What Caused Damar Hamlin's Cardiac Arrest?

It has been less than two weeks since Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest right after he made a tackle in a Monday night football game versus the Cincinnati Bengals.

20 minutes of CPR and other emergency measures were administered on the field before Hamlin was put in an ambulance and transported to the University of Cincinnati Medical Center.

From all reports, Hamlin has made a remarkable recovery considering what appeared to be dire prospects on the field when he heart was not beating.

Hamlin was recently released from the Buffalo hospital that he was transferred to after his initial treatment in Cincinnati and is now recovering and and undergoing rehab at his home.

It is fantastic news all around.

However, the question still remains as what caused Hamlin to suffer cardiac arrest?

In thousands of NFL games with millions of tackles in over 100 years of play and we have never seen anything like this. 

Is there something that can be learned from this to avoid a similar result in the future?

I was watching the game live and there is no doubt that Hamlin suffered a strong blow to his chest area.

Cincinnati Bengals receiver Tee Higgins lowered his shoulder as Hamlin came up to tackle him and you could see him clearly buckle up with force of the blow in real time. 

Here are a couple of images of the hit. Notice that the helmet, which would have magnified the force of the blow, is not hitting the chest area.

Credit: wfft.com

Credit: Getty Images via The Daily Mail

I have seen some people say it was an ordinary hit in the NFL. I didn't see it that way when I was watching the game. It was a very forceful blow by Higgins on Hamlin. I cringed when I saw it.

Seeing Hamlin get up and then collapse I immediately thought that the young athlete might have suffered what is called Commotio Cordis.

This is how WebMD describes the condition.

Commotio cordis is a medical condition that happens when your heart suddenly stops beating (known as cardiac arrest). It usually happens when there's a serious blow or injury to the chest that causes abnormal electrical activity in the heart.

The condition is rare. It's most commonly seen among athletes ages 8-18 who play contact sports like football or martial arts. It can also happen in sports that involve blunt objects like baseballs, hockey pucks, or lacrosse balls.

The most common cause is an impact to the left side of your chest during a sports activity. The impact gives a sudden jolt to the heart muscle. This can cause the heart to have a sudden, irregular, and fast pattern of heartbeats (ventricular fibrillation) and effectively stop beating.

Commotio cordis is an extremely dangerous condition and can lead to death. It's the second leading cause of sudden cardiac death among athletes. If it occurs, CPR and medical attention are needed right away to restore the heartbeat as soon as possible or the odds of survival are very low.

Boys are more likely than girls or adults to experience commotio cordis. In fact, over 9 out of 10 reported cases occur in boys.

Experts believe that a thinner chest wall among young children compared to adults increases the odds of commotio cordis.

I was familiar with Commotio Cordis as I had a son play both high school and college lacrosse and knew about the sad situations where lacrosse players had died after taking a fast traveling lacrosse ball to their chest causing cardiac arrest.

Two that I particularly remember were a University of Massachusetts lacrosse player in 1999 and an athlete from Cornell University who died in 2004 after taking a lacrosse ball to the chest.

The UMass player was Eric Sopracasa who was 21.

Source: https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1999-05-07-9905070262-story.html

Eric Sopracasa, a junior midfielder at the University of Massachusetts, is one of only two lacrosse players known to have died after being struck in the chest with a ball, a leading cardiac researcher said.

Sopracasa, from Farmingville, N.Y., collapsed after being hit by a ball in practice Wednesday, said UMass officials. He was later pronounced dead at Cooley Dickinson Hospital. The cause of death is unknown, but the circumstances are similar to those of several young athletes who have died after being struck in the chest with a baseball or hockey puck.

 

The Cornell player was George Boiardi who was age 22.

George Boiardi, a Cornell University senior student, was struck in the chest with a lacrosse ball late in the fourth quarter of a game against Binghamton University last night (March 17) at Cornell's Schoellkopf Field. He collapsed, and medical personnel tried to revive him on the field. He was rushed to Cayuga Medical Center, where he was pronounced dead at 6:44 p.m.

Both of these deaths stood out to me because they came at a time that my son was playing lacrosse where the ball can be traveling at speeds of over 90 mph with college players.

It is a risk you don't disregard when you are a father.

Was Damar Hamlin a victim of Commotio Cordis?

That was my first reaction.

However, is that what really caused Damar Hamlin's cardiac arrest?

There has been nothing stated yet from the doctors who treated Hamlin.

Could Hamlin have had some type of undetected congenital heart defect that contributed to his cardiac arrest?

Some have questioned whether the Covid vaccine that all NFL players were pressured into taking might be responsible. It appears that last year Hamlin was fully vaccinated as were all Buffalo players save for two (reports are that Josh Allen and Cole Beasley refused the vaccine last year).  I have not seen any reports this year on booster uptake with NFL players although in December, 2021 it was league policy for all players, coaches and staffs to get a booster dose.

The CDC has stated that myocarditis or pericarditis is a potential side effect of the Covid shots especially with young men under age 40. Those between age 12 and 24 have the highest risk.

However, the CDC also states that cases of myocarditis or pericarditis caused by the vaccine are very rare and most resolve over time with no long term effects.

Dr. Tony Fauci was quick to take to the airwaves and immediately state that it was clear that Hamlin had taken a severe blow to his chest area and it is known that this can cause a traumatic injury to the heart. He dismissed as a "conspiracy theory" any suggestion that Hamlin's cardiac arrest could be due to the mRNA vaccine.

I fully understand why the public health establishment and the NFL want the vaccine to be ruled out as a possible cause of Hamlin's injury.

It would not be very good PR for people like Fauci in the public health arena if Hamlin's injury was somehow found to be associated with the vaccine nor would it be good for the NFL who so zealously promoted the vaccines to its players.

I am not a doctor so I will wait for medical professionals who have treated Hamlin and run tests on him to see their conclusions.

However, since that first night when my initial conclusion was that it was due to Commotio Cordis, further research I have done has raised some doubts in my mind on what was the cause of Hamlin's heart issue.

First, cases of Commotio Cordis are most likely in those age 8-18. This is because they have thinner chest walls protecting the heart. Hamlin was 24. It is true that the two lacrosse cases I cited above were 21 and 22 but Hamlin was older still and being a professional football player likely had even more chest musculature than the college lacrosse players.

Second, almost all cases of Commotio Cordis involve a serious blow directly to the heart area in a compact, forceful way such as delivered by a baseball or lacrosse ball. The energy is concentrated in a small area and is not spread over the chest.

Hamlin took a shoulder to his chest. That would disperse the force across the chest much more than being hit by a ball. It is true that the shoulder pad of Higgins could have somehow magnified the blow and it might have made more contact directly with the heart area.

However, the other factor at play here is the force of the blow due to the speed of the object hitting the chest.

A baseball or lacrosse ball hitting an object at 90 mph delivers an enormous amount of concentrated force.

Tee Higgins is 6'4'' and 218 pounds. At the NFL Combine he ran a 4.59 40 yard dash. That translates to a speed of 17.8 mph.

Why is this relevant?

Energy created in a collision is generally a product of the square of the velocity of the impact.

The speed of a thrown ball is much greater than the speed of any human being.

These tweets by Dr. Venk Murthy who is a cardiologist and also holds a PhD in Biophysics from Johns Hopkins was thought provoking for me.

 

It is an additional perspective I was not aware of when I first considered that Commotio Cordis was the likely cause of Hamlin's collapse.

Third, I find it interesting that almost two weeks into this, no conclusions have been announced by the doctors treating Hamlin as to what caused Hamlin's cardiac arrest. 

In the environment we have been living in I would think there would be pressure to declare it was Commotio Cordis and bury any notion of vaccine involvement.

I hope that this is because they want to be exceedingly careful in any conclusions they render in this case. Is this is a sign where truth may once again be valued more than the narrative? I hope so.

My fear is we may never be given an answer.

Or it will not be the full truth.

However, it seems as if we are seeing an abnormal number of what appear to be healthy, young people suddenly developing heart or vascular related conditions.

Can anyone explain why this is happening?

Source: https://twitter.com/RealWayneRoot/status/1612313683178446848/photo/1

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hunter-brown-dies-age-21-air-force-academy-football-player-medical-emergency/

All of these incidents have been reported in the last couple of months.

Are all of these just weird coincidences?

Is this just because we have an amplified news cycle powered by social media?

Or is there something more to all of this?

Let's hope we get answers we can rely on.

For Damar Hamlin...and everybody else.

Dramatically Disconnected

There is a huge difference in what the coastal elites believe people should be interested in and what they actually are interested in.

To hear the elites talk about it, you would think that everybody is tuning into CNN or MSNBC to get the news.

It would seem you have to be one of those in a "basket of deplorables", as Hillary Clinton described Trump voters in 2016, to be watching Fox News.

Of course, Trump won in 2016 and in 2022 it does not seem much has changed in the tv preferences of the American people.

I thought this factoid on cable viewership in 2022 to be quite interesting.

When it comes to cable tv viewing the odds were high that Americans were watching Fox News or ESPN more than anything else in the last year.

CNN could not not even beat out The Hallmark Channel in attracting a large audience.

Does this suggest that there is a significant disconnect between what the elites believe and reality?

Further proof of the disconnect between the coastal elites and mainstream America was the rant Joy Behar of "The View" went on last week where she blamed "heterosexual conservatives" for their support of football in the aftermath of the injury to Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin.

Source: https://www.thehollywoodgossip.com/2023/01/joy-behar-blames-heterosexual-conservatives-for-existence-of-football-in-damar-hamlin-related-rant/

All I can say that there must be a lot of heterosexual conservatives around when you consider the 100 most-watched tv broadcasts in 2022.

Credit: https://twitter.com/markjburns88/status/1611375359626469376

82 out of the top 100 were NFL football games.

5 were college football games.

NFL football games garnered 19 out of the first 20 spots.

The most watched World Cup soccer game ranked #38.

The Academy Awards was #77.

The highest ranking college basketball games was #67.

Of note, not one MLB, NBA or NHL game ranked in the top 100.

In the last two years combined, NFL football games captured 157 of the 200 most watched tv broadcasts. 

MLB, NBA and NHL had zero.

Do you see a disconnect?

Joy Behar and the coastal elites would seem to the last place to go if you are looking to take the pulse of the American people.

This and That-January 5, 2023 Edition

Stock and Bond Returns in 2022

Investors in the stock and bond markets in the United States just saw the worst year of performance since 1871.

Credit: https://twitter.com/austinbyersking/status/1608857155641442309

The S&P 500 was down 20% in 2022.

The NADAQ was even worse---down 34%.

The Dow looked good by comparison only giving up 9.4% for the year.

Rising interest rates decimated bond returns like nothing we have ever seen seen since the founding of the United States. Long bonds were down over 25%.

Credit:https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1610404526678507521/photo/1

A balanced portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds lost about 17% for the year. (VBINX-Vanguard 60-40 Balanced).

On the other hand, if you had $100,000 invested in Vanguard's Federal Money Market Fund in January you were receiving about 85 cents per month in interest. In December, that same investment was producing $350 in interest income for the month.

Investors with cash sitting on the sidelines invested in short-term Treasury securities were the only big winners in 2022.

Over $40 trillion of wealth was eviscerated in global stock and bond values in 2022. That is twice the amount lost in 2008 in nominal dollars.

Credit: https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1608811525971509249/photo/1

Viva Las Vegas

Seeing investment returns in 2022 might make some decide that they might be better trying their hand at the gambling tables in Las Vegas.

If that is on your mind you might find the Gaming Revenue Report from the Nevada Gaming Commission to be interesting.

This is the summary report for November, 2022.

These numbers are in 000's.

The "Win Amount" is what the casino "won". The "Win Percent" is how much the house won as a percent of the total amounts wagered.

Source: https://gaming.nv.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=19300

A few observations.

The gaming establishments won $1.2 billion in November. "The house always wins in the end."

Slots are the least profitable for the casinos. Their win percentage is only 7.5%. Interestingly, the penny slots are the worst play for those playing the slots. 

I found it also interesting that about 25% of the total winnings the casinos take in ($300 million) are from penny slots. Stakes are low but the casinos make it up in volume. Slots generally account for more than two-thirds of the win amounts for the casinos.

Twenty One and Baccarat provide the best odds for gambling at the table and card games.

Keno, Bingo and 3-Card Poker look to be worse than playing the stock market in 2022.

Notice that the Sports Book generally provides a lower win percent than most other betting.

You might also notice the massive negative (17.75%) win percent on Baseball in November.

I have to believe that this is due to the winning bet Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale had on the Houston Astros winning the World Series.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/07/mattress-macks-record-75-million-astros-payout-will-cost-caesars-penn-big-this-quarter.html

Here is a screen shot from a video showing Mattress Mack using a wheelbarrow to load part of his cash winnings on to a private jet in Las Vegas to fly home to Houston.

Source: https://www.kfyrtv.com/video/2022/11/14/mattress-mack-picks-up-millions-won-world-series-bets-las-vegas/

An Easy A

When I went to college students would sometimes try to balance out a tough course load with one elective class that had a reputation as an "Easy A". 

Those courses were few and far between. My fraternity usually kept a list of classes and professors that might provide a reprieve from grade pressure in order to put more time into Statistics, Microeconomics, Organic Chemistry or Physics.

That was over 50 years ago. A 3.0 GPA at that time put you comfortably in the top half of of the class.

That is not longer the case as this chart indicates.

The AVERAGE GPA at Harvard is now 3.8.

If the current trend continues everyone at Harvard will graduate in ten years with a perfect 4.0.

Meanwhile at New York City's elite New School students were recently demanding that they receive A's for all their fall courses in the wake of student protests at the elite college.

Source: https://www.thecollegefix.com/elite-private-college-students-demand-all-as-for-their-fall-classes/

Students at New York City’s elite New School are demanding that all students get A’s across the board for their fall classes …  because they’re miffed at the college’s leadership.

According to Human Events, the demands are part of a student “rebellion” in solidarity with faculty who recently held a strike for better pay and benefits.

“We demand that every student receives a final course grade of A as well as the removal of I/Z grades for the Fall 2022 semester,” the first demand reads. “Attendance shall have no bearing on course grade. Grading shall not be conducted by anyone other than the official course instructor or teaching assistant

The school, which costs around $44,000 per year to attend, includes a long list of famous alumni such as actor Jesse Eisenberg, playwright Tennessee Williams, and the economist Franklin D. Roosevelt III.

It seems this is the inevitable result when students are told that everyone has a right to the same outcome irrespective of talents, effort or work. 

A Lot Has Changed

As we embark on a new year it is always a good time to reflect on change.

There have been a lot of changes over the last 70 years.

A friend and BeeLine reader recently sent me a reminder of that in the form of some photos and  illustrations that drive the point home. (Hat tip to W.S.)

Those of us who are chronologically advantaged can probably better relate to many of these than others might..

However, there is something in here for everyone to appreciate on how our culture has changed over the years.

Good, bad or indifferent.

You can be the judge of that.

 

Best of BeeLine-2022

Here is a Top 10 List for the Best of BeeLine for 2022. The first five are the most popular posts I wrote during the year based on the number of views. The second five are a few of my personal favorites out of the 139 blog posts I wrote during the year. 

We started the year with Covid again dominating the headlines and my blog posts about the pandemic  continued to be some of the most popular with my readers. The popularity of my posts on the subject indicate that there were a lot of people looking for honest, data-driven information to put the subject in perspective.

However, for the first time in a couple of years I saw other topics begin to gain more attention with readers. Only two Covid blog posts ended up in the top five for views. That is a welcome trend and let's hope it continues into the new year. That being said, I am sure Covid will be a topic in these pages in 2023 for the simple reason that the data so often simply does not support the narrative. I will continue to point out the inconsistencies where it is warranted so you have the facts to make informed decisions for yourself.

If you missed reading these "Best of BeeLine" posts the first time around, here's another opportunity to get to "the shortest route to what you need to know" to start 2023 off right. 

You might also consider forwarding this post to friends who might appreciate a blog that tries to put some of the complicated issues of the day in context informed with data and facts. I enjoy writing BeeLine but it is a lot easier to sit down, research and write when I know more are reading what I write. I don't promote or advertise this blog. New readers almost always come from one of you passing it along to someone else.

If you want to make sure you don't miss a post, consider putting yourself on the BeeLine email list. You will receive an email of the blog whenever I put up another post. 

You can sign up in the upper right hand corner on the web page (Link to web home page is here). You need to be viewing the web version to do this as this feature does not show up on your phone. You will receive a follow-up email (from Follow.it) that you will need to confirm to begin delivery. 

The Best of BeeLine-2022 list is below with pull quotes from each of the posts to give you a better idea about what is contained therein.

Thank you to all my loyal BeeLine readers and a Happy New Year to each one of you!

The Best of BeeLine-2022

Most Popular Based on Views

Geert Vanden Bossche Update   January 24, 2022

"It should be clear by now that all that you have been told over the last two years has not proven to be true.

Perhaps it is time to consider listening to a broader range of opinions as you attempt to evaluate what is best for you, your family and loved ones....and our society as a whole...as we move forward.

You might want to consider keeping the name Geert Vanden Bossche in mind as you do that. Just knowing his name puts you in an elite group of  0.1%."

Your Fair Share   April 18, 2022

"It's tax day in the United States.

An estimated 179 million income tax returns are required to be filed by today for the 2021 tax year.

It is projected that  57% of those returns will not owe any federal income tax.

In 2020, thanks to Covid relief and reduced incomes due to the lockdowns, 62% did not have to pay one cent of federal income tax."

What Is Going On With Deaths?    January 5, 2022

"Deaths for those age 65+ are up 19% in both 2020 and 2021 compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019.

However, deaths for those under age 65 are up 35% in 2021 compared to the 2019 level. Deaths were up 22% in these ages between 2019 and 2020.

When in human history has there ever been an effective vaccine introduced in which deaths went up?

This is particularly true for those under age 65 comparing 2021 vs. 2020.

Covid deaths in this age group almost doubled despite vaccines being available in 2021?"

Improper, Wicked or Both?   August 20, 2022

"What were three leading examples of "Improper and Wicked Projects" according to James Madison?

A rage for the abolition of debts 

A rage for paper money 

A rage for an equal division (or redistribution) of property 

Cancelling student loans would seem to be a trifecta involving all three.

You have the rage for the abolition of the student debt.

You have the rage for the redistribution of property to a few (the student loan borrowers) from everyone else.

You have the rage for the creation of even more paper money by the Federal Reserve to pay for the cancelled debt to balance the federal government's books.

It does not get more improper... or wicked than that according to Madison."

33 Years of Misinformation   February 8, 2022

"The Cincinnati Bengals are in the Super Bowl for the first time since 1989.

That is a long time ago.

What hasn't changed since 1989?

We are hearing the same dire warnings about climate change in 2022 that we did in 1989.

Environmental officials at the United Nations were warning us in 1989 that entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend was not reversed in the next decade.

Does anyone else think it is curious that in 2020 the top expert at the United Nations was saying the exact same thing that was being said in 1989?"

A Few Personal Favorites

Remaining Sane In A World Gone Insane   February 18, 2022

"How does one remain sane in a world gone insane?

It is a question I ask myself more each day.

A few examples taken from recent headlines."

What Emergency?   June 20, 2022

"This past week the FDA authorized emergency use of the Pfizer and Moderna Covid vaccines for children as young as 6 months of age.

Since the authority is being given you might want to know what the emergency is?

According to the CDC, there have been 143 deaths of children ages 1-4 from Covid since January 1, 2020. 

Over that same span of almost 2-1/2 years, there have been 382 deaths from the flu and pneumonia.

Does this look like an emergency?"

Will The LIV Golf Tour Live?   July 27, 2022

"LIV may get some type of monetary settlement from the PGA Tour in the end.

Perhaps a couple of LIV events will be incorporated into the PGA Tour when this is all over.

The PGA Tour may lose its tax-exempt status due to the scrutiny it will be under.

The charities that the PGA Tour supports may end up with less.

However, I will be shocked if an independent LIV Golf Tour exists in three years time.

It is also difficult to see when it is all over that professional golfers in general, the charities supported by the PGA Tour and the overall game of golf will be better.

I am not betting on LIV living long term."

Treason is Fine, Just Don't Violate HIPAA   October 5, 2022

"An Army major and his wife committing treason?

It was actually a gay couple who were conspiring to give U.S. military medical information to the Russians.

The Army doctor had a secret security clearance at Fort Bragg.

The wife worked at Johns Hopkins in Baltimore.

The Army doctor was actually transgender having the distinction of being the first Army officer to come out as such in 2015.

There used to be a time when it would have been impossible for someone with the background of Major Jamie Lee Henry to get any type of security clearance.

That clearly is not the case today.

What I found particularly interesting in the details of the case was that Major Henry did not seem to have great concerns about passing classified information to the Russians but was concerned about violating HIPAA.  His? Her? wife had no such concerns. She told the FBI undercover agent he? she? was a "coward" but she would bring him? her? around.

What type of moral compass does one have to possess in order to have no qualms in passing classified information to the Russians but have reservations about violating HIPAA?

Do you think something is askew somewhere?"

Fastening Chains To Their Own Ankles?   November 14, 2022

"We were told during the Trump years we were becoming an authoritarian state.

We were told in the run up to last week's election that democracy was at stake.

On college campuses we are told how important it is to have diversity for the strength of our society.

Contrast these statements with the vote totals in the midterms on two college campuses that I have seen  reported.

At the University of Michigan reports are that 94% of students voted for Democrat Gretchen Whitmer.

At Arizona State University, 96% of the students voted for Democrat Katie Hobbs.

The fact is that the votes on these college campuses are not far from the 100% vote totals for the Communists (there is no other choice) in China, North Korea and Cuba.

However, these young voters did not have a gun to their heads.

There was no national police in place to intimidate them.

They did not risk being imprisoned for their views.

All of this is apparently the result of an education system, mainstream and social media that have aligned with messaging that is equal to the best propaganda techniques."

BeeLine in Pictures-2022

As the year winds down I have traditionally posted some of the best pictures I have taken with my iPhone during the year.

In the past this included pictures I took on my travels around the world.

There are no pictures from Santorini, Shanghai, Sydney or Stonehenge this year as in the past.

Nor photos from Bora Bora. Bermuda or even Batavia, Ohio.

However, I was still able to capture a few memorable images to document the year.

Below are a few of the sights that I found in scrolling through the photos on my phone.

We still are bombarded with a lot of disheartening and discouraging news almost every day but we are also blessed to live in a beautiful and beguiling world if we stop and look around.

A few examples that underscore that point.

Sunrise, Miramar Beach, Florida

Sunset, Miramar Beach, Florida

Rosemary Beach, Florida

Seaside, Florida

Chattahoochee River, Georgia

Cyclorama, The Battle of Atlanta
Atlanta, Georgia History Center

The Grand Slam Trophies of Bobby Jones
Atlanta, Georgia History Center

The Greenbrier
West Virginia

Stream at The Homestead
Hot Springs, Virginia

Falling Springs Falls
Virginia

Indian Tunnel Cave
Craters of the Moon National Monument 
Arco, Idaho

Indian Tunnel Cave
Craters of the Moon National Monument 
Arco, Idaho

Soldier Mountain
Fairfield, Idaho

Winter Sunset Looking Out From The BeeLine Command Center
Cincinnati, Ohio 

Random Ramblings

A few random ramblings to take you into the holidays.

Omnibus Spending Bill 

The Congress looks like it is going to pass a $1.7 trillion spending bill just days before the House of Representatives is going to become Republican controlled.

I am at a loss as to why Senate Republican leader Mitch MeConnell would agree to this bill when the leverage and negotiating power of Republicans will go up substantially in a little over a week's time when they take control in the House.

Even more difficult to understand is McConnell's defense of the compromise legislation he has been hammering out with Democrats Schumer and Pelosi.

He claimed that it was important to support the bill because of increased defense spending and the additional support it provides to Ukraine in its war with Russia.

In fact, McConnell stated that most Republicans believed that arming Ukraine was the number one priority for the United States right now.

The bill increases the amount the United States has provided to Ukraine over the last year to more than $100 billion.

Seriously, Mitch?

More important than the economy, inflation, out of control government spending, immigration or collusion between the FBI and other government agencies to interfere in elections and curtail free speech?

Of course, McConnell is not alone. He got 17 other GOP Senators to support moving the legislation forward on the final vote. It now goes to the Democrat-controlled House where passage is assured. Democrats never break ranks on important votes.

Do you think the Democrats in the Senate would do anything similar if the roles were reversed?

Not a chance.

Trump's Tax Returns

The Democrats finally got their long-awaited wish and were able to disclose Donald Trump's tax returns,

The returns for 2015-2020 were released this week.

They showed Trump had adjusted gross income of -$53 million cumulatively for the six years.

He paid $1.8 million in taxes.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/21/us/politics/trump-tax-return-numbers.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20221222&instance_id=80837&nl=the-morning&regi_id=73336580&segment_id=120535&te=1&user_id=2e6cdf0ad8819ff86cda51e914c3d036

Most of the losses were associated with real estate and other businesses.

All of the years have been audited by the IRS or are currently under examination.

So Trump had negative income of over $50 million,  paid $1.8 million in taxes and the Democrats think he did not pay enough?

You lose millions of dollars, still pay a couple million in taxes and you should have paid more?

That is an interesting take since all of the deductions, credits etc. that he might have taken on those returns were put in the Internal Revenue Code by people in Washington that were not named Trump. Most were passed with a majority of Democrat votes since they were in control of Congress for most of the past 80 years.

They were put into the law to incentivize entrepreneurs like Trump to take risks in order to create jobs for workers.

Trump did not even take office until 2019.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/21/us/politics/trump-tax-return-numbers.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20221222&instance_id=80837&nl=the-morning&regi_id=73336580&segment_id=120535&te=1&user_id=2e6cdf0ad8819ff86cda51e914c3d036

Democrats are also complaining that the IRS did not begin auditing Trump's 2017 and later returns as required of all Presidents until after he left office. However, in my experience as a tax attorney dealing with the IRS over the years, it was the general rule that most large returns (especially those with carryover issues from prior years) would not be be audited until several years after the tax year had concluded. I see nothing unusual in what the IRS did in this case. It was standard practice.

The fact is that almost all taxpayers would rather have an audit take place as close to the tax year as possible. It is easier to collect records, etc. The IRS is almost always the one that delays audits.

Perhaps the new 87,000 IRS employees coming on board over the next few years will speed things up.

Covid 

A couple of weeks ago I posted data showing that New York and Florida were currently admitting seeing more daily hospital admissions for Covid this year than they did at the same time last year.

This is also true looking in the United States at large for those age 70+ at the current time.

This hospitalization rate was 12.2/100,000 on December 21, 2021. It is 13.6 now for this age group.

This is a group in which 93% are fully vaccinated and 67% are boosted.

It is at odds with everything we have been told.

A recent study from The Cleveland Clinic in which it followed all of its 50,000 employees to determine the effectiveness of the new Bivalent booster provides some interesting data that might explain what is going on.

It is without question that the age 70+ group is the most at risk from Covid and most likely to be hospitalized.

It is also the age group most likely to be fully vaccinated and have gotten the latest boosters.

The Cleveland Clinic study actually found that the more vaccines doses that an individual had the more likely they would be infected with Covid over the period of the study.

In fact, those who were not vaccinated were least likely to get Covid. Those who had received more than three doses were most likely to be infected. There was a direct correlation between the number of doses received and the rate of infection in those studied.

(Black line- 0 doses). (Orange line- 4 or more doses).

Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full.pdf

This data suggests that there might be something to the theories of Geert Vanden Bossche who has argued that the vaccines may make someone may vulnerable to future infection.

Is this the reason we are seeing more age 70+ people in the hospital right now than last year?

We can only hope that we are seeing an earlier peak in cases than last year. If we were to follow last year's trajectory of hospital admissions we are in deep, deep trouble.

Another interesting fact I found in the study was that 59% of Cleveland Clinic employees reported that they had never been infected with Covid almost three years into the pandemic. This is despite working in a healthcare setting.

Could this be due to the vaccines? It might.

However, less than 10% of all employees reported that they had been infected before the vaccines rolled out widely in January, 2021. Three times as many reported being infected after the vaccines were in use. 27% of employees were infected with Omicron after the boosters had been deployed.

Could it be that the vaccines might not be everything Dr. Fauci says they are? That might be true as well.

In fact, the Cleveland Clinic contains this statement in its conclusion.

“We still have a lot to learn about protection from COVID-19 vaccination, and in addition to a vaccine’s effectiveness it is important to examine whether multiple vaccine doses given over time may not be having the beneficial effect that is generally assumed.”

Why Work? 

Many employers continue to struggle to find enough employees willing to work.

It is a problem that has building for years and is the result of several factors including declining numbers of those of working age due to retirements of Baby Boomers and fewer younger people entering the labor force.

The problem has been exacerbated over the years due to the safety net of benefits that are provided to those who are not working or who are on some form of welfare program.

Unemployment benefits are taxable income but most welfare benefits are not.

As a result, it takes higher and higher wages to induce people to work to compete with tax-free government benefits.

The system makes it more profitable to collect government benefits than work for a wage.

I wrote about this problem ten years ago in these pages in a blog post titled, "Why Work?"

One big factor in why the welfare recipient makes out so well is the tax-free nature of welfare benefits and the refundable tax credits that are built into the Internal Revenue Code.  Tax loopholes are not just for the rich any more.

Providing housing assistance, food stamps (EBT), welfare, Medicaid, child care assistance and Obamaphones in after-tax dollars provides a significant income advantage to the welfare recipient compared to a middle-class worker.

Consider a cell phone.  If a private sector worker and taxpayer wants a $50 monthly cell phone plan they need to earn about $65 to pay for the cell phone.  They need to pay income taxes (15%), FICA (7.65%) and state taxes before they have the money to spend on the cell phone.  People on welfare are just given the cell phone.

I am all for helping people who need a helping hand. However, this is clearly not a sustainable path. It also clearly shows that the incentives in the system are not properly aligned to get us the results we should be getting. 

Consider this fact about a single mother in Pennsylvania with two children.

The single mom is better off earning $29,000 with gross income from working combined with welfare assistance that provides $57,327 in net income and benefits than to earn gross income of $69,000 solely from working that nets out to income and benefits of $57,045.

In other words, earning more than $29,000 from work actually starts to reduce the single mom's household income. There is no incentive to earn more. It is more profitable to stay home and collect welfare.

 

I was reminded of this subject as I saw this New York Post opinion article last week.

The authors calculated the income and hourly wage equivalent in every state for a family with two unemployed adults and two children from unemployment and welfare benefits.

The numbers are mind boggling.

In several states a family of four can make the equivalent of six figures in household income by not working!

It was far worse than this when we had Covid supplemental unemployment benefits on top of these amounts.

Is it any wonder that millions of workers disappeared into thin air?

If we incentivize people not to work what result do we expect?

I believe we know the answer. 

Happy holidays to all!