Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Trump and Kim Jong Un

I have no idea whether President Trump will be able to successfully negotiate peace with North Korea and get Kim Jong Un to give up his nuclear weapons.

North Korea has a long history of being untrustworthy and unreliable. It may very well end badly and be an embarrassing episode for the President.

The one thing I am sure of is that no other President could have gotten this far.

They simply would not be willing to risk it.

There are many that are trying to minimize what Trump has accomplished to this point with North Korea. They are saying that Obama, Hillary or Bush could have done it.

If that is so, why didn't they do it?  That is all you need to know.

Others did not do it because they feared failure more that they sought success.

Trump has gotten us to this place because he did not fear failure. He was willing to put himself at risk by seeking a deal with Kim.


Credit: AOL.com


If this works out I think the statement that Trump made last night will go down as one of the most famous quotes of his Presidency. He made this statement referring to the opportunity that Kim Jong Un has before him but it applies equally to Trump.


'Anyone Can Make War, Only the Most Courageous Can Make Peace'


The willingness to put it all on the line is the quality that sets Trump apart from almost all politicians. He is not afraid to step out and, more importantly, he is willing to take the heat when he does.  You see it every day and the mainstream media and the political class tell us every day that Trump doesn't know what he is doing.

Yet, every day the results belie what they are telling us.

Look at the stand he took on immigration. No one else was taking this issue on when Trump starting talking about it the way he did. He has changed the entire conversation.

You can say the same thing about trade, the Paris climate agreement, the Iran agreement or dealing with ISIS. Yes, there is a lot of noise and complaints from both allies and enemies alike. However, things inexorably seem to be moving in the direction of the United States.

I wrote a blog post several months ago where I observed that a President could not be great unless they first were not afraid to be great.

People can say a lot of things about Donald Trump. However, they cannot say that he is afraid to be great.

Most Presidents never become great because they are typical politicians. They try to play both sides. They are afraid of offending anyone. They don't take strong stands. They are risk averse. They don't put themselves out there to succeed...or fail. In short, they are afraid to be great.

Greatness does not follow when taking the easy road. It only graces those who are not afraid of the challenge on the hard road.

Success is never assured. Trump may fail "bigly" with North Korea. However, give him credit where credit is due. He is not afraid to be great. That in itself is a rare commodity. Keep that in mind as you listen to those who criticize Trump.

Of course, any risk that Trump is taking on in these negotiations is probably far less in comparison to what Kim Jong Un is undertaking. When you are a dictator or despot the status quo is your friend. As Kim makes a move for rapprochement with the United States and the West he is putting something in motion he may not be able to control or contain.

The overarching risk is that his people get a whiff of freedom and begin to see how much others have that they do not. Once that genie gets out of the bottle it is difficult to get it back in. We certainly saw how that played out in the former Soviet Union and other Soviet bloc countries a generation ago.

You must remember that Kim got his position for no other reason than he inherited it. His grandfather and father who ruled before him retained power by brute force. The same is said to be true with Kim. Kim Jong Un reportedly had both his uncle and his half-brother killed because he feared they were plotting to overthrow him.

There are sure to be those within the North Korean military and government who are not happy with what Kim is up to. Just last week it was reported that Kim Jong Un had removed his three top military officials from their posts in advance of the Singapore summit.

Mintaro Oba, a former US diplomat who focused on North Korea policy, said Kim might be using the upcoming summit “as leverage to get rid of internal hardliners”. It was also possible the “summit created such a risk to his internal power he felt he had to protect himself by moving people around”.

It is always hard to know what is going on with North Korea. That is why it is so hard to predict where all of this will end up.

However, my guess is Kim Jong Un has calculated that the risk he is taking with Trump is smaller than the risk of continuing sanctions, his people starving and the fact that China may not be as willing to overlook the "Rocket Man's" antics as it has in the past.


The Korean Peninsula at night
How much longer are the North Korean people willing to live in darkness?
Credit: Planetobserver


It is entirely possible that Kim Jong Un is making a bet that he can bail himself out of his troubles and make himself a hero to his people in his own right if he can pull this off.

Then again, perhaps he is merely playing Trump like the North Koreans have done countless times before.

If that is the case Kim may also be taking his biggest risk of all. I don't think that Donald Trump will take kindly to being played.

Keep all of this mind as we watch how this plays out between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un. The deal may fall apart. North Korea not walk the walk after all the talk. Trump may walk away in the end if he thinks he is being played.

However, for now it is a historic moment. It remains to be seen if it will become a great moment in history.

But we would not have gotten here without two men who were at least not afraid to be great.

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