Polling Potpourri---August 7, 2024 Edition

It has been a little over two weeks since Joe Biden was forced out of the 2024 Presidential race by members of his own party.

What are the polls telling us now that Kamala Harris has been anointed as the party standard bearer even though she did not receive the vote of one Democrat primary voter?

It appears to me that the main benefit of having Harris replacing Biden on the ticket is that Democrat voters have been re-energized. They now have hope for November whereas it was a very dispirited party in the aftermath of the Trump-Biden debate in late June.

The polls suggest that we once again can expect a very tight race in November in which the numbers look very similar to where they were pre-debate.

The RealClearPolitics.com poll average essentially shows Trump and Harris in a dead heat right now in the important battleground states.

Most polls show that Harris has gained somewhere between 3 and 4 points compared to how Biden was performing right before he dropped out.

On Monday the RCP average had Trump up +0.8 points.

However, let's put that in context.

On August 5, 2016 Trump was -6.8 points to Clinton. On August 5, 2020 Trump was -6.4 points to Biden.

In fact, Trump is the only Republican to even have a polling lead in early August in the last 20 years.

I attribute most of the  bounce Harris is getting in the polls is by being a new face in the race and the very favorable media coverage she has received.

It is important to keep in mind that there is a natural human trait to favor potential over achievement.

I wrote about this a decade ago in a blog post titled, "The Power of Potential".

The academic studies on this subject come from advertising and marketing but what is a political campaign but an attempt to sell a candidate to the public?

Simply stated, most people are swayed more by potential than achievement.

Why does an untested high school pitcher command a bigger signing bonus from a major league baseball team than a proven major league pitcher with six years of experience as a starter?

Why does a fledgling tech company IPO result in a market cap far in excess of a steady and profitable company that has a 10 year record of success in the marketplace?

Why does the up and coming young MBA a few years out of school get the promotion over the steady, seasoned and loyal 10 year manager?

Why do NFL fans of mediocre teams always clamor for the 2nd string quarterback?

Why did an untested Barack Obama beat two candidates in 2008 (Hillary Clinton and John McCain) who were both more accomplished and experienced than he was?

In the political realm I think it relates to the fact that prior achievement has boundaries. Potential is boundless, especially on the upside. Hope really does spring eternal.

People know all the warts and weaknesses of the politicians they are familiar with. Almost everyone also believes that they know Trump well. You could also say the same about Biden.

Trump cancelled Biden out on potential. Therefore, undecided voters were really comparing the experience they had with Trump compared to Biden.

Trump won on that measure almost every time.

Harris has the advantage of being more a blank slate in the minds of many voters.

Yes, they know she was Biden's VP but she has the potential to be better than that.

The potential of Harris gives her an advantage over Biden. It is also helping her against Trump right now.

The research suggests that the new face is always going to be more interesting and enticing than someone that you know better.

For example, look at the approval rating for Harris on July 20 ( the day Biden stepped aside) compared to her rating on July 31.

She went from a net approval rating of -33 on July 20 with 18-29 year voters to +16 in the space of 11 days!

It is truly WILD.

The challenge for Trump's campaign is to better define for the voters who Kamala Harris really is.

At the same time, we see the Harris campaign working hard to not allow anyone to define Harris in any way. They want her to be a blank slate of potential for voters. That is why they have worked hard thus far to avoid having her appear for any unscripted interviews or press conferences or answer any questions from reporters.

Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/jd-vance-scolds-reporters-kamala-161636193.html

Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance scolded reporters on Tuesday to do a better job of pressing Kamala Harris to answer questions about her record, saying she was taking a "basement strategy."

The entirety of the Kamala Harris for President website right now backs all of this up.

No issues. No positions. No platform.

It is solely dedicated to donations with small puff biographical info on Harris and Tim Walz and space to enter your name and "save democracy".

Every FAQ on the website is on how to donate.

There is no content at all on substantive issues or positions of Harris/Walz if you wanted to find out where they stand on anything.

Harris is clearly enjoying a polling bounce right now and she has brought new energy to the race.

If the Democrats are to win they need to have voters who are excited about their candidate and motivated to vote.

Harris gives them the hope to do do that.

However, Harris also has to hold some key Democrat voting groups together if she is to win.

Women.

Voters under age 30.

Blacks.

Hispanics.

Trump was picking up votes with all these groups against Biden.

Can Harris bring these voters back?

That is a key question that has to be answered if Harris is to win in November.

A recent CBS News poll that shows Harris +1 overall vs. Trump this week has good and bad news for Kamala when you look at the internal polling data.

The good news for Kamala. That small lead is 4 points better than the last poll taken by CBS before Biden left the race.

However, there is also a lot of concerning data in the poll for Harris when you dig deeper on whether she can retain large margins in the groups she needs to have to win.

Biden was +15 over Trump in 2020 with women. In the CBS poll Harris is only +9.

Harris is holding on to the youth vote at +26 vs. the +24 the Democrats got in 2020.

However, the Black vote right now for the Democrats has slid to +63 compared to +75 in 2020.

The largest erosion the Democrats are seeing based on the CBS poll is Hispanic support.

Harris is only +5 among Hispanics while Biden was +33 in 2020.

However, Harris is only -11 with White voters while Biden lost this group by 17 points four years ago.

You wonder how this is possible with all of the arguments we hear about systemic racism in the United States? A Black/Indian woman is doing better against Trump than Biden did?

Meanwhile Trump is +14 with age 65+ voters now compared to only +5 in 2020.

Trump is also tied with Independents which is a group he lost by 13 points in 2020 to Biden.

All of this says that there is a long way to go in this campaign for President.

The last six weeks has proved that.

I don't know that there has ever been a six week period  in American political history that saw more political drama than we have just witnessed.

As I have written before, expect more twists and turns as we get closer to November.

Right now this is anybody's race to win...or lose.