The Midterms, History and Trump

We are under two weeks until the midterm elections will be decided.

Every day I am asked by someone about what I think the results will be in this election.

Will we see a blue wave in the midterm elections with scores of Democrats being swept into office based on voter dissatisfaction with Donald Trump?

Or will we see a red wall of Republicans and Independents turn out to defend the Trump agenda in November?

The media, many political pundits and most polls suggest that the Democrats have the numbers and energy to put Trump on the defensive.

I have been closely following politics for a long time and I have never seen an election cycle that is more difficult to handicap.

Polling seems to have become increasingly unreliable as more voters (particularly Republicans) do not want to participate in political surveys.

Since the betting markets have come on the scene I also question the extent to which some polls are being used to manipulate the betting odds. 

When money is in play you can be assured that someone is motivated to fix the game.

Early voting has also changed the game.

Polls are similar to making a bet before the game. 

Early votes are akin to actually getting a glimpse of the score of the game on your phone in the first quarter of play.

We may know who those early votes were for but in many states we know their political affiliation, age, race or other indicators.

I am following the early voting closely in a number of states but even then I see analysts who come to two different conclusions based on the same data.

It makes predicting anything very confusing and risky.

This causes me to take a step back and just look at the history involved in midterm elections.

Midterm elections are traditionally challenging for the incumbent President's party.

In the last 22 midterm elections (dating back to 1938) there have only been two times that the incumbent party gained House seats (1998 and 2002). 

The average loss of House seats in a midterm election is 26 since World War II.

Both times the President's party gained seats in the House were when the President (Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002) had approval ratings of over 60%.

Donald Trump's approval rating is far short of that.

The average loss of seats in the Senate for the incumbent President's party over midterm election cycles has been 4.

History suggests that it will be difficult for Republicans to avoid losses in the midterm elections. If these historical averages are to hold in 2026, the GOP would find themselves in the minority in both the House and Senate. Donald Trump would also find himself even more under siege in Washington, D.C.

Why do midterms present such a problem for the incumbent President's party?

I believe it is a result of several factors.

National Presidential elections have higher voter turnout and bring out more casual voters and independents.

Midterm elections are more partisan. You tend to get more voters by party affiliation. They are more hard core in their politics.

Voters are also more partisan when their person is not in The White House. Those in the party that is out of power are more motivated to send a message to the guy in The White House. 

Those with their guy in power are more complacent. You also typically see some disillusionment by voters two years into a President's term. The results have not matched the promises. This disenchantment causes loss of support for the President's agenda even among those who voted him into office.

One of the interesting facts about the Presidency of Barack Obama was that he won two elections comfortably but he suffered devastating losses in both of his midterm elections.

Democrats lost 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.

Democrats lost another 16 House seats and 9 additional Senate seats in 2014.

Barack Obama assumed the Presidency with overwhelming majorities in the House and Senate in 2009. GOP majorities were in place in both Houses when he left.

Obama was not able to translate his own electoral victories to success for his party in the midterms.

A big reason for this was that a lot of Obama's voters came from casual voters of which large numbers are young voters. They voted for Obama. A lot of them did not bother to vote at all in the midterms. 

This chart shows how the percentage of voters age 18-29 surged in 2008 and 2012 but fell off dramatically in the midterms in 2010 and 2014.

On the other hand, those age 60+ typically vote in every election. This group has historically been more likely to vote Republican. You can see what this translates into in pure numbers in this chart that shows actual votes cast by those 18-29 compared to those age 60+ during the Obama years.

Similar patterns existed with African American voters. In 2008 and 2012 Obama got 16 million African American votes. In 2010 and 2014 only about 9 million African Americans bothered to vote at all in the midterms.

All of this is why I have written consistently in these pages over the years that turnout is everything in an election. If you can get your people to vote, you will win. If they stay home, you will lose.

We know there are a lot of motivated Democrats with Trump Derangement Syndrome that are sure to vote.

However, the biggest question for Democrats is whether that will include the young voters and Black voters they need in a midterm election?

For Republicans, the question is whether the Independent and Swing voters who came out for Trump in 2024 will come out and vote when he is not on the ballot?

It remains to be seen whether those Trump voters are necessarily GOP voters. Like Obama, Trump proved to have a unique appeal to certain voters. 

A lot of his votes did not come from traditional Republican voters. He appealed to a lot of Independents and he got many blue collar Democrat votes as well. Will these voters turn out to defend the Trump agenda in 2026?

The results two weeks from now will largely be determined by turnout.

How many are going to vote and who is more likely to vote?

Will it be more young and minority voters?

Or older and White voters?

For example, here is a breakdown of the early vote as of 10/20/26 in 14 states that report those votes by the ages of the voters.

Source: https://x.com/DanRadzikowski/status/2111936675764977686

Voters aged 18-29 make up only 3.3% of the total EV compared to 55.4% for those age 65+.

Yes, older voters are more likely to vote early.

However, those younger voters are really going to have to turn out in the next two weeks or the Democrats are likely to underperform expectations.

For context, 18-29 voters made up 14% of the electorate in 2024 and 12% in 2022.

That is a lot of room to make up.

Voters age 65+ made up 28% of the electorate in 2024 and 34% in 2022.

Will Independents stay with the GOP or has the Iran War and gas prices chased them away?

To what extent will the Democrat party embracing Democrat Socialism affect the votes of moderate voters?

The answers to those questions will determine who wins and loses in two weeks.

I don't like making political predictions.

It is too easy to be wrong.

However, I would much rather be a Democrat than a Republican right considering past history.

The unanswered question is whether we can trust history in an era in which Donald Trump is still a consequential and compelling political figure even though he is not on the ballot.