Where Will The Power Come From?

Last week the Biden administration's EPA proposed new pollution control rules that would require that as many as two-thirds of all new vehicles sold in the United States by the 2032 model year (less than eight years away) to be electric or hybrids.

That would be nearly a ten-fold increase over current electric vehicle sales.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/20/bidens-regulators-poised-to-issue-rule-meant-to-drive-electric-car-sales-00148019

Electric vehicles made up less than 8% of new vehicle sales last year and more than half of those were Teslas.

The Biden Administration claims that this is not an electric vehicle mandate on auto consumers. However, if the auto makers are prohibited from exceeding 30% in gas-powered vehicles in their output isn't that argument just a little bit disingenuous?

Of course, I have a hard time understanding how a rule like this that would have such far reaching consequences for the American people could be instituted without legislation passed by their elected representatives in Congress.

It is hard to believe that our Founders would not be shocked at this overreach by the executive branch made up of unelected bureaucrats.

However, let's look at this from a more practical perspective---Where will the power come from to charge these electric vehicles?

Bear in mind that at the same time that the climate change lobby wants to ban gasoline powered vehicles they also want to ban coal, natural gas and oil to generate electricity. They are also averse to using nuclear power.

They also want to ban gas stoves in favor of electric stoves and gas furnaces in favor of electric heat pumps.

How does the math work?

How do you increase the number of things plugged into the electric gird while decreasing the energy sources that can be used to power the grid?

How does that work?

There have been almost no additions to nuclear generation capacity in the last 30 years.

Coal plants are being phased out.

They want to do the same with natural gas by 2050 in many states.

In the meantime, it can take years to just get the regulatory permits to build an electric generation plant or to erect high-voltage transmission lines.

Where will the power come from?

About 80% of U.S. electric generation currently comes from coal, natural gas and nuclear.

Only 20% comes from renewables.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php

Wind and solar have been growing as electricity generation sources over the last 20 years but there are also practical limits to the reliability of these sources of energy due to their intermittent nature. Wind and solar typically fail to operate during heatwaves, cloudy, rainy, snowy, or stormy weather conditions.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php

Does anyone remember what happened in Texas in the cold snap of the 2021 winter when the wind turbines froze?

In addition to all of the above we are also seeing substantial increases in the amount of electricity needed to power data centers that will only intensify in the future with the introduction of more artificial intelligence applications.

These data centers consume massive amounts of electricity. They also generate a lot of heat that requires these centers to use a lot of air conditioning to keep the hardware from overheating.

Here is how John Mauldin describes all of this in his latest "Thoughts From The Frontline" newsletter.

Running so many calculations so quickly generates heat. The disposing of it requires cooling systems which consume yet more power (and sometimes massive amounts of water—another not-cheap resource). Yet more power goes into transporting data between users and servers, that may be thousands of miles apart.

You begin to see the challenge. AI generates enormous new energy demand on top of everything else. This is pure growth, not the replacement for something that will go away—at least not yet.

It’s hard to get to Net Zero when we keep inventing new technologies that consume ever larger amounts of energy. The goalposts keep moving.

It is estimated that data center power consumption will jump by a factor of six to ten over the next decade.

Over the last 15 years electricity demand has been relatively stable in the United States. However, we are beginning to see an increase that will undoubtedly grow due to electric vehicles, data centers, AI and even crypto mining.

Notice the noticeable uptick in electricity demand since 2020.

The latest projections are that electricity demand over the next decade is going to grow at 3 times the rate at which it grew over the last decade.

If this proves true, we are going to need 15%-25% more electric generating capacity by 2040 than we have today

Below is a chart that shows the current electric generating plants under construction.

It represents less than 5% of current generating capacity.

Note the heavy preponderance of solar and wind in the numbers (76% of the total).

Source:https://www.publicpower.org/system/files/documents/Americas_Electricity_Generating_Capacity_2023_Update.pdf

These are plants that currently have obtained permits for future construction. Solar and wind are 83% of the total.

It is another 5% of current generating capacity.

Source: https://www.publicpower.org/system/files/documents/Americas_Electricity_Generating_Capacity_2023_Update.pdf

If all of these plants are completed within the next 10 years it would barely keep generating capacity up with projected demand.

However, remember that the climate change lobby wants this new capacity to REPLACE coal and natural gas generating capacity.

Where are we going to get the energy to replace the 60%+ that is currently being generated by coal and natural gas?

The math simply does not work.

Where will the power come from?

It is either going to take a gigantic new technological breakthrough, a massive move to nuclear or we are going to be using coal, natural gas and oil for a lot longer than anyone is willing to admit. 

File this blog post under HARD FACTS that are not included in the narrative about the "Green New Deal".

Feel free to forward it to someone who needs to know that the future may not be as BRIGHT due to this craziness.