812

There could not be a much better place to observe the effects of a highly transmissible virus than in the confines of a cruise ship.

There were many important lessons to be learned about the virus in those early days if anyone was paying attention.

Despite the close quarters, the attack rate of the virus was less than 20%. Why did some people avoid being infected?

That attack rate was later confirmed in other studies involving members of the same household.

More than half of the Covid positive tests involved asymptomatic cases.

Cases were more predominant in the older passengers (average age in the 70's) than the younger crew members.

Source: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html

Seven deaths were later attributed to the infection from Covid on the Diamond Princess.

All were over the age of 70.

Keep in mind that all of this was known a month before the first lockdowns in the United States in March, 2020.

Fast forward to news from Australia last week.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-63605824

This was after a 12-day round trip cruise that had sailed around New Zealand.

In accordance with Australian rules, all 4,600 passengers and crew were fully vaccinated. Almost all were boosted. All passengers had to have a negative Covid test before boarding.

Source: princess.com

The vast majority of the cases were among the 3,300 older passengers. Only a small number of the crew were infected.

There have been no reported deaths thus far.

What I find interesting is the attack rates of the virus between 2020 and 2022.

2020 Diamond Princess (no vaccinations) 18.6%

2022 Majestic Princess (all vaccinated) 17.4%

There is almost no difference and undoubtedly the Majestic Princess numbers are undercounted as all passengers were allowed to leave the ship upon arriving in Sydney. There will undoubtedly be more positive cases discovered.

I can't think of a better example to show the utter insanity of the Covid policies that were implemented, most particularly the vaccine mandates.

It is also interesting to look at the experience of Australia before and after vaccinations were introduced to its population.

Consider these charts on cumulative cases and deaths in Australia since the beginning of the pandemic.

Some would argue the rise in cases and deaths in Australia was due to the relaxation of harsh Covid lockdowns and mask rules.

However, isn't that in itself an admission that the Covid vaccines and mandates were totally useless to prevent infection and transmission?

There is also the issue of the excess deaths Australia is experiencing this year.

The graph below from an actuarial group in Australia compares the deaths in Australia for the first five months of 2022 compared to the previous seven years.

It shows that deaths in 2022 are running 12%-17% higher than previous years depending on the baseline   estimate that is used.

Source: https://www.actuaries.digital/2022/08/31/covid-19-excess-mortality-for-may-2022-at-similarly-high-levels-to-earlier-in-2022/

This is an enormous deviation from the norm.

To put how extraordinary that is, a 10% deviation would be considered three-sigma event and a once in 200 year event.

Only about 50% of the excess can be explained by reported deaths from Covid according to the actuaries.

What is causing the rest?

No one seems to want to know the answer at this point.

Just as the Diamond Princess provided a lot of answers early in the pandemic that seemed to have been ignored, perhaps one day we will find that there were also answers hiding in plain sight on what is causing these excess deaths in 2022.

Right now we continue to be sailing on the Ship of Fooled.