Wednesday, June 12, 2024

The People vs.The Politicians

Politicians have a lot of power to control our lives.

They can legislate, mandate and tax us in countless ways.

However, in free countries where voters have the power to elect their representatives, politicians do not have the ultimate power. That power belongs to the people.

The United States became the model for representative democracy when the U.S. Constitution was first written in 1787.

Many countries have adopted the principle in some form since that time. Prior to that, people were almost always governed by monarchs or dictators where they had not power.

It was a controversial idea when it was first introduced by our Founders. The power that the people can wield in any type of democracy is particularly threatening to the elites at the top of the power structure.

We often hear the complaint that our government is not responsive to the will of the people.

I understand why that is said. 

However, if there is a disconnect the responsibility rests more on the people than the politicians.

The people are sovereign in our system. Their power is absolute.  Unfortunately, too many people don't believe it. The simple fact is that politicians have no power unless the people provide it.

A politician is NOTHING unless they are elected. They only have power if they hold office. They cannot hold office unless they get more votes than their opponent.

Therefore, a politician is ALWAYS going to be focused primarily on gaining (or retaining) that power.

Laws that do not have public backing do not survive over the long term. Lawmakers who make laws that people do not support do not stay in office very long. Politicians who do not do the will of the people soon need to find other employment.

This seems to be lost on too many people who complain that they have no influence or power in the affairs of state. It may seem that way when you are just one vote. However, those votes add up quickly.

The reality is that the people too often lack the organization and voice to wield their power effectively.

Too many people do not raise their voices and those that do are disorganized.

However, when the people do raise their voices through their votes it can be terrifying to the politicians in power.

Consider the reactions of some politicians to the European Parliament elections over the weekend that saw conservative parties score gains in the election.

Ruling parties in France, Germany, Spain, Austria and Belgium all saw defeats. As a result, France’s President Macron dissolved parliament and has called for new elections to see if he can continue. Belgium's Prime Minister resigned.

Raphael Glucksman has been representing France in the European Parliament as a member of the socialist Green Party which lost seats in the election.

He sees the voters in Europe as "shaking our democracy"?



What? 

How can voters shake democracy when these people are the power behind the democracy?

The only thing the voters shook were the politicians.

A similar refrain was heard from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after the EU results.


Source: https://thepostmillennial.com/justin-trudeau-suggests-democratically-elected-right-wing-politicians-in-eu-elections-are-a-threat-to-democracy?utm_campaign=64466


We have arrived at the point that the people voting for the politicians and issues they care about is in itself "a threat to democracy"?

Where have we heard this before?

You can expect to hear a lot more about it between now and November.

You can also expect to hear a lot about the so-called "far right" as well.  Most of the stories about the EU elections refer to the group of parties who made gains in Europe as "far right".

How is it that people who want to protect their borders and culture, oppose rampant lawlessness, love their country, support free speech, question the woke agenda and are skeptical about a new world order are considered far right?

This is a great graphical representation of how the media and elites seem to view the political landscape these days

Credit: https://twitter.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1800671558027055340/photo/1


I dare say that what we are seeing is not a threat to democracy but a threat to the power of certain politicians who have their own agendas that do not conform to those of their constituents.

Why is Trudeau concerned about the results in the EU?

It might have something to do with where he currently stands with his own voters in Canada.

A recent poll shows that only 27% of Canadians are satisfied with Trudeau's government compared to 66% who are dissatisfied. That puts Trudeau in a worse spot in Canada than Biden is in the United States where just hit a record low 37% in the FiveThirtyEight poll average. 

2024 may be a year in which it is determined who really is in power.

Is it the people or the politicians?

Many voters in Europe sent a warning to their politicians this past week.

What about the United States, Canada and other countries?

However, never count out the politicians.

They have a lot to lose and you can be sure they will not go down without an enormous fight and a lot of gnashing of teeth. 

Power is never relinquished easily.

Monday, June 10, 2024

Uncharted Territory

June is Pride Month.

If you have somehow missed properly recognizing it this month don't worry.

There are plenty of other opportunities to recognize the LGBTQ+ community another time as I pointed out in a blog post in April after Joe Biden put out a proclamation recognizing March 31 as the Transgender Day of Visibility.

It seems that he somehow forgot to make a proclamation about Easter falling on the same day this year.

Month of March---Bisexual Health Awareness Month

March 1---Zero Discrimination Day

March 31---Transgender Day of Visibility

April 12---Day of Silence

April 13---International Day of Pink (Opposing Homophobia)

April 26---Lesbian Visibility Day

May 16---Honor Our LGBT Elders Day

May 19--International Day Against Homophobia, Biphobia and Transphobia

May 19---Agender Pride Day

May 22---Harvey Milk Day

Maty 24---Pansexual and Panromantic Awareness and Visibility Day

Month of June---Pride Month

June 28---Stonewall Riots Day

June 28---Gay Pride Day

July 6---Omnisexual Visibility Day

July 11-17---Bisexual Awareness Week

July 14---International Non-Binary Day

July 16---International Drag Day

August 14---Gay Uncles Day

September 15-21---Bisexual Awareness Week

September 23---Bisexual Visibility Day

Month of October---LBGT History Month

October 11---National Coming Out Day

October 17-24---Genderfluid Visibility Week

October 19---Spirit Day ((Support for LGBTQ+ Youth)

October 20---International Pronoun Day

October 20-26---Asexual Awareness Week

October 26---Asexual Awareness Day

Month of November---Trans Awareness Month

November 6---Trans Parent Day

November 8---Intersex Solidarity Day

November 13-19---Trans Awareness Week

November 20---Trans Day of Awareness 

December 1---International AIDS Day

December 8---Pansexual Pride Day

One person did a calculation on X that determined that there are 145 calendar days in the year devoted to celebrating LGBTQ+ in some way.

If you wonder how there can be so much attention and visibility given to LGBTQ+ issues these days look no further at what we see from our best and brightest at the nation's colleges and universities.

The best estimate is that about 7% of the U.S. adult population is LGBTQ+.

However, among Gen Z it is reported to be about 20%.

The percentages are even higher at a number of Ivy League schools.



However, at a number of liberal arts colleges the percentage of LGBTQ+ students is even higher.

At Oberlin it is 71%.

It is 69% at Smith and 68% at Wellesley.

This data is from a survey of students conducted by College Pulse/Fire to assess free speech at 254 college campuses in the United States.

Credit: https://twitter.com/data_depot/status/1798846038469673408


The lowest percentages of LGBTQ+ identifying students were at the following colleges.

Liberty University  7%

Hillsdale  9%

Dayton  11%

Credit: https://twitter.com/data_depot/status/1798846038469673408

When you see these numbers you also get a better understanding as to why the Gen Z generation puts such a low value on having children.



To say that we are in uncharted territory is an understatement.

Can the country survive if these attitudes persist?

That seems to a valid question considering the views above from the Z generation.

Can the human race survive?

It will but the survivors may primarily worship Allah.

Muslims put a high value on having children and on their religious beliefs.

Compare global fertility rates by religion.

This is a projection of what the change will be in world religions over the next 25 years by Pew Research.


Source: https://www.pewresearch.org


I am not sure that this projection by Pew took into account the shift in attitudes of the Gen Z generation in the United States and other countries on children.


Source:  https://www.pewresearch.org

Notice the number of Jews at the bottom of the charts.

If you think Antisemitism is bad today, we are heading further into uncharted territory there as well.

In the meantime, the LGBTQ+ students at these liberal colleges will presumably continue to support those who would deny them any rights based on their lifestyles. 

How do you square all of this? You can't. 

If these population trends continue they may find that Pride Month ends up being nothing more than a historical footnote.

Uncharted territory indeed.


Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Name Dropping

I cited a statistic recently in these pages that more than 40% of all newborn girls born in the United States have a name ending in "a".

In fact, 8 of the most popular 10 female names end with "a" and 6 of the first 7 for births recorded in 2023  do as well. Names such and Olivia, Emma, Amelia and Sophia.

Alexa was the the 32nd most popular name for a girl in 2015 . This was right about the same time that Amazon decided to name their voice assistant by the same name.

It led to a massive name drop. In 2023, Alexa ranked #604 in name popularity.

(All the names graphs below are from Namerology.com.)



Katrina is another name that has been dropping that ends with "a".

It was a fairly popular name in the 1980's reaching #101 in ranking. It began dropping in the 1990's with little chance for a comeback in the 2000's after Hurricane Katrina hit in 2004.

Katrina is now ranked #1872 in girls names.




Both are examples of how external events and news can affect the popularity of names.

The same is true with a few boys' names.

Did Walt Disney know what would the ramifications would be of his choice of the name of a cartoon character that was a duck? Of course, that name has not even seen a recovery despite (or perhaps because of) a President bearing that name.

#7 in the 1930's and #652 in 2023.



The same is true of the name Ronald after McDonald's first started using "Ronald McDonald" in its marketing.

Ronald was the #10 boys name in the 1940's, #15 in the 1950's, and #24 in the 1960's. 

It was #612 in 2023 barely ahead of Donald. That drop occurred despite another President who carried that name.




Perhaps we have reached a point that people have no interest in naming their children after any political figures.

For example, no one is naming their child Barack.

No one did it before Obama was President, while he was President or after he was President.



The name Hillary went out of favor right after the Clinton's became a household name.




However, when it comes to names, there is always another day,

Emma was the 2nd most popular baby name in 2023.

In the 1880's it was #3 until it dropped to #445 in the 1970's and recovered to became the #1 name in 2018.

I guess that 1970's parents did not want to name their baby girl Emma because that was the name of their grandmother's best friend. 

By the 2000's all of the old Emma's were gone and a new name trend began.



A similar name trend is seen with the name Henry. It was a top 10 name in the late 1800's. It was well out of the top 100 for the 1970's, 1980's and 1990's before making a comeback in the last 20 years. It has been a Top 10 name each of the last four years.




Theodore is a boys name that was a popular name in the early 20th century (Theodore Roosevelt) and has become a top 10 name recently. It was #7 in 2023.

You have to wonder whether "Theodore Cleaver" (or Beaver in the 1960's tv sitcom Leave It To Beaver) might have had something to that name drop though the decades?

The current generation knows little about Beaver so the name Theodore is not carrying the same baggage today that it did 40-50 years ago.

It is another example that names can drop and make a later comeback.


There used to be a lot more conformity in names than there is now. In 1950, only 5% of parents picked a name that was not in the Top 1000 baby names. In 2012, 27% of parents were completely weird and picked a name outside of the Top 1000.

In 2023, it was 29% overall. However, 35% of females born in 2023 were given a name outside the top 1000. For males it was 25%.

A big reason for the wider breadth of names is that technology and media have given exposure to many more names that parents are exposed to and can choose from.

In the 1800's many names came from the Bible. In the 1920's and 1930's movies opened up the name game and television started having an effect in the 1950's. Baby name books started appearing in the 60's and 70's for new parents to peruse.

The internet has totally changed the game in recent years with numerous web sites dedicated to baby names.

Of course, those names, once in circulation, begin to become more and more popular as the name is heard by more people. What begins as weird becomes cool with time. I first became aware of this baby name phenomenon when I read "Freakonomics" by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner who dedicated an entire chapter to names almost 20 years ago. Here is what they wrote about name patterns.

There is a clear pattern at play; once a name catches on among high-income, highly educated parents, it starts working its way down the socioeconomic ladder. 
It isn't famous people who drive the name game. It is the family just a few blocks over, the one with the bigger house and newer car. 
Parents are reluctant to poach a name from someone too near---family members or close friends---but many parents whether they realize it or not, like the sound of names that sound "successful". 
But as a high-end name is adopted en masse, high-end parents begin to abandon it. Eventually, it is considered so common that even lower-end parents many not want it, whereby it falls out of the rotation entirely. The lower-end parents, meanwhile, go looking for the next name that the upper-class parents have broken in.

That is how a new name can suddenly come on the scene and become popular.

For example, consider the girl's name Bayleigh.

The name did not appear in any birth records until the late 1970's.

All it took was one couple who named their daughter Bayleigh.

The name pattern ultimately put that name in the top 1000 by 2012.



Most likely that name was first used in Ohio as this map of the United States reveals that is where the name Bayleigh is most popular.

More people have been exposed to the name in that area of the country.



The most popular boy's name in 2023 was Liam.

Liam is originally an Irish name that was almost never given to an American baby until the early 1980's and then skyrocketed in popularity in the 2000's.

I find it interesting that the name was not used before considering the substantial number of Irish immigrants that came into the country beginning in the mid-1800's.

Perhaps the Irish immigrants did not want to be reminded of their hardships in Ireland before they immigrated to the United States?

Did it take Liam Neeson to raise visibility of the name for the non-Irish?


Which names are dropping the fastest in popularity today according to Namerology.com founder Laura Wattenberg?

The 2023 analysis has not been published but the 2022 list of biggest name droppers (in terms of popularity) were as follows.

Girl Name Droppers

Ava

Aviana

Boy Name Droppers

Lincoln

Logan

Three names that were not selected by one parent for their child in the United States in 2022 for the first time since the 1800's.

Jannie

Berta

Thurman

One final note.

There does appear to be hope on the horizon.

The name Bee is making a comeback. It was a name that was fairly popular around 1900 for both males and females.

The influence of BeeLine apparently is limitless.



Monday, June 3, 2024

Five Facts From May, 2024

BeeLine is rooted in facts and data. It is the foundation from which everything I write is based.

Five facts from BeeLine posts in May and in my research during the past month that I  thought were particularly salient, surprising, or stupefying.

In a world in which opinions seem to be based more on feelings, emotions and prevailing narratives it might make sense to put more focus on straightforward facts, data and truths. 

Consider these facts and data and consider the context they provide to the larger issues of our world today.


The Trump Trial

Donald Trump was convicted by a New York jury on a charge that he falsified business records in order to cover up an underlying crime.

What was the business record that Trump allegedly falsified?

The prosecution argued that it was checks written to his attorney Michael Cohen.

They had to make this argument because Trump clearly had nothing to do with how this payment was classified on any books of record. His accountants would have done that.

In addition, these checks were written after Trump had already been elected President. 

The checks that Trump wrote were also not on any business or campaign account.

11 checks were made out to Cohen. Nine were written on Trump's personal account and two were written on the account of a personal revocable trust.

None were written from an account involving Trump's business or the Trump campaign.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/30/evidence-trump-hush-money-trial/#:~:text=In%20total%2C%2011%20checks%20were,were%20from%20Trump's%20personal%20account.


How is a check written on a personal account a "business record"?

The prosecution argument also seemed to be that writing the checks out of Trump's personal account was part of a cover up and they should have been written on his business or his campaign bank accounts.

Of course, if that had occurred we know that it would be said that Trump was using business or campaign funds illegally for a personal expense.

The prosecution also argued that because Cohen was paid for legal expenses, which he had to report as income (when part of the payments were reimbursement for the non-disclosure agreement which would not be income), that more taxes were paid to the government than should have been paid due to the improper accounting.  Incredibly, the prosecution argued that paying more taxes than are owed is tax fraud.

This is an excerpt from the closing argument of the prosecution in Trump's trial.


Credit: https://twitter.com/gregg_re/status/1796574143145492748


Who knew that paying more tax than is legally owed is tax fraud when Donald Trump is involved?

How else can this entire trial be described as anything other than as a kangaroo court within a banana republic?


Energy and the Economy




Energy makes the world economy go. We need it for anything we want to do. It needs to be available and it needs to be affordable. The economy does not work without energy. The consumer cannot spend on other things in the economy if they are spending excessive amounts on energy. If the consumer doesn't spend, the economy does not grow. If the economy does not grow, more and more people go without jobs.

When muscle power was the prime energy source in the world we could produce very little. Firewood and domesticated animals improved our ability to produce. However, the introduction of energy sources like coal, oil and gas allowed us to greatly leverage our productive capacity. 

It is not a coincidence that the industrial revolution coincided with the introduction of so-called fossil fuels beginning with coal and moving on to oil and gas and the development of machines that were powered by these energy sources.

If there is one absolute truth in the world today it is that you cannot have economic growth and prosperity for your citizenry without accessible, affordable energy.

There is no such thing as a low-energy, rich country,


 

Masculinity and Femininity In Decline

90% of Boomer men say they are "completely/mostly" masculine, while only 57% of Gen Z men same the same.

Almost all 65+ year old men say they feel masculine but only 57% of 17-27 year old Gen Z's do? 

Similarly, while 87% of Boomer women say they're "completely/mostly" feminine, only 67% of Gen Z women do.



70 year olds have greater self-perceptions of masculinity and femininity than 20 year olds?

Is there something in the water?


Illegal Invasion


U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data reveals that 10 million illegals have been encountered at the borders of the United States during the Biden administration.




The CBP estimates that an additional 1.5-2.0 million illegals entered the country and "gotaway" without being encountered at the border.



To put that in context, the total of 12 million illegals in the last 3+ years is equal to the total number of immigrants who passed through Ellis Island in New York during its 63 years of operation between 1894 and 1952.

However, we are told that Joe Biden might come out this week and announce some executive orders to curtail illegal immigration with the election coming up.

My guess is that any executive order that Biden puts in place on illegal immigration will have a shelf life of about five months.

What about the last thee years? What about the next four years?


Who Is Going To Buy The Debt?

A record $9.3 trillion of U.S government bonds will mature within the next 12 months and have to be refinanced. The Treasury has continued to rely on shorter-dated maturities to finance its spending with a third of the existing US debt maturing within a year from now.

The Treasury has had to rely on short-term maturities as the longer-dated debt instruments have seen tepid demand.

Who is going to buy the debt?

Foreign governments and central bankers have been pulling back on their purchases of U.S. debt.

The bulk of these purchases will have to come from domestic sources---mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, banks and households---or the Fed will have to step in to fill any gaps.

Considering the amount of debt that has to be refinanced in the next 12 months is it realistic that interest rates will come down?

Credit: https://twitter.com/MacroKova/status/1795972691112923526


To put this number in context, as recently as 2007 the entire U.S. debt was $9.3 trillion. It had taken over 200 years to accumulate that debt total.

The U.S. now has almost $35 trillion in debt and has to find buyers for the $9 trillion that has to be financed in the next year plus an additional $3 trillion or so to finance deficit spending over the next 12 months.

How can this end well?

Friday, May 31, 2024

A Verdict Is In, Final Verdict To Come

Donald Trump was found guilty of a felony in his New York trial yesterday.

I wish I could say it was a surprise.

A friend of mine asked me as the jury got the case if I had to wager my house on the outcome what would I predict the result to be.

That could only mean one answer considering the judge that was on the case and the jury was selected from a poll that voted 86% against him in 2020.

There is simply no way that Trump could get a fair trial in that Manhattan court room.

If justice was to be served, the case should have been tried in a New York county in which the 2020 vote was close to 50-50.

I wrote an earlier blog post just as the trial was beginning, "This Is Justice?" on the absurdity of the case to begin with. One fact I was not aware of at that time was that the "business record" that was alleged falsified in this case was actually an expenditure from a personal revocable trust of Trump's. Since when is a personal trust a business anyway?

However, now that the verdict is in what comes next?

The Democrats got what they wanted out of this. 

They wanted to be able to refer to Trump as a convicted felon for the next seven months leading up to the election.

They do not care if the case is reversed on appeal which seems likely if you listen to any number of legal experts. The trial was riddled with errors that were prejudicial to Trump.

The Democrats only want the talking points and hope that the conviction can keep Trump distracted and off the campaign trail.

The statement of the Biden campaign immediately after the verdict tells you all you need to know about the Democrat campaign strategy in all of this.


Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-campaign-reacts-trump-criminal-trial-verdict?intcmp=tw_fnc


Note the words and themes that I have highlighted in that statement referring to Trump.

Convicted felon.

Threat to our democracy.

Unhinged.

Dictator.

Our Constitution will be terminated.

Chaos.

Political violence.

Of course, the problem with all of this is that Trump was already in office for four years.

The Democrats said the same things in 2016.

Was Trump a threat to democracy in his first term?

Was he a dictator?

Was our Constitution terminated?

Granted, there was a share of chaos and political violence but most of that was caused by the Democrats and the phony Russian collusion narrative, two impeachment efforts and the BLM and Antifa riots.

For those who want to point to January 6, that was in the last two weeks of his term. If Trump had been reelected with the same margins Biden had, the only political violence would have been from the leftists.

You will hear the words above over and over again during the campaign.

Biden does not have any tangible accomplishments to run on.

He still has not articulated any vision or concrete policy positions for a second term that are designed to improve the lives of everyday Americans.

This is the campaign strategy. There isn't anything else for Biden to run on.

A former President of the United States and current leading contender for the 2024 election convicted in a rigged, slanted criminal trial seven months before the election?

This is the United States of America?

What comes next?

Trump will clearly appeal but clearing his name might take years.

Will Trump be jailed even if he appeals?

Will the judge place Trump under house arrest so he cannot campaign?

Will the judge put Trump under probation so that he is subject to the court's rules---travel restrictions, drug testing and other controls?

Is the campaign of the leader in the 2024 Presidential race right now going to be subject to the control of a biased New York judge and an anonymous probation officer?

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

We are truly in uncharted territory.

Of course, the New York lower court verdict might be in but the final verdict will be rendered in November.

Will this verdict have any significant effect on Trump vs. Biden when all is said and done?

An NPR/Marist poll done last week found that most opinions about the Trump trial were already baked in and would not have an effect on the race.

15% of all voters said that if Trump was found guilty they would be more likely to vote for him and 17% said they would be less likely to support him. 67% said it would make no difference.

However, among Independents, it appears the conviction might actually be slightly beneficial to Trump.


Source: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202405301406.pdf


My expectation is that the primary benefit to Trump of the verdict will be that this will further motivate his base.

Reports were already coming in shortly after the verdict was announced that Trump's campaign fund and the RNC website had crashed from incoming volume.


Source: https://redstate.com/jeffc/2024/05/30/breaking-trump-donation-page-crashes-after-hush-money-verdict-n2174874#google_vignette


It remains to be seen how the verdict will play into the decision process of the important swing voters.

Do they recoil at the thought of a "convicted felon" as President?

Or do they see what has happened to Trump to be the real threat to democracy and an attempt to undermine the Constitution?

If this can be done to a billionaire businessman, former President and leading contender for another term, who says it cannot be done to anyone?

What is most troubling is what this trial portends for the future as it relates to the rule of law and as a precedent for political rivalries and disputes.

If Trump wins after all that he has been subjected to in this lawfare onslaught, it would be hard to blame him for not seeking a little revenge and retribution.

This by itself has to terrify the Democrats as to what they may have unleashed.

This verdict makes them even more dangerous in what they might be willing to do in this campaign to protect themselves.

It reminds of the plot line of the movie Oppenheimer.

Dr. Oppenheimer spent the entire World War II years working to build an atomic bomb to defeat Germany and Japan. However, once the weapon was unleashed on the world, he spent the rest of his life working for nuclear disarmament.

The Trump verdict has taken us to a place where this is no longer about politics.

This has become much, much bigger than that due to what the Democrats have unleashed.

Have they sown the seeds of Civil War?

I know those are big words but the stakes were just multiplied many times over yesterday.

What will the FINAL VERDICT on all this really be?

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

This and That---May 29, 2024 Edition

A few random observations, charts and factoids to provide some context on what is going on in the world.

Anti-Israel College Protests

Have you noticed that the college protests and encampments against Israel are no longer in the news?

Why is that?

It probably has a lot to do with the fact that most colleges have completed the school year.

Protests are cool as a diversion from classes. They don't seem to be as cool when there are other things to do in the summer. I guess Hamas will have to wait until Fall for more support from the college contingent in the United States.

Speaking of the college protests, I thought the following infographics were interesting which looked at where the Gaza protests were taking place.

The data (compiled by Washington Monthly magazine) shows that it was much more likely to see college protests take place at elite colleges, schools with high tuition and fees, and with students from wealthy families.

For reference, Pell Grants are only awarded to students from low to moderate income families.

Almost all of the anti-Israel encampments were at private universities with high tuition and less than 20% of the students with Pell Grants.




Source: https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/05/24/are-gaza-protests-happening-mostly-at-elite-colleges/




The concentration of protests is not as skewed to high cost, rich students at public universities but notice that there were very few protests at schools in which more than 40% of the students were receiving Pell Grants at either public or private universities.



Source: https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/05/24/are-gaza-protests-happening-mostly-at-elite-colleges/

Why were the protests most prevalent at high cost universities with higher percentages of affluent students?

Is it the teaching these student receive at elite universities?

Is it social contagion?

Is it the fact that students from more modest backgrounds simply do not have the luxury of spending their time protesting when they could be studying or working?

Generational Disconnect

The following survey results are very disconcerting coming in the wake of Memorial Day.

Gen Z does not seem to value much of anything.

That might even include themselves Gen Z  have more mental health struggles than any other generational age cohort.



Doesn't it beg the question as to what exactly those who made the ultimate sacrifice did it for?


Best Places To Live?

Why is it that if only 33% of Gen Z believes that America is the best place to live do so many others want to live in the United States?

The same is true for other Anglosphere countries that we are told are dominated by white supremacy and privilege.

If that is the case, why is it that so many people are fleeing from other countries into these white majority countries and causing large increases in population?

Credit: https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1792534901050225023

Another disconnect?


Inflation Watch

One of the biggest challenges Joe Biden faces in this year's election is inflation.

He is trying to make the argument that inflation is coming down. 

The rate of inflation might be coming down but price levels are not. It would take actual deflation to do that which would most likely require a deep recession and high employment.

Compare inflation during the Trump years to the Biden years.




Is it any wonder that Trump is looking better and better with each passing day compared to Biden?

It is actually more stunning to see these fast food price increases since 2019.

How about a Big Mac and medium fries?


Credit: https://x.com/Timcast/status/1792901648873930861


Biden Approval

The latest Civiqs poll has Biden with only 35% approval from American voters.

He is significantly underwater in every swing state on his approval rating.




In fact, Biden has a positive approval rating in only four states. In three of those, he is barely positive.

Hawaii                         +9
Maryland                     +1
Massachusetts           +3
Vermont                      +1
 
What is really astounding in the approval numbers is the fact that Biden's net approval with young voters is -34 (27% approve, 61% disapprove).

He is in worse shape with young voters than any other age group by a considerable margin.

Only 27% of age 18-34 voters approve of Biden's performance vs. 43% for those age 65+.

In the past, these young voters would probably be counted on to break at least 60/40 for a Democrat.


Source: https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true


My view is that Biden has major problems with three policy issues---Inflation, Illegal Immigration and Israel in addition to being borderline incompetent due to his his age.

Are the Democrats really going to pin their 2024 elections hopes on Biden heading the ticket with polling like this?

Monday, May 27, 2024

Gratitude For Their Greatness

I have featured Angela Pan's photography in BeeLine a number of times over the years.  Angela is based in Washington, D.C. and some of her best work features the the monuments and memorials in our capital city.

These images truly honor the men and women who have given the ultimate sacrifice to preserve our freedom through the years.  

It also a reminder that trying and troubling times often reveal the greatness of individual men and women who step up to meet the challenge.

May they never be forgotten.

All photos below by Angela Pan. 


Arlington National Cemetery




Iwo Jima Memorial 




World War II Memorial




Vietnam Memorial 




Manassas Battlefield



Manassas was the site of two major Civil War Battles. The First Battle of Bull Run (July 21, 1861) and a Second Battle of Bull Run (August 28-30, 1862). Over 20,000 Americans were killed or wounded in the two battles.

Memorial Day began as a day of remembrance for those who perished in the Civil War.  Originally it was called "Decoration Day", a term I still remember my grandparents using to refer to the day.  

It started out being celebrated on May 30 of each year which I also remember. The holiday was established as the last Monday in May by an Act of Congress in 1971.

However, when I was in my first year of law school at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia in 1973,  I remember that the school and others in Atlanta did not recognize the holiday. It was a usual day of business in and around the city.

More than 100 years had passed since the Civil War had ended but Atlanta still viewed it as a "northern" holiday. I guess that proves that old grudges are not easily forgotten. It was not until the following year that we had no classes on Memorial Day. 

Lest we ever think about forgetting, these are the numbers of Americans who have laid their lives down for us per Statista.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1009819/total-us-military-fatalities-in-american-wars-1775-present/


May we have gratitude for their greatness.


Friday, May 24, 2024

The Death Penalty

It used to be be the case that the death penalty was carried out for convicted criminals with an electric chair.

We may soon be at the point that death to our economy and way of life will be due to lack of electricity.

Late last month the energy ministers of the G7 countries (United States, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Japan) agreed to shut down all coal-fired electric generating plants within a decade.


Source: https://www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/g7-agrees-to-shut-down-coal-plants-by-2035-u-k-minister-says-in-climate-breakthrough-1.6865997

Ministers from the Group of Seven nations have agreed to shut down all their coal plants by 2035 at the latest, a U.K. minister said on Monday, in a climate policy breakthrough that could influence other countries to do the same.


16% of electricity in the United States today is generated by coal.

In Germany, it is 27%.

It is 32% in Japan

These are the three largest economic powers in the G7.

Bear in mind that the G7 is saying that they are going to close all coal-fired electric generation capacity at the same time that demands for electricity are increasing dramatically due to electric vehicle mandates, data centers, artificial intelligence, and even crypto mining.

As an example, world electricity demand for just the last three of these is expected to double between 2022-2026.


Source: https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1791348038100816049


The latest projections are that electricity demand over the next decade is going to grow at 3 times the rate at which it grew over the last decade. That would be about a 10% increase in demand in 10 years.

This chart provides perspective on the sources of current world electricity production by source.

Coal remains the largest single source and fossil fuels make up over 60% of the mix with nuclear powering another 10% of the total.

 



How do you increase the number of things plugged into the electric gird while decreasing the energy sources that can be used to power the grid?

By contrast to the G7, China uses coal for 61% of its electric generating power and India is at 75%.

They are both adding coal generating capacity while the G7 is taking them offline.

This is a headline from earlier this year about China's current efforts to build more coal-fired power plants.

China has 300 coal-fired plants either under construction, permitted or awaiting permits.


China currently has more than 300 coal-fired plants that are either under construction, permitted, or awaiting permitting. If all 300 plants are constructed, China’s inventory of coal-fired power plants will increase by more than 25%.


If there is one absolute truth in the world today it is that you cannot have economic growth and prosperity for your citizenry without accessible, affordable energy.

There is no such thing as a low-energy, rich country.



Simple math suggests that you cannot close down 16% of your generating capacity in the United States over the next decade while your demand is increasing by 10% without a significant increase in new sources of power.

As I wrote in a previous blog post, "Where Will The Power Come From?", current energy projects under construction will only increase electricity supply by 5%. Those currently being planned might add another 5%.

If it is this bad in the United States you can only imagine what Germany and Japan are facing in getting enough electricity in the future with their higher dependency on coal.

For example, Germany used to get 30% of its electricity from nuclear. It is now 0%. 


Source: https://x.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1789706917222158699


Coal is now at 27% and they have committed to get that to 0% in a decade. 

Germany can also no longer count on a reliable supply of natural gas from Russia. 

Germany is already relying on wind for abut 40% of its needs. They are going to need to hope the wind blows a lot more and they can ramp up other renewables or those Mercedes, BMW, Siemens and ThyssenKrupp factories will be difficult to operate with no power.

In Japan, renewables only generate about 20% of power needs and nuclear is at 6% today. Japan relies almost exclusively on imported coal, oil and liquid natural gas for its energy needs. Japan appears to be in a tougher spot than Germany if it is going to turn its back on fossil fuels.

In effect, the G7 is implementing the death penalty on themselves.

How can China not be laughing all the way to the bank at the idiocy of their economic competitors who are content in committing national suicide?

In addition, while we are talking about economic suicide and the death penalty. consider the following announcement from the Biden administration this week.

Biden's Energy Department is releasing all 1 million barrels (42 million gallons of gasoline) in the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve to help keep gasoline prices in the Northeast low this summer.



Source: https://www.energy.gov/articles/us-department-energy-announces-sale-northeast-gasoline-supply-reserve-americans-hit-road


The supply reserve was established in 2014 after Hurricane Sandy disrupted gasoline supplies in the Northeast after the storm

The Biden administration supported legislation earlier this year that established that the Northeast Supply Reserve should be shut down because it was too expensive to store refined fuels compared to crude oil.

What happens if another hurricane disrupts supplies in the Northeast?

The Biden administration is not bashful about stating why they are releasing the reserves now.

They want to help put a lid on gas prices in the Northeast this summer.

"The Biden-Harris Administration is laser focused on lowering prices at the pump for American families, especially as drivers hit the road for summer driving season,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm. “By strategically releasing this reserve in between Memorial Day and July 4th, we are ensuring sufficient supply flows to the tri-state and northeast at a time hardworking Americans need it the most.” 

How worried are they about those blue states in the Northeast abandoning Biden this November?

Taking down this reserve of gasoline in the Northeast would not be so bad but for how much Biden drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to gain political points two years ago as oil prices surged.

Biden raided the SPR for almost 300 million barrels of oil from what was in the reserve when he took office.


Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W


Biden promised he would quickly restore the reserve two years ago.

Not much progress is being made in filling it back up as this chart shows.

The SPR is now about where it was 40 years ago.

The list of risks to disruption in our oil supplies is long

Hurricanes.

Russia/Ukraine War.

Israel/Hamas War. 

Regime change in Iran. 

Houthis disrupting ship traffic in the Suez canal.

Biden threatening to arrest oil executives for drilling for oil.

However, our SPR and gasoline reserves are being used for political points.

Another example where we are courting economic suicide.

Death by a thousand cuts---most of which are self-inflicted.