The Real Replacement Theory

Some believe that the open border policy of the Biden Administration and the Democrats is driven by what is called a "Great Replacement Theory".

Proponents of "The Great Replacement Theory" posit that the open border policy is designed to use immigrants (particularly those who are non-white) to undermine or replace the culture and political power of white people living in Western countries.

Proponents of the open border policy deride this as a fringe right-wing conspiracy theory motivated by racism.

Tucker Carlson is one who has raised the question if some of type of replacement theory is driving the current border policies we are seeing in the United States and Europe.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-great-replacement-electoral-strategy

I don't know if this is the case. However, as I wrote in my last blog post "What Am I Missing?", it is difficult to understand the current immigration policy of Biden and the Democrats looking at the issue from any logical or factual perspective.

As I wrote in the blog post.

I wish someone could explain to me how any of this illegal immigration makes sense for American citizens and voters?

1. You flood the country with illegal immigrants

2, The illegals immediately need to be housed and fed in the communities they are transferred to straining state and local services and tax dollars.

3. The extra population puts pressure on housing costs, public services, policing, etc.

4. The extra population puts additional pressure on hospitals, health care, schools, and social service agencies as the illegals assimilate into their communities. 

5. The illegal immigration strains every aspect of our infrastructure---roads, water, sewer systems and the electric grid with people who were not supposed to be here when this infrastructure was put in place.

6. The votes of American citizens are diluted due to outright voting fraud or the census adding additional representatives in areas where the illegals are settled.

7. The illegals increase the supply of cheap labor that has the effect of putting pressure on the wages of low-skilled native born workers (in particular those that the Democrats claim to want to protect).

8. As technology advances and more low-skilled jobs are replaced, it will inevitably lead to a massive  permanent under class that will be totally dependent on government assistance to survive.

9. Does all of this benefit anyone beyond Democrat politicians attempting to hold on to their power?

10. We have not begun to see a fraction of the compounding negative impacts this misguided policy will have on the United States for years and years to come.

In many respects, we see a real replacement theory taking place in some counties across the United States in the latest data on net migration trends from the U.S. Census Bureau,

The Census Bureau data shows these ten counties as having the largest net migration or population losses  over the last year.

Note that they are all large urban counties and eight of the ten are in California or New York.

Source: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/population-estimates-more-counties-population-gains-2023.html

Over the period April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023, Census Bureau data estimates that Los Angeles County has lost almost half a million in population due to net migration to other states and has added 86,992 in population due to international migration into the county.

The Census Bureau data does not break down the migration by race, income or education but you would have to assume the international migration in would be slanted towards non-white and poorer and the domestic migration out would tend to be people with jobs who paid taxes and had the resources to fund a move out of Los Angeles.

The numbers for Cook County.

A similar pattern is seen in the New York City counties of Kings (Brooklyn), Queens and the Bronx.

I also suspect that the international migration patterns into all of these counties is undercounted especially due to the large influx of illegals into New York City and Chicago over the last year in particular.

For example, it is being reported that New York City is currently housing 175,000 migrants from the Southern border. Those numbers would not be included in the numbers above.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2024/02/15/1231712535/how-nyc-is-coping-with-175-000-migrants-from-the-southern-border

What reasonable assumptions can we make in these net migration trends in places like Los Angeles, New York City and Chicago?

The people who migrated out of these cities were undoubtedly more educated, had more skills, had higher incomes, paid more in taxes, were less dependent on welfare and social services and committed fewer crimes than those that migrated in.

That is what I see as the Real Replacement Theory that is taking place in many communities across the United States.

However, it is also true that if these population losses caused by net migration away from these blue counties is not offset someway, their political influence and power will be reduced in the future 

As to whether all of this is an electoral strategy that is really about Democrats trying to hold on to political power and votes you can see Congresswoman Yvette Clark (D-Brooklyn, NY) say the quiet part out loud.

She welcomes illegals into her Brooklyn, New York congressional district as she sees the out migration going around her. She knows she needs to replace that outmigration of natives with illegals to maintain the population in her district and prevent it being redistricted away in the future.

https://twitter.com/SenatorHagerty/status/1744436574610248049

How can anyone look at what is happening in the sanctuary cities and counties around the United States and make the case that any of this is a net positive?

It has little to do with race.

It all revolves around what is required to have a functioning, self-sufficient and productive society.

For example, I don't hear any substantial complaints about the high share of foreign-born workers (many Asian born) who are now represented in science and engineering occupations in the United States.

Credit: https://twitter.com/bpmehlman/status/1768650301769163218

This expertise and prowess is going to strengthen the United States.

The same cannot be said for what we are seeing with illegal immigration and what it is going to do in these so-called sanctuary cities.

Those cities will be anything but a sanctuary for the native inhabitants who do not eventually choose to leave.

It also appears that more and more of the productive members of these cities and counties will make the decision to leave over time which will only accelerate further decline.

It will inevitably lead to hollowed out cities and counties with fewer productive inhabitants, less resources and more needs on an ever dwindling tax base.

All of this is happening in real time before our eyes right now.

The so-called replacement theory on a national basis is not a true replacement in the short--term anyway. It is a dilution theory. The power of native whites is merely being diluted in the short-term to be potentially replaced longer term with higher birth rates in the immigrant population.

However, when illegals arrive in sanctuary cities and natives more to another part of the country, it is a true replacement currently. That is a REAL replacement. It is not a theory.

In the numbers cited above in the counties with the greatest net out migration, 5,6 or 7 natives have been  leaving for every international migrant that is moving in over the last few years.

This is not a replacement THEORY.  It is replacement REALITY.

Productive people with incomes who pay taxes are leaving and being replaced by illegals with few skills who are dependent on government (and the taxes on others) for their support.

What could go wrong?

It is sad that we have to watch all of this unfold as Biden and the Democrats use illegal immigrants to protect their power while not caring one iota for the chaos and devastation that is following in its wake.