We have reached election day in the United States.
I wrote two weeks ago that this is the most difficult election I have ever seen in attempting to predict the outcome.
Polls and opinions about the results we are going to see come tomorrow are all over the map.
You would think that with the advent of early voting and the betting markets that we would have a better idea of what to expect.
All of this additional information seems to has just created more confusion.
As I wrote two weeks ago, this race will most likely be determined on turnout.
This is especially important in midterm elections when the number who vote is lower than in Presidential years.
On average since the 1930's, only about two thirds who vote in a Presidential year show up and vote in the midterms two years later.
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| Source: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/national-turnout-rates-graph/ |
The party that can get their voters to the polls (either early or on election day) is likely to win.
Who do the Democrats need to turn out?
Young and minority voters are critical.
Who do the Republicans need to vote?
Those who voted for Trump in 2024 and older white voters.
Republicans also have to hope that white, working class voters who were traditional Democrats, until Trump came on the scene, do not return to their Democratic roots.
Republicans are facing significant headwinds.
First, the President's party almost always loses Congressional seats in the midterms.
Second, prices at the gas pump right now are a daily reminder that things have not gone well in Iran.
On Christmas eve last year I filled up my car at Costco for $2.20 per gallon.
Recent prices are almost double that number.
This is a problem for Trump and Republicans.
As usual, early voting favors the Democrats.
Republicans need a big turnout today to overcome the turnout advantage that Democrats have in most states from early voting.
Two recent polls suggest that the Republicans also have some things going for them.
An NBC News poll that was just released this week showed that, despite the drag of gasoline prices, Republicans are +2 on the economy, +5 on controlling government corruption and +11 on immigration.
Democrats are only +1 on controlling inflation and +5 on the War in Iran.
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| Link: https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/2117325612855476694 |
In that same poll Republicans actually have a higher favorable rating than Democrats.
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| Link: https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/2117325612855476694 |
A New York Times/Siena poll also found that late deciders in key Senate races were choosing the Republican candidate by a margin of 9 points.
The bottom line is that there is almost no final result in the House or Senate that would surprise me other than Republicans picking up seats in both chambers or the Democrats doing better than historical midterm averages (net gains of 26 House seats and 4 Senate seats).
As for the critical Senate races in key swing states I would expect almost all of them could be decided by low single digit margins no matter who wins.
Regardless of who wins I do not see it having much effect on what Trump does over the next two years.
He will pursue his agenda.
He is indefatigable.
He never quits.
Those are the only things I am sure of on this morning of this election day.
I wrote this in 2019 when Trump was being attacked from all sides.
Say what you want about Donald Trump but the thing that sets him apart is that he is not afraid to take action. He is not afraid to face criticism. He is unrelenting. He persistently works to achieve his objectives. There is no quit in him.
There has been no politician like him in my lifetime. Perhaps that is because he did not spend a lifetime as a politician. Perhaps that is because he doesn't really need the job. Perhaps that is because he is an arrogant egomaniac. I don't know why he does what he does.
What I do know it that he is indefatigable. He relentlessly pushes his agenda forward. That, more than anything, defines who he is and why he should never be underestimated. That is also why the Democrats and liberal media despise and fear him so much.
It will be as true tomorrow no matter what happens tonight.
