In July, 2021 I wrote a blog post titled "Trump 2024?"
It was barely six months after Trump had left office and I was evaluating the prospects of whether Trump would run again in 2024.
The general consensus at the time was that Trump would face an uphill battle if he were to run in 2024. He was coming off of two impeachments in just over the last year of his Presidency and the specter of January 6th was also fresh in everyone's mind. Many thought that he would find it impossible to run again..
However, even at that early date in 2021, Trump was doing rallies and drawing large crowds. That told me there was no doubt he was running in 2024 and he would be a force if he was healthy.
I know that there are many in the GOP establishment and in media that want to believe that Trump is done. Those types of turnout and viewer numbers suggest that Trump is still a force to reckon with.
However, I also predicted at that time that the Democrats were going to do everything they could to make Trump a convicted felon.
Democrats have long claimed that Trump is a crook or has been involved in nefarious activities. However, we have heard this for five years and they have not been able to turn up anything on the man.
There is little question that the Democrats are going to turn over every rock and throw everything they can at Trump and his family the next few years They clearly live in fear of the man. They may get something that sticks and get people to believe that it is more than political retribution. If they do, Trump will not be viable in 2024 as his political brand will be permanently damaged. Once you lose trust you don't get it back.
Three years later the Democrats have literally thrown everything at Trump you can think of from a legal perspective.
However, Trump is still standing and all of it appears to have made him stronger.
Why?
It goes back to what I wrote three years ago.
All of it appears to be nothing more than political retribution.
For example, let's consider the differing treatment of Biden and Trump on the alleged retention of classified documents.
First, Trump was President and would additional latitude with regard to the possession of classified documents under the Presidential Records Act compared to Biden.
All of the records that Biden had (some dating back a decade or more) were from his time as Vice President of which there are no exceptions for the possession of classified material.
Some of Biden's records were stored in open boxes in his garage and in an office that he shared with the Chinese. Trump's were kept under lock and key at Mar-A-Lago.
However, Biden's conduct is excused because he was an old, confused man.
Trump needs to be convicted of a felony and sent to prison.
Who was the greater risk to national security?
It is this unequal application of justice that is working in Trump's favor right now.
Of course, the biggest thing going for Trump is Biden.
I predicted in 2021 that an implosion of the country under Biden/Harris could be a huge factor for Trump's resurgence in 2024.
When people are in trouble they are less concerned with personality and more concerned about performance.
An implosion of the country under the Democrats and Biden/Harris. Trump has many critics but hard times have a way of focusing people on what is most important. Trump's personality is the most cited reason why many did not like him. When people are in trouble they are less concerned with personality and more concerned about performance. A deteriorating situation in the country will make Trump a lot more attractive to more people than you can imagine.
In a recent NBC poll, 40% stated that Trump performed better than expected as President compared to only 14% who believed that of Biden.
42% believed that Biden had performed worse than expected compared to 29% who said that of Trump.
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| Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/voters-are-rating-trumps-presidency-better-expected-hindsight-rcna137971 |
The views of Independents about Biden's performance should be particularly troubling to Democrats.
Only 6% of Independents believe Biden has done better than expected and 52% say it has been worse.
I don't think there is a more important indicator on how the 2024 election might go than looking at the question of voter remorse. In other words, how many of Biden's 2020 voters are going to vote for him again seeing how things have turned out compared to Trump 2020 voters.
This was a question asked in a recent Morning Consult poll.
90% of 2020 Trump voters indicated they are willing to vote for him again.
Only 82% of Biden voters state they will do the same.
The election could turn on this question when we get to November.
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| Source: https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1752083582372159829 |
You get a good sense of how perspectives have changed with the passage of time by looking at some questions in the NBC News poll where they asked voters to compare Trump and Biden on some issues and personal characteristics.
It is particularly interesting to compare the results in the new poll to one taken right before the 2020 election.
For example, on the issue of who was most competent and effective, Biden was preferred by a net +9 on this question in 2020. Trump is now +16. That is a 25 point swing.
Trump was +2 on dealing with crime and violence in 2020. He is now +20.
Trump was +16 on the border and immigration. He is now +32.
Trump was +10 on the economy in 2020. He is now +22.
All of these are a reflection on how voters are viewing the deterioration of the country under Biden.
On the other hand, regrading the issue that the Democrats talk most about, "protecting democracy", Biden is only +2.
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| Source: https://pos.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bill-NBC-Executive-Summary-Presentation-d1a.pdf |
Who has changed their minds the most about Biden and Trump since 2020?
A look at the cross tabs is revealing.
Biden is losing the most support among minority voters.
The biggest change is in Latino voters.
Biden was +33 points in 2020 exit polling. Trump is now +1 with Latinos.
Among Blacks, Biden's support has dropped from +75 to +59.
Biden has also lost significant support among younger voters.
He has gone from +24 to +8 with 18-29 year old voters, +6 to -5 with age 30-44 voters, and -1 to -12 with 45-64 year olds.
The Democrat party traditionally wins elections due to the votes of minorities and younger voters. These groups are deserting Biden in droves in recent polling.
It is due to these numbers I continue to believe that Democrats will have to find a way to get Biden off the ballot before November.
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| Source: https://pos.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Bill-NBC-Executive-Summary-Presentation-d1a.pdf |
Given Biden's declining mental capabilities and poll numbers over the last two years, it is beyond me why the Democrat establishment has not already moved Biden to the sidelines.
The only explantation is that they do not want the rank and file of the Democrat party to decide.
They must prefer to let a couple thousand (Democrat delegates at the DNC convention) or a couple hundred (the Democrat National Committee) decide rather than the voters.
It says a lot about what is supposed to be a "Democrat" party which is arguing that this election is about "protecting democracy".
Political analyst Nate Silver in a recent tweet summarizes it very well.
As wine ages some varieties get better and some turn to vinegar.
It is also true that even a wine with imperfections is preferable to vinegar.
All of this indicates that the same may be true with political candidates.
Excellent piece. I’ve been away the past week so catching up on my Beeline and wanted to comment on your Power of The People post as it’s somewhat related to this article. I’m both optimistic and pessimistic when it comes to the near term direction of our country. The tide has definitely shifted to more moderate positions and it is having an impact on local elections. School Board after School Board across the country are seeing radical members voted out with the hope of reversing dangerous academic Title IX, and lack of parental rights. But time the ultimate prize is a constitutional amendment on term limits. I have not looked at stats in a long time but I can’t imagine they have changed much; the vast majority of voters want term limits. It’s not even close. Lastly we all hopes the overturning of RvW would forever remove abortion as a litmus test for future legislators and judges but we are not there yet. Again the vast majority of voters favor legalization with restrictions
ReplyDeleteAgree with the above comment. Moderation is key. With Alabama now declaring zygote personhood all bets are off. Women of child-bearing age are very aware of Republicans trying to take away all of their rights, including life.
ReplyDeletehttps://virginialawreview.org/articles/state-abortion-bans-pregnancy-as-a-new-form-of-coverture/