Population Pressure

What is the population of the United States?

How much has it grown since the official census in 2020 determined that there was a population of 331.5 million in the United States?

How many were added in 2023?

It seems that you can get very different answers based on who you want to believe.

This investment researcher believes we are seeing the lowest population increases in the United States in more than 100+ years.

It is worse than what we saw in the Great Depression.

It is "scary".

At the same time, Newsweek has a story reporting that the United States has just seen the largest one-year growth in population in the nation's history citing a report by John Burns Research and Consulting.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/us-population-largest-one-year-increase-history-1870560

Credit: https://www.newsweek.com/us-population-largest-one-year-increase-history-1870560

Both of these reports cannot be true.

In addition, the official U.S. Census Bureau estimate is that the population of the United States increased by 1.6 million over the last year.

What are we to believe?

Let's analyze this issue the way we approach things at BeeLine.

That means we look at the underlying data and facts for the truth.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau there were 3.66 million births in 2023.

There were 3.15 million deaths.

Source: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/12/state-population-estimates.html

The difference in births and deaths would give us a net population increase of .51 million.

1.2 million immigrants were given lawful permanent residency (green card status) in the United States in 2023.

We then have to consider the number of illegal immigrants who entered the country in 2023.

There were 3.2 million apprehensions and expulsions at the border in 2023. There were an unknown number beyond this that entered the country undetected.

We know that the vast majority of those who were encountered and apprehended at the border were released into the country at the direction of the Biden administration.

Let's be conservative and estimate that 2.5 million additional illegal immigrants are now in the country that were not here a year ago.

Credit: Bianco Research, L.L.C.

Let's do the math on the population increase in the United States in 2023 based on these facts.

Births minus deaths                +.51 million

Legal immigrations              +1.10 million

Illegal immigration               +2.50 million

Net Population Increase        +4.11 million

The BeeLine analysis suggests that the 3.8 million increase in the population cited in the Newsweek story is the most reliable number to believe.

The claim that U.S. population is seeing its lowest growth rate in over 100 years is clearly wrong in that this analysis is ignoring any immigration numbers.

The U.S. Census number is similarly inaccurate in that it appears to totally ignore illegal immigration in its numbers. Otherwise its 1.8 million growth numbers is very close to BeeLine's 1.71 million for births minus deaths plus legal immigration.

I would suggest that 3.8 million  to 4.1 million is a sound estimate for the increase in population in the United States in 2023.

That would make it the largest yearly increase in population numbers in the United States in history.

What is interesting to me in all of this is that the Democrats are "all in" on an open border at the same time that they are so vocal about sustainability issues.

There seems to be no recognition of the enormous sustainability issues regarding their position on illegal immigration. This is especially surprising considering the importance of this issue with liberal  and younger voters in particular.

Too many immigrants puts too much strain on our resources. It puts unnecessary strain on everything in our society---our water, our sewer systems, our roads, the electric grid, our infrastructure and our environment. It contributes to congestion and urban sprawl.

Add to this what it does to increase the financial strain on our schools and our health system and costs pressure on rents and housing costs, not to mention our law enforcement and justice system.

Adding too many immigrants, too quickly, also puts added pressure on the social order if those immigrant numbers outpace the ability to integrate and assimilate them into the general population.

How do you add 4 million people in one year without creating enormous sustainability and societal problems?

You can not do it.

However, this is where we are.

Thanks, Joe!