Downhill and Over a Cliff

On the day that Joe Biden took office (January 20, 2021) I wrote a blog post entitled "It's All Downhill From Here".

I expected the United States to enter a downwards trajectory under Biden.

I finished that blog post this way.

The media narrative today shows Biden on top of the world while they portray Trump as a beaten man who has been kicked to the curb.

 I am interested to see how history looks at all of this in several years.

My advice to Joe Biden is to enjoy it while you can. I am betting it is all downhill from here.

I was not optimistic but in no way would I have predicted that the United States could fall so far and so fast.

This has not been a downhill slide. It is more like we have gone over a cliff.

It has taken less than two years.

In that blog post, I wrote down some objective economic measures as things stood on January 20, 2021.

Let's compare where we are today on these measures.

Dow Jones Industrial Average   32,430 (+4.8% since 1/19/21 but -11.4% since 1/1/22)

S&P 500    3,771 (-.1% since 1/19/21 but -21.4% since 1/1/22)

NASDAQ.  10,475. (-20.6% since 1/19/21 but -33.8% since 1/1/22)

10-year Treasury yield  4.163% (increase of over 3 percentage points)

30 year mortgage rate (average)  7.32%   (increase of 4.36 percentage points)

Gallon of gas (AAA national average for regular)  $3.80  ( 59% increase in price)

Natural gas per cf   $6.46.  ( 160% increase in price)

Current employment rate  3.7%  (There are actually fewer people working today than in February, 2020. Part of the reason the unemployment rate is low is because many people left the workforce during Covid.

Inflation rate for the last year  8.2%  (increase of 7 percentage points).

Real median household income  $70,784 at 12/31/21 (decrease of $1,002) (Real median household income  at 12/31/22 will be even lower in that real wages over the last 12 months are down 3%. This would equate to an additional decrease of $2,000 in real household income.)

Poverty rate overall was 10.5% for 2021 (22% increase since 2019)

Poverty rate for African Americans for 2021 was 19.5% (4% increase) 

Poverty rate for Hispanic Americans for 2021 was 17.1% (9% increase)

It is not a pretty picture and I doubt we have reached the bottom.

It is true that Joe Biden had to deal with Covid.

However, he is also the guy would said he was going to shutdown the virus and not shutdown the country and the economy.

Trump dealt with the virus for about 10 months with no vaccines available until his last month in office.

Biden had the vaccines at his disposal since he took office.

What do the measures look like on Covid?

Covid cases under Biden (measured as cases per month) have actually been 41% higher than they were under Trump.

As you look at the chart above also remember that Biden and the Democrats mandated that tens of millions get vaccinated or lose their jobs based on the premise that the vaccines prevented Covid and stopped transmission. These assertions have now been thoroughly discredited.

Covid deaths have come down but almost all of that improvement has been seen this year.

In Biden's first year Covid deaths per month averaged very close to the same numbers under Trump.

However, this was WITH the vaccines.

Did the reduction in deaths have anything to do with Biden's response or was it due to a weaker Omicron variant or natural immunity gained by so many infections?

If it is argued it was due to the vaccines, why was there almost no effect in 2021?

We have also seen where the southern border of the United States has gone from stability to chaos since the Democrats gained control.

Compare apprehensions by the U.S. Border Patrol during the 2020 fiscal year under Trump with 2021 and 2022 under Biden.

It is unfathomable.

This also only includes illegal aliens which were encountered by the Border Patrol. Most were released into the country.

It does not include illegals that snuck in undetected.

Finally, let's consider what has transpired in the rest of the world over the last two years.

We have seen the humiliating U.S.withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan.

The peace efforts in the Middle East that Trump orchestrated, that saw new bridges being built between Israel and a number of Arab countries, has disintegrated under Biden.

North Korea is once again firing missiles over South Korea and Japan that had ceased when Trump was President.

Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in war for almost nine months.

The United States (and many European countries) have provided tens of billions dollars of weapons and other aid to Ukraine.

I would provide an exact amount of U.S. aid provided to Ukraine but it seems that it is nowhere to be found after numerous Google search attempts.

I am not the only one having a problem.

Noted investigative journalist Sharyl Attkisson is having similar problems.

I wish it were true that lawmakers would not blindly give money away with no public accounting. 

I see no evidence of it.

The financial tab from what I can find is at least $65 billion and probably much more.

Interestingly, until 2021 the Department of State was required to publish an annual list of arms sales to foreign countries.

Is it a coincidence that "Section 5114(b)(4) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022 repealed the 1994 statutory provision that required the Department of State to publish an edition of  World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers (WMEAT) every year." ?

I doubt it.

The closing argument in the midterms by Biden and the Democrats seems to be that democracy itself is at risk in this election.

I agree.

I don't know that there has ever been a better contrast in comparing where we were to where we are now.

Everything cited above is not opinion.

These are objective facts.

They are the result of policy decisions by our political leaders.

On government spending. Covid. Border enforcement. Foreign affairs.

I could have also cited crime statistics and contrasted it with the calls to "Defund the Police" and the"no cash bail" policies that are popular with Democrats these days.

Policies do matter. 

Who leads us matters.

It has also come about in less than two years.

These are the times that the process of democracy is intended for the people to let their voices rise via their votes and say "ENOUGH".

The way I see it, considering all of the above,  if the voters do not hold those in office accountable for taking us downhill and over a cliff so rapidly, democracy won't be at risk...it will have failed us.

Never Mind!

Comedian Gilda Radner popularized the character Emily Litella on Saturday Night Live in the 1970's.

Litella was a character who appeared on the Weekend News Update segment on the show in which she gave a spirited opinion on a subject that she had misheard or misunderstood. 

When anchor Chevy Chase (or Jane Curtin) stepped in and pointed our her misunderstanding she hesitated a second, said "that's different" or "I'm sorry" and then closed with the famous line..

Never mind. 

Gilda Radner as Emily Litella.

Click here if the video does not play in your browser.

I can't help but think of Emily Litella as I see a lot of what is going on today.

For example. Economics Professor Emily Oster of Brown University recently wrote an article for The Atlantic is which she states that we need to declare a "pandemic amnesty", forgive and forget the missteps of the public health response, and move on.

Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/covid-response-forgiveness/671879/

She argues that many of the recommendations (masking outdoors, closing schools, closing beaches and parks, delaying medical treatments) were wrong but nobody could have known that at the time.

Oster says we just need to just move on rather than trying to keep score now of who was right and who was wrong.

It sounds a little like a Emily Litella moment, "Never Mind".

However, it is not accompanied by anything close to "I'm sorry" or "That's different".

It also completely ignores the fact that those who questioned the policy recommendations were called "misinformation spreaders and most of their views were censored by the mainstream media and most social media companies.

Oster also suggests those who were right were just "lucky".

All those who suggested that the lockdowns, school closures and mandates were ill-advised were "lucky"?

BeeLine was lucky when I warned that the vaccines would not stop transmission and infections ?

No.

I read the fine print in the clinical trials of the Covid vaccines.

I first warned in October, 2020 (two month before the vaccines were introduced) that there was nothing in the clinical data that suggested that the vaccines prevented infection or stopped transmission.

In a blog post written in January, 2021, "Are You Going To Get the Vaccine", I wrote this.

The biggest misconception I see in people regarding the vaccine is that they believe it will prevent them from being infected with Covid or if loved ones are vaccinated it will prevent the transmission of the virus to them. This would seem to be an obvious assumption and a primary reason to get the vaccine.

Incredibly, there is no evidence that any of the Covid vaccines will prevent transmission of the virus.

As I wrote when these vaccines were under development, that was never a stated objective or goal of the vaccines. They merely were intended to minimize the symptoms if you get the infection.

There was absolutely nothing in the clinical data or science that suggested that vaccine mandates were warranted in order to protect public health.

There was absolutely no reason for people to be fired from their jobs, threatened and ostracized from society for making a personal choice to reject the vaccines.

However, that is exactly what The Atlantic and scores of other people did.

Source: https://twitter.com/MsMistyMarie/status/1587914133235793927/photo/1

Even worse, Dr. Tony Fauci and others like him are now pretending that they never had anything to do with any of it.

Source: https://www.theepochtimes.com/fauci-claims-he-never-recommended-covid-19-lockdowns_4625763.html

Source: https://fee.org/articles/fauci-claims-he-had-nothing-to-do-with-school-closures-his-own-statements-suggest-otherwise/

Another example of "Never Mind".

However, Fauci won't even admit his role in all of this.

At least, Emily Litella was honest.

Joe Biden is another one who seems unwilling to admit to have forgotten a lot in a couple of years.

Two years ago Joe Biden was going to get rid of fossil fuels.

Source: https://www.atr.org/joe-biden-we-are-going-get-rid-fossil-fuels/?amp

Biden stated he wanted to put oil executives in jail.

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7837265/We-jail-Biden-wants-prosecute-fossil-fuel-executives-environment-damage.html

Biden is now complaining because the oil companies are not drilling enough to increase the supply of oil.

He has begged Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to produce more oil.

Never mind.

And then there is this. Consider that this is the reason that Biden and others want to get rid of fossil fuels.

The New York Times was reporting in 1995 that some experts were saying "most of the beaches on the East Coast would be gone in 25 years."

Credit: https://realclimatescience.com/2022/10/herding-the-climate-sheep/

 

That should mean that those beaches would have disappeared by 2020.

And who are a few who own waterfront properties on the East Coast in 2022?

Barack Obama is one.

Source: https://www.townandcountrymag.com/leisure/real-estate/a30169311/barack-michelle-obama-buy-marthas-vineyard-house/

Joe Biden also owns a beach property in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware steps away from the ocean.

Here he is this past summer on the beach near his home that should already be gone.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/13/politics/climate-change-biden-vacation-house-invs

Never mind.

Why should these people have any credibility left?

Give me Emily Litella.

How Red Will It Be?

The midterm elections are next week.

I am increasingly being asked what I think will be the result of the election.

Most political pundits seem to agree that the Republicans are poised to pick up enough seats to assume the majority party in the House.

Control of the Senate is a bigger question.

Let's take a BeeLine look at the political landscape heading towards the midterms.

Midterm elections are traditionally challenging for the incumbent President's party.

Joe Biden's current approval ratings suggest that is even truer this year.

Most surveys show Biden's job approval rating at around 40%. 

Biden's approval rating is undoubtedly not helpful for Democrat candidates this year.

In the last 21 midterm elections (dating back to 1938) there have only been two times that the incumbent party gained House seats (1998 and 2002). The average loss of House seats in a midterm election is 33.

However, the last two times there was a Democrat elected (Clinton and Obama) in their first mid-term election after taking office (Clinton 1994 and Obama 2010), the Democrats lost 53 and 63 House seats, respectively.

There is a suggestion in that data to me that voters reacted negatively when they saw that the country was being governed on a much more liberal basis than what was promised during the election.

Might that also be the case in 2022?

There have only been four times in the last 80 years that the President's party has picked up midterm seats in the Senate. The average loss of seats in the Senate over the other 16 midterm election cycles has been 5.5.

History suggests that it will be difficult for Democrats to avoid losses in the midterm elections. If these historical averages are to hold in 2022, the GOP would find themselves in the majority in both the House and Senate. 

This chart from Gallup summarizes some of the key indicators that played into recent midterm election results in the House.

If you look at the four key indicators this year, they are all near historically low values. 

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/404414/gop-political-winds-back-2022.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

If history is any guide, the Republicans should expect to gain at least 20-25 seats in the House based on these factors alone.

I consider it unlikely the GOP would gain more than 35 seats under the best of circumstances considering the fact that the prior large Red wave elections came about when the Republicans were starting with much lower total numbers in the House.

For context, a gain of 34 seats by the Republicans in the 2022 midterms would give the GOP the most seats they have held in the House since 1928.

As for the Senate, the Democrats are fortunate to have to only defend 14 seats in 2022 compared to the 21 seats that Republicans have to defend.

These numbers alone make it unlikely that we will see a swing close to the average 5 seat swing for mid-term elections in the Senate.

If the Republicans are able to pick up a net 3 seats this year I would consider it a major victory for the GOP.

Anything above that is going to require a massive Red wave.

If you are looking for a signal that we might see that, pay attention to the New Hampshire Senate on election night. If former General Don Bolduc is beating current incumber Democrat Senator Maggie Hassan it bodes well for the GOP.

Even if the Democrats can retain the current 50-50 split in the Senate, they face a brutal map in 2024 in which they need to defend 23 states while Republicans only have to defend 10 states in that cycle.

In addition, there are 36 races involving Governor seats as well as substantial numbers of state legislative seats up for grabs in the midterms.

I have followed politics for a long time and if I have learned anything it is difficult to make firm predictions about anything.

For example, in 1994 I saw the Speaker of the House, Tom Foley, lose to a political newcomer. That had not occurred to any other Speaker since the Civil War. No one predicted that outcome,

Of course, I also witnessed the election of Donald Trump that we were told was impossible.

This graph shows how Trump's prospects looked on a chart during the 2016 election. He was given a 15% chance on Election Da by the New York Times election forecast..

Source: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/forecast_incentives3.pdf

Momentum is a big factor in deciding elections and that does seem to favor Republicans right now.

Most polls have shown Republican candidates gaining support recently.

I am old enough to also remember Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter being in what was called a toss-up race going into Election Day, 1980. Reagan ended up winning in a landslide.

Reagan had all of the momentum after the final debate and it carried him to victory.

Trump also had it in the last two weeks in 2016.

Obama defeated Romney in 2012 with a boost of momentum he got after the response to Hurricane Sandy.

The most critical factor in elections is turnout.

To win, the voters most likely to support your party have to cast ballots. You also have to hope that potential voters of your opponent stay home.

The Republicans have traditionally had more support from older voters and it is a general rule that older age demographics are more likely to vote than younger ages.

Will older voters continue to turnout and will they favor Republicans?

Younger voters have usually voted in large numbers in Presidential years but have been less likely to vote in the midterms.

Turnout among young voters surged in 2018 and 2020 but still significantly lags the percentage of older voters.

In 2020, 75% of those age 65+ voted. Barely 50% of those age 18-24.

Source: https://about.bgov.com/brief/election-demographics-and-voter-turnout/

In the 2018 midterms, 66% of age 65+ voted. Less than a one-third of age 18-24 voted. In 2014, only 17% of this age demographic voted.

Source: https://about.bgov.com/brief/election-demographics-and-voter-turnout/

Democrats need young voters to continue to turn out and support their candidates.

Will they continue to close the voting gap with older voters as they did the last two elections?

This article from Politico suggests that they are not turning out thus far in the early voting efforts.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/28/young-voters-dem-early-00063929

Democrats also absolutely need to retain the support of Blacks and Hispanics in addition to young voters.

However, there is no group that Biden has seen his approval erode more than with Hispanics.

I cited this Quinnipiac poll several months ago that shows how far underwater Biden was with both young voters and Hispanics. Biden's overall approval rating is a better now than it was in June but this is a big hole to climb out of.

Source: https://nypost.com/2022/06/09/biden-approval-at-22-among-young-adults-24-among-hispanics-poll/

Will the loss in approval for Biden inure to the benefit of the GOP in the down ballot midterms races?

How RED will it be next week?

I would call it Red Victory if the GOP wins the House by any margin and keeps the Senate at 50-50.

It would become a Red Wave if the Republicans gained 20 seats in the House and took the majority in the Senate.

I would call if a Red Tsunami if we saw 30 seats flip to the Republicans in the House and 3 in the Senate.

It will depend on the answer to all of the questions above.

And it is the American people alone who will answer those questions in less than a week.

No One's in Comfort Class

There are so many problems in the United States right now.

I don't need to enumerate them.

A recent CBS poll released this week found that 79% of likely voters feel things in the U.S. are out of control.

That probably says it all.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-republicans-lead-house-2022-10-30/

Why do so many feel this way?

One reason could be that with all the problems that we have Joe Biden found time last week to hold a press conference claiming that it is somehow racist for airlines to charge extra for seats with more legroom towards the front of the plane.

How many would list this issue as a priority right now?

Source: https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1585293597796360194

People of color and marginalized Americans do not understand that you have to pay more for Business Class or Comfort Class?

Isn't this an incredibly racist statement by itself?

The extra charge for more leg room hits people of color hardest?

Why is that? Is Biden assuming that people of color are taller so they need more legroom?

Does he think that every person of color is in the NBA?

Perhaps Biden is not aware of the average heights of people in the United States by race?

Biden claimed that this was part of his efforts to fight inflation.

Today, my administration is announcing new actions to lower the cost of everyday living for American families, to put more money in the pockets of middle-income and working-class Americans, to hold big corporations accountable.”

Really?

Yes, really! 

Will Joe Biden's legacy be that he successfully eliminated Comfort Class fees in air travel?

If this occurred, what would be the result?

Everyone would likely be crammed into coach seats and everyone (except for those who paid extra for more room) would pay more to make up for the lost revenue the airlines get for charging for the 6 inches of extra legroom.

As for those CEO's of big companies that Biden likes to criticize.

They don't seem to be any more confident about the way things look than the voters in the CBS poll.

CEO confidence in the prospects for the economy is the lowest it has been since this survey was first initiated almost 40 years ago.

Can it be said that anyone is in Comfort Class right now?

Still Crazy After All These Years

I was in central Idaho this past weekend.

The first snowfall of the season was apparent at higher elevations in the mountains.

A couple of days later my 2nd grade grandson was excited to tell me that his teacher had told him the earth was warming.

I told him that some people believed that but there was a lot of evidence and data that suggested that was not true.

He seemed crestfallen that something that he was told was a fact may not be altogether true.

If he was a little older I might have suggested he take the data below from the Global Snow Lab at Rutgers University to his teacher and ask if the planet is warming how could it be that Winter Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent has been increasing over the last 55 years?

Source: https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=namgnld&ui_season=1

The same is true for Eurasia.

Source: https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=eurasia&ui_season=1

The trend is even more obvious in looking at North America alone.

Source: https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=namgnld&ui_season=1

I don't necessarily fault my grandson's teacher.

She is undoubtedly just repeating the narrative that she hears everyday in the mainstream media and elsewhere.

For example, here is the headline of a story from The New York Times this week voicing concern about snow disappearing.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/21/us/northwest-snowpack-climate.html

However, the narrative about global warming and the propaganda that flows from it that is specifically directed at young people through our educational systems is dangerous.

Many of them actually believe that the world is going to end within 10 years if climate change is not addressed.

Remember Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez repeating this over and over almost four years ago as far left liberals  pushed for their "Green New Deal" legislation?

Source: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/426353-ocasio-cortez-the-world-will-end-in-12-years-if-we-dont-address/

They have decided that mankind and its use of fossil fuels and carbon emissions are the culprit behind any climate change.

However, it seems their concerns in this regard only extend to Western countries

They all are conspicuously silent in calling out China on its rising carbon emissions.

It is as if China is on another planet.

It is the same thing we see with Joe Biden as we are dealing with rising energy costs.

He is begging Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to produce more oil at the same time he is trying to put American oil and gas companies out of the business of producing fossil fuels.

It makes absolutely no sense.

All of this propaganda has created millions of young people in particular who have become unhinged in believing that they are going to die from rising seas and searing heat.

The latest manifestation of this is young people defacing works of art and using super glue to glue themselves to walls or floors.

These two climate activists threw tomato soup on a Van Gogh painting.

Mashed potatoes were used to attack a Monet painting in Germany.

In New York City this week climate activists attacked the corporate offices of BlackRock because it invests in fossil fuels. Their cool antic was to pour coal down the escalators in the building.

We are seeing these extremist actions despite the fact that the Democrat Congress passed, and Joe Biden recently signed,  a law that will spend $369 billion on "climate solutions and environmental justice" as laid out in the so-called Inflation Reduction Act.

Source: https://earthjustice.org/brief/2022/what-the-inflation-reduction-act-means-for-climate#:~:text=President%20Joe%20Biden%20has%20signed,action%20on%20the%20global%20stage.

Weren't we told exactly two years ago that the craziness would end once Donald Trump was defeated and the Democrats had control?  

The extremists would no longer have any reason to vent their frustrations with public policy once the evil, racist, war monger, climate denier Trump was gone.

The craziest thing I have seen are these two young Aussies (or Kiwis) telling everybody that farming has to stop because it is the biggest single driver of climate change.

Source: https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1583078013427601408

I wonder how that will turn out for humanity if we followed that plan?

All of this should be a cautionary tale of what results when we promote opinions and ideology as scientific facts.

Should we be surprised that we have produced a couple of generations of people who are all too willing to do crazy stuff after we have spent the last thirty years filling their brains with crazy stuff?

In 2013, DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz was claiming that her South Florida Congressional District would be under water in a few short years.

Nearly a decade later aren't we beyond a "few short years"?

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D., Fla.), who represents the Miami area, warned that unless climate change is addressed “in a few short years,” rising sea levels will force her to represent areas more than two hundred miles away.

“I will eventually represent Orlando if we don’t do something about making sure we can reduce global warming,” she said on Fox News this morning. Wasserman Schultz’s current residence, Weston, Fla., is 224 miles away from Orlando.

Her district is still high and dry and there is still no beachfront property in Orlando.

23rd Florida Congressional District (purple in black outline)
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz

I wrote the following over nine years ago right after Wasserman Schultz was telling everyone she would soon be representing Orlando because Miami would be under water.

Only in a liberal mind does it make sense to...

shut down your most cost-effective energy generating source,


shut-off your most abundant energy resource,


raise electricity costs on all Americans,


and risk losing hundreds of thousand of jobs in the process.


In an attempt to solve a problem...


that we are not even sure we have,


and if we do, we are not sure we can do anything about it,


because of natural or external forces that we cannot control, 

that may overwhelm anything we do anyway,


that ultimately works to the advantage of your biggest trade partner,


that will undoubtedly result in more job losses for Americans over the longer term.

We are seeing all of this play out in Europe right now.

Of course, they compounded all of this by relying on Russia for their energy.

Is it not past time to stop the craziness?

Hijabs and Hope for Iran

The protests that are occurring in Iran offer some hope that the autocratic, repressive rule of the mullahs in Iran may be threatened.

Source: https://irannewsupdate.com/news/insider/iran-students-resume-day-40-of-protests/

What is interesting to me is that the current protests were sparked by the death of a 22-year old woman in police custody who had  been jailed for "improperly" wearing her hijab. Reports are that she was repeatedly beaten by the authorities.

Source: womensvoicesnow.org

I have been interested for some time as to why Middle Eastern Muslim countries over the last 40-50 years became more conservative and less tolerant and Judeo-Christian Western countries became more liberal and tolerant.

It is a puzzling paradox as conventional thinking suggests that as societies age and mature they tend to become more progressive. For example, they advance from a primitive, barbaric system of justice to a system that recognizes individual rights and equal justice. They become less authoritarian and more flexible.

Why did Islam move towards the 10th century but in the West we even see Christian institutions "progressing" so far that it is hard to recognize the existence of any traditional or core values at all?

I have written before of the stunning transformation of countries like Iran, Afghanistan and Egypt over my lifetime. In years past, we looked like we were living in the same world. That is certainly not the case today. 

For example, this is a picture of a female soldier in the Iranian Army in 1979.

Credit: Pakistan Defence

These are female soldiers in the Iranian Army in 2011.

Credit: Pakistan Defence

These are Afghanistan women in the 1950's compared to 2014.

These are Egyptian students at Cairo University.

1959

2012

A related question is what causes a young man to strap on a suicide vest or take an automatic weapon into an opera house or office building with the intent to kill or maim shouting "Allahu Akbar"?

The ongoing protests in Iran, and the specific focus on wearing of the hijab, may indicate that the radical Islamists are losing their grip on the Iranian people.

A few years I came across an interesting paper by Dr. Tawfik Hamid, "The Cause of Jihadist Terrorism and How to Combat It" in a publication by the Air Force Research Laboratory (credit to Viable Opposition for pointing me to this) that attempts to explain this question.

Dr. Hamid knows something about this subject because at one time he was an Islamic extremist himself in his native Egypt.

The radical Islam we see today has its roots in what is called the "Salafi Movement" within Islam. Its followers believe in taking a very fundamental approach to Islam. They believe that Islam has strayed from its roots and has become decadent over the years. They reject any religious innovation and support the implementation of sharia law. One of the key signs of spreading Salafism is for the women to wear the hijab, a key part in the imposition of sharia law.

Interestingly, Hamid sees the wearing of the hijab as an important indicator of increased radicalism in a Muslim community. This is how he describes how this takes hold.

The process begins with the propagation of Salafi jihadist ideology within a community. Increasing numbers of women begin to wear the hijab, which is both a symptom of Salafi proliferation and a catalyst for Islamism (see, e.g.,Mahmood, 2005). In turn, the proliferation of militant Salafism and the hijab contribute to the idea of passive terrorism, which occurs when moderate segments of the population decline to speak against or actively resist terrorism. 

The chart below shows the process of radicalization as well as the reinforcing cycle that continues to make the problem worse as times goes on. Hamid makes the point that while only a small percentage of Muslims become active terrorists, there are a very large number of what he calls "passive terrorists" who support the ideals of the cause but will never become violent.

However, it is a numbers game. The more adherents of Islam who follow the fundamentalist view of Salafism, the greater chance that a few more will become violent extremists. The first step in combating jihadist terrorism is to reduce the number of "passive terrorists" as Hamid calls them.

The solution to all of this is exceedingly complex. "No single, magical solution for defeating Islamism" exists according to Hamid.

However, Hamid sees a critical first step that can be taken is to weaken what he calls the "hijab phenomenon" .

Weakening the hijab phenomenon is pivotal to stopping the growth of Islamism at the ideological level. Wearing the hijab is discussed as a cultural phenomenon, rather than an individual choice, as many Muslim women are peaceful people (Hamid, 2007, pp.120-121). I have observed that, over the last few decades, terrorism was preceded by an increase in the prevalence of the hijab. In Sunni Muslim areas such as Kurdistan in Iraq, most women did not wear the hijab; these areas experienced fewer acts of terrorism than areas where the hijab was common, such as Al-Anbar Province.  

If more hijabs start coming off there may be hope in Iran and elsewhere.

I still am looking for an explanation of why Islam has become the retrograde force that it is today at the same time that Christianity has become so liberal and tolerant that calling it progressive is using a term that is much too mild.

However, I have a better understanding of why all of the hijabs have appeared over the last 50 years...and what it tells us.

And the Iranian protests that began with a woman who was jailed because of the hijab provides hope that we may have reached a turning point where radical Islam may soon be in retreat.

Then and Now

A short compilation of "then and now" items to provide context to the world we are living in at present  compared to the past.

Covid

Do you remember this statement that Joe Biden made almost exactly two years ago?

Then.

Now.

For those who argue that Covid deaths are the better metric.

And there is this to show how The Washington Post reported it then and now.

Financial Conditions

Do you remember in March, 2002 as the Covid pandemic and lockdowns were starting that it seemed everything was coming unglued?

It really felt scary and bad then, didn't it?

List of items that are now below those March, 2020 lows.

Source: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1583855770705465345/photo/1

The Price of Eggs

Of course, a lot of things are a lot higher in price now they were then.

A comparison of the prices of eggs by one consumer between December, 2020 and October, 2022.

Global Warming?

We also hear incessantly about global warming and the need to eliminate all fossil fuels in powering our daily lives.

Based on what we are told you would think it was much colder then than it is now.

Look at this chart that shows the high temperatures recorded at every U.S. climatology station on October 21 for every year between 1895-2022.

60% of all stations recorded a high of over 80 degrees on October 21, 1947. Only 15% were above that temperature this year.

Do you see any upward trend in the data?

Source: https://twitter.com/JunkScience/status/1583638205018296320

We also have often heard in recent years that the polar bears are going to be extinct due to global warming.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-polar-bears-extinct-by-2100/

Al Gore made the plight of the polar bears a part of his movie "An Inconvenient Truth" where he showed an image like this of a forlorn polar bear in desperate straits due to melting Arctic ice.

Credit: Gerard Van der Leun

However, the facts are far different.

There are actually many, many more polar bears today in the Arctic than existed when Al Gore was in high school.

Then     5,000-10,000  polar bears

Now     26,000

Source: https://financialpost.com/opinion/bjorn-lomborg-suppressing-good-news-is-scaring-our-kids-witless

Florida Governor

Two weeks before the Florida election for Governor in 2018 a CNN poll had Democrat Andrew Gillum leading Republican Ron DeSantis by 12 points. 

Source: https://t witter.com/ChristinaPushaw/status/1583623854785957889/photo/1

DeSantis went on to win that race by a mere 32,000 votes out of 8.1 million votes cast.

DeSantis has led Florida to so much success in navigating Florida over the last four years that he is considered a prime Presidential candidate.

Gillum was found in a Miami Beach hotel in 2020 with a male prostitute who had overdosed on meth. Gillum, married with three children, was so intoxicated he could not answer any questions to the responding police officers. He later came out and stated he was bisexual.

Source: https://www.metroweekly.com/2020/03/former-florida-governor-candidate-andrew-gillum-found-in-hotel-room-with-gay-escort-who-allegedly-overdosed/

Earlier this year Gillum was also charged in a 21-count federal indictment for conspiracy, wire fraud and making false statements regarding fund raising and the misuse of campaign funds.

Source: https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndfl/pr/former-tallahassee-mayor-and-gubernatorial-candidate-and-associate-charged-conspiracy

A trial is set for next April in which Gillum faces 20 years in federal prison.

It is hard to imagine how different Florida would look today but for that slim vote margin four years ago.

Has any state's residents ever come this close to disaster by a factor of .4% of votes cast?

A reminder that every vote really does count.

It is also a reminder that the election day votes count, not the polls.