The Fourth Turning Is Here---Part One

I am going to do something I have never done previously with BeeLine.

I am going to do a series of BeeLine posts over the next several weeks that will focus exclusively on The Fourth Turning theory made popular in the 1997 book by Neil Howe and William Strauss.

I have written about The Fourth Turning in these pages a number of times over the years. 

The Fourth Turning represents the "winter" or "crisis" period in human history. There are also Spring, Summer and Fall turnings.

Each turning lasts about 20-25 years.

The entire cycle takes about 80-100 years or a long life of a human being.

If you have not guessed it already...we are in The Fourth Turning.

For most of the last 15 years we have been careening between chaos, craziness and crisis.

The temperature is rising with each passing day.

We are heading to a rendezvous with history whether we want to or not.

Part One that follows below will provide an overview of The Fourth Turning theory.

In Part Two I will write about being in the middle of The Fourth Turning and the lead up to the period of maximum crisis that is predicted to be still ahead of us.

In Part Three I will focus on where we go after The Fourth Turning.

Let's get started.

The Fourth Turning Is Here---Part One

The Fourth Turning refers to the cycles of history. There is a pattern to history. There are four turns much as there are four seasons.  A new era -or turn- occurs about every two decades or so.  As the authors describe it...

At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future.  Turnings come in cycles of four.  Each cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly 80 to 100 years. 

The four turnings are much like the seasons. 

There is a Spring which is a High where institutions are strengthening and individualism is weakening and a new civic order is implanting.  This was the period beginning right after WW II to the late 1960's

There is a Summer which is the Awakening.  This is an era of spiritual upheaval when the new civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.  This period began in the late 1960's with the flower children and Vietnam War protests and lasted until the late 1980's.

There is a Fall which is the Unraveling.  This is a period of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions. The old civic order decays and the new values regime firmly implants.  This began in the late 1980's and the authors predicted that it would run for about 20 years.

The Fourth Turning is the Crisis.  It is a decisive era of secular upheaval according to Strauss and Howe. In 1997, they predicted that "sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning."

In hindsight, it is generally acknowledged that The Fourth Turning we are in now began in 2008 with the financial meltdown that occurred at that time.

The Fourth Turning before that began in 1929 with the stock market crash. It ran until 1946 encompassing both the Great Depression and WWII. 

Previous Fourth Turnings centered around the Civil War and the Declaration of Independence and Revolutionary War.

If you do the math you will notice that about 80 years separated all of these Fourth Turning periods.

The point of maximum crisis is usually about 3/4 of the way through the FourthTurning. 

One of the important points that Howe and Strauss make in The Fourth Turning is that history does not necessarily repeat, but it rhymes. Why is that? Because with each succeeding generation the learnings of the past are forgotten or never learned. As a result, there is a tendency to ignore the past lessons of history as previous generations were not there and did not "live it". The same mistakes are made again and again over time.

For example, children who grew up in the Depression did not later become adults who thought the answer to every need was to borrow the money to get what they wanted today. They saved first and then got what they needed tomorrow. 

On the other hand, Baby Boomers, who grew up in an age of prosperity, and accustomed to the wealth produced by their parents' generation, have no perspective on what that time was like. As a result, they have not provided the necessary financial sobriety that society desperately needs today. We see the results of this lack of perspective every day.

What this all means is that history seems to repeat or rhyme because people react in similar ways within each cycle to the events of the world. For example, why did the American Revolution occur in 1776 and not 1756? The British had been ruling the colonies for years. Why did the Civil War erupt in 1861? Slavery had been controversial and a lighting rod issue between the states since the U.S Constitution was written.  Why did those events occur when they did?

When I read this book in 1998 it seemed an audacious prediction.  America was riding high.  The stock market was booming.  The federal budget was in surplus.  The defense budget was being trimmed every year as there seemed to be no real threats to peace.  All seemed right in America.  It was hard to see what  they were talking about.  Yet the book gave me an uneasy feeling and increased my sensitivity to observing the changes that were going on around me.

One of my blog posts in 2011 when I first began writing BeeLine was about the fact that we had entered The Fourth Turning. 

I wrote the following 13 years ago.

I hope you now understand why I believe that The Fourth Turning is one of the most consequential books of our time. To read these pages today that were written a decade and a half ago is chilling. There is no sugar coating it. We are in for a period where the very survival of the society will feel as if it is at stake. It will be high stakes and high risk. Much like the days of the American Revolution, the Civil War or the Depression Years and World War II. These were the other Fourth Turnings in American history. If you do the math you see that these events were all separated by about 80 years. We have entered a similar era according to Strauss and Howe.

What does it all mean? We need to change our approach. We need leaders that will lead. We need to be decisive in confronting our problems. We need to put the public interest ahead of special interests. There will need to be political upheaval and public sacrifice. There will need to be more personal responsibility and personal accountability. We need to de-fund time-encrusted government bureaucracies. We need to promote traditional virtues.

We need to understand there is a role for government to help us navigate the rough waters ahead of us.  There are many things that only government can do.  To get through this period government and our leaders will have to be the force that can galvanize and unite us to meet the challenge.  We cannot survive the crisis if we are all going our separate ways.  To meet the big challenges of the previous Fourth Turnings like the Revolution, the Civil War and World War II it took a strong government to lead and to galvanize the people to meet the crisis and create a new sustainable civic order. 

We are on a path for a rendezvous with history according to Strauss and Howe.  We have entered The Fourth Turning just as they predicted.  We now need to prove that we are as worthy as our forefathers in meeting the challenge in that rendezvous.  We each will have a role to play.  Are you worthy?

Barack Obama was elected right after the financial meltdown occurred in 2008 signaling the beginning of The Fourth Turning. He ran on a platform that promised he would be the leader that brought us together and would unite us and galvanize us to meet our challenges. Instead, he was largely responsible for further dividing us and fanning the flames of divisions between the races, between rich and poor and spending more time apologizing for America than defending it.

Donald Trump followed Obama and was elected with messages that were almost exactly on point with the major themes that Howe and Strauss wrote about in 1997 that a Fourth Turning leader would likely need to lead the country.. 

The quotes on the left are taken directly from the book of what important themes might be expected from a Fourth Turning leader. My comments on the right are from a blog post in May, 2016 at the time that Trump was just wrapping up the GOP nomination that year entitled "Has The Fourth Turning Brought Us Trump?".

Eight years later that blog post remains one of the five most popular posts I have written over the years based on the number of views.

"Decisive action".  There is very little gray in Trump's outlook.

"Assert public authority."  Think about Trump's views on eminent domain.

"Aggravate rather than alleviate societal pressures." Trump's views and statements on immigration.

"Reverse the decline of the middle class."  His major voting target is forgotten working class voters.

"De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies."  His call to consider the de-funding of NATO.

"Promote traditional values."  "Make America Great Again." 

"More isolationist."  Very consistent with his views on the Middle East.

"Less globally dependent".  His views on NAFTA, China, Japan on trade.

"Defense and Infrastructure."  Two of Trump's favorite topics in every speech. 

Trump did win that election but the establishment and media conspiracy on Russian collusion and all the rest hampered almost all of his efforts to be the transformational leader that he was positioned to be and that the times required.

Trump is now on the ballot again. The voters will also be given a second (third?) chance at the ballot box along with the opportunity to send a real message to the political and media establishment.

I have never forgotten what Howe and Strauss wrote in their book 27 years ago about the leadership required in The Fourth Turning.

"In recent years, many Americans have despaired that their nation no longer produces leaders who can galvanize and inspire. Yet it is the turning, not the nation, that elevates great people to the apex of power. Lincoln and FDR are both cases in point. Both had to wait for the Crisis to hit. An Unraveling (the Third Turning) is an era when most people of intelligence, vision and integrity do not seek (much less get elected to) high public offices.

 After the Fourth Turning arrives, however, a Lincoln-like leader will be more likely to seek office, and a Lincoln-like leader could be exactly what America needs, wants and gets."

Can Trump be that leader if given another chance?

I don't know. 

I am not saying Trump is another Lincoln or even FDR.

However, I do know that the above description does not in any way describe Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg or Gretchen Whitmer nor does it describe what we saw from Barack Obama in eight years.

Like it or not, Donald Trump may be our only chance to survive The Fourth Turning. 

It is late in The Fourth Turning, We are already 16 years in. 

As I stated above, the maximum point of crisis and risk typically arises about 3/4 of the way through The Fourth Turning. 

If Howe and Strauss are right we are the cusp of seeing it unfold. The chances are high that we will reach that point of maximum crisis in the next four years. In each of the previous Fourth Turnings a point was reached in which there was a real question of whether the society we lived in could survive. 

The British could have put down the Revolution and America could have remained a British colony. 

Abraham Lincoln could have let the Confederate states secede and the United States would have been permanently severed.

The United States could have remained an isolationist nation and allowed Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan to run roughshod over their neighbors and the rest of the world.

None of this happened because in each case our leaders and the American people rose to meet the challenge by sacrificing and working together for our future.

We are very close to that point where our society will either survive or become a footnote in history.

Yes, the stakes are that high if Howe and Strauss are anywhere close to predicting what is to come based on the cycles of history.

Reaching a critical crisis point in this Fourth Turning, similar to what we saw with the Revolutionary War, Civil War or World War II, is not inevitable.

After all, history is not made by events but by the reaction of leaders and the populace to the events.

We may be able to steer our way around the events before us.

However, that will require a very steady hand at the wheel.

There are many uncertainties ahead of us but what is certain is that we do not have a steady hand at the wheel right now.

That conclusion has become indisputable over the last ten days.

May God bless the United States of America. 

The Fourth Turning Is Here---Part Two

If you have not read "The Fourth Turning Is Here---Part One" click here.

Since The Fourth Turning was published in 1997 by Neil Howe and William Strauss a lot has changed.

First and foremost, William Strauss passed away in 2007 at the age of 60.

Ironically, he did not live to see the beginning of The Fourth Turning (generally set in 2008) that he and Howe predicted.

Neil Howe carried on the generational theory work that they collaborated on of which The Fourth Turning book was a part of.

I went to several lectures that Neil Howe did over the years to see if I could gain further insights on any current thinking that he might have on The Fourth Turning theory once it was obvious that is where we were.

I never got as much out of those talks as I hoped.

At one point Howe pegged the beginning of the Fourth Turning to coincide with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 as it seemed to represent a critical turning point in the public's loss of trust in government institutions.

Howe later determined that the financial meltdown and Great Recession beginning in 2008 were the catalyst that signaled the beginning of what he refers to as the Millennial Crisis period.  That made more sense as the beginning of The Fourth Turning as it affected everyone.

I have gotten the sense that Howe leans more to the Democrat side and the events of the last 15 years have unsettled him a bit. 

For example, when Barack Obama and the Democrats took almost total control of government in 2009 in the wake of the financial crisis, I believe that the fact that they squandered that crisis with an agenda that focused more on dividing than uniting the country was very troubling to Howe.

The disappointment of the Obama years led to the rise of Donald Trump whose brand of populism  is clearly not Howe's cup of tea. I find this a little perplexing in that Trump's agenda and messaging aligns in most respects with the major themes that Howe and Strauss suggested a Fourth Turning leader would likely need to lead the country.

The quotes on the left are taken directly from the book of the important themes that might be expected from a Fourth Turning leader. My comments on the right are from a blog post in May, 2016 at the time that Trump was just wrapping up the GOP nomination that year entitled "Has The Fourth Turning Brought Us Trump?".

Eight years later that blog post remains one of the five most popular posts I have written over the years based on the number of views.

"Decisive action".  There is very little gray in Trump's outlook.

"Assert public authority."  Think about Trump's views on eminent domain.

"Aggravate rather than alleviate societal pressures." Trump's views and statements on immigration.

"Reverse the decline of the middle class."  His major voting target is forgotten working class voters.

"De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies."  His call to consider the de-funding of NATO.

"Promote traditional values."  "Make America Great Again." 

"More isolationist."  Very consistent with his views on the Middle East.

"Less globally dependent".  His views on NAFTA, China, Japan on trade.

"Defense and Infrastructure."  Two of Trump's favorite topics in every speech. However, late last year, 

I guess that this just confirms that personal biases inevitably filter into almost anything anyone does.

Howe is no exception.

In any event, 26 years after publishing The Fourth Turning, Neil Howe recently released a sequel to the original book titled, The Fourth Turning Is Here.

I recently read the book to find out where Howe believes we are headed next based on the seasons of history.

At the outset, it is important to remember that by any measure we are fairly deep into the Fourth Turning.

In the original book Howe and Strauss predicted that the Fourth Turning would begin sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after. Howe now puts that date at 2008.

Howe and Strauss predicted that the Fourth Turning would last 20 years or so putting the end of the crisis period around the end of this decade.

Why is that important?

The history of past Fourth Turnings has found that the time of maximum crisis is about 3/4 of the way through the Fourth Turning. Howe refers to this as the Climax or Ekpyrosis.

Source: https://www.sokratiko.com/words/ekpyrosis/

This is the period of highest risk and the years in which civic action will reach the point of maximum power. It is the point at which society must come together to either overcome an external foe, internal political division or civil war.

Based on the timetable of the original book that would put us right in that timeframe currently (2024-2026).

In the new book, Howe has pushed out the timetable. He suggests it is most likely that the current Fourth Turning crisis period will probably end between 2032 and 2034. Howe projects the likely year for the Climax to be the last couple of years leading up to the the end of this decade.

One of the reasons for this is that people are generally living longer. 

An important part of the theory is that history is made not be events but by the reaction of people to the events. This means that the same reactions and mistakes are made over the centuries as people do not have the ability to learn from their mistakes. In effect, the last time we were in this position, most of the people alive are now gone.

Howe sees three social stressors that may prove important enough to influence the outcome of the Fourth Turning leading to the Climax or Ekpyrosis.

1. A financial crash

2. Internal conflict

3. External conflict

Howe sees a financial crash as being a distinct possibility in the coming years as the inevitable result of chronic stimulus from the federal government, debt pyramids built on near zero interest rates and promises of Treasury bailouts and Fed backstops in case there's trouble.

More troubling to Howe is the fact that the next crash, when it comes, would be one in which additional stimulus would likely not be available. The reason--the federal government has overextended itself and will simply not be able to afford what is necessary. This will mean that any recovery from a post-pandemic crash will be slow and halting.

Howe sees all of this further feeding tensions between the red and blue tribal factions in the country with each group gravitating to more radical goals and confrontational tactics.

The blue faction will push for higher taxes and more redistribution. The red faction will become more authoritarian on immigration and trade,

Howe suggests that a financial crash will not be the Climax by itself but will be a stressor that leads us there.

That additional stressor will create an even more divided country that may lead to outright civil war.

Howe suggests that "threats of violence may encourage the growth of uniformed "street corps" on both sides."

The end result could actually be another civil war. 

Howe suggests that it is not as far-fetched as it sounds.

The United States fits many of the checklist profiles of a country at risk of civil war.

Trust in government is eroding.

Respect for democratic institutions is weakening.

There are two deeply divided political factions and a population that is heavily armed.

The country has deep divisions on a number of ethnic, cultural and urban vs. rural dimensions.

Each faction wants its country to become something the other detests and each fears the other taking power.

Put all of this together and consider how close to outright civil war we may have come as a result of the assassination attempt on President Trump last Saturday.

A few centimeters combined with the glaringly obvious missteps of the Secret Service would have been all it would have taken to see things quickly spin out of control.

As it is, large numbers of Trump supporters believe that the federal government may have somehow been involved either directly or indirectly in the attempted assassination of Trump.

On the other hand, a recent Morning Consult poll revealed that one-third of Democrat voters believe that Trump staged the assassination attempt.

There seems little doubt that we are living on a precipice of history in which one misstep could put us in a  situation in which there is no return.

Howe postulates that a civil war might result in both sides claiming to legitimately be the United States government. Every federal institution---from Congress to the federal courts to various executive departments might abruptly and awkwardly rupture to two sides based on personal loyalties. The populace could very well be forced to take sides splitting families and communities much like the Civil War of the 1860's. There might be a geographic divide involved (urban vs. rural) as in the Civil War but the division would be much more ideological than geographic.

How does it resolve itself?

Howe only sees two paths to move beyond the deep divisions we have today to the unity we need to move forward as a society.

The first path is that one side wins. The other side loses. There is no middle ground or compromises that typically end conflicts in Fourth Turning crisis periods. 

One side wins and the other side capitulates. There are no peace deals or negotiated settlements in Fourth Turnings. It is winner take all.

The losing side may not be totally wiped away but it reaches a point that it has no choice but to go along with the agenda of the winner. The era of divided government and attitudes ends and the society moves forward united.

This happened during the Revolutionary War when the patriots won and the loyalists to England lost. It happened a second time in the 1780's after Great Britain was defeated. Those who wanted a strong U.S. Constitution prevailed and those who were content with a looser confederation of states lost the argument on how the new U.S. government would operate.

It was also the case in the Civil War when the Republicans from the north who wanted to end slavery won and the Democrats from the southern states who resisted in the name of states' rights lost.

We saw it again during the Depression and World War II where the Republicans who opposed the New Deal and had isolationist views in the 1930's eventually had to capitulate to FDR and the Democrats as we were drawn into World War II. Internal political squabbles ended and all focus went to the war effort.

The second path is that both sides get scared straight by an existential external threat.  It then results in everyone in the society having to united and work together for a common cause in order to survive.

The range of possibilities and outcomes on this second path are daunting as well as sobering.

In this era of AI, drones and weapons of mass destruction the idea of a war that rises to the level of what we have seen in previous Fourth Turnings should give everyone pause

Howe also points out that even in the case of civil war that it is not unlikely that the side that is losing during the conflict is often motivated to solicit external players or nations to their cause.

The patriots did this in the Revolutionary War with French assistance which was as much a civil conflict between patriots and loyalists as it was a war against the British.

We also saw this in the Civil War in which the Confederate States worked very hard to enlist the British or other European powers for their aid against the Union.

However, Howe suggest that nothing is inevitable.

"We The People" control our destiny.

As stated before, history is not made by events but the reaction of people to those events.

It is also true that people can change the course of history.

We can get through the Fourth Turning and to a First Turning that is dominated not by division, crisis and chaos but by unity, confidence and optimism without mayhem and violence.

However, it is going to take the American people acting together to accomplish that.

That is why I see the election this year as so consequential.

There has probably not been another one that rises to this level since the election of 1860.

Our trajectory in the Fourth Turning will not change with another close, divided election result.

To have any chance of navigating from where we seem to be headed it is going to take a decisive victory for one side or the other at the ballot box.

It is obviously much better to get to where we need to be through the democratic process in which the people convincingly decide what type of government they want and need without having to go through the darkest depths of a Fourth Turning.

It is here that my bias shows as I see there is only one direction and party that can feasibly get us to that point at the present time---Donald Trump and the Republicans.

I just don't see that the Democrats have the breadth of support and the commitment of its voters to be a dominant party that is capable of appealing to mainstream voters with the current agenda they have.

It is easy to understand what the Republican Party stands for right now.

The same is not true for the Democrats. The only thing that is clear with Democrats in 2024 is they do not like Donald Trump.

That is not a platform that seems capable of leading to sustained political dominance.

As I have observed the events of the last 15 years or so, and the positions of the political parties have evolved, I often think about this passage on page 312 from the original book, The Fourth Turning, written in 1997.

"History warns that when a Crisis catalyzes, a previously dominant political party (or regime) can find itself directly blamed for perceived 'mistakes' that led to the national emergency.

"That party could find itself out of power for a generation. Key persons associated with it could find themselves defamed, stigmatized, harassed, economically ruined, personally punished---or worse."

Based on where we are right now. does this sound more like the Democrat or Republican Party?

Is it any wonder the Democrats are in full fledged panic mode right now and are on the verge of pushing their duly elected candidate nominee out of the 2024 race despite telling everyone a month ago he was "sharp as a tack"?  

The Fourth Turning is undoubtedly here.

The question remains as to what we are going to do about it? 

The Fourth Turning Has Brought Us Trump

The Presidential election has produced one of the most historic and memorable results in my lifetime.

First and foremost, it is a reminder that in America the people have ultimate sovereign power. Donald Trump ran against the Democrats, the Republican establishment and the entire media elite and still prevailed. Americans often forget how much power they wield in our system. These results prove it.

The hour is late so further analysis will have to wait for another day. However, it appears Trump was able to win because Hillary Clinton was not able to generate the turnout she needed among minority, young and working class Democrat voters and Trump was able to pull the GOP base together while attracting disaffected working class voters.

Trump also effectively made the choice for voters as between CHANGE (Trump) or CORRUPTION (Clinton). Change is inherently risky. And it is even riskier when the candidate is Donald Trump. However, voting for Clinton was also risky by staying with the status quo (a 3rd Obama term) together with the cloud of corruption hanging over her head.

Finally, I will remind you that I wrote "Has The Fourth Turning Brought Us Trump?" last May in which I stated that Donald  Trump had appeared to put the prescription together that could possibly bridge the divide between Republicans and Democrats.

This might be a good time to re-read that post and consider where this all might be leading us.

Has The Fourth Turning Brought Us Trump?
(originally published May 10, 2016)

I have referenced the book "The Fourth Turning" by Neil Howe and William Strauss several times over the years in BeeLine

The Fourth Turning refers to the cycles of history. There is a pattern to history. There are four turns much as there are four seasons.  A new era -or turn- occurs about every two decades or so.

At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future. Turnings come in cycles of four.  Each full cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly 80 years.

There is a Spring which is a High where institutions are strengthening and individualism is weakening and a new civic order is implanting. This was the period beginning right after WW II to the late 1960's

There is a Summer which is the Awakening.  This is an era of spiritual upheaval when the new civic order comes under attack from a new values regime. This period began in the late 1960's with the flower children and Vietnam War protests and lasted until the late 1980's.

There is a Fall which is the Unraveling.  This is a period of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions.  The old civic order decays and the new values regime firmly implants.  This began in the late 1980's and the authors predicted that it would run for about 20 years.

The Fourth Turning is the Crisis which is the Winter.  It is a decisive era of secular upheaval according to Strauss and Howe. In 1997 (when they wrote the book), they predicted that "sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning."

The last Fourth Turning began in 1929 with the stock market crash. It ran until 1946 encompassing both the Great Depression and WWII. Previous Fourth Turnings culminated in the American Revolution and the Civil War. We are talking about events that literally put the entire society at risk.

The authors of The Fourth Turning originally projected 2005 as the target date for the turn stating that it could be several years before or after that date. 9/11 and Katrina could be the turning point but most likely the 2008 financial meltdown marked the catalyst that thrust us into The Fourth Turning. We will not know for sure until we see it all play out. The point of maximum crisis is usually about 3/4 of the way through the FourthTurning. If they are right, we will likely experience it within the next 10 years.

One of the important points that Howe and Strauss make in The Fourth Turning is that history does not necessarily repeat, but it rhymes. Why is that? Because with each succeeding generation the learnings of the past are forgotten or never learned. As a result, there is a tendency to ignore the past lessons of history as previous generations were not there and did not "live it". The same mistakes are made again and again over time.

When I read this book in 1998 it seemed an audacious prediction that we would be entering a period of Crisis. America was riding high. The stock market was booming.  The federal budget was in surplus. The defense budget was being trimmed every year as there seemed to be no real threats to peace. All seemed right in America. It was hard to see what they were talking about. Yet the book gave me an uneasy feeling and increased my sensitivity to observing the changes that were going on around me.

There seems to be little doubt that we are now living in the middle of The Fourth Turning. In fact, the emergence and success of Donald Trump in the political realm confirms it.  The same can be said for the the success of Bernie Sanders in the Democrat primary as well.

One of the key elements in a Fourth Turning is that a point is reached where the public realizes that their institutions are dysfunctional and they come to the conclusion that they are increasingly vulnerable with the current status quo. Such was the case as the colonists grew distrustful and frustrated with British rule, the deep divisions created within the country with slavery that led to the Civil War and the substantial financial hardships that everyone felt in the Great Depression.

A point is reached when the pubic coalesces or large blocs of voters support a strong leader to tear down the existing social, economic and social construct and replace it with something else. The result may be better, or far worse, but the public will nevertheless demand something different.

Barack Obama was perfectly positioned to be that leader as he entered office shortly after The Fourth Turning began. However, he squandered his opportunity. The people voted for hope and change and they got Obamacare and not much else.  He told the people what they wanted to hear. However, instead of being the uniter that people were looking for he just further divided what was already a divided nation.

You begin to see how important this is in political terms when you consider what Strauss and Howe said about where we are headed politically in The Fourth Turning.

"Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political alignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug-of-war, ending the era of split government that had lasted through four decades.  The winners will now have the power to pursue the more potent, less incrementalist agenda which their adversaries had darkly warned.  This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis.  Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation's attention."

The big point here is that a point is reached where the public mood shifts from one that is less concerned with individual rights and more concerned with the collective good. People ultimately will seek this as a means for society to survive the Crisis. It has no other choice.

What will the winning trends from a political standpoint be according to Strauss and Howe as we move through the remainder of The Fourth Turning?

• Calls to close the gap between rich and poor
• Reverse the decline of the middle class
• Expand children's programs relative to senior programs
• Restore an ethic of personal responsibility
• De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies
• Promote traditional values
• America will become more isolationist than today in it unwillingness to coordinate with other countries 
• America will be less globally dependent than it is today with smaller cross-border trade and capital flows
• The economic role of government will shift toward far more spending on defense and public works than on elder care and debt service

I don't know about you, but a lot of this sounds a lot like Donald Trump. Or Bernie Sanders for that matter. It does not sound like Hillary Clinton.

Look at some of the words above and see if you don't agree that in some ways it seems as if Trump has a keen understanding of where we are and what people are looking for. It is as if he is looking ahead and the Republican establishment can only see what is behind them.


"Decisive action".  There is very little gray in Trump's outlook.

"Assert public authority."  Think about Trump's views on eminent domain.

"Aggravate rather than alleviate societal pressures." Trump's views and statements on immigration.

"Reverse the decline of the middle class."  His major voting target is forgotten working class voters.

"De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies."  His call to consider the de-funding of NATO.

"Promote traditional values."  "Make America Great Again."

"More isolationist."  Very consistent with his views of Middle East.

"Less globally dependent".  His attacks on NAFTA, China, Japan on trade.

"Defense and Infrastructure."  Two of Trump's favorite topics in every speech.


If The Fourth Turning has brought us Trump, can he lead us out of the Crisis? We can only hope. There are no promises. History is not made by events but by the reaction of human beings to events. We are hurtling down the road for a rendezvous with history of our own making. The choices that have been made and those that remain to be made will have deep consequences. We can only trust that the American people will make the right choice.

"In recent years, many Americans have despaired that their nation no longer produces leaders who can galvanize and inspire. Yet it is the turning, not the nation, that elevates great people to the apex of power. Lincoln and FDR are both cases in point. Both had to wait for the Crisis to hit. An Unraveling (the Third Turning) is an era when most people of intelligence, vision and integrity do not seek (much less get elected to) high public offices.

After the Fourth Turning arrives, however, a Lincoln-like leader will be more likely to seek office, and a Lincoln-like leader could be exactly what America needs, wants and gets."

I know it is hard to imagine associating Donald Trump and Abraham Lincoln but that might be the bet we are making in 2016. We may need no less than a Lincoln with what lies ahead.

We are not only in The Fourth Turning we are also in the bottom of the ninth inning if you believe the predictions of where Strauss and Howe have us heading. We already have two outs and two strikes on us for putting Obama in the game. This is no time to swing and miss again. Trump's chatter has dumbfounded the chattering class. His chatter has put him one step away from The White House.  He better be able to hit one over the wall...and build a wall while he is doing it!

May God Bless America once again.

Has The Fourth Turning Brought Us Trump?

I have referenced the book "The Fourth Turning" by Neil Howe and William Strauss several times over the years in BeeLine.

The Fourth Turning refers to the cycles of history. There is a pattern to history. There are four turns much as there are four seasons.  A new era -or turn- occurs about every two decades or so.

At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future. Turnings come in cycles of four.  Each full cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly 80 years.

There is a Spring which is a High where institutions are strengthening and individualism is weakening and a new civic order is implanting. This was the period beginning right after WW II to the late 1960's

There is a Summer which is the Awakening.  This is an era of spiritual upheaval when the new civic order comes under attack from a new values regime. This period began in the late 1960's with the flower children and Vietnam War protests and lasted until the late 1980's.

There is a Fall which is the Unraveling.  This is a period of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions.  The old civic order decays and the new values regime firmly implants.  This began in the late 1980's and the authors predicted that it would run for about 20 years.

The Fourth Turning is the Crisis which is the Winter.  It is a decisive era of secular upheaval according to Strauss and Howe. In 1997 (when they wrote the book), they predicted that "sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning."

The last Fourth Turning began in 1929 with the stock market crash. It ran until 1946 encompassing both the Great Depression and WWII. Previous Fourth Turnings culminated in the American Revolution and the Civil War. We are talking about events that literally put the entire society at risk.

The authors of The Fourth Turning originally projected 2005 as the target date for the turn stating that it could be several years before or after that date. 9/11 and Katrina could be the turning point but most likely the 2008 financial meltdown marked the catalyst that thrust us into The Fourth Turning. We will not know for sure until we see it all play out. The point of maximum crisis is usually about 3/4 of the way through the FourthTurning. If they are right, we will likely experience it within the next 10 years.

One of the important points that Howe and Strauss make in The Fourth Turning is that history does not necessarily repeat, but it rhymes. Why is that? Because with each succeeding generation the learnings of the past are forgotten or never learned. As a result, there is a tendency to ignore the past lessons of history as previous generations were not there and did not "live it". The same mistakes are made again and again over time.

When I read this book in 1998 it seemed an audacious prediction that we would be entering a period of Crisis. America was riding high. The stock market was booming.  The federal budget was in surplus. The defense budget was being trimmed every year as there seemed to be no real threats to peace. All seemed right in America. It was hard to see what they were talking about. Yet the book gave me an uneasy feeling and increased my sensitivity to observing the changes that were going on around me.

There seems to be little doubt that we are now living in the middle of The Fourth Turning. In fact, the emergence and success of Donald Trump in the political realm confirms it.  The same can be said for the the success of Bernie Sanders in the Democrat primary as well.

One of the key elements in a Fourth Turning is that a point is reached where the public realizes that their institutions are dysfunctional and they come to the conclusion that they are increasingly vulnerable with the current status quo. Such was the case as the colonists grew distrustful and frustrated with British rule, the deep divisions created within the country with slavery that led to the Civil War and the substantial financial hardships that everyone felt in the Great Depression.

A point is reached when the pubic coalesces or large blocs of voters support a strong leader to tear down the existing social, economic and social construct and replace it with something else. The result may be better, or far worse, but the public will nevertheless demand something different.

Barack Obama was perfectly positioned to be that leader as he entered office shortly after The Fourth Turning began. However, he squandered his opportunity. The people voted for hope and change and they got Obamacare and not much else.  He told the people what they wanted to hear. However, instead of being the uniter that people were looking for he just further divided what was already a divided nation.

You begin to see how important this is in political terms when you consider what Strauss and Howe said about where we are headed politically in The Fourth Turning.

"Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political alignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug-of-war, ending the era of split government that had lasted through four decades.  The winners will now have the power to pursue the more potent, less incrementalist agenda which their adversaries had darkly warned.  This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis.  Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation's attention."

The big point here is that a point is reached where the public mood shifts from one that is less concerned with individual rights and more concerned with the collective good. People ultimately will seek this as a means for society to survive the Crisis. It has no other choice.

What will the winning trends from a political standpoint be according to Strauss and Howe as we move through the remainder of The Fourth Turning?

• Calls to close the gap between rich and poor
• Reverse the decline of the middle class
• Expand children's programs relative to senior programs
• Restore an ethic of personal responsibility
• De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies
• Promote traditional values
• America will become more isolationist than today in it unwillingness to coordinate with other countries 
• America will be less globally dependent than it is today with smaller cross-border trade and capital flows
• The economic role of government will shift toward far more spending on defense and public works than on elder care and debt service

I don't know about you, but a lot of this sounds a lot like Donald Trump. Or Bernie Sanders for that matter. It does not sound like Hillary Clinton.

Look at some of the words above and see if you don't agree that in some ways it seems as if Trump has a keen understanding of where we are and what people are looking for. It is as if he is looking ahead and the Republican establishment can only see what is behind them.

"Decisive action".  There is very little gray in Trump's outlook.

"Assert public authority."  Think about Trump's views on eminent domain.

"Aggravate rather than alleviate societal pressures." Trump's views and statements on immigration.

"Reverse the decline of the middle class."  His major voting target is forgotten working class voters.

"De-fund time-encrusted bureaucracies."  His call to consider the de-funding of NATO.

"Promote traditional values."  "Make America Great Again." 

"More isolationist."  Very consistent with his views of Middle East.

"Less globally dependent".  His attacks on NAFTA, China, Japan on trade.

"Defense and Infrastructure."  Two of Trump's favorite topics in every speech. 

If The Fourth Turning has brought us Trump, can he lead us out of the Crisis? We can only hope. There are no promises. History is not made by events but by the reaction of human beings to events. We are hurtling down the road for a rendezvous with history of our own making. The choices that have been made and those that remain to be made will have deep consequences. We can only trust that the American people will make the right choice.

"In recent years, many Americans have despaired that their nation no longer produces leaders who can galvanize and inspire. Yet it is the turning, not the nation, that elevates great people to the apex of power. Lincoln and FDR are both cases in point. Both had to wait for the Crisis to hit. An Unraveling (the Third Turning) is an era when most people of intelligence, vision and integrity do not seek (much less get elected to) high public offices.

 After the Fourth Turning arrives, however, a Lincoln-like leader will be more likely to seek office, and a Lincoln-like leader could be exactly what America needs, wants and gets."

Credit: History News Network

I know it is hard to imagine associating Donald Trump and Abraham Lincoln but that might be the bet we are making in 2016. We may need no less than a Lincoln with what lies ahead.

We are not only in The Fourth Turning we are also in the bottom of the ninth inning if you believe the predictions of where Strauss and Howe have us heading. We already have two outs and two strikes on us for putting Obama in the game. This is no time to swing and miss again. Trump's chatter has dumbfounded the chattering class. His chatter has put him one step away from The White House.  He better be able to hit one over the wall...and build a wall while he is doing it!

May God Bless America once again.

The Fourth Turning Is Here---Part Three

In my series of blog posts on "The Fourth Turning Is Here" in part one I  provided an overview of the theory behind the The Fourth Turning and what we have seen in similar periods in the past.

In part two of this series I outlined where we are in The Fourth Turning and what might lead us to the climax period and when this crisis period we are in will end.

In this final blog post of the series  I will summarize what happens on the other side of the crisis period. 

What can we expect insofar as changes in the attitudes of the populace and how society might change as we progress through the final stages and beyond in The Fourth Turning,

When I first read the book, The Fourth Turning, over 25 years ago, the prediction of where we were heading was sobering and depressing.

As I was entering into the later stages of my life the last thing I wanted to hear was that crisis, chaos and societal challenges were in the future.

Then again, I also understood that the theory of The Fourth Turning and the seasons of history meant that everyone would necessarily have to endure the crisis period at some point in their lives.

Some were born into the crisis period. Others came face to face with it when they were just coming of age or in mid-life. Some saw it in their elder years.

Everyone would have to face the Fourth Turning challenge to our society at some point in their lives.

Despite the fact that there was a feeling of pessimism in me when I first read The Fourth Turning in the last 1990's looking to the future, the book also suggested that the seasons of history pointed to a more optimistic future on the other side of the crisis.

During a good part of my life, families had been weakening.

Virtue, values and ideals have been under attack.

Gender roles have gotten more confused and indistinguishable from each other.

Decisions were made more on what felt right than what worked or what was right.

Trust in our Institutions was consistently eroding.

Individualism ruled over the community.

There were deep divisions in society on almost all issues. There was little unity of agreement on anything.

The vision of the future became increasingly foreboding with each successive decade of my life.

The silver lining in The Fourth Turning is that it will inevitably cause the mood of the society to change.

It will have to change if society is to survive the crisis.

There are brighter days ahead once we get beyond this crisis period of history.

Families will become more important.

The gap in gender roles will become wider and more clearly defined.

Common sense and doing what works will become more important than what someone "feels" is right.

Our Institutions will be trusted again.

Community values will become important. Those that buck the system will be looked down on.

There will be a new unity of purpose and an optimistic outlook on life and society's future.

This graphic from the book summarizes how social moods change in each of the four turnings.

Credit: https://krusekronicle.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/moods.gif

 

We will not go back to the halcyon days of the 1950's and early 1960's. History does not repeat but it does rhyme.  However, we should be at a place with less division, a clearer view of what is right and wrong and a society in which there is more accountability and individual responsibility than has existed for a long time in the United States.

It is just sad that our society will have to be tested in ways that most of us have never experienced to get us to that point.

However, that seems to be necessary in order to get more unity, less division, more simplicity, less complexity, stronger families, children who are more independent and community values that are more clearly defined and accepted.

History tells us that there is real hope that there are changes for the better on the other side of the mountain in front of us right now.

At The Helm At The Fourth Turning

The headlines are dispiriting and depressing.

ISIS.

Russia and Ukraine.

The Beheading of Americans.

Hamas and Israel.

IRS Scandal.

Benghazi.

VA Scandal.

Obamacare.

Border Chaos.

Racial Violence.

Bergdahl/Taliban Swap.

$17.5 Trillion in Debt.

Everything seems to be unraveling before our eyes. Any one of these headlines could drive news coverage for months. However, there is only room for one headline at a time and each of us only has so much bandwidth. What is really scary is that all of these headline issues are still there. They just got moved to the back burner in the news cycle but they are all still burning red hot in the background. We just don't notice because of whatever conflagration that is on the front burner that day.

When does it stop?

I wrote this the day after the last Presidential election.

The results of yesterday's election clearly show that we are in The Fourth Turning. History is not made by events but by the reaction of human beings to events.  We saw clear evidence of that yesterday.  We are hurtling down the road for a rendezvous with history of our own making.  Two clearly marked paths were there for choosing.  The American people made their choice.  We all will have to deal with where it leads.

I have written about the book, The Fourth Turning, by Neil Howe and William Strauss several times in BeeLine.

The Fourth Turning refers to the cycles of history.  There is a pattern to history. There are four turns much as there are four seasons.  A new era -or turn- occurs about every two decades or so.  As the authors describe it...

At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future.  Turnings come in cycles of four.  Each full cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly 80 years.

The four turnings are much like the seasons. And each lasts roughly 20 years.

There is a Spring which is a High where institutions are strengthening and individualism is weakening and a new civic order is implanting.  This was the period beginning right after WW II to the late 1960's

There is a Summer which is the Awakening.  This is an era of spiritual upheaval when the new civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.  This period began in the late 1960's with the flower children and Vietnam War protests and lasted until the late 1980's.

There is a Fall which is the Unraveling.  This is a period of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions.  The old civic order decays and the new values regime firmly implants.  This began in the late 1980's and the authors predicted that it would run for about 20 years.

The Fourth Turning is the Crisis which is the Winter.  It is a decisive era of secular upheaval according to Strauss and Howe. In 1997 (when they wrote the book), they predicted that "sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning."

The last Fourth Turning began in 1929 with the stock market crash. It ran until 1946 encompassing both the Great Depression and WWII. The authors of The Fourth Turning originally projected 2005 as the target date for the turn stating that it could be several years before or after that date. 9/11, Katrina and the 2008 financial meltdown might all be likely beginnings. We will not know for sure until we see it all play out. The point of maximum crisis is usually about 3/4 of the way through the FourthTurning. If they are right we will likely see it within the next 10 years.

One of the important points that Howe and Strauss make in The Fourth Turning is that history does not necessarily repeat, but it rhymes. Why is that? Because with each succeeding generation the learnings of the past are forgotten or never learned. As a result, there is a tendency to ignore the past lessons of history as previous generations were not there and did not "live it". The same mistakes are made again and again over time.

For example, children who grew up in the Depression did not later become adults who thought the answer to every need was to borrow the money to get what they wanted today. They saved first and then got what they needed tomorrow. On the other hand, Baby Boomers, who grew up in an age of prosperity, and accustomed to the wealth produced by their parents' generation, have no perspective on what that time was like. As a result, they have not provided the necessary financial sobriety that society desperately needs today. We see the results of this lack of perspective every day.

What this all means is that history seems to repeat or rhyme because people react in similar ways within each cycle to the events of the world. For example, why did the American Revolution occur in 1776 and not 1756? The British had been ruling the colonies for years. Why did the Civil War erupt in 1861? Slavery had been controversial and a lighting rod issue between the states since the U.S Constitution was written.  Why did those events occur when they did?

When you look at the headlines above you can clearly see the huge impact that the election of Barack Obama has had on the direction of the country.  Obama did not initiate Middle East turmoil, create the IRS or become the first United States President to fail to secure our southern border. However, if you look at the headlines you see that his reactions to each of the issues is having an enormous effect on the direction of our country and where history will take us.

Mitt Romney or John McCain would have undoubtedly taken us in a very different direction on a number of these issues. Each might have been better or worse although it is hard to imagine right now how the sum total could be worse.

Of course, the American voter provided the power to Barack Obama. He would not be there but for the choice the American people made. The voters also have short memories and lack perspective based on their life experience.

As I re-read parts of  The Fourth Turning over the weekend and thought about where we are right now, I could not help noticing once again how Howe and Strauss describe what they believe public reaction will be when the realization finally sinks into the American public that we are in Crisis. What will be the reaction of the American people once we reach the point that everyone realizes that that life as we know is gone and the future we expected is at risk?

Eventually, all of America's lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of society will feel at stake...

History warns that when a Crisis catalyzes, a previously dominant political party (or regime) can find itself directly blamed for perceived "mistakes" that led to the national emergency. 

Key persons associated with it could find themselves defamed, stigmatized, harassed, economically ruined, personally punished---or worse. 

I will let you fill in the blanks as to whose reputation is most on the line right now.  He may leave office with some of his reputation intact but if what follows after 2016 is more of the same there is going to be plenty of blame to pass around between him and his successor.

It may actually be a good idea to enjoy the golf now. Retirement may prove to be a difficult season for anyone who was at the helm in the middle of The Fourth Turning.

Paul Ryan Brings Us To The Fourth Turning

Paul Ryan recently joked that President Obama was lost because "he only knows left turns".

It was a nice line but the practical problem with anyone just making left turns when they are lost is they end up in the same place at some point.

The same can also be said about someone only making right turns.

The problems that we have today require much better navigational and leadership skills than we have gotten from President Obama.   We need a leader who can work through left turns, right turns, curves and a lot of uphill driving.

Most importantly, they have to deal with the fact that we are in "The Fourth Turning."

I have written before about The Fourth Turning, the excellent book by Neil Howe and William Strauss, which refers to the patterns of history and how that cycle affects our culture, civic order and history.  The book was written in 1997 and they predicted that "sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter The Fourth Turning."  With The Fourth Turning comes a period of upheaval that the nation has experienced every 80 years or so just as it has in other societies over time.  It is a time of Crisis in which the very survival of society will eventually seem to be at risk.

Think about our history beginning with the Revolutionary War in 1776.

1856-1865  Slavery issue leads to The Civil War

1929-1945  The Depression and World War II

2001, 2005 or 2008  World Trade Center, Katrina or the Financial Meltdown are all possible indicators that The Fourth Turning is in motion.  We will not know for sure when The Fourth Turning actually began until we view things in the fullness of time, but there seems to be little doubt we have made the turn.

This is what I wrote about The Fourth Turning just over a year ago.

What does it all mean?  We need to change our approach.  We need leaders that will lead.  We need to be decisive in confronting our problems.  We need to put the public interest ahead of special interests.  There will need to be political upheaval and public sacrifice.  There will need to be more personal responsibility and personal accountability.  We need to de-fund time-encrusted government bureaucracies.  We need to promote traditional virtues.

We also need to focus on reversing the decline of the middle class and focus more on children and less on senior programs.   We need less class warfare and find better ways to build bridges between the classes.  We need to understand it is about our country and not about us.

We need to understand there is a role for government to help us navigate the rough waters ahead of us.  There are many things that only government can do.  To get through this period government will have to be the force that can galvanize and unite us to meet the challenge.  We cannot survive the crisis if we are all going our separate ways.  To meet the big challenges of the previous Fourth Turnings like the Revolution, the Civil War and World War II it took a strong government to lead and to galvanize the people to meet the crisis and create a new sustainable civic order. 

I am not talking about the type of government we have now. 

Our Constitution specifically states that the key duties of our government are to provide for the common defense and promote the general welfare. It was not designed to pick winners and losers. Its role was seen to protect both and to see that both had a level playing field. It is supposed to be about the public interest rather than special interests.  It is about what is best for the United States rather than US as individuals.  This is the type of government that helped us survive previous Fourth Turnings.

We do not yet have the leadership or government in place yet to do what needs to be done.  However, I see the glimmer of true hope and change starting to emerge. 

The selection of Paul Ryan by Mitt Romney is a sure sign that the glimmer I saw a year ago for hope in confronting the crisis is taking form.  Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are positioning this election as a clear choice.  This is a debt we owe Paul Ryan.  He almost single-handedly changed the debate in Washington about our budget problems.  He talked about confronting our problems and he led with ideas to do something about it.  Paul Ryan has brought us to what has to be done to meet the challenges of The Fourth Turning.

The decision whether to meet that challenge now will be up to the American people.  However, there is no choice if we want to continue to exist with anything close to the society we are used to.  We will have to decide to meet the challenge or else.  The stakes are that big.

Strauss and Howe do not suggest that we have to be fatalistic in responding to The Fourth Turning.  If the cycles of history were seasons, we have entered the Winter months.  That does not mean that you cannot prepare and survive the season.  It is a choice about how you go about it.  You can understand the environment and prepare and do what has to be done in that season.  In addition, the earlier you accept what you are facing and confront the crisis, the better you will be.

If you wish to get more out of life (or nature), you have the power to do that, but it takes work.  You and your society have the power to influence history, but that takes work too-and always, your efforts must be appropriate for the time.  

The choice is there for the American people this November but it remains in doubt whether there are enough who understand the gravity of our current situation.  However, the stakes are huge for both parties according to Howe and Strauss.

Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political alignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action.  Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug-of-war, ending the era of split government that had lasted through four decades.  The winners will now have the power to pursue the more potent, less incrementalist agenda which their adversaries had darkly warned.  This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis.  Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice.  Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation's attention.

In the 2008 election I thought Barack Obama and the Democrats had this sweeping political alignment in their grasp.  However, the agenda that they pursued did not align with the public's demand for decisive action on the economy, jobs, dealing with special interests and seeing Washington work together.  The people voted for hope and change and they got Obamacare and not much else.  The 2010 mid-term elections put the political alignment back in play and Paul Ryan finally got the platform he needed to change the debate in Washington and bring us face to face with The Fourth Turning.

This is our rendezvous with history.  Everyone needs to ask if they are ready.  If not now, when?  If not us, who?  Paul Ryan answered these a while ago.  Mitt Romney's answer is also in.  Where are you?

The Fourth Turning

In 1998 I read a book that had a tremendous impact on my understanding of history, my view of the future and how the perspective of the American people will change over time .  That book is the The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe.  I recommend it often and I still re-read it and refer to it even though it was written 14 years ago.

The Fourth Turning refers to the cycles of history.  There is a pattern to history. There are four turns much as there are four seasons.  A new era -or turn- occurs about every two decades or so.  As the authors describe it...

At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future.  Turnings come in cycles of four.  Each cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly 80 to 100 years. 

The four turnings are much like the seasons.

There is a Spring which is a High where institutions are strengthening and individualism is weakening and a new civic order is implanting.  This was the period beginning right after WW II to the late 1960's

There is a Summer which is the Awakening.  This is an era of spiritual upheaval when the new civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.  This period began in the late 1960's with the flower children and Vietnam War protests and lasted until the late 1980's.

There is a Fall which is the Unraveling.  This is a period of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions.  The old civic order decays and the new values regime firmly implants.  This began in the late 1980's and the authors predicted that it would run for about 20 years.

The Fourth Turning is the Crisis.  It is a decisive era of secular upheaval according to Strauss and Howe. In 1997, they predicted that "sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning."

When I read this book in 1998 it seemed an audacious prediction.  America was riding high.  The stock market was booming.  The federal budget was in surplus.  The defense budget was being trimmed every year as there seemed to be no real threats to peace.  All seemed right in America.  It was hard to see what  they were talking about.  Yet the book gave me an uneasy feeling and increased my sensitivity to observing the changes that were going on around me.

Consider the news of the day.  Trillions in deficit spending and no end in sight.  US Treasuries downgraded.  The Dow down 1,800 points in the last 3 weeks.  A leadership vacuum in The White House and gridlock in Congress.  Three wars in the Middle East.

I hope you now understand why I believe that The Fourth Turning is one of the most consequential books of our time.  To read these pages today that were written a decade and a half ago is chilling.  There is no sugar coating it.  We are in for a period where the very survival of the society will feel as if it is at stake.  It will be high stakes and high risk.  Much like the days of the American Revolution, the Civil War or the Depression Years and World War II.  These were the other Fourth Turnings in American history.  If you do the math you see that these events were all separated by about 80 years.  We have entered a similar era according to Strauss and Howe.

What does it all mean?  We need to change our approach.  We need leaders that will lead.  We need to be decisive in confronting our problems.  We need to put the public interest ahead of special interests.  There will need to be political upheaval and public sacrifice.  There will need to be more personal responsibility and personal accountability.  We need to de-fund time-encrusted government bureaucracies.  We need to promote traditional virtues.

We also need to focus on reversing the decline of the middle class and focus more on children and less on senior programs.   We need less class warfare and find better ways to build bridges between the classes.  We need to understand it is about our country and not about us.

We need to understand there is a role for government to help us navigate the rough waters ahead of us.  There are many things that only government can do.  To get through this period government will have to be the force that can galvanize and unite us to meet the challenge.  We cannot survive the crisis if we are all going our separate ways.  To meet the big challenges of the previous Fourth Turnings like the Revolution, the Civil War and World War II it took a strong government to lead and to galvanize the people to meet the crisis and create a new sustainable civic order.

I am not talking about the type of government we have now.

Our Constitution specifically states that the key duties of our government are to provide for the common defense and promote the general welfare. It was not designed to pick winners and losers. Its role was seen to protect both and to see that both had a level playing field. It is supposed to be about the public interest rather than special interests.  It is about what is best for the United States rather than US as individuals.  This is the type of government that helped us survive previous Fourth Turnings.


We do not yet have the leadership or government in place yet to do what needs to be done.  However, I see the glimmer of true hope and change starting to emerge.

We are on a path for a rendezvous with history according to Strauss and Howe.  We have entered The Fourth Turning just as they predicted.  We now need to prove that we are as worthy as our forefathers in meeting the challenge in that rendezvous.  We each will have a role to play.  Are you worthy?

Turns Ahead

It seems that the situation involving Covid-19 is about to get even more interesting.

Today we saw the announcement that a single corporate management meeting by Biogen that was held in Boston involving 175 managers from around the world (including Italy) is now known to be responsible for 70 of the 92 people infected by the virus in Massachusetts. Attendees at the meeting have also developed cases in other states.

Shortly thereafter Harvard University announced that it would no longer have face-to face classes and that all instruction would be online after the school returns from Spring Break.

Ohio State University and other schools made similar announcements today. I would expect this practice will be followed by hundreds of colleges soon.

Ohio's Governor recommended that all indoor events be closed to the general public. The Mid American Conference basketball championships this weekend in Cleveland will only be open to athletic officials, family and friends. The Big West Conference is doing the same.

It would not surprise me to see the NCAA basketball tournament that is scheduled to begin next week end up with a similar fate. The first round play-in games are scheduled for Dayton, Ohio beginning on Tuesday.

What about The Masters? Opening Day for major league baseball? NHL hockey and NBA basketball? It will not take much more before these will be tv events only. How far is this going to go?

Is all of this an overreaction? Possibly. However, look at the effects from that one business meeting in Boston. When dealing with the unknown it is far safer to err on the side of caution.

One of the challenges in dealing with what we are confronting right now with the global outbreak is how much is unknown about the virus.

This has resulted in widely divergent views. Some argue that all of it is overblown. They believe it is not much different than the ordinary flu.

There are others who are suggesting that this is the end times.

From my perspective, neither viewpoint is helping the situation.

What we are dealing with seems to be much more serious than the ordinary flu. Look at the extraordinary quarantine efforts that the Chinese initiated. Look no further than what is going on in Italy and Iran right now. Look at the effects from that one Biogen meeting.

At the same time, it increasingly looks as if the virus is really most lethal only to those who are elderly, frail or who have compromised immune systems. In fact, the CDC stated yesterday that Covid-19 appears to actually be less dangerous to children than the ordinary flu.

At a time with so many unknowns, so much emotion, and the additional reality that many are trying to politicize the issue, what are some real facts about what we know about the virus?

Here are a few facts that I have been able to put together based on research from various sources including the CDC, www.Worldometers.info and a great post on Twitter by L. All of this is based on global data.

• Incubation period for the disease is 5.2 days and generally ranges from between 2-14 days. Maximum recorded was 27 days.

• Mortality rate is higher for men (2.8%) than women (1.7%). Mortality risk increases with age.

By Age

80+ years: 14.8%
70 - 79: 8.0%
60 - 69: 3.6%
50 - 59: 1.3%
40 - 49: 0.4%
30 - 39: 0.2%
20 - 29: 0.2%
10 - 19: 0.2%
0 - 9:     0.0%

The U.S. Surgeon General reported that the average age of those who had died from Covid-19 in the United States was 80 as of March 9, 2020.

• Of those cases with an outcome from the illness worldwide, 94% recovered/discharged and 6% died.

Of those currently infected, 88% have a mild condition and 12% are in serious/critical condition.

Cases in major countries as of March 11.

Credit:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

One of the encouraging items in this recent data is the reduction in new cases in China as well as Japan which a month ago were the hot spots for the virus in the world. They have been replaced by Italy and Iran.

A total of 270 all over the world died from Covid-19 yesterday.

For perspective, over 1,300 died from the seasonal flu.

835 mothers died during childbirth.

Almost 3,000 people committed suicide.

More than 22,000 died from cancer.

200 people die from snakebites around the world in a typical day.

The other big news of the day was the announcement by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo that the state was creating a "containment area" around a community in New Rochelle, New York in an attempt to limit the spread of the virus to an area that quickly has become "ground zero" for Covid-19 cases in the state.

The containment area is centered around a synagogue which accounts for 108 of the state's 173 cases.

"It is a dramatic action, but it is the largest cluster in the country," Cuomo said. "And this is literally a matter of life and death."

A synagogue in the city has become the epicenter of an outbreak in Westchester County — which accounts for 108 of New York state's 173 coronavirus cases. Hundreds of people in the Young Israel congregation have already been under a voluntary quarantine order that was issued last week. The congregation's rabbi has confirmed that he is among those who have tested positive for the virus.

As of Tuesday, that synagogue is also at the center of a circle that extends for a 1-mile radius, marking the state's containment area. Residents would still be allowed to move around — but the new policy effectively blocks any large public gatherings in the area, to prevent further transmission of the virus.

The National Guard is also being called on to assist in carrying out any functions in the zone but Cuomo states they will not be performing any policing functions,

Seeing all of this is further proof that we are in The Fourth Turning which I have written about a number of times in these pages. Here is the most recent blog post I wrote about the book shortly after Donald Trump was elected President.

The Fourth Turning is a book written in 1997 by William Strauss and Neil Howe that refers to the cycles of history. There is a pattern to history. There are four turns much as there are four seasons.  A new era -or turn- occurs about every two decades or so.

At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future. Turnings come in cycles of four.  Each full cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly 80 years.

There is a Spring which is a High where institutions are strengthening and individualism is weakening and a new civic order is implanting. This was the period beginning right after WW II to the late 1960's

There is a Summer which is the Awakening.  This is an era of spiritual upheaval when the new civic order comes under attack from a new values regime. This period began in the late 1960's with the flower children and Vietnam War protests and lasted until the late 1980's.

There is a Fall which is the Unraveling.  This is a period of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions.  The old civic order decays and the new values regime firmly implants.  This began in the late 1980's and the authors predicted that it would run for about 20 years.

The Fourth Turning is the Crisis which is the Winter.  It is a decisive era of secular upheaval according to Strauss and Howe. In 1997 (when they wrote the book), they predicted that "sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning."

The authors of The Fourth Turning originally projected 2005 as the target date for the turn stating that it could be several years before or after that date. 9/11 and Katrina could be the turning point but most likely the 2008 financial meltdown marked the catalyst that thrust us into The Fourth Turning. We will not know for sure until we see it all play out. The point of maximum crisis is usually about 3/4 of the way through the Fourth Turning. Depending on the start date of The Fourth Turning we are very close to the point of maximum crisis.

Could Covid-19 be the catalyst that takes us to the point of maximum crisis?

When Strauss and Howe wrote The Fourth Turning in 1997 they listed some plausible scenarios that could be catalysts to crisis.

Here is one of several they suggested 23 years ago (you can find it on page 273 of the book).

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announces the spread of a new communicable virus. The disease reaches densely populated areas, killing some. Congress enacts mandatory quarantine measures. The President orders the National Guard to throw prophylactic cordons around unsafe neighborhoods. Mayors resist. Urban gangs battle suburban militias. Calls mount for the President to declare martial law.

A little eerie?

The big takeaway from The Fourth Turning is that when the nation hits the crisis climax point (as we did previously with the Revolutionary War, Civil War, Depression/World War II---notice that all were separated by approximately 80 years) the people came to realize that the very survival of society is at stake.

At that point the public mood shifts to one that is less concerned with individual rights and more concerned with the collective good. People ultimately will seek this as a means for society to survive the Crisis. It has no other choice.

We have lived through a long period of division, divisiveness, rancor and acrimony in the United States. It is hard to see this era ending in that we have lived with it for so long.

However, as Winter turns to Spring, history also has its turns. Looking at history reminds us that periods of crisis can make us all stronger. It is times like this that makes it clear that we need to focus more on what unites us than divides us.

Perhaps Covid-19 is not the catalyst for the Crisis climax that changes the public mood to one that values unity over division and rational dialogue over rancor. I do know that nothing lasts forever. This virus will not last forever. The divisiveness and acrimony will also soften at some point.

In the meantime, a good portion of the population may soon be exposed to a much different world than they have experienced in their lives before. That is starting to be made clear with the news from today.

My hope is that what we are dealing with is short-lived. Let's pray we soon find truths and facts about what we are dealing with to return to normalcy as soon as possible. However, at this point, we can't go back to when almost no one had ever heard of the coronavirus or Wuhan, China. We can only deal with it as best we can.

I would suggest that it is a good time to remember this no matter what turns are ahead for us...

And we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them who are the called according to his purpose.       

-Romans 8:28

Amen.