The fact that the Democrats ended up winning the Arizona Senate seat has some arguing that President Trump's immigration views (building a wall, ending chain migration, establishing stricter asylum rules etc.) was somehow a key reason for this loss and the close results in Texas, Florida and Georgia.
Even some Republicans argued that Trump should have spent more time bragging about his economic accomplishments and less time on immigration.
However, exit polls of voters shows that immigration is still a very strong issue for Trump. It was even a stronger issue in the four states mentioned above.
This is from the CNN exit poll's national sample of almost 19.000 voters.
50% agree that Trump's immigration policies are about right or not tough enough compared to 46% who think they are too tough.
Bear in mind, this is not asking people about current law, this is asking people if they were in agreement with Trump's far stricter views on immigration than we currently have.
As I have stated before, if you want to know the one issue that really put Trump on the road to The White House, it is this one.
Notice also that those that agree with Trump on this issue voted Republican 85% of the time. At the same time, of those who thought Trump was being too tough in his views on immigration, 90% voted Democrat.
It is even more interesting to look at this issue in those key swing states I mentioned above.
In Arizona, voters are with Trump on immigration 57%-36%.
In Florida, voters are with Trump on immigration 54%-41%.
In Georgia, voters are with Trump on immigration 60%-35%.
In Texas, voters are with Trump on immigration 52%-43%.
What is interesting in this data is that these are all key swing states that also have large immigrant populations. However, even considering this, immigration is still a very strong issue for Trump and the Republicans.
Here are some other key swing states looking to 2020.
In Ohio, voters are with Trump on immigration 58%-38%.
Even in Nevada, another state with a large population of immigrants, a solid majority supports Trump 51%-46% on immigration
You might ask how can the national numbers be only 4 points favorable towards Trump's views on immigration when looking at the individual states above.
You need to look no further than California for that answer. Only 38% of voters agree with Trump on immigration in that state.
What about the national economy as an issue?
Why didn't it matter more in those House races in particular?
It seems that if you are a Democrat the economy looks bleak merely because Trump is President. Likewise, the economy seems to looks good to most Republicans exactly because Trump is President.
17% of voters think that the national economy is excellent, 87% voted for the Republican.
30% of the voters view the national economy as "not so good" or "poor". They voted for the Democrats 84% of the time.
Those that thought the economy was "good" tilted slightly to the GOP.
What do I take from this?
Expect President Trump to not moderate his views on immigration leading up to 2020.
He is likely to push the Democrat Congress hard on this issue as he no doubt understands the polling and popularity of his policies---especially in the key swing states I mentioned above which will determine the electoral college votes in 2020. Trump clearly will want the Democrats to be shown to be on the far left on this issue defending open borders and the abolition of ICE.
One interesting fact to consider.
California Democrats will make up almost 1 out of every 5 members of the House of Representatives in the next Congress. They will have an inordinate influence on the Democrat caucus with those numbers.
In fact, the California delegation of Democrats alone is more than all of the House members combined from 34 other states.
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| http://mehlmancastagnetti.com/wp-content/uploads/Split-Decision-2018Midterms.pdf |
153 of a projected 232 House Democrats (66%) will come exclusively from the East or West Coasts.
This all provides better context on why we will hear more and more Democrats complaining about how unfair the electoral college is and why it is even more unfair for Wyoming or Delaware to have as many Senators as California.
All of the above should give you a better perspective on why the Founders were so brilliant in designing the governmental system they did. They were deeply concerned about concentrations of power forming majorities that would run roughshod over minority views and rights.
It was never intended to be The Coastal States of America. Or The Large Cities of America. Let it never be forgotten that our Founders named the country The United STATES of America for a reason.
We can see the wisdom of that thinking even more with each passing day.
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