One of the knocks we keep hearing about Mitt Romney is that he is not conservative enough for Republican voters and he will suppress enthusiasm in the Fall election.
We also hear that Ron Paul would be an utter disaster as a nominee in that he would not appeal to anyone beyond fringe Republican voters.
Consider those perspectives and match that up with this recent CBS News poll (January 9) in hypothetical match-ups between the Republican hopefuls and President Obama. Romney is the only candidate right now who is shown as leading the incumbent. Ron Paul is surprisingly competitive head-to-head with the President. What I find most interesting are the internal splits on preferences by party affiliation.
Mitt Romney polls better among Republicans than any of the other candidates. He polls almost 10 points better with Republican voters than Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman. How is this possible if Romney is not conservative enough for Republican voters? I think the answer is that he is still viewed as the strongest candidate to beat Barack Obama and that is the most important issue with most Republicans.
Each of the candidates has about the same appeal to Democrats. They all draw 8-10% of the vote. It does not seem to matter who the Republicans nominate insofar as this group is concerned. It is a non-factor.
However, Romney is favored by Independents by 6 points. Ron Paul does even better by beating Obama by 7 points with Independent voters. All other Republican candidates lose this group of voters. Santorum and Huntsman are down 2-3 points but Gingrich and Perry trail by 7 points in these important swing voters.
Looking at the hard numbers of this polling is very favorable to Romney. He polls the best among Republican voters and he also polls well with Independents. That is a winning combination.
On the other hand, the candidate that really needs to court Republicans voters is Ron Paul. He is actually polling better among Independents and Democrats than Romney is. However, he has to convince a lot more Republicans or he will never get through the primaries.
A Gallup poll (January 10, 2012) provides another perspective that is different than the opinions that are often circulating around on television. Mitt Romney is the only candidate right now that is viewed as "acceptable' by a majority of Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents. 59% state that he is acceptable (31% say he is unacceptable). On the other hand, only 29% of Republican say that Ron Paul is acceptable and a staggering 62% find him unacceptable. This shows just how steep the climb will be for Ron Paul to vie for the Republican nomination.
One final poll that puts it all in perspective is this US News and World Report poll in which the question was asked of Americans what news event they most feared in 2012. The most feared headline was Obama is Re-elected with 33%. By contrast, only 16% feared the opposite result-Obama Defeated. 31% stated that Taxes Will Increase was their worst fear. Therefore, 64% either fear Obama being re-elected or taxes are going to increase. Does this sound like a good year to be running as a Democrat? In the final analysis, it might not make a big difference who is the Republican nominee looking at these numbers.
The complete list of most feared news events from the poll.
President Obama wins reelection 33%
Taxes will increase 31%
Iran will get a nuclear weapon 16%
Obama will lose reelection 16%
North Korea will attack South Korea 4%
Source: The Synovate eNation Internet poll was conducted December 29-January 2 among a national sample of 1,000 households by global market research firm Synovate for US News and World Report.
34-22-$5.66million
On the subject of data, I also came across these interesting facts about Marilyn Monroe recenlty. A number of her personal effects and wardrobe were auctioned off in two separate auctions. One by her own estate and second by the estate of Debbie Reynolds who had an extraordinary collection of Hollywood costumes of Marilyn and other stars. These are summarized in this article from Bloomberg and this one from Slate. The facts on Marilyn from the Bloomberg article..
We should never again hear anyone declare that Marilyn Monroe was a size 12, a size 14 or any other stand-in for full-figured, zaftig or plump. Fifteen thousand people have now seen dramatic evidence to the contrary. Monroe was, in fact, teeny-tiny.
The auction’s top-ticket item was Monroe’s famous white halter dress from “The Seven Year Itch,” the one that billowed up as the subway passed. It sold for almost $5.66 million (including the buyer’s premium) to an unknown phone bidder. Sharing a rotating mirrored platform with Hedy Lamarr’s peacock gown from “Samson and Delilah” and Kim Novak’s rhinestone- fringed show dress from “Jeanne Eagels,” Monroe’s costume was displayed on a mannequin that had been carved down from a standard size 2 to accommodate the tiny waist. Even then, the zipper could not entirely close.
But that’s just one dress. Perhaps the star was having a skinny day. To check, you could look across the room and see that Monroe’s red-sequined show dress from “Gentlemen Prefer Blondes” was at least as petite, as were the saloon costume from “River of No Return” and the tropical “Heat Wave” outfit from “There’s No Business Like Show Business.”
The Slate article by Simon Doonan who inventoried and auctioned all of the clothes in her personal estate sale puts it all in perspective.In fact, the average waist measurement of the four Monroe dresses was a mere 22 inches, according to Lisa Urban, the Hollywood consultant who dressed the mannequins and took measurements for me. Even Monroe’s bust was a modest 34 inches.That’s not an anecdote. That’s data.
When you look at Marilyn on-screen and—armed with the information I have just provided—you realize that the busty, ample gal brimming over Tony Curtis in Some Like It Hot is literally one-third your size, you have every right to become suicidal. If she looks like that—zaftig, almost chubby—what on earth would you look like under similar circumstances?On second thought, perhaps it is sometimes better not to be a facts guy. Having no facts make life much easier.
Conventional wisdom says that the camera adds five pounds. After my Marilyn experience, I would say it’s more like 500 pounds.
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