Blue Wave or Red Wall?

Will we see a blue wave in the midterm elections with scores of Democrats being swept into office based on voter dissatisfaction with Donald Trump?

Or will we see a red wall of Republicans and Independents turn out to defend the Trump agenda in November?

The media and most political pundits seem to think that the Democrats have the numbers and energy to put Trump on the defensive.

Let's take a BeeLine look at the political landscape heading towards the midterms.

Midterm elections are traditionally challenging for the incumbent President's party.

In the last 20 midterm elections (dating back to 1938) there have only been two times that the incumbent party gained House seats (1998 and 2002). The average loss of House seats in a midterm election is 33.

There have only been four times in the last 80 years that the President's party has picked up seats in the Senate. The average loss of seats in the Senate over the other 16 midterm election cycles has been 5.5.

History suggests that it will be difficult for Republicans to avoid losses in the midterm elections. If these historical averages are to hold in 2018, the GOP would find themselves in the minority in both the House and Senate. Donald Trump would also find himself even more under siege in Washington, D.C.

Why do midterms present such a problem to the incumbent President's party?

I believe it is a result of several factors.

National Presidential elections have higher voter turn out and bring out more casual voters and independents.

Midterm elections are more partisan. You tend to get more voters by party affiliation. They are more hard core in their politics.

Voters are also more partisan when their person is not in The White House. Those in the party that is out of power are more motivated to send a message to the guy in The White House. Those with their guy in power are more complacent. You also typically see some disillusionment by voters two years into a President's term. The results have not matched the promises. This disenchantment causes loss of support and votes for the President's agenda among his own party faithful.

One of the interesting facts about the Presidency of Barack Obama was that he won two elections comfortably but he suffered devastating losses in both of his midterm elections.

Democrats lost 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010.

Democrats lost another 16 House seats and 9 additional Senate seats in 2014.

Barack Obama assumed the Presidency with overwhelming majorities in the House and Senate in 2009. GOP majorities were in place in both Houses when he left.

Obama was not able to translate his electoral success to success for his party in the midterms.

A big reason for this was that a lot of Obama's voters came from casual voters of which large numbers are young voters. They voted for Obama. A lot of them did not bother to vote at all in the midterms. This chart shows how the percentage of voters age 18-29 surged in 2008 and 2012 but fell off dramatically in the midterms in 2010 and 2014.

On the other hand, those age 60+ typically vote in every election. This group is also more likely to vote Republican. You can see what this translates into in pure numbers in this chart that shows actual votes cast by those 18-29 compared to those age 60+ during the Obama years.

Similar patterns existed with African American voters. In 2008 and 2012 Obama got 16 million African American votes. In 2010 and 2014 only about 9 million African Americans bothered to vote at all in the midterms.

All of this is why I have written consistently in these pages over the years that turnout is everything in an election. If you can get your people to vote, you will win. If they stay home, you will lose.

Looking at three of the high profile special elections we have had over the last year suggests that the GOP has an enormous turnout problem this year.

In the Alabama special election for the Senate, Democrat Doug Jones got 92% of the vote total that Hillary Clinton did. The GOP candidate, Roy Moore, only 50% received of the votes that Trump got.

In the 18th Pennsylvania House special election, Democrat Conor Lamb got 80% of Hillary's vote total. The GOP candidate, Rick Saccone, got only 53% of Trump's total.

In the 12th Ohio House special election, Democrat Danny Connor garnered 90% of Clinton's vote in the 2016 election. Troy Balderson, the Republican who won by a small margin, only tallied 72% of Trump's margins.

Do you see a pattern?

The Democrats appear motivated to vote. The Republicans are sitting at home.

Turnout is everything.

It seems pretty clear that there will be a blue wave of sorts in November if we look at the voter turnout in these special elections.

However, the Republicans can defend their majorities if they can get their red wall high enough to protect against that expected voter surge.

A big question remains as to whether those Trump voters are necessarily GOP voters. Like Obama, Trump seems to have a unique appeal to certain voters. A lot of his votes did not come from traditional Republican voters. He appealed to a lot of Independents and he got many blue collar Democrat votes as well. Will these voters turn out to defend the Trump agenda?

Whether a red wall materializes in November may depend on the answer.

However, those voters should understand that the Democrats and the deep state have no interest in doing anything to further the Trump agenda. They have only one goal---to remove Donald J. Trump from Washington, D.C. to never be heard from again.

Any success by Trump simply represents too much risk for the Democrats as a party.

Trump voters in 2016 should understand that if they want that vote for Trump to truly count for something, they must also be counted on to vote again in 2018 to defend the Trump agenda.

If not, we are all in for a very long and loud two years.