Monday Meanderings-10/18/21

Another edition of Monday Meanderings looking at interesting factoids that may make you say "hmmm", "ahah" or bang your head against the wall.

Small Business Outlook Not Good

I wonder what happened in 2017 that gave small business such a positive outlook?

We know what happened in early 2020 for that outlook to fall but why is it heading even lower in 2021?

I wonder.

Source: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1447923132019453966/photo/1

Job Happiness With Younger Workers Not Good Either

Over 60% of the 18-34 age group voted for Joe Biden and the Democrats.

Why aren't they happy working?

The decline started right after Biden took office?

Did they think they would not have to work and stimulus money would continue forever?

Prices of Food

CPI- Food Index.

What inflation?

Source: https://twitter.com/asymmetricbets/status/1447391322852270083

According to the White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki this is because of the "progress" that the Biden administration has made with the economy.

"We're at this point because the unemployment rate has come down and been cut in half,"..."because people are buying more goods, because people are traveling, and because demand is up, and because the economy is turning back on."

I get dizzy with that much SPIN. 

Energy Prices

A chart of prices for oil and natural gas over the last 12 months.

Oil + 96%

Natural Gas +157%

Oil (blue/left scale) and Natural Gas (orange/right scale) Prices Over Last 12 Months
Source:https://www.macrotrends.net/2500/crude-oil-vs-natural-gas-chart

Winter is coming and oil and natural gas become pretty important at that time of year.

More progress I guess.

The Rise, Fall and Rise of Covid Cases

There is a cool data visualization that someone has done on the 7-day average of Covid cases from the beginning of the pandemic to early October time lapsed over 60 seconds.

It gives a great perspective on how the virus has moved seasonally and regionally over time irrespective of interventions.

Here is a screenshot from October 1, 2020.

Here is a screenshot from October 1, 2021.

What jumps out at you?

Cases in both years are clustered more predominantly in the northern states as the weather gets cooler and people spend more time indoors.

However, we had many more cases in 2021 than in 2020.

This is after almost 80% of the adult population has received at least one dose of the vaccine that we were told was going to end the pandemic.

Is this more progress?

By contrast, here is the screenshot for August 1, 2020.

Cases clustered more in the Sunbelt where people are seeking air conditioning to beat the summer heat.

Here is the screenshot for August 1, 2021.

By the way, Florida which was the hot spot in August is now ranked 49th in per capita cases (tied with CT) among the 50 states despite employing no interventions--no mask, vaccine or other mandates.

The U.S. states and territories with the lowest 7-day averages in cases per 100,000 per the latest New York Times summary.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

The big question right now is what the map is going to look like on December 1, 2021?

This is what it looked like on that date last year.

Approximately 80% of those age 12+ should be double vaccinated by December 1. Millions will have had boosters. We will have started vaccinating children as young as 5 years of age. Untold numbers will have been terminated from their jobs or not allowed to go into a restaurant or other public space for not agreeing to the vaccine mandate.

If the map doesn't look almost completely green at that time is someone going to admit that something is not working as designed?

If Only There Was A Vaccine For Hopelessness

The Biden administration has mandated that all military service members be vaccinated against Covid or risk being terminated from duty.

This headline puts the lunacy of that mandate in perspective.

More U.S. military members died of suicide in one quarter of the year than have succumbed to Covid in over a year and a half and it makes sense to discharge those who don't want to be vaccinated?

The Navy, in particular,  must be getting nervous about the loss of highly trained pilots, SEALs, nuclear and language specialists due to the mandate because it is now telling sailors that they may be liable for paying back all of their training costs if they don't comply.

Training costs for pilots and SEALs and other specialities can run into the millions of dollars.

Discharge is no longer a sufficient threat?

Is this real life? 

We have entered the Twilight Zone.

No masks allowed for Halloween. Required every other day.

If you doubt we have entered the Twilight Zone consider this directive from the Wheaton North High School in suburban Chicago.

No masks allowed for Halloween.

Masks required every other day of the school year.

Nothing to prevent the clear identity of the student?

Benefits and Risks 

I have written multiple times in these pages about the fact that every medical intervention carries benefits and risk that must be weighed.

That is particularly true for the Covid vaccines.

The benefit/risk profile is different for everyone. 

It may make a lot of sense for someone older. It may make little sense if younger.

Despite that fact, we have heard a constant narrative that the vaccines are safe and effective for EVERYONE. That will soon include children as young as 5 years of age.

I am reminded of a physical exam I had with my physician when I was in my late 30's where he told me I should take a daily low aspirin as a preventive measure against a heart attack or stroke. He told me I was at the age where I should start that regimen and continue it for the rest of my life.

This is advice that has been generally given for decades. It was SCIENCE.

Until now.

It seems that it has now been decided that the risks of the intervention outweigh any benefits.

It only took them 40 years to reach that conclusion.

Why would there be any reason to have any questions or concerns about a new vaccine, using new technology, that was authorized for emergency use faster than any drug or vaccine in history?

When Reality Becomes Too Real

I am by nature an optimistic person.

I believe the glass is half full.

I prefer to believe the best in people.

I like to think that things will work out for the best.

This makes me a person with good mental health according to most psychiatrists.

Interestingly, some studies have shown that people who are most attuned to reality are more likely to exhibit signs of depression and mental disease.

This theory is called "depressive realism".

Feeling blue? Strangely, it might mean that you're actually better at judging your performance—and reality in general—than when you're not.

It's called "depressive realism," and it seems to suggest that in our normal state, we tend to operate under happy delusions that lift away when we're depressed. The idea blows apart the theory that depressed people have too negative an outlook on the world: They may actually just be seeing it how it is.

When I first saw this psychiatric research a number of years ago it made sense when I thought about it.

God had to have designed us this way or it would be very difficult for any human progress to be made. It would be too easy to quit when the going got tough. And it will always get tough at some point.

The natural state has to be that we view ourselves and the world with rose-colored glasses. It helps move us forward even when reality might suggest otherwise. Hope and optimism is the fuel of purpose and progress in mankind.

A group, team or a society cannot last long if more than a few start saying things like,

What is the point?

Why bother?

It is hopeless.

Reality bites. 

It really does at times.

I guess real danger is upon us when more and more people start noticing the reality and begin losing that natural state of happy delusion.

We are clearly in a dangerous period of reality right now.

No matter how strong your natural state of optimism is, it has to be under some stress right now.

The increase in suicide attempts since the pandemic began is alarming, particularly among adolescents. 

Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-06-11/cdc-study-documents-rise-in-adolescent-suicide-attempts-during-pandemic

Emergency room visits for suspected suicide attempts rose in adolescents – particularly among girls – during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a study published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday.

"Compared with the rate during the corresponding period in 2019, the rate of [emergency department] visits for suspected suicide attempts was 2.4 times as high during spring 2020, 1.7 times as high during summer 2020, and 2.1 times as high during winter 2021," the study said. "This increase was driven largely by suspected suicide attempt visits among females."

Young people do not have as much perspective as those who are more chronologically advantaged.

They have not experienced as many ups and downs in life. In particular, the DOWNS.

Therefore, what we are dealing with now is much harder for them to deal with than with older people.  To them, it seems like this will never end. It feels like it is hopeless. It is difficult to get past the reality of the moment.

As a result, our young, especially, those in the 15-44 age group, need the most support right now.

They are in the midst of the most social period of their lives.

It has been taken away from them.

You might be surprised to learn that it is in these age groups that we have seen the most excess deaths (in % terms) between 2019 and 2020. We are seeing the same trends in 2021.

These deaths have not been from Covid. 

They have been from causes other than Covid.

Excess deaths in 2020 for the age 15-44 age groups were up over 20% compared to pre-pandemic levels after subtracting out Covid deaths

Source: https://twitter.com/COVIDData3/status/1435268935063064576/photo/1

A close up of the last three columns of the chart above.

Have these excess deaths been suicides, drug overdoses, accidents or something we don't understand?

The CDC has not published the granular data yet.

We know that suicide attempts are up in the last 18 months based on CDC data.

We know that drug overdose deaths are up as well.

Source: https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1433474227475128328/photo/1

The fact that this trend in excess deaths in the 15-44 age group occurred coincident with the beginning of the pandemic seems to suggest that the lockdowns, masks, social distancing and other measures that have been employed in our response has damaged the natural state of optimism in these ages

Did reality become so REAL that it became harder and harder for some to maintain their belief in the delusion that all is good and everything will end well?

What is the point?

Why bother?

It is hopeless.

It is also interesting that it is in the 16-49 age groups that the incidence of confirmed Covid cases have been highest relative to their share of the population. This seems to follow in that it is this group that is generally going to be socializing or the most exposed to the virus in their work.

They make up about 45% of the U.S. population but 56% of the cases have been in these age groups.

Conversely, the age 65+ population which makes up 16.5% of the population has had only 12.7% of the Covid cases.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

However, 78% of the deaths are coming from those age 65+ who make up just 12.7% of the cases!

Less than 6% of all Covid deaths are in the 16-49 age group though they account for 56% of all cases.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

The deaths we are seeing in this group are not from Covid but other causes.

We also see a similar trend of excess deaths in Europe comparing 2019, 2020 and 2021 for those in the 15-44 age demographic.

Excess deaths in 2021 are actually running higher this year than in 2020.

Source: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country

It is interesting that, just as in the United States, excess deaths in the 0-14 age category have been running below average since the pandemic started.

Source: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country

Why then are we so eager to vaccinate children where the benefits are lowest and the risks are highest due to their age?

Deaths in the age 0-14 age groups are actually LOWER now than they were before the pandemic started.

It is particularly interesting to see the difference in changes in the death rate comparing the United States with Sweden between 2019 and 2020 in the 15-64 age groups.

Source: https://twitter.com/SkyeZlatan/status/1395625809415753728/photo/1

Sweden had an almost imperceptible increase in deaths for the younger age groups.

Sweden supposedly did it wrong by not locking down, not closing schools and not mandating masks.

Compare that to the United States which did all of those. We also know that most of the excess deaths in these age groups in the U.S. (less than 10%) were not from Covid (see above chart).

Sweden's Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said in July, 2020 that the race we were in with Covid-19 was a marathon rather than a sprint as he was being criticized for risking the lives of Swedes with his no lockdown, no masks, no school closings and no travel restriction policies.

He famously said at that time, "Judge me in a year."

Do you see which country is at the bottom of this chart of excess mortality of major countries this year?

 All of them went in a different direction than Sweden did last year.

Sweden has had no excess deaths for most of 2021. Compare that to the United States, UK, Denmark, Japan and even lockdown happy Australia.

When did you ever hear Dr. Fauci say "judge me in a year'?

If he had, the judgment would have been harsh.

I don't think Fauci wants reality to become that real. Where Sweden is right now might even cause Fauci to feel a little depressed.

In the meantime, the reality of many young people has been made far too real by his advice. 

Hug one today and tell them this too shall end and with it should come some powerful lessons they should take with them for the rest of their lives.

As I said at the outset, I see the glass half full. All of what we have gone through has to work out for the best in the end.

If not, what is the point?

Bad News for Biden

The big news on the economic front last week was the dismal jobs report in the United States that came out on Friday.

Expectations were that we would see around 500,000 net new jobs created.

The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payroll jobs increased by just 194,000 for the month.

What makes this all the more disappointing is it comes as the additional federal unemployment payment of $300 per month ended early in the month.

You can get a better perspective of how U.S. jobs growth has trended since the beginning of 2020 in this chart.

The Biden administration is blaming the poor job numbers and Biden's sinking poll numbers on Covid and the 20% of Americans who are not vaccinated.

A Quinnipiac poll released last week showed that Biden's approval rating had dropped to 38% and it is filled with bad news for Biden.

Among Independents, only 32% approved of Biden's job performance. 60% disapproved.

94% of Republicans disapprove of Biden's performance. On the other hand, Biden is only drawing 80% approval from Democrats.

Here are the full numbers on a range of demographic groups.

Source: https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3824

Two numbers that jumped out at me in these poll numbers were the fact that 69% of white non-college voters and 51% of Hispanics disapproved of Biden's job performance.

At one time you would have thought it would be impossible for a Democrat to poll this low with these groups.

If you look at specific policy issues you can see that Joe Biden is not just having trouble with his handling of the economy in the eyes of the voters.

He is below 50% on every issue polled.

Source: https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3824

In July, when Biden had a Real Clear Politics poll average of in the low 50's, and a net approval score of +10 points, I wrote that it would not surprise me if Biden soon starting sinking fast in the polls.

At that time, Biden was already receiving negative marks on issues such as the border, immigration, crime and gun violence.

However, he had majority support on Covid, the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the economy.

I predicted at that time that I believed there were clouds on the horizon with all three issues that should concern Biden's advisers. If these issues turned against Biden his poll numbers would fall fast.

This is what I wrote in July in "Sinking Fast?".

Storm clouds are already gathering on the horizon that could result in Biden's approval rating sinking fast.

Biden has a 63% approval for his handling of the Covid response. Cases are rising and there is increasing talk of reimposed mandates, booster shots and other measures. What happens to that approval number if cases numbers continue to rise?

55% approve of his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal. The Taliban is already capturing large swaths of the country. What if Afghanistan is overtaken by turmoil and terrorists?

53% feel positive about the economic recovery. However, inflation risk seems to be everywhere. Biden and his advisors are saying this is temporary. What if it is not?

Little did I know how correct I would be.

We all know about the disastrous manner that Biden handled the troop withdrawal in Afghanistan.

Cases and deaths have surged from Covid despite Biden's claims during the campaign that he was going to shutdown the virus rather than the economy.

Despite all of his talk, and the fact that almost 80% of the age 18+ population has been vaccinated, Covid deaths under Biden now exceed deaths that occurred while Trump was President.

Source: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/oct/8/more-americans-have-died-covid-under-biden-trump-j/

This fact probably surprises a lot of people since the media is not highlighting the death count every day as it did when it wanted to push Trump out of office.

Desperate people do desperate things.

This explains why Biden is mandating vaccines, pushing boosters and soon will be telling every parent to vaccinate their children.

Biden told us he would follow the science.

He is doing anything but following the science. He and his advisers are only concerned about one thing with their Covid "strategy'---POLITICS.

80% are vaccinated, cases and deaths are up and the answer is to mandate even more to be vaccinated?

In what universe does this make sense if someone laid out this scenario a year ago?

Of course, notice who the vaccine mandates apply to. 

Don't you think if this was really about the science it wouldn't apply to just those who were working. It would also apply to those on welfare benefits and food stamps as well? Wouldn't it also make sense for it to apply to anyone entering the country's southern border illegally?

The FDA advisory panel voted 16-2 that boosters should only be administered to those over age 65 and those who were immunocompromised. The FDA and CDC ignored the advisory panel (and science) and authorized the boosters for anyone at "significant risk" which includes all health workers, educators and those in essential services. The reality is that anyone can walk in and get a booster shot. No one is going to turn anybody away. After all, who is not at risk of infection right now?

We are soon going to start vaccinating children as young as 5 year of age? Never mind that there have only been 221 deaths of children between the ages of 1 and 14 ( no one has suggested vaccinating anyone under age 1 (YET) since the beginning of the pandemic.

That is in a population of 57.5 million children in that age group in the United States. 

Source: https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1446202920106668034/photo/1

The mortality risk for children 14 and younger with Covid since the beginning of the pandemic? 

.000005554

The mortality risk for all other causes?

.000785582. That is 141 times higher if you do the math.

At the same time, three Nordic countries have suspended use of the Moderna vaccines in young people due to concerns about potential heart inflammation from the vaccine. "Young" as under age 30 in Sweden and Norway.

Source: https://www.wymt.com/2021/10/07/some-european-countries-suspend-moderna-shots-those-30-under/?outputType=apps

Sweden suspended the use of Moderna for those recipients under 30, Denmark said those under 18 won’t be offered the Swiss-made vaccine, and Norway urged those under 30 to get the Pfizer vaccine instead.

Is the science different in Sweden and Norway than in the United States?

Why would the Pfizer vaccine be any different? It uses the same mRNA technology.

If you doubt politics is not involved consider as well the revelation that Governor Gavin Newsom's 12-year old daughter has yet to be vaccinated against Covid despite the fact that the Democrat Governor of California has already issued an executive order that all K-12 school children in the state have to receive the Covid vaccine to attend school as soon as it is approved.

Newsom stated that his daughter had a series of other shots to get as the reason she had not yet gotten the Covid vaccine.

The CDC guidelines does not recommend any vaccines other than an annual flu shot for those between ages 7 and 11.

At ages 11-12 the CDC recommends the following for pre-teens.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/hpv/parents/about-hpv.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fhpv%2Fparents%2Fwhatishpv.html

Newsom is saying that he believes that his 12-year daughter has more risk in contracting a sexually transmitted disease (HPV) or meningitis and it is more important for her to get a Tdap booster or a flu shot compared to the Covid vaccine that he has deemed so important that he has mandated it for every child in his state?

What more do you need to know about the politics of this?

You get a better understanding of why Biden is doing what he is doing when you see what has transpired in Florida.

According to Biden and the media, Governor Ron DeSantis has done everything wrong in that state. He has opposed lockdowns, school closures, mask mandates, vaccine mandates and everything else. He has also promoted vaccine availability as well as early Covid treatment.

Two months ago we were told Florida was going to be in a crisis mode by now. Schools with no masking and no vaccine mandates in the state would lead to a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions.

Have you noticed you haven't heard much about Florida lately?

Daily cases in Florida have fallen by 94% since mid-August with no mandates or heavy-handed interventions.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/florida-covid-cases.html

Hospitalizations are down 77%.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/florida-covid-cases.html

I should point out that why others were predicting disaster in Florida as they were about to open their maskless schools and DeSantis was saying "NO' to all mandates,  I wrote on August 1 that I expected Florida's case and hospital counts to peak and turn down in the near future. I made this prediction by looking at previous patterns of Covid waves in other countries. 

There seems to be a pattern with Covid in which cases surge for 45 days when a major outbreak begins until it turns down.

You can observe this pattern in the UK in the wave last Winter as well as the recent so-called Delta variant wave.

You can see the same pattern in India where the Delta variant is reported to have originated.

Experts have no real answers on what happened in either instance.

Let's look at Florida which is having the highest number of cases reported in the United States right now.

Cases were running at the lowest levels since the pandemic began in the week of June 15-June 22 when cases started an upsurge.

This would suggest Florida is very close to the peak if the UK and India patterns hold. We should start to see decreasing cases in Florida soon irrespective of government interventions if the prior pattern repeats itself.

As I predicted, the peak in Florida was reached two weeks later and has now fallen without respect to policy interventions.

Florida and many other places have shown the ebbs and flows of the virus despite our interventions.

The virus has proven it will do its thing despite most everything we have tried to do to combat it. The pandemic will end at some point just as all other pandemics in human history have.

What is weird about Covid is that almost all other pandemics have run their course in 18 months or less. Why has this pandemic gone on longer? Have our interventions actually extended the time frame? Who knows?

There is one thing I do know.

Biden has made a simple political calculation that it is better for him politically (most particularly with his base voters) to do something than do nothing. Biden is making a political bet that cases are going to fall at some point nationally just like they have in Florida. He can then claim that his mandates worked even if they have no effect. Who is going to be able to dispute it in the end?

He also has the advantage of effectively rolling over the unvaccinated minority because it is always easy for a majority to trample on the rights of a minority. That is the primary reason our Founders adopted a  republican form of government in our Constitution and included a Bill of Rights. Very few seem to be thinking about that these days.

Our Founders knew that democratically reached decisions might reflect the the will of the people at a given moment but could very well be unwise when viewed from longer term perspectives. It is too easy for democratic decisions to be wrong, unjust, impractical or to trample on individual and minority rights. For that reason, our Constitution did everything it could to safeguard against strict democratic majority rule.

Biden's political calculation is that he can get away with his authoritarian vaccine mandates because a substantial majority (78% of age 18+) have already taken the jabs. For those who have taken the vaccine, the Rubicon has been crossed. There is no retreat. They are in the boat and there is no going back. Most are going to believe that everyone should be in the same boat with them. Biden is counting on the majority to not consider the broader issue of individual choice and rights. (Hat tip to Sundance at The Last Refuge for this general insight on the attitudes of those vaccinated).

He may get away with it. The stakes are pretty high when you are threatening people with their jobs and livelihoods.

We will see how it unfolds over the next several weeks. Health care workers and educators seem to have rolled over and complied. This is not a big surprise because these groups are generally liberal and are not independent-minded. Those in the military know the consequences of not following orders.

I am more interested in seeing what we see with the police and firefighters and the signals we saw this weekend in the airline industry (specifically Southwest Airlines) that may involve pushback against the vaccine mandates.

Truck drivers are another group that could cause massive problems if they organize and push back against the mandates. If the truckers park their trucks and stop deliveries our economy and our lives are going to be disrupted in a huge way.

The latter groups I have mentioned are much more independent-minded and are likely to not be as willing to see individual rights and freedoms eroded.

Biden is making a big bet that is hard to understand. He's got almost 80% vaccinated. I just don't see the next 5% uptake having that much effect compared to the potential disruption and division he is creating.

If the current vaccines don't work with 80% they are not going to get the job done with 85% or 90%. We are going to know one way of the other in six months whether they work or not. That is science. Either the vaccines stops the pandemic or the virus burned out on its own. If we are in the same place today in six months, I think it is pretty clear that the vaccines had no effect or they actually made the problem worse.

That is why this is not a move based on science but on politics.

Even if what comes next with Covid is not more bad news for Biden, we will have witnessed a episode that will be a low point for individual freedom and minority rights in the United States of America.

That is something I am confident of.

It is hard to imagine that history is going to look kindly at what was done during this time.

If that is not the case, that will be very, very BAD news about what the future of individual rights and freedom will be in the United States of America.

Irreconcilable Differences

We are living in an era in the United States where the people are more philosophically divided than any other time period than right before the Civil War.

I lived in a similar period of division during the Vietnam War in the late 1960's and 1970's which was a tumultuous time for the nation.

However, unlike those periods in which slavery or the Vietnam War was a single issue that caused deep division, we find ourselves deeply divided among a range of fundamental issues.

Consider just a few.

Abortion

Immigration policy

Capitalism vs. Socialism

Climate Change

Expansion of The Welfare State

Voting Access vs. Voting Security

States Rights vs. Federal Power

Second Amendment and Gun Rights

Critical Race Theory

Covid Policy (Mandates, Lockdowns etc.)

Law and Order

These are not issues that there are just small differences of opinion. 

These are issues in which there is literally a 180 degree difference in views.

Many don't see any shades of gray in any of the issues.

The views are not only discordant but they are causing increasing rancor and resentment between those with the competing views.

If it was a marriage both parties would seek dissolution on the grounds of irreconcilable differences.

Therefore, it should come as no surprise that we are hearing more talk about secession or splitting geographic areas to more accurately reflect the philosophical views of the population.

Seven rural Oregon counties have already voted to petition their state legislature to let them secede from Oregon and become part of Idaho. Advocates of the idea are attempting to get another eight Oregon counties to vote on the measure. Several northern California counties are also interested in the idea.

Their vision is secession from liberal Oregon and California and a merger with Idaho to become the renamed state of Greater Idaho with a capital in Boise.

The vision of a Greater Idaho state
Source: https://michaelsavage.com/eastern-oregon-residents-consider-joining-idaho-amid-portland-protests/

This USA Today article provides some background on the issue. 

Mike McCarter, who serves as president of Citizens of Greater Idaho, said the movement wants fair political representation, and that’s more likely found in Boise than Salem.

“It has been talked about for many years how eastern Oregon and southern Oregon are more like Idaho than they are to northwest Oregon,” McCarter said. “Their lifestyles, their attachment to their lands – those traditional values of people who live out in space, in open lands, feel that they’re more aligned with the people in Idaho.”

The organizers face an uphill battle as such a plan would require the approval of the Oregon and Idaho legislatures as well the U.S. Congress. For starters, it is difficult to see why the Oregon legislature would voluntarily give up territory, population (and power).

Others have a bigger vision of matching geography, borders and political philosophies.

They see a United States of America and a United States of Canada that might look like this.

Source: https://twitter.com/TrumpJew2/status/1445149100211585030/photo/1

In case you think all of this is far-fetched, a recent YouGov.com and BrightlineWatch poll asked voters in different regions of the country if they would support having their state secede from the United States and join a new union of various states in their region.

37% of all respondents overall indicated they were interested in the secession idea.

Here are the results by region and by political affiliation.

Source: https://brightlinewatch.org/still-miles-apart-americans-and-the-state-of-u-s-democracy-half-a-year-into-the-biden-presidency/

 

Note that 2/3 of Republican voters in the South say secession is not out of the question.

Likewise nearly 1/2 of Democrats in the Pacific region feel the same way.

To think that Americans would consider their state seceding from the United States would have been unthinkable 20-30 years ago.

It no longer seems to be.

One real life example where secession may actually become reality is in Atlanta where a group has organized to take steps to have the Buckhead area of that city secede from Atlanta and establish its own city government.

Buckhead is the area in Atlanta which has always been the "cool" place to live, work, shop and play.

When I was attending law school at Emory University in Atlanta, Buckhead was the place where most of my classmates hoped to live one day in a house off of West Paces Ferry Road.

It is the place to buy your Mercedes Benz, shop at Saks or meet out of town friends at the Ritz Carlton hotel.

This is how one Atlanta realtor describes Buckhead.

Upscale and sophisticated, Buckhead offers a wide variety of homes for sale from luxurious estate homes with lush green lawns and rolling hills to charming bungalows as well as sleek, modern high-rise condominiums and townhomes. Buckhead is also an entertainment and shopping mecca, including Buckhead Village, Lenox Square Mall and Phipps Plaza. The location can’t be beat!

Buckhead is a community, comprising several neighborhoods, forming roughly the northern one-fifth of Atlanta and is inside the perimeter. Buckhead is one of Atlanta’s most important business districts, and includes Atlanta’s wealthiest neighborhoods.

Over the last two years the Buckhead area has seen crime rates soar while the Atlanta mayor and city council have handcuffed the police from doing their jobs to attempt to satisfy the "Defund the Police" crowd. Frustrated by lack of support from the city's politicians, hundreds of police officers have resigned or retired.

Even worse, some of Atlanta's politicians (yes, they are all Democrats) have used Buckhead to advance their class war playbook. 

Tucker Carlson did a segment on Atlanta and Buckhead in June where he said this about the surging crime in the area and the movement to potentially secede.

Fewer than 80,000 people live there, but it’s fair to say that, without Buckhead, Atlanta, at least as it’s currently run, could not exist. Taxes from Buckhead residents account for fully a fifth of Atlanta’s entire city budget. You’d think the people who run the city would be very polite to Buckhead. They certainly should be. But the opposite is true. For decades, various mayors of Atlanta have attacked Buckhead, as if there’s something offensive or immoral about maintaining a clean and orderly neighborhood. For the most part, the residents of Buckhead have taken this abuse in silence. Complaining seemed impolite. So they’ve continued to send huge amounts of money to a city government that hates them. For politicians in Atlanta, it’s been a very good deal—attack Buckhead and take the dough. But that deal could soon be ending.  

Buckhead City Committee CEO Bill White has said he and his neighbors “are living in a war zone.”

He is spearheading the drive for Buckhead to secede from Atlanta.

“What has happened here in the last several years is an incredibly dangerous spike in crime and a complete vacuum of leadership. The police in Atlanta are great policemen and women. We love them. They just want to do their job. They are not being allowed to do that. This is a very diverse community. We, in fact, are the most diverse community in all of Atlanta. We have decided to file for divorce, and the divorce is final,” White said.

“What we are saying to the city of Atlanta is we are going to form our own city. We have two bills in the state legislature. We have raised the requisite amount of money we need right now to move this forward. There will be a ballot initiative on the ballot next November, and we are going to take our city back for the great families of Buckhead once and for all.”

White said a separate Buckhead police force “will put the smackdown on crime once and for all.”

The Georgia General Assembly is convening a special session in November for hearings and a possible vote on legislation which would allow for the people of Buckhead to decide whether they want to secede from Atlanta and establish their own city.

A July poll of Buckhead voters indicated that 61% would like to vote on the issue. 

A recent feasibility study concluded that the city of Atlanta would lose over $200 million in tax revenues if Buckhead seceded. Buckhead could provide better police, fire and other services to its residents at a cost of less than $90 million per year according to the study.

The city of Atlanta may have neglected and demonized the "rich people" up in Buckhead a little too long and pushed them a little too far. The end result may blow a gigantic hole in the city of Atlanta's budget.

The emotional costs of divorce are high but the financial costs of divorce should not be understated.

Irreconcilable differences almost always means higher financial costs on everyone involved in a divorce.

There are substantial economic advantages in being married. Two cannot live as cheaply as one but they can live more cost effectively than two singles. That is an economic fact.

The city of Atlanta may have to face the economic reality of a divorce caused by secession unless the leaders decide soon that it is best to not bite the hand that feeds you.

That might also be a lesson that the Democrats in Washington might want to consider.

Secession is a repugnant idea. It indicates that people have lost faith in their government as well as their fellow man. 

Abraham Lincoln believed that strongly and fought a war that was every bit about a fight against the concept of secession as a remedy as it was about abolishing slavery.

We can only pray that it will not take secession or a civil war to bring people to their senses.

Who Is Misleading Who?

We live in a world in which media and social media companies are censoring what they call "misleading information."

For example, last week YouTube removed any videos that were critical of any vaccines--not just the Covid jab.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/oct/14/youtube-bans-misinformation-about-covid-vaccinations

YouTube had banned any negative videos about the Covid vaccines in October of last year. Interestingly, this was before the vaccines had been authorized. At that point how did they know any negative views were "misinformation"?

We seem to have reached a point that anyone who says anything that does not conform to the narrative is said to be providing "misleading information" and is subject to censorship.

Alex Berenson is a former New York Times who covered the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries for the paper while he was there.

He gained an enormous number of followers on Twitter during the pandemic for his reporting on Covid that did not conform to the narrative. He was suspended for short periods of time over the last year by Twitter that claimed he was spreading "misinformation".

Berenson was permanently suspended by Twitter in late August for this tweet which was judged to be "misleading".

What did Berenson state in that Tweet that is not supported by the facts and data?

It is very clear now that the Covid vaccines don't stop infection or transmission.

Compare cases in the summer of 2021 with over 70% of age 18+ vaccinated with the summer of 2020 when no one was vaccinated.

This chart is through August, 2021 when Benenson published his tweet.

Can it be said that these vaccines are stopping infections and transmissions in looking at this case surge?

What about the side effects reported through VAERS of these vaccines compared to the reported side effects of ALL other vaccines that have been administered in the United States for the last decade?

More troubling is this chart of CDC data on overall and Covid deaths comparing August, 2020 vs. August 2021.

Source: https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1444406242315837440/photo/1

How could we have almost 50% more deaths from Covid this August compared to last August if the vaccines are working even as a therapeutic?

Of course, the narrative is that this year we are in "pandemic of the unvaccinated".

We heard repeatedly that 99% of hospitalizations and deaths from Covid this summer were from those who were unvaccinated.

Dr. Fauci repeated this over and over this summer.

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/07/04/more-than-99-us-covid-deaths-involve-unvaccinated-people/7856564002/

The CDC Director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, was also saying in July that if you are fully vaccinated you are protected against severe Covid and death and even protected against Delta and other variants.

At the same time, Fauci was telling us that there was no need for booster shots.

What I find particularly troubling is that at the time that Fauci and Walensky were making these statements the CDC had data indicating that as far back as May 15% of all deaths from Covid were in those who had been fully vaccinated.

This was a chart that was leaked to the The Washington Post in early August that I cited in a blog post at that time. It was part of a confidential internal presentation at CDC in considering the question of whether Covid vaccine booster shots were going to be necessary.

It shows that 15% of deaths in May were from those who were fully vaccinated.

Source: https://humanevents.com/2021/07/30/breaking-leaked-cdc-slides-call-for-universal-masks-reinstating-mitigation-strategies-vaccine-mandates-for-hcp-to-stop-delta-variant/

This is what I wrote in that blog post in early August titled "Should I Be Concerned?".

Should you be concerned if you took the vaccine?

I think there is actually a bigger concern for all of us.

I believe the biggest concern is whether you can trust the information you are getting from the CDC, the Biden administration and the political class about Covid and the vaccines.

Have they given you trustworthy information in the past? Can you rely on it to make future decisions?

Are they actually trying to mislead us in order to manage the narrative they have created?

These are questions everyone should be asking.

That is where I believe our greatest concerns should be.

Who is misleading who?

Since August I have come across more data that puts the narrative into even more doubt.

Humetrix is a real-time analytics data platform used to monitor and analyze health care outcomes among 5.6 million Medicare beneficiaries.

The Department of Defense and the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center recently sponsored a study (Project Salus) to assess the effectiveness of the Covid vaccines against the Delta variant among the 5.6 Medicare beneficiaries in the Humetrix database..

Some of the information in this study was shared at the FDA meeting to determine whether Covid boosters should be recommended for this age cohort.

This is the title slide of the slide presentation. 

Source: https://www.humetrix.com/powerpoint-vaccine.html

What I found most interesting in the Humetrix data is that it found that 71% of all hospitalizations  in the age 65+ cohort recently are among those fully vaccinated.

In fact, if you look closely at the data, more than 50% of the hospitalizations since April in the age 65+ cohort have been fully vaccinated.

Does this not suggest that the claim that almost all of the deaths and severe illness from Covid were from the unvaccinated was a very misleading claim by Fauci, Walensky and the others?

To be clear, I am not suggesting that this shows that the vaccines are not offering some protective benefits to the vaccinated.

The fact that 80%+ of the age 65+ cohort is fully vaccinated but 71% of the hospitalized are fully vaccinated shows that there is likely a benefit to the vaccine for this age group.

This seems to also be true in the data I have seen from Israel and the UK that have better national reporting systems and have been more transparent in releasing their data than in the United States.

The Salus study did conclude that hospitalization and death rates were both reduced in the vaccinated age 65+ cohort compared to the pre-vaccination periods. However, the study still found that 21% (down from 31%) of breakthrough cases in the fully vaccinated age 65+ cohort were hospitalized and there was a 4% death rate in the fully vaccinated (down from 12% previously).

Another interesting slide in the Salus study was this one which showed the relative risk factors for hospitalization of breakthrough Covid infections in the fully vaccinated.

Who are those at greatest risk of a breakthrough infection that will result in hospitalization among the fully vaccinated?

Those with End Stage Renal Disease, those hospitalized more than once previously, Native Americans and those who are morbidly obese.

Who are those at least risk of a breakthrough infection?

Is it any surprise that the lowest risk is those who had a prior case of Covid-19 and had acquired natural immunity?

However, Dr. Fauci and the experts continue to deny any benefits and protection from natural immunity that might have been conveyed by prior infection.

Fauci was recently asked the question about natural immunity on CNN by its medical expert Dr. Sanjay Gupta.

Fauci, who is President Joe Biden's chief medical adviser, was asked on Friday by CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta whether people who have tested positive for the virus should still get a shot. He cited data from Israel in August suggesting people who recovered from COVID-19 had a lower risk of contracting the delta variant than those who got a full Pfizer vaccine.

"I don't have a really firm answer for you on that. That's something that we're going to have to discuss regarding the durability of the response," Fauci said.

 

We are 18 months into this pandemic and the guy who is supposedly the top expert on the subject does not have an answer to that fundamental question? 

However, in May he stated that the vaccines were "proving to be extremely effective, and may provide long-lasting protection".

Who is misleading who?

This Humetrix data, consistent with other studies, also shows almost a direct correlation between age and the risks of hospitalization even when considering breakthrough infections.

Those over age 85 had a much higher risk of hospitalization than those ages 75-84 and the 75-84 age group had a step up in risk compared to other Medicare beneficiaries between the ages of 65-74.

Another area of the narrative that looks to me to be clearly misleading involves the manner in which the "approval" of the Pfizer vaccine is being portrayed.

It is important to remember that it would have been completely unethical to argue for a vaccine mandate without FDA approval.

The Moderna and J&J vaccines are still only available under an "Emergency Use Authorization" but this distinction seems to have been purposely lost in the push for vaccine mandates.

More troubling is the fact that the FDA approval only applies to the Pfizer vaccine manufactured and distributed under the brand name Comirnaty.

However, that vaccine is not even available in the United States right now!

The only Pfizer vaccine being offered is the EUA version.

Why was the Comirnaty brand version approved but the product being pushed for people under the vaccine mandate in the United States is limited to the EUA version?

What is going on?

It is a bait and switch according to Senator Johnson.

SEN. RON JOHNSON: We do not have an FDA-approved vaccine being administered in the U.S. The FDA played a bait and switch. They approved the Comirnaty version of Pfizer drugs. It’s not available in the U.S. They even admit it. I sent them a letter three days later going "What are you doing?" What they did is they extended the emergency use authorization for the Pfizer drug vaccine that’s available in the U.S., here that’s more than 30 days later, they haven’t asked that very simple question. If you’re saying that the Pfizer drug is the same as the Comirnaty, why didn’t you provide FDA approval on that? So, there’s not an FDA-approved drug and, of course, they announced it so they could push through these mandates so that people actually think, "Oh, OK now these things are FDA approved." They are not and again, maybe they should be, but the FDA isn’t telling me why. 

Who is misleading who?

From the beginning of the pandemic I have consistently gone where the facts took me.

It did not take me long to see that the facts often did not match the narrative.

The problem is that most people have never been exposed to the facts.

They have only heard the narrative.

The narrative drives public policy.

It also drives most public opinion.

We are taught from a young age to trust authority and follow the instructions that the authorities give us (Parents, Teachers, Police, Bosses etc).

We naturally assume they have our best interests at heart.

Therefore, this recent poll from Fox News does not surprise me which shows that large majorities support vaccine and mask mandates.

To understand that poll you also have to see the results of this Gallup survey which recently asked people to estimate what percentage of unvaccinated people who are infected with Covid will need to be hospitalized.

The correct answer is less than 1%.

However, the most common answer was 50% or higher!

Source: https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/354938/adults-estimates-covid-hospitalization-risk.aspx

In particular, note how far removed the views of Democrats are from the actual facts.

41% of Democrats believe that more than half of those infected with Covid are going to need to be hospitalized. 26% of Independents and 22% of Republicans also believe that.

Only 2% of Democrats know the actual facts compared to 16% of Republican voters. However, the narrative is that those Republican voters are ignorant, no-nothings when it comes to Covid.

Is it any wonder that we are getting the policies we are and there is not more pushback to the unprecedented violation of individual liberties that are being implemented?

Who is misleading who?

What do the facts say?

Unfortunately, right now those who are the on the pathway trying to find and analyze the facts are on a lonely and unforgiving journey.

I don't know what the facts will reveal in their totality when this journey ends.

It is also beyond me to understand why there is such a concerted effort to mislead the people and to censor those who are merely pointing out facts that run counter to the narrative.

However, if the accepted facts in the end do not support the narrative we have been told, we will have done irreparable harm to our trust in our authorities and institutions that will last for years.

I can hope they know what they are doing.

Every indication is they do not.